Nio Accumulation pattern Nio USD looks to be in an accumulation pattern. Jump over creek in play right now. Next HTF expectation mapped on chart.
NIO trade ideas
NIO Stock Trades Below $5 Following Earnings ReportIn just three trading sessions, the stock of the Chinese electric vehicle company has dropped more than 14%, now hovering around $4.50 per share. The ongoing bearish move remains steady after the company reported a net loss of approximately $985 million and weaker-than-expected sales of $2.7 billion, compared to the $2.8 billion forecast. These disappointing results have fueled consistent selling pressure in recent hours.
New Lateral Range:
Recent price action has led to the formation of a sideways range, with resistance near $5.00 and support around $4.17. The recent bearish movement has pushed the stock to stabilize near the bottom half of this range, giving the current sideways formation more relevance, with no clear signs of a breakout in the short term.
MACD:
The MACD histogram continues to fluctuate near the neutral zero line, indicating that the average strength of recent moving averages is balanced, with no dominant directional bias in the short term. This suggests that the lateral formation may persist, keeping price movements neutral for now.
ADX:
However, it’s worth noting that the ADX line remains consistently above the 20 level, which may imply that recent price moves are gaining trend strength. If the ADX continues to rise above 20, this could reinforce the bearish momentum observed in recent sessions.
Key Levels:
$5.00 – Remains the most important resistance level , located at the top of the current range. Sustained moves above this level could mark the end of a long-term downtrend that has been in place since September 2024.
$4.53 – A key mid-range leve l, where the Ichimoku cloud and the 50- and 100-period moving averages converge. This may act as a neutral zone, where indecisive price action could continue, extending the current lateral formation.
$4.17 – Critical support level , aligned with the recent multi-month lows. A break below this level would signal a potential bearish breakout, possibly triggering a more aggressive downward trend in the short term.
By Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
Is $NIO ready to go up?Is NIO Ready to Go Up? Full Analysis & 5-Year Fair Value Projection
1. Technical Analysis:
• Moving Averages:
• 20-day EMA: $4.62
• 50-day EMA: $4.52
• Since NIO is trading above these levels (~$5.03), it suggests slight bullish momentum.
• However, a strong breakout requires a close above $6.00 (200-day EMA).
• RSI (Relative Strength Index): 57.65 (neutral).
• ADX (Trend Strength): 17.74, meaning weak trend.
• Support & Resistance Levels:
• Support: $4.00 – If NIO holds above this, it could stabilize.
• Resistance: $5.80 – If it breaks, an uptrend may start.
Conclusion:
• Short-term trend: Neutral to slightly bullish.
• Breakout needed above $6.00 to confirm an uptrend.
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2. Fundamental Analysis:
• Revenue (2023): $7.6 billion, expected to reach ~$10 billion in 2025.
• Net Loss (2023): $2.4 billion, meaning not profitable yet.
• Gross Margin: ~5% (Tesla: 17-20%).
• Cash Reserves: $4.3 billion, but frequent share dilution is a risk.
• Expansion: Growing in Europe, but competition from Tesla, BYD, XPeng.
Conclusion:
• Growth potential exists, but profitability remains a challenge.
• Cash burn & dilution are key risks.
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3. Macroeconomic & Industry Factors
• China’s EV Market: Largest in the world but highly competitive.
• US-China Relations: Potential trade barriers for Chinese EVs.
• Battery Prices: Stabilizing, but still impact profit margins.
Conclusion:
• Market competition & macroeconomic factors will play a big role in NIO’s future.
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4. Competitive Landscape
• Tesla (TSLA): Strong margins & global leader.
• BYD: Biggest threat in China due to lower costs.
• XPeng & Li Auto: Direct competitors in premium EV space.
Conclusion:
• NIO is losing market share and needs stronger financials to compete.
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5. Five-Year Fair Value Projection (2025-2030)
• Best-case scenario (Bullish) → $20-$30
• NIO achieves profitability & sales growth.
• Base-case scenario (Moderate) → $10-$15
• Lower losses but still struggles with competition.
• Worst-case scenario (Bearish) → $3-$5
• Cash burn continues, leading to share dilution & price stagnation.
Current Fair Value Estimate: $7-$10 (based on discounted cash flow models).
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Final Verdict: Is NIO Ready to Go Up?
• Short-term: Needs to break $6.00 for bullish momentum.
• Long-term: High risk, high reward – profitability is key.
• Fair Value (2029-2030): $15-$25 if execution improves.
