NIOD trade ideas
NIO INC - The potential callNio's stock journey:
IPO at $6.28 in 2018, peaked at $62.84 in 2021, now around $5,60/share.
Enterprise value peaked at $91.4 billion, now $10billion.
While the stock has lost 41.2% since new year, there is light at the end of the tunnel as the stock is in oversold territory and January sales expected to be better than predicted earlier.
* RSI finding support at trendline from 2019
* Sentiment about to change as stock is in oversold territory
* Price is at the price area where NIO corrected before it took of in 2020
NIO currently has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), which means it is in the top 20% of more than the 4,000 stocks that we rank based on trends in earnings estimate revisions and EPS surprises.
Boom Bust CycleGeorge Soros' theory of the boom-bust cycle, often intertwined with his concept of reflexivity, offers a unique perspective on how markets behave. Here's a breakdown:
1. Boom-Bust Cycle:
Soros argues that markets tend to experience self-reinforcing cycles of overconfidence and pessimism. In a boom phase, rising prices generate positive expectations, attracting more investment and further inflating prices. This can push asset valuations far beyond their inherent value, creating bubbles. Eventually, some event triggers a loss of confidence, leading to a bust as investors rush to sell, driving prices down sharply.
2. Reflexivity:
This is the crucial piece of Soros' theory. He believes that market participants' beliefs and expectations not only react to market conditions but also actively influence them. As prices rise in a boom, optimism becomes self-fulfilling, further fueling the rally. Conversely, in a bust, panic selling can exacerbate downturns. This creates a "two-way street" where perceptions shape reality and reality reinforces those perceptions.
3. Implications for Investors:
Soros' theory suggests that focusing solely on market fundamentals may not be enough. Identifying market sentiment, recognizing potential bubbles, and anticipating changes in expectations can be crucial for successful investing. He famously used this approach to short the British pound in 1992, betting on its devaluation due to overvaluation and excessive optimism.
Criticisms:
While influential, Soros' theory also faces critiques. Some argue that it's too subjective and lacks predictive power. Others consider it a "one-size-fits-all" explanation that neglects the diverse causes of booms and busts.
Further Exploration:
Books: "The Alchemy of Finance" by George Soros
By understanding George Soros' boom-bust cycle and its connection to reflexivity, you gain a valuable perspective on market dynamics and potentially refine your investment strategies. Remember, financial markets are complex systems, and any theory should be considered alongside other factors and careful analysis.
NIO: After analysis... don't think too much! Buy!!!Friends of the NYSE:NIO community... after analysis... don't think too much! Buy!!! 💎🙌💸
- Trading at 37.9% below our estimate of its fair value
- Revenue is forecast to grow 22.52% per year
- Vontobel Holding reports 5.05% increase to 1M shares
- Sumitomo holding 3,4M shares
- VWIGX - Vanguard International Growth Fund Investor Shares filed a NPORT-P form disclosing ownership of 38,610,070 shares of NIO
$NIO - $3.60 Price Target There is a bearish "F" flag setting up, watch for a break of flag and the measured downside is the length of the flag pole. Price Target at $3.60
NIO's floor reached? 30% upside on the go?! 26.1 Bounce from $5.75 weekly floor of stretched trend-line connecting 6 lows in 3 years.
This could easily lead back to the weekly roof at around $9 with a swift 2-4 week movement.
A break below $5.75 would allow for $4.83 to be tested.
Nio: Can This Fallen Angel Get Its Wings Back? Lets find out Today, we're taking a deep dive into Nio, given how low its price has fallen. By examining key valuation metrics like the P/S ratio, which is currently at its lowest ever point, we can ask: Could Nio be poised for a strong comeback? Let's put this to the test using my groundbreaking Nio chart analysis method, EW 2.0.
Curious about my EW 2.0 method? Catch my latest trade ideas below – you might see how it unlocks hidden patterns in NYSE:BABA & CRYPTOCAP:ETH charts.
