MSTRD trade ideas
Go Long on MSTR: Bitcoin Correlation Presents Opportunity
-Key Insights: MicroStrategy's strategy of using leveraged positions to invest
in Bitcoin provides a unique investment angle for those seeking exposure to
cryptocurrency without direct involvement. This strategy poses risks due to
Bitcoin's inherent volatility, but it also presents opportunities for gains when
Bitcoin prices rise. Investors should keep an eye on Bitcoin's market movements
as they directly affect MSTR's stock price, creating potential entry points for
informed traders.
-Price Targets: For a long position on MSTR, consider the following: Next week
targets (T1, T2): T1 at $305, T2 at $320.49. Stop levels (S1, S2): S1 at $290,
S2 at $285. These levels take into account current market support and
resistance, suggesting a strategic plan to benefit from potential upward
momentum if MSTR aligns with Bitcoin's bullish trends.
-Recent Performance: MSTR has shown a tight link to Bitcoin, with stock
performance rising and falling in tandem with Bitcoin's price swings. This
correlation has led to mixed short-term sentiment as investors evaluate the
cryptocurrency market's stability. The current price of $297.4899902 places it
between the identified support and resistance zones, making it a critical
decision point for upcoming trades.
-Expert Analysis: Experts remain divided on MSTR due to its high leverage, with
some cautioning against indirect exposure to Bitcoin through the stock. However,
proponents of the stock argue that its strategy provides a diversified approach
to participating in the cryptocurrency market without direct investment in
Bitcoin, offering potential advantages in portfolio diversification.
-News Impact: Recent market discussions highlight MSTR's strategic Bitcoin
acquisitions and their impact on stock volatility. The company's financial
maneuvers and significant shareholder interests may further influence investor
sentiment. Future Bitcoin price trends will likely dictate MSTR's performance,
making cryptocurrency developments a vital aspect to monitor in the coming weeks
for informed trading decisions.
MSTR...tik tok and BOOOM down 10-20%It's just a matter of time IMHO, most likely tomorrow / next few days, when MSTR will drop like a brick. The fact that anyone is buying this is just bonkers; they buy high volatile BTC with debt. What could ever go wrong with this Ponzi scheme? You've been warned about this house of cards. Great if you're leveraging MSTZ!
Best of luck and be careful out there....
MSTR Trading Plan - Bounce then new lows to key year 2000 levelMSTR has a lot going on. I think we're going to see the chart build structure in this low volume top and ultimately retrace to important levels made in the year 2000. Specifically, $177.
The $177 Price level has so many points of confluence it boggles the mind:
$177 is the exact 61.8 retraca from the 2023 low of $13
$177 is the very strong resistance we saw in the first half of 2024
$177 is a key level from way back in the year 2000 (yes, MSTR was this high. In fact it hit a high of $336 way back then)
$177 is also where the current lower trendline (log chart) and the 61.8 and the lower trendlien of the current wedge intersect.
What do you think?
Saylor: The Bubble Man Saylor The Bubble Man
MicroStrategy (MSTR) – A stock that only shines in bubbles, then burns its holders.
1999 Dot-Com Hype:
MSTR skyrocketed in the late 90s, purely on dot-com speculation. But after aggressive accounting was exposed, it crashed over 90%.
Saylor paid fines, survived – investors didn't.
2021 Bitcoin Mania:
Saylor rebrands as Bitcoin maximalist. MSTR stock pumps as Bitcoin pumps. MicroStrategy stops being a software company and starts being a leveraged Bitcoin ETF in disguise.
Result? Bitcoin cools, MSTR drops over 75%.
2024 ETF Bubble:
Bitcoin ETFs approved, retail hype returns. MicroStrategy issues more debt, doubles down, and rallies hard.
Already down 50% from highs – the pattern repeats.
In between these periods? Nothing. No meaningful growth. No shareholder returns. Just silence until the next bubble.
The Playbook:
Max leverage.
Max hype.
Assured promises about the future justifying all present risks.
Saylor promotes it not just inside his company, but publicly to anyone willing to listen.
Outcome:
Always the same.
Retail buys into the story.
The bubble bursts.
Investors hold the bag.
Saylor resets and waits for the next mania.
History is clear: Saylor doesn’t manage a business; he manages cycles of hype.
