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ORCL trade ideas

Oracle ($ORCL) Gap-Fill & Earning Jump PlayTheory : Oracle has a history of significant price gaps after earnings reports. The stock is currently trading within an ascending channel and has an open gap from the last earnings. I expect a pullback to close this gap before the next earnings report triggers a potential upward gap. Ideal Entry Point : 142.51 - 144.97 USD (after the gap fills and the price hits channel support). Profit Taker : Targeting 192.27-195.02 USD (2 weeks range after earnings report), aligning with the top of the ascending channel and historical earnings reactions. This move represents a potential 35%+ gain. Disclaimer : This idea is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. I am not a professional, and you should do your own research or consult with a licensed professional before making any investment decisions.
NYSE:ORCLLong
by elka_graph
3
ORACLE Channel Up targeting $200.Oracle (ORCL) broke above its previous High last week and even though the current one is under a certain degree of volatility (reasonable due to the Fed), this confirmed the upward continuation of the trend. Technically, the stock has been trading within a long-term Channel Up since the September 2022 market bottom and after a prolonged test this year of the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) as Support, it has started the new Bullish Leg with the current phase being the last one. An ideal 1W RSI symmetry suggests that we might be printing a sequence similar to March - June 2023, which peaked after a +110% rise from its bottom. As a result, we remain bullish on Oracle, targeting $200.00 by the end of the year. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NYSE:ORCLLong
by TradingShot
Oracle Corporation | ORCL & Ai If there is one person that you can compare it with Tony Stark aka IRON MAN is Larry Ellison the ruthless entrepreneur who is born to win and be the number 1. Since the close of trading Friday, Ellison’s net worth has pumped 8 billion dollar to reach $ 206 billion Oracle’s stock has reached new highs following its earnings report last week, which exceeded expectations and raised its revenue forecast for fiscal 2026. Orcl have risen 20% this month and If this upward trend holds, it would mark their best performance since October 2022, when the stock jumped 28%, and the second best month since October 2002, nearly two decades ago. The company’s stock success is partly driven by its involvement in the booming artificial intelligence sector. Ellison, Oracle’s founder since 1977, mentioned in last week’s earnings call that the company is building data centers to meet the growing demand for generative AI. “We are literally building the smallest, most portable, most affordable cloud data centers all the way up to 200 megawatt data centers, ideal for training very large language models and keeping them up to date,” Larry said during the call also he recently mentioned that Elon Musk and I ‘begged’ Jensen Huang for GPUs over dinner!We need you to take more of our money please!! It went ok. I mean, it worked! Oracle also announced last week a partnership with Amazon’s cloud computing division to run its database services on dedicated hardware. Over the past year, it has formed similar alliances with Microsoft and Google, two other major cloud infrastructure providers Oracle's cloud services are a key driver of their success, with revenue from this division growing 21% year over year, reaching $5.6 billion in quarterly earnings Oracle is becoming a crucial provider, acting like a foundational layer for AI-focused companies. Their database systems are now critical to supporting businesses like OpenAI, AWS, and Google Cloud in building the infrastructure for future AI advancements. Despite AWS and Google Cloud being direct competitors, Oracle’s software remains essential to AI’s future. Oracle's technology plays a foundational role, much like GPUs have in AI development. As companies seek efficient cloud-database solutions for AI workloads, Oracle is well-positioned to fulfill this demand. Considering their strong Q1 performance and the central role of their database software in this field, I now view Oracle as a strong buy. The company's AI-powered cloud solutions, strategic partnerships, and growing database market make their technology indispensable for the future of AI Oracle’s fiscal Q1 for FY 2025 exceeded expectations, with non GAAP earnings per share (EPS) of $1.39, surpassing estimates by $0.06, and revenue hitting $13.3 billion, outperforming projections by $60 million. The cloud segment, which includes their AI database software, remains a significant growth driver, generating $5.6 billion in revenue. Most of Oracle’s revenue came from the Americas, contributing $8.3 billion, a 6.9% year-over-year increase. The AI revolution, gaining momentum in the US, aligns with their strong revenue growth in this region. During the Q1 earnings call, management