NYSE:BABA :
BINANCE:ETHUSDT :
Nio Last Bull approach As visible in the chart, nio is right infront of the Gz and a finiesehd wxyxz, this will be the last chance for a likely bullscenario
: NIO Stock Reversal Around 200 MA Offers Promising Entry Points
NIO's stock price has recently shown signs of a reversal around the critical 200-day moving average (MA), indicating a potential trend change and presenting attractive entry levels for investors. The stock appears poised for upward movement, with short-term targets at $12, $13.8, and $14.7 then we will update.
However, it's worth noting that NIO's earnings report is due tomorrow, introducing an element of volatility that could impact the stock's performance. Therefore, cautious investors may choose to wait for the earnings results before taking a position.
Personally, I've been holding long calls on NIO for an extended period and remain bullish on the company's long-term prospects.
Investor sentiment seems to be turning positive, but as always, perform your own due diligence and consult financial advisors before making any investment decisions.
Good luck and all the best in your trading journey!
Note: This is not financial advice, and investors should conduct their own research and consult professionals before making any investment decisions.
NIO buy zone mid-termUsing my own Kaiju Trading Strategy, I've noticed a buy zone around 5.80$, would be nice to DCA around there for mid-term investment
Stop loss is below 4.5$ or you can DCA it if you are not in a hurry for quick profit and want to hold long-term
NFA DYOR
NIO AnalysisPrice played out nicely as analyzed last week, giving us a -16.48% move to the downside. As price is over-extended to the downside, I'm expecting a bullish retracement from here. Target for the bullish move will be the bearish order block at 7.67.
China’s Auto Exports Surge 58% to Record High in 2023 The development follows another milestone for Chinese auto exports after they hit more than 3 million vehicles in 2022 and over 2 million in 2021, the report said.
The latest record was driven by a surge in exports of new energy vehicles, which climbed 77.6% in 2023 to more than 1.2 million units, according to the report.
Overall auto sales in China climbed 12% year over year to 30.1 million units, while output rose 11.6% to 30.2 million units, Xinhua added.
Nio:
- Trading at 35% below our estimate of its fair value
- Revenue is forecast to grow 22.58% per year
$NIO - Danger!NYSE:NIO I don't always exit at the right time, but I got it right on this one.
NIO retraced back to the trendline last Friday around $6.
On the weekly chart, THREE BLACK CROWS candles formed, which usually means more downside to come.
I believe NYSE:BABA is a more compelling bet.
STOCK HOTLIST Here are two stocks I am currently watching. Lots of big shifts happening across the board in all markets. It is important to stay adaptable, flow like water as Bruce Lee says.
NIO down to the hellNIO dropped badly during the last two weeks
Price reached bottom of medium trend channel down but long term channel still have space to drop more
I think price will reach 5.30-5.40$ before a bounce can happen (blue arrow)
Yesterday price find support on medium term border and is also possible ad up move to 7$ (light blue arrow)
Profits inc: Reliable Double Bottom and Wedge pattern.Nio is poised for a long-term investment. Two of the most dependable indicators have been confirmed almost simultaneously. Combined with a Williams Percent Range of -96, this makes a strong case for a high-risk, high-reward opportunity.
Target 1 and Target 2 pointed out. $NYSE: NIO
All the best.
The Unraveling Tale of NIO Amidst the EV Industry Challenges
In the ever-evolving landscape of the electric vehicle (EV) industry, one player that has found itself caught in the whirlwind of challenges is NIO Inc. (NYSE: NYSE:NIO ). The once high-flying stock has witnessed a staggering 90% decline from its peak in 2021, raising concerns about the company's resilience in the face of intensifying competition and industry saturation.
The EV Industry Blues:
NYSE:NIO 's struggles are not isolated but are symptomatic of the broader challenges plaguing the EV sector. Even Tesla, often regarded as the gold standard, has faced a 28% drop from its 2023 high, yielding ground to competitors like BYD. The sector's smaller players, such as Mullen Automotive, Canoo, and Fisker, are grappling with cash burn, further contributing to the overall industry turmoil.