Saylor is the Bubble Man.
====
The Bubble Man: Michael Saylor and the Art of Leverage, Hype, and Hollow Returns
Saylor’s career can be accurately described as a cyclical showcase of hype-fueled rallies followed by spectacular busts.
Each surge is orchestrated through deft salesmanship, aggressive leverage, and promises of assured future riches—and each collapse leaves behind little more than shattered shareholder value and a fresh narrative to mask the wreckage. The one Saylor has always done, is promise exceptional gains in the future.
The only time people ever listen, is when the hype of the day supports it.
MicroStrategy: A Company That Rises Only on Hype
A closer inspection of MicroStrategy’s performance history reveals a striking pattern: the company’s stock only shines during the most frothy moments of speculative mania. Strip away these isolated periods, and what remains is a tech firm that has consistently underperformed, failed to deliver long-term operational gains, and leaned heavily on financial engineering and bold proclamations.
1999: The Dot-Com Mirage
MicroStrategy first burst onto the scene during the late 1990s dot-com bubble, riding high on the wave of anything remotely tech-related. Its share price exploded, reaching dizzying heights, only to collapse after revelations of aggressive accounting (culminating in a high-profile SEC settlement in 2000). Investors who bought the hype saw over 90% losses after the bubble popped, while Saylor survived by shifting the narrative and paying fines without criminal consequence.
2021: The Bitcoin Mania
Fast-forward two decades, and Saylor’s next big gamble came—not from the company’s original software business—but from pivoting MicroStrategy into a quasi-Bitcoin ETF, heavily buying Bitcoin using borrowed funds. Once again, the timing was impeccable: MicroStrategy stock surged in 2020-2021, attracting retail frenzy during the Bitcoin bull run. However, as soon as crypto markets cooled, MSTR shares plummeted over 75% from their highs, leaving investors to absorb the fallout while Saylor doubled down on his maximalist rhetoric.
2024: The ETF Echo Bubble
Today, in 2025, MicroStrategy is basking in yet another speculative surge, this time driven by Bitcoin ETF approvals and renewed crypto enthusiasm. Predictably, the company has used this window to issue more convertible debt, expanding its leveraged Bitcoin bet. However, just months into the rally, the stock has already retraced 50% from recent highs, repeating the same cycle. No meaningful growth has come from MicroStrategy's core business; all attention is once again focused on price speculation.
In response to this Saylor goes to his usual of hyping future gains and promoting people take wreck less risks. This guy has a massive following. Some of these people will obviously be naive and easily influenced and he's made statements ranging from selling your house to selling body parts to speculate in BTC.
The Playbook: Leverage + Salesmanship + Assured Future Promises
At the heart of each of these cycles is Saylor himself—a master promoter whose public persona is equal parts financial evangelist and charismatic pitchman. His message is consistent:
"Ignore short-term volatility."
"The future payoff is inevitable."
"Leverage risk is justified if you believe hard enough."
Not only does Saylor employ this approach with MicroStrategy’s own balance sheet—loading up on debt to fund speculative moves—but he publicly encourages others to follow suit, telling both individuals and institutions to embrace extreme risk under the guise of inevitable exponential returns.
This philosophy sounds eerily familiar to every bubble narrative ever told: risk doesn’t matter, because tomorrow’s gains will make it all worthwhile. Of course, for most investors, tomorrow rarely arrives as promised.
The Aftermath: What Happens When the Music Stops
History offers no ambiguity about the result:
The 1999 hype ended in collapse and accounting scandal.
The 2021 hype ended in massive drawdowns and underperformance.
The 2024 hype, already cracking, is shaping up no differently.
Each time, retail investors, lured in by Saylor’s conviction and bravado, bear the brunt of the losses, while MicroStrategy simply reloads, restructures debt, and awaits the next speculative wave.
Conclusion: The Bubble Man
Michael Saylor is not a visionary leader crafting sustainable shareholder value. He is, instead, the quintessential Bubble Man—a figure who thrives during periods of irrational exuberance, skillfully weaving narratives of certainty and future wealth while encouraging dangerous levels of leverage and risk. His company’s stock has consistently done nothing outside of speculative episodes, and the wreckage following each hype cycle is always left at the feet of those who bought into the story.
