Market Analysis: How to. Execute This Trade // MSTRNASDAQ:MSTR
Over the past 2-3 months, MicroStrategy Incorporated (MSTR) has shown significant growth, primarily driven by the rise in Bitcoin’s value. The company holds a substantial amount of Bitcoin on its balance sheet, which strongly influences its stock price performance.
Key Highlights:
1. Stock Performance:
• As of now, MSTR trades at $379.09, reflecting a notable increase over recent months.
• Its strong performance correlates with the upward trend in Bitcoin prices.
2. Technical Analysis:
• The stock recently broke out of a rectangle pattern, signaling a potential rise toward
the $525 level.
• However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates overbought conditions,
suggesting the possibility of a short-term pullback.
3. Analyst Opinions:
• Analysts remain optimistic, with a consensus of “Buy” or “Overweight.”
• The average price target is above the current trading level, pointing to further upside
potential.
Considerations:
While MSTR has been performing robustly, it’s important to note the volatility associated with its heavy exposure to Bitcoin. Investors should weigh the risks tied to both the stock and the broader cryptocurrency market.
How to execute this trade:
We notice how the upward trend seems to have temporarily stopped, giving way to a bearish phase. The stock remains highly overvalued and very volatile, so a drop of 40–50% does not necessarily indicate a long-term trend reversal but simply a pause in a bull run that has been ongoing since 2022!
On November 11, the stock experienced a rise of 23% in a single day, leaving a gap open.
Subsequently, the rise was accompanied by a 97% increase in just 13 days, followed by a bearish phase, a lateral phase, another bearish phase, and now a rebound. We could even consider the last two movements as a new lateral zone.
Now, let’s analyze the movements of the stock in the most recent highlighted period in greater detail.
We observe that, after breaking below the lateral range, the stock formed a well-defined downward channel. We obviously had two choices: to take advantage of the lateral zone by going both long and short:
Respectively: 430–450 Short & 360–350 Long. However, this was a rather complex trade because the lateral range was very wide and volatile (34%).
The second option was to wait for a long entry. The gap in this case is an excellent buying zone; in many cases, gaps need to be filled, and when this happens, they provide great opportunities. In this particular case, we are talking about a gap that triggered a 97% rise, so the chances of a rebound are very high.
Using the Bar Replay, we see that initially the stock approaches our entry zone but doesn’t enter, closing slightly above it.
This means we need to remain vigilant in the following days and monitor for a good entry opportunity.
The next day, the stock rises by 8%—our hopes for a trade begin to waver, and we risk succumbing to FOMO. However, the only way to be consistently profitable is to always follow the plan. Always!
Later, the stock drops, granting us an entry. In hindsight, it’s easy to say, “I would have entered here,” but this would have been a challenging trade because the gap was only partially filled and for a short time. A correct entry should have been between 286 and 276.
We notice that the entry was very difficult and quick—so let’s assume we didn’t manage to enter . The next day, the stock opens with a significant upward gap (3.4%).
At this point, we have two signals: the stock touched our zone and began to rise, and the buying zone was a previous gap. Now, the stock opens again with a gap, signaling that these opportunities are often leveraged to push the stock upward.
We adjust our entry a bit higher, giving the trade more room to breathe since the previous setup didn’t work out.
In this case, we carefully observe the downward trendline above us and use it as a signal to exit the trade or reduce the position size to limit losses. If it’s not broken, we know what to do.
We let the trade run and see how the trendline is broken, followed by a very strong upward move that brings us to profit in just two sessions.
This is “How to Execute This Trade.”
MSTR trade ideas
Big Bets Coming In, Negative Gamma Clusters Here We Come!I have been waiting to call this one for months. Predicted the downfall of MSTR and now I want a dead cat bounce or short term rally again.
After large positions and option contract plays are placed/bought, it can take time for the bottom to form and the price to move. I can see potential downside to $290-$289 and then we bounce ORRRRRR if we break through 290-289 with strong downside, next target is $262.
IF WE LOSE 290, its very very bad for the stock longer term.
First target is $320
Second target is $340
MSTR Trend TestIt looked like MSTR might go all the way down to fill the gap near $270, but not quite. Strong recovery and a reclaim of $371. Will be looking to open some longer term puts on this if it goes up for a test of the trendline above that started in November.
Looks like a good setup and there would be tight risk on the entry if it hits, not gonna stick around on this one if it were to break after entering. I'd be more inclined to hold longer term puts on a weaker stock, but not this one for now. It still has quite a ways to go, but this thing moves fast so we'll see.