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⚠️ Disclaimer:
This is not financial or investment advice. Investing in stocks, especially high-risk ones like NIO, carries significant risks. Always do your own research and consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
NIO Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought NIO before the previous earnings:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of NIO prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 6usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2025-6-20,
for a premium of approximately $0.47.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
NIO Share Price Soars by Approximately 17%NIO Share Price Soars by Approximately 17%
The stock chart of Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer NIO shows that its price has reached a new high for 2025, following a 10% surge yesterday.
In the process, the stock formed a wide bullish gap and successfully broke through the psychological $5 per share level.
Why Has NIO’s Share Price Risen?
The bullish sentiment is largely driven by anticipation of the company's upcoming earnings report. Last year, NIO achieved record-breaking monthly EV deliveries, reaching 31,000 units in December.
Investors are now eagerly awaiting further details about NIO’s two new mass-market brands, Onvo and Firefly. Onvo has already launched, while pre-orders for Firefly—a compact and intelligent EV priced at around $20,500—have begun.
Additionally, some investors may be shifting capital from TSLA shares (which have been experiencing a bearish trend, as reported yesterday) into NIO stock.
Technical Analysis of NIO’s Stock Chart
Looking at the bigger picture, NIO’s share price remains within a long-term downward trend (marked by the red descending channel). Since the start of 2025, the stock has fluctuated around the median line without dropping below $4 per share, a level where supply and demand have historically balanced out.
However, yesterday’s strong upward momentum suggests that the balance may have shifted in favour of the bulls. Given the positive fundamental outlook, buyers could maintain the recent gains, potentially pushing the share price towards the upper boundary of the red channel—following the trajectory outlined by the blue lines on the chart.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
NIO - Earngins and FY2024 results, upside $6+XPEV has already given a hint and direction along with BABA plus China's stimulus. Also, thanks to Trump's tariffs, people bet on China.
NIO is going to post positive earnings and FY2024 results.
I expect the price to take a leap step towards $6 with a resistance of $7.29.
Split the trades as my entries are 4.5-5. Sell the resistance.
NIO | China will Lead the EV BattleNIO, Inc. is a holding company which engages in the design, manufacture, and sale of electric vehicles. Its products include the EP9 supercar and ES8 7-seater SUV. It provides users with home charging, power express valet services, and other power solutions including access to public charging, access to power mobile charging trucks, and battery swapping. It also offers other value-added services such as service package, battery payment arrangement, and vehicle financing and license plate registration. The company was founded by Bin Li and Li Hong Qin on November 28, 2014 and is headquartered in Jiading, China.
One last drop, one last sale. Dear NIO Investors, I Come with Good News.
Apologies if the chart looks busy, but to fully explain my perspective, I need to highlight key patterns: Head and Shoulders, Fibonacci levels, RSI divergence, and projected price paths.
We can all see the massive green trendline that NIO has respected for years. Recently, there was a brief fake breakout, signaling that market whales are actively watching this stock. This move likely triggered stop losses, shaking out weak hands and grabbing liquidity—classic whale behavior.
Now, the direction is becoming clearer. Alongside the RSI divergence (marked by blue arrows), which is a strong bullish signal, I believe NIO is setting up for a major move. However, before that happens, we may see one final dip, potentially forming a triple bottom near $3.69 before a strong reversal.
Technical Analysis:
🔹 Head and Shoulders:
Typically, the price moves nearly the same distance from the head to the neckline before completing the pattern. This suggests further downside is possible, but confirmation is key.
🔹 Fibonacci Retracement:
When all three key Fibonacci levels are broken, price often retests the original Fib start point. However, markets don’t always behave perfectly—whales may step in earlier if demand rises.
Key Takeaways:
📌 $3.69 is a potential target, not a guarantee. If too many traders expect that level, whales may buy slightly higher or lower.
📌 Volume and price action are crucial. If buyers step in before reaching $3.69, the reversal may start sooner.
📌 External market conditions (EV sector news, macroeconomics) could impact this setup. Watch for catalysts.
Final Thoughts:
I know it has been years since I last posted, but nothing seemed significant enough to update—until now.
🚀 My strategy:
Consider scaling in gradually rather than waiting for an exact price.
If NIO dips before the rally, watch for strong buyer reaction before entering more aggressively.
This is not financial advice, just my perspective based on the charts. Stay smart, and trade wisely.
$NIO yieahhI had to, really had to - do another post for $NIO. This time on the monthly logarithmic.
Love this structure on the monthly, 3M and 6M look GORGEOUS. That last word makes me worried a bit, this chart is just too good that makes it sketchy. But hey - I am still hyper bullish.
Ran a time mark from the gray vertical line to the blues. Started on the retest from Wave 1 as that retest looks pretty similar to what we just saw in Feb. This takes us to $25 by October which is an insane 5-6x in pure stock play. If we break the mid line we are off to the upper part of the channel.