The question investors must now ask is not whether MicroStrategy will see another bubble—it’s how many more people will be willing to pay the price for it when it inevitably bursts again.
MSTR - Leading Indicator For Crypto and Stock IndexesLooks like it may be a leading indicator for crypto yet again.
Bitcoin is often first to breakout from corrections.
But in the previous correction MSTR broke out sooner and stronger than Bitcoin.
This is because MSTR is effectively a leveraged Bitcoin stock.
And so it is higher risk.
Higher risk assets tend to make their move first both in bullish and bearish action.
...
MSTR pumped 13% today and that has printed a very strong close to the week chart.
It now appears to have a good chance to be completing a 1:0.618 Golden Window extension.
Since the third wave is shorter, it signals weakness to the downside and thus momentum building to the upside.
Notice only the wicks have probed below the 0.786 overshoot ratio.
This is still very much fine for it to be considered a 1:0.618 GW since the market maker will push to ratio extremity and no candle bodies closed below.
...
The last 3 candles have printed an exotic Morning Star candle pattern.
It really doesn't matter what type of doji prints for candle 2...
All the matters is that it is an indecision candle and that candles 1 and 3 form a bullish engulf.
And that is what has printed; it looks to be a strong bullish engulf with candle 3 printing a lower wick.
The bullish whipsaw in candle 3 signals upside impetus.
So this is quite a bullish look here.
...
This chart signals that the storm has passed and we can resume the BBQ 😅♨️.
This is in stark contrast to stock indexes that still look dangerous.
But this is where we can get our cues from higher risk to achieve great positional entries.
- MSTR is higher risk than Bitcoin and so potentially it is a leading indicator to Bitcoin.
- Bitcoin is higher risk than the stock indexes and so potentially it is a leading indicator to stock indexes.
Until stock indexes begin to recover then this is of course dangerous...
But in a matter of hours this is now looking good here for a next wave up 👍.
I do this all day every day 🙈
Not advice.
Buckle Up Butter CupMSTR contrast with MS Global Liquidity advanced 55 days shows possible upside in May-June. Daily RSI bullish divergence seems to support.
MSTR will rise and fall in quick succession MSTR I believe, will rise to approx $320 in the coming couple weeks, then crash to $200 in quick succession. Possibly even breaking the bottom trend line to fall even farther. History repeating itself…
Strategic $MSTR Accumulation: $340 Break for Macro ContinuationDecided to start buying back some $MSTR. I’ve been waiting since late December to begin accumulating, and I initially thought it would stay above $300, forcing me to jump back in.
Now that it's in an optimal buy area with enough confluence on the weekly timeframe, I’m accumulating under $250. I’ll add the last chunk once it breaks above $340.
Just keep in mind there’s a strong weekly downtrend in play, but it’s already hit the first target, so I expect a bounce. If it reclaims the POC at $340, it would invalidate the downtrend. So, I'm taking my chances on a possible invalidation and a continuation of the macro trend.
Headed down to the 1:1.618?MicroStrategy has been the leading indicator for Bitcoin for quite sometime now; as well as TOTAL.
It ran into some resistance at the 0.618 window on the 4th wave up.
In terms of Elliot Wave, typically there are 5 connective waves inside each wave of a 3 wave correction. This is not always the case but sometimes it can provide potential clues.
If I am reading the waves correctly; then MSTR may be forming the 5th wave down. And quite often the 5th wave is a doozie.
If this TA plays out and MSTR finds support at the 1:618 pocket; then this could be the completion of a 1:1.618 3 wave correction on a larger time frame.
-Not Financial Advice-
MicroStrategy - Wave D Since 2002 Just Completed...AriasWave analysis indicates that MicroStrategy, now known as Strategy, is poised for a sharp decline reminiscent of the Dot-Com Bust era.
The anticipated drop in Wave E is expected to coincide with a significant downturn in broader indexes and cryptocurrencies.
Additionally, my latest Bitcoin analysis, set to be released later this week, suggests that Bitcoin has finally peaked, and a price collapse is only a matter of time.
Huge Cup & Handle Hey guys,
Look at this huge and nice pattern, it will take price to around 2600 $.
MSTR | Back to 120s / Double Digits | FractalPrice action blew off to a high around $540 and since then closed back under the historical close.