Market Close Update: MSTR Long PlayMSTR had a strong bounce off the $300 Price Levels of Support in it's last trading session, with it contiinuing to push higher going into the Pre-Market Session/Intraday Session, gaining another $29.24/share by Market Close at $379.09. A total of $33+ at it's Intraday High. $378.40 was a previous Level of Support so really interested to see how it reacts to those levels going into to Tomorrow's Market Open. Looking to see if that previous support turns into resistance, providing another opportunity to buy-in on a potential buy-in around the $349.99 Levels. With Bitcoin is back above $100K, sitting at $102,054 but potentially retesting $100K again, could also encourage another opportunity to get in on MSTR. Buy Limit set with a Stop Loss of $347.38 on this trade and a Price Target of $415.68.
Follow us to stay tuned for even more at MyMI Wallet! @MyMIWallet #MyMIWallet
MSTR - Ponzi Loop Will Crash & BurnEvery now and then, I like to say that greed eats brains for breakfast. In the case of MSTR, though, it seems to have state approval to do so. How else could MSTR still be kicking?
There’s nothing to chart here. Nada. Zip. This is pure pump-and-dump economics born out of the "perfect storm" of circumstances.
Fast money? Sure, it's fast—but definitely not sustainable. It’s also a foolproof recipe for losing not just your shirt, but your pants and maybe even your dignity. Remember GME and all the other “get rich quick” lemming programs? Only a microscopic percentage actually "got rich," and an even tinier fraction stayed rich. Most of them? Just cautionary tales with a hefty dose of regret. Sorry, gamblers… err, "investors." §8-)
Instead of betting the farm on people like Michael Saylor, how about this revolutionary idea: use your own brain. Learn chart analysis, develop real skills, and slowly build up a nest egg that’ll still be around when you’re old and gray.
But hey, who am I to judge?
MSTR SHORT until 0.0001
MicroStrategy (MSTR): Bullish Outlook for Next Week
- Key Insights: MicroStrategy's strong Bitcoin holdings continue to drive its
stock's performance, making it a speculative investment. Investor sentiment
is cautiously optimistic, driven by Bitcoin price recovery prospects.
However, the volatility associated with Bitcoin means that MSTR could
experience significant price fluctuations. Investors should keep an eye on
Bitcoin’s price dynamics, as it will likely dictate MSTR’s performance.
- Price Targets: Next week targets are T1 = $375, T2 = $390. Stop levels set at
S1 = $290, S2 = $270. This setup indicates potential for growth, adhering to
the price level rules for long positions while also providing protective
measures against downside risks.
- Recent Performance: MSTR's stock has shown high volatility recently,
fluctuating with Bitcoin's price. The stock’s correlation with
cryptocurrency trends makes it a barometer for market sentiment and trading
activity in the sector. Recent price movements have suggested resilience
amidst fluctuating market conditions.
- Expert Analysis: Experts remain divided on MSTR, with some expressing concerns
about the downside risk if Bitcoin sees a significant downturn, potentially
dropping MSTR below $100. However, others believe MSTR’s strategic plan,
particularly its robust Bitcoin acquisition strategy, underpins a bullish
outlook towards the company’s future valuation as Bitcoin recovers.
- News Impact: Noteworthy developments include MicroStrategy's continued Bitcoin
purchases and strategic financial maneuvers like leveraging Bitcoin-backed
securities. The anticipated inclusion in the NASDAQ 100 may enhance investor
confidence and further boost MSTR's market presence, drawing additional
attention from institutional investors.
MicroStrategy - HAMMER TIME - Purely TechnicalComments:
For me, MicroStrategy is a purely technical and seems to track bitcoin more than its underlying product. It reach the year 2000's all-time highs.
Technicals:
Weekly Zoomed In:
Weekly hammer with volume at the 50%-61.8% fib level
Weekly Zoomed Out:
All-time highs
5EMAs strategy
RM KJ Trend Bounce
ADX extra confirmation
Bounce from horizontals support of the year 2000 all-time highs.
Targets: 800ish by June 2025
MSTR short: wave 3 of 3I've purposely kept the risk very tight. The alternate count to this is that the entire correction is done and instead of wave 1 of 3, it's actually a C wave. The other alternate count is that wave 2 of 3 is NOT complete, but then it's too hard to predict wave 2 (can retrace back to start of wave 1 of 3). Thus, I this that by using the current wave 1 end (black number), it will serve as a good stock to try a short with a small risk.