Is this too good to be true? I don't know that's why I ask.
yieahhhh
NIO will follow BABA hi traders,
BABA has been pumping for the last few days.
NIO is a lagger and the price remains under the downsloping resistance line.
Once we get a successful breakout, expect the rocket to launch.
72% gains in the next weeks are very likely.
Don't miss it out!
NIO Has A Broken Neck! Can we take advantage?NIO is showing a textbook head and shoulders (Bearish) pattern. It is characterized by a change in market structure where the left shoulder forms the initial high and low, the head signifies the continuation and the right shoulder is the failure in the resumption of the trend. In this chart, we notice that the right shoulder fails to make a new high and proceeds to make a new low. By connecting the pivot lows, we can identify a H&S neckline near the $5 mark. We recently fell below this line which is our first signal to enter the short.
Looking for additional confluence, we note that there was significant support that was broken in the pink zone which stems from March 2024. That zone has been tested several times since March 2024. We have also broken below the 200ma which confirms the long-term downtrend. On the most recent candle, we broke below these key levels with above-average spread and above-average volume suggesting strength to the downside. Finally, since Trump has won the presidency, he vowed to increase tariffs, especially for China. This is terrible fundamental news for the Chinese stock.
Aggressive traders may take the short as is and may ride the short to the first target (~$4) which I have identified as a potential support area. There is a second target which is projected by the head and shoulders pattern (~$3.50)
For more conservative traders, we can wait for the retest of the neckline which happens to coincide with the 200 MA and sits just above the former support turned resistance. I like this level better because it provides a better risk-reward ratio.
Key notes: Earnings are coming up in a few days. This could be a volatile event that works in the trade's favor or works against it. Please be aware of that risk while trading.
GLTA
Nio - It's his time to change the EV conception?Nio has developed a Wyckoff accumulation pattern, which started one year ago. The key level remains at $4.50, signaling the start of the next wave in this Elliott Cycle (3rd wave). Trend-Based Fibonacci Extension could help us identify key levels for this potential movement. It's important to note that this is just a probability, and nothing is certain yet.
What about the company ?
NIO is a Chinese electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer that has gained significant attention in recent years, particularly for its innovative approach to battery technology and its premium EV offerings. Founded in 2014, NIO has positioned itself as a major player in the global EV market, particularly in China, and is looking to expand its presence internationally.
Over the past three years, NIO has shown impressive growth in terms of vehicle deliveries. In 2021, the company delivered over 91,000 vehicles, a substantial increase from the 43,000 vehicles delivered in 2020. In 2022, NIO continued its upward trajectory, delivering over 122,000 vehicles, marking a strong year despite global supply chain challenges.
One of NIO's most innovative features is its battery swapping technology, which sets it apart from many other EV manufacturers. Instead of relying solely on traditional charging methods, NIO offers a Battery as a Service (BaaS) model. This allows customers to swap their depleted battery for a fully charged one at one of NIO's battery swap stations. This process takes just a few minutes, significantly reducing the waiting time compared to traditional charging stations.
This battery swapping system is part of NIO's strategy to address some of the main challenges associated with electric vehicles, such as long charging times and the high cost of battery replacement. It also allows NIO to offer vehicles at a lower upfront cost, as the battery is leased separately. This innovative system has the potential to revolutionize the EV market by offering a more convenient and flexible solution for drivers.
NIO's focus on advanced technology, luxury EVs, and battery swapping has made it a strong competitor in the growing electric vehicle industry. With plans for further expansion into Europe and possibly the U.S., NIO’s innovative approach to the EV market could play a key role in the future of electric transportation.
$NIO Short-term play; touched the .618 fib-retracement level.For the short term, I see NIO rising further on wave 3-5.
Additionally, I see a bull flag playing out.
It could even propel us out of this pattern.
But if it breaks out, can NIO also push through this larger resistance line?
And this one?
All I see is confluence.
Good luck to all.
$NIO Will a similar OBV and Volume pattern lead to a rally?Pay attention to the recent OBV structure (blue). Declining and forming a flat bottom.
The volume in pink displays the same characteristics during each stage of the Inverse H&S pattern: forming an initial peak during the left shoulder, a higher one during the formation of the head (although the head of the current pattern is accompanied by lower volume, but I have an explanation for it), and then peaking during the formation of the second touch of the base, at the start of the right shoulder. Finally, the volume dives along with the last peak of the structure before leaving the pattern altogether.
Additionally, notice how the Weinstein 30-week indicator is finding a bottom here.
During the 'head' or second dip, NIO's price declined on lower volume than in 2019. I can see it as a change of character. It looks like NIO didn't take this dip seriously this time.