The goal here is to see price action consolidate under resistance in the preparation for a major sell-off
To invalidate all of this I would like to see more of an accumulation pattern back above major resistance, but if we see an increase in aggressive selling then price will be hunting for at least $120.
Price action also looked a bit familiar to the 2021 sell-off with the same blow-off-top and a ABC pattern breakdown
After the C sell-off price retraced back to B and then finally flushed out back to major support
Current price action has pretty much done the first phase and we should expect some consolidation before the next big move.
Could Be Bottoming!Some bullish divergence is showing up on the 1 hour chart. If the bottom is in, then the divergence should start showing up on longer time frames. We shall see.
MSTR📊 MicroStrategy (NASDAQ: MSTR) – Technical & Simple Fundamental Analysis
1️⃣ Technical Analysis
🔍 Overall Trend Analysis
Long-term uptrend remains intact, but the stock is currently in a pullback phase from its $500 peak.
Testing 50-day EMA support ($238.91) – a key level for bulls to defend.
Short-term momentum is bearish, with declining RSI and a bearish MACD crossover.
📌 Key Levels
✅ Support Zones:
$230 - $240 → Testing 50-day EMA, crucial support.
$180 - $200 → Stronger demand zone if $230 fails.
$120 - $140 → Near 200-day EMA ($118.00), deeper correction level.
Below $120 → Supports at $100, $80, $60, $40 (historical levels).
🚀 Resistance Zones:
$280 - $300 → Immediate resistance after rejection.
$340 - $360 → Next resistance from recent peaks.
$420 - $500 → All-time high resistance.
📉 Indicators & Volume
📊 Moving Averages:
9-day EMA: $297.18 (short-term resistance).
20-day EMA: $297.58 (confirming short-term bearish trend).
50-day EMA: $238.91 (being tested as support).
200-day EMA: $118.00 (long-term uptrend remains intact).
📉 RSI (43.94) → Approaching oversold territory.
📉 MACD → Bearish crossover, showing downward momentum increasing.
📊 Volume → Selling volume increasing, but not extreme yet.
🔭 What to Watch Next (Technical)
✅ Bullish case: Price holds $230-$240 & reclaims $280.
⚠️ Bearish case: Break below $230 → Potential drop to $200 or lower.
2️⃣ Fundamental Analysis NASDAQ:MSTR (Simplified)
📌 Revenue: $57.53M (-3% YoY), Net Loss: -$670.8M in Q4 2024.
📌 Bitcoin Holdings: 478,740 BTC (~$45.1B market value, acquired for $31.1 billion).
📌 Capital Raising: Issuing $21B in preferred securities to fund further Bitcoin purchases.
📌 Stock Performance: Down last 3 months
📌 Workforce Cuts: Laid off 20.7% of employees in 2024.
📌 Rebranding: Now officially called "Strategy", symbolizing its Bitcoin-focused direction.
🔭 What to Watch Next (Fundamental)
✅ Bitcoin price movement – heavily influences MSTR.
✅ Earnings improvements – need to reduce losses.
✅ Institutional buying trends – support or sell-off?
🔥 Final Thoughts: MSTR is at a critical support zone. If Bitcoin remains strong, a bounce is possible. However, a breakdown below $230 could trigger deeper downside. 🚀📊
Can MicroStrategy Save Bitcoin's Destiny?MicroStrategy’s dramatic stock decline has become a bellwether for the broader digital asset market. As its share price plunges, the company’s deep ties to Bitcoin spotlight a precarious balance between corporate strategy and the volatility inherent in the crypto space. This unfolding scenario challenges investors to reconsider the intertwined fates of traditional finance and digital innovation.
The company’s approach to using Bitcoin as a primary treasury reserve has been revolutionary and risky. Aggressive accumulation strategies, including debt financing and Bitcoin-backed loans, have magnified the impact of market fluctuations. With critical support levels now under threat, the risk of forced asset sales looms large—an event that could cascade through the crypto ecosystem and undermine confidence in digital currencies.
Amid these challenges, MicroStrategy is also pursuing bold financing initiatives to stabilize its operations. Plans to raise $21 billion through a preferred stock offering signal a dual objective: securing necessary capital and further investing in Bitcoin. This move reflects an ongoing commitment to a Bitcoin-centric strategy, even as recent transactions have resulted in significant unrealized losses.