$MSTR appears to have broken the downtrendStill not 100% confirmed yet.
Price action dipped into the gap, although i would have liked to of seen a bit more time ~$275 to confirm
That would have shown a strong bounce off the .618 Fib as well, so I’m still bit skeptical.
It is very good that MSTR had a full 50% retracement tho from this move up.
I’m expecting it to range sideways at least for a few more days to confirm.
Volume has flipped bullish to suggest a trend reversal.
RSI fully reset to beginning of move.
Price closed above the EMA 9 & 21.
EMA 9 still has not crossed 21, so more hesitation.
Bulls need to step up BIG here for the Weekly Close.
MicroStrategy (MSTR) 1-3NASDAQ:MSTR
🔥 LucanInvestor’s Commands:
🩸 Resistance: $363.00. A breakout targets $380 and $400, marking a strong recovery zone.
🩸 Support: $328.00. A breakdown exposes $300 and $280 as critical downside levels.
🔥 LucanInvestor’s Strategy:
🩸 Long: Above $363.00, aiming for $380 and $400. Watch for strong volume to confirm the breakout.
🩸 Short: Below $328.00, targeting $300 and $280. Weakness at this level could accelerate selling pressure.
🩸 MicroStrategy has rebounded from key support near its 200 EMA, and MACD is starting to turn bullish, indicating potential recovery. However, seasonality and the recent 10.62% drop over the past month suggest caution at resistance levels. YTD gains of 179.44% highlight the stock's long-term strength.
👑 "Resilience at key levels defines the path to recovery. Stay alert for confirmation." — LucanInvestor
MSTR Fib Pitch FanNASDAQ:MSTR
This Fib Pitch Fan really shows the high touch points and low consolidation points. You can see that candle with a high of $543 in November 2024 and then consolidation follows in the blue zone to the green zone we are currently in. Looking back to March 2024, that candle with a high of $200 touches that green line and bounces into consolidation, similarly to what just happen in November of 2024. Volatility is increasing and bullish momentum is here.
Looking at this green zone we are currently in you can we can have a candle with a low of $285.01 and it did not want to break the line below the candle, bounced right from that line.
We can see this stock getting back to the blue zone above the green zone we are in, making the way back to the highs. Going to that new green zone and moving above the blue zone, can make new highs for the stock.
This chart is posted on X.
Check links on profile.
Comment what you think about this chart.
Comment any tips or suggestions.
NASDAQ:MSTR COINBASE:BTCUSD
MSTR...up to 320ish, but then back down to where it belongsBuying BTC with debt, what could ever go wrong with that strategy! MSTR is enjoying this nice "mini" upswing, but let's not forget that if you zoom out it's not a very perilous journey downhill. You've been warned and hope that I'm wrong, but there are too many things that potentially could go wrong and the price will reflect that soon. Don't get caught in the FOMO!
Best of luck and always do your own DD!
MSTR - The Saylor in the Storm!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈MSTR has been overall bullish trading within the rising channel marked in blue. (log chart)
Currently, it is in a correction phase within the falling red channel.
Moreover, the red zone is a strong demand.
🏹 Thus, the highlighted blue circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of demand and lower trendlines acting as non-horizontal support.
📚 As per my trading style:
As #MSTR approaches the blue circle, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
MSTR Lower strength on bullish movement as 2024 march pick and 2021 first all time high, usually MSTR used to trend direction a couple months before BTC. It is possible to see higher prices on BTC and cryptocurrencies, however MSTR could be overvalued and we could see lower prices making lower highs in the process.
Analyzing MicroStrategy's Price Action & Impulse Wave FormationGreetings Everyone,
Happy New Year! To kick off the year with momentum, I've revisited and updated the MSTR chart for fresh insights.
Not financial advice
MicroStrategy (MSTR) is a leading business intelligence and analytics company, well-known for its significant investments in Bitcoin. Its stock price is closely tied to both its core business and Bitcoin's performance, making it an
exciting watch for 2025.
Key Levels:
Near term key levels are highlighted in orange.
Overthrow : A concept in EW theory that explains the momentous break of a uptrend channel which then reverses strongly in the opposite direction often indicating buyer weakness.
Notice the 47.88% draw down since this overthrown candle.
Wishing you all a prosperous year ahead and a fantastic day!
Best regards,
CL