$NIO The OBV is showing signs of a squeezeWatching the OBV, I notice that it has tanked recently forming a wedge.
Usually stocks build up the pressure, release it on the OBV, and the stock price rallies for months if it plays out on a long-term chart, as is the case with NIO.
I'm expecting a rally to $30-$40 in the coming months.
Updated pattern: $NIO at Stage 1 of Weinstein stage analysisThis could be viewed from another perspective, fitting within the broader context of my previous ideas on NIO.
The algos have awoken. $NIO Short term squeeze?As soon as the Weinstein 30-week indicator trended up on the 1-minute chart (first time since the start of January), price rallied by 1% and heavy call buying pushed the options premium to the bullish territory.
As a result, the indicator is trending up on the 30-minute chart for the first time since last November. I think that a squeeze is highly likely to occur over the next few days.
$NIO Triple dives, a repeat of 2020-2021. Bears in hibernation.During the first dive, volume is at its lowest. It dips slightly during the formation of the second dive in the middle, then gradually rises as the final shake-off takes shape, eventually reaching a high point.
Observe what's happening, a divergence between price and the On Balance Volume.
2020 // While the stock formed lower lows, the OBV stayed near the same level. During the first dive (part of a triple dive pattern), NIO’s On-Balance Volume kept declining until the second dive formed, after which it began to rise.
2025 // The OBV forms higher highs with each dive. While the price is making lower lows against a descending resistance line, the OBV is trending higher. Why is the price dropping when the OBV has reached the same level? I’m sensing a reversal is on the horizon.
The OBV is acting up.
What do you think? I'm very bullish.
$NIO Fibonacci Analysis. Reversal is coming.Placing the fib-retracement tool on the top of the chart and the recent bottom, I see that many level coincide with the support and resistance areas on NIO's chart.
Short-term, I see NYSE:NIO breaking out of this falling wedge:
It takes ~140 days for the third dive to play out. (Inverse H&S pattern, IMO).
See my previous post for a more in-depth explanation:
NIO Price movements seem Bullish ... Trap ?Summary of NIO's current technical picture.
Short-Term Bullish Breakout: On the 4-hour chart, NIO price broke above a trendline, suggesting potential upward momentum. However, the retest of the trendline is a crucial moment. If the price holds above the trendline, it confirms the breakout and could lead to further gains.
Strong Support Level: The price is currently at a significant support level, which also coincides with the 80-period Simple Moving Average (SMA). This confluence of support factors increases the likelihood of a price bounce.
Long-Term Uptrend: The 5-day chart shows that NIO is trading above a long-term support trendline with an upward slope. This indicates a prevailing uptrend over a longer timeframe. The recent bounce off this trendline further strengthens this bullish scenario.
Overall Interpretation:
The combination of these factors suggests a potentially bullish outlook for NIO. The short-term breakout, the strong support level, and the long-term uptrend all point towards possible upward price movement. However, the retest of the 4-hour trendline is a critical juncture.
Key Points to Watch:
Trendline Retest: Closely monitor how the price behaves at the retested trendline. A successful hold above the trendline would be a positive sign.
Support Level: The support level and the 80 SMA should act as a strong floor. A break below this level could negate the bullish scenario.
Volume: Observe the trading volume during the retest. Increased volume during the bounce would further confirm the strength of the support level.
NIO Inc May Start a New Trend to the Upside. NIOI really like the divergences on the new low on more than one occasion and an encompassing divergence between the first low and the very last one. This is a common set piece in these type of complex corrections, where the Elliott count proves to be problematic. I am confident of a high chance of a profitable long, because almost simultaneously there is a flip on BB%PCT, VZO and Stoch/RSI, plus a MIDAS line course. I used Fibonacci clusters to paint some stationary goals.
$NIO is looking very explosive.Nio has seen a long period of consolidation and the sentiment is at all time lows, it seems.
I think that the stock is in the 'depressive' phase where holders are exhausted, and accumulation is taking place. I'm betting on a breakout to $10, and then $40 on a long-term rally.
$NIO Price will see a rally to $30 during the coming China rallyNYSE:NIO is an EV maker in China, that moves close to AMEX:KWEB and other ETFs.
We didn't see the stock price move like during this TVC:HSI or NYSE:BABA rally, where the large Chinese equities were bid up this week. Instead, NIO has stayed flat.
Looking at the historic structure, and NIO's pattern today, I compare them and form a conclusion that this marks the beginning of the rally.
I think that the bottom is in, and that this 'triple dives' pattern represents a large reversal pattern, dating back 1 year. Just come back to this chart 12 months from now, and tell me what you think.
Update:
Look at the tilt of the support lines and compare them to each other.