In parallel, the cryptocurrency landscape faces unprecedented headwinds from regulatory pressures, geopolitical tensions, and emerging technological vulnerabilities. Financial professionals are compelled to balance risk with opportunity, rethinking investment strategies amid an environment where innovation meets uncertainty at every turn.
The looming threat of quantum computing adds another layer of complexity. As quantum technologies advance, their potential to break current cryptographic standards—on which Bitcoin’s security fundamentally relies—poses a significant risk. Should quantum computers overcome encryption protocols like SHA-256, the very foundation of blockchain technology could be compromised, forcing the industry to adopt quantum-resistant measures rapidly. This challenge not only underscores the volatility of the digital asset market but also inspires a deeper exploration into safeguarding the future of decentralized finance.
MSTR burn baby burn....you've been warnedBTC keeps dropping and MSTR keeps dropping like a brick. I've been calling this out for months, and now it's a reality. Leverage MSTZ (inverse) to benefit from this situation. A lot of upside!!! 23% so far :)
All the best and always do your own due diligence!
Up to 329 until tomorrow then drop to 120 , my 2 centsThis channel is not providing individualized trading or investment advice, nor is it a banking service, brokerage service, trading service, investment service or money management service.
MicroStrategy (MSTR) at a Pivotal Level – What's Next?📊 Technical Analysis (TA) & GEX Breakdown 📊
Market Structure & Price Action:
* Trend: MSTR is consolidating after a strong bullish move but is testing a key support trendline.
* Resistance Zone: $320.94 – This level aligns with previous price action and a reversal zone.
* Support Levels: $285.10 (current bid) and $281.26 – If this zone breaks, downside risk increases.
* Volume & Momentum: Declining volume on pullback suggests a potential bounce, but buyers need to step in soon.
Indicators Overview:
* MACD: Slight bearish crossover, indicating potential short-term weakness.
* Stoch RSI: Oversold conditions, which may hint at a reversal if buying pressure increases.
GEX & Options Sentiment Analysis:
* Call Wall Resistance: $330 – A breakout above this level could trigger gamma squeezes.
* Highest GEX Call Resistance: $350 – A major level where dealers could hedge aggressively.
* Put Support Wall: $250 – If price breaks lower, this is a major defensive zone.
* Implied Volatility (IV): Elevated IV suggests high expected movement, favoring option sellers.
* Options Sentiment: 85.1% Calls Dominance – Bullish positioning, but needs follow-through.
Trade Outlook & Strategy:
* Bullish Scenario: Holding the $285 support and reclaiming $300+ could lead to a retest of $320-$330.
* Bearish Scenario: A breakdown below $280 may accelerate downside to the $250 support wall.
* Key Level to Watch: $290-$295 zone – a reclaim could fuel further momentum.
🚨 Final Thoughts:
MSTR is at a critical decision point. A hold above $285 could lead to an upward push, but failure risks testing lower support levels. Options data supports bullish flow, but price action needs to confirm. Trade cautiously and watch key levels closely.
📌 Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk appropriately. 🚀
Microstrategy ?????Well first off all a very strange concept being backuped as a company only by the value of the Bitcoin, but who cares I mean if Blackrock and the USA hold Bitcoin as an huge asset you can be sure its quite safe. But since its connected to the Bitcoin it goes down when the Bitcoin goes down which will be the case. Question is how much Bitcoin will fall for a retracement.
$MSTR 618 FIBONACCI STRIKES AGAINGave yall this AMAZING Fibonacci Setup 2 weeks ago
Drop a like and Ill share the next buy setup!
Bollinger Bands for Beginners: The Price Hug Explained!Confused by Bollinger Bands? In this quick video, I break it down in plain English—think of them as a stretchy envelope around stock prices! Learn how traders use them to spot highs, lows, and big moves, plus why they’re not a magic trick. Perfect for newbies!
MSTR Repeating Previous Patterns?NASDAQ:MSTR seems to seesaw with the 100MA and it is approaching the MA which should see the stock move up and touch the upper resistance of the wedge. Then the price falls below the MA100 and goes through an accumulation stage.
The increased news of a US Bitcoin reserve could help this move up. Lets set the target of $335