Market Saturation and Global Competition:
NYSE:NIO 's unique focus on the Chinese market, once considered a strategic advantage, has become a double-edged sword. China, flooded with electric vehicle brands like Xpeng, Li Auto, BYD, and Tesla, has become a battleground where companies vie for market share. Additionally, NIO faces fierce competition in Europe, with concerns arising from the EU's review of China's EV subsidies. The fear is that Chinese companies, including NYSE:NIO , enjoy subsidies, making their products more affordable than those produced within Europe.
Financial Lifeline and Global Expansion:
Despite the challenging landscape, NYSE:NIO has made strategic moves to secure its financial future. A recent $2.2 billion deal with CYVN from Abu Dhabi provides NYSE:NIO with a financial lifeline, tapping into a region experiencing exponential growth driven by tourism, finance, and energy sectors. This influx of funds positions NYSE:NIO well for the future and reduces immediate concerns about its financial stability.
Deliveries Surge Amidst Margin Pressures:
While NYSE:NIO managed to boost its deliveries, reaching 160,038 vehicles in 2023, a 30.7% YoY increase, the company grapples with thinning margins. The gross margin dipped to 8% in Q3 2023, down from 13.3% the previous year. NYSE:NIO attributed this decline to the industry-wide trend of slashing prices to remain competitive. The delicate balance between increasing market share and preserving profit margins remains a pivotal challenge for the company.
Technical Downturn and Bearish Outlook:
Technically, NYSE:NIO 's stock price has experienced a persistent downward trend, breaching key support levels and remaining below crucial moving averages. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropping below 50 further underscores the bearish sentiment.
Conclusion:
NYSE:NIO 's journey in the coming months will undoubtedly be a test of its adaptability and strategic prowess. As the EV industry undergoes a seismic shift, NYSE:NIO 's ability to navigate these challenges, secure global partnerships, and maintain a delicate balance between growth and profitability will determine whether it can rise from the current slump and redefine its position in the competitive electric vehicle landscape.
NIONIO is looking interesting.
Backed by the Chinese Government.
Not profitable yet, but could gain large market share if EV trend continues.
Might be a good swing trade.
levels to watchBased on 10 Wall Street analysts offering 12 month price targets for Nio in the last 3 months. The average price target is $10.86 with a high forecast of $18.70 and a low forecast of $8.00. The average price target represents a 65.80% change from the last price of $6.55.
$NIO - MAJOR BEARISH CHANNEL $4.70 1st TargetA Major Downward Channel is still at play with ta 1st major Gap area that needs to be filled at around $4.70. If it breaks, then there is another gap below that with multiple support areas that could break. Final support at at the $1.19 area. Short at each break for maximize profit
Target reachedNIO reached the lower margin of the channelup and price can now try to bounce back heading to the next resistance at 7.95 and then 8.50
Breaking down will go to test again LL around 7$
NIO to $10 by end of January.Hi Traders,
NIO's main seasonality is January with 83% win rate (stock is green). We started this year at $8.41 on 2 Jan, which means by 31 January, NIO will likely be higher than $8.41. I'm targeting the 1/19 $10 CALL option (which is currently $0.14), based on positive RSI divergence on the 2hr chart. In addition, NIO closed the $8.50 gap and is currently forming a bullish wedge pattern.
Entry: $8.27-$8.50
Target 1: $9.65
Target 2: $10.11
Stop Loss: $8.01
Option Entry: BTO NIO 1/19 $10C @ .15
Option Target: STC NIO 1/19 $10C @ .30 for 100% profit
Options SL: STC NIO 1/19 $10C @ .10 for 33% risk
Happy Trading!
Nio breakdown to good long oppertunitiesNio has great long term potential. The short term resistance breakdown presents a good oppertunity to accumulate the stock as excellent prices. The first buy target is at 5 dollars.