emphasized their expanded partnerships with major tech companies like Google Cloud (Alphabet Inc) and AWS (Amazon), which are notable given that they are also competitors. Oracle highlighted its success in the AI training space, pointing to the construction of large data centers equipped with ultra-high-performance RDMA networks and 32,000-node NVIDIA GPU clusters. In the EMEA region, crucial to Oracle’s growth due to rising demand for cloud infrastructure and AI solutions among European enterprises and governments (sovereign AI), the company reported $3.3 billion in revenue. Oracle’s earnings per share aka EPS is projected to grow at a compound annual rate of 13.5% for FY 2025, increasing to 14.41% in FY 2026, and continuing to compound at a modest double-digit rate in the coming years. While these projections show strong potential for Oracle to be a compounder, I believe they may be somewhat conservative. The company’s remaining performance obligations (RPO) jumped 53% year-over-year to $99 billion by the end of the first fiscal quarter, indicating that their pipeline of signed work is growing faster than revenue. Once Oracle scales its solutions and workforce to match this RPO growth, we could see both revenue and EPS accelerate further. In fact, while Oracle’s forward revenue growth is projected at just 8.86% for the next 12 months, their backlog is growing by over 50%. This suggests a notable gap between revenue expectations and actual demand. I believe the current revenue growth projections are too low, and once revised upward, they could become a key growth catalyst for the company. As for Oracle’s valuation, its forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio stands at 24.74, which is just 6.76% above the sector median of 23.17. However, given Oracle’s growth potential, I think it warrants a P/E ratio closer to 30.12, which is roughly 30% above the sector median. This would imply an additional 21.75% upside for the stock, excluding dividends. With a forward P/E ratio only slightly above the sector median, despite Oracle’s impressive growth, the company’s performance suggests the stock should be trading at a higher valuation. Larry Ellison is the man that I always can trust his vision and always bullish on his spirit and his ambitious. Oracle expanding influence in AI, coupled with robust revenue growth, positions the stock for significant upside. AI is like a modern day Gold Rush, and Oracle, much like GPU makers, is providing the essential tools the "pickaxe" for AI companies so That’s a space I’m eager to invest in the chart looks insane and if there will be pullback I consider it as a buy opportunity
NYSE:ORCLLong
by moonypto
Oracle Hit a Record High This Week. Here Are Its ChartsOracle NYSE:ORCL gained more than 10% to hit record highs this week after the cloud-based AI giant beat analysts’ earnings and revenue expectations and announced a deal to integrate its products with Amazon Web Services. What does ORCL’s fundamental and technical analysis say could happen next? Let’s take a look: Fundamental Analysis Oracle reported after the bell Monday that it saw $1.39 in adjusted earnings per share on $13.307 billion of revenues in its fiscal Q1 ended Aug. 31. Adjusted EPS beat the Street's expectations by about a nickel, while revenues not only beat analysts’ consensus estimates, but were also good for 6.8% in year-over-year growth. Other highlights included 53% year-over-year growth in Total Remaining Performance Obligations to $99 billion, a 45% y/y increase in IaaS Cloud Infrastructure Revenue to $2.2 billion and 21% y/y gains in IaaS + SaaS Cloud Revenue to $5.6 billion. Meanwhile, perhaps even bigger than the earnings news was word that Oracle had signed a MultiCloud agreement with Amazon NASDAQ:AMZN . Under the deal, Oracle will embed its Exadata hardware and Version 23ai database software into Amazon Web Services cloud datacenters. This agreement will enable enterprise customers to connect data in their Oracle database to applications running on Amazon's cloud service. AWS customers in turn will get access to Oracle's database in September. Oracle already signed a similar deal with Alphabet NASDAQ:GOOGL NASDAQ:GOOG in June covering the Google Cloud. In other words, three of the nation's four largest cloud-services providers (Oracle, Amazon and Alphabet) are now working together. (The other large provider is Microsoft NASDAQ:MSFT , which owns the Microsoft Azure cloud-computing platform.) The Amazon deal and Oracle’s solid earnings sent ORCL shares up 14.1% as of midday Thursday from where the stock closed on Monday before the news broke. Shares are also up some 50% year to date in 2024, making Oracle one of the year’s best-performing large-cap tech stocks. Technical Analysis Now let’s look at Oracle’s technicals, beginning with its one-year chart as of midday on Tuesday (Sept. 10): Readers will see a pattern in the above chart where for three straight quarters, Oracle reported earnings and/or other news that created a "gap-up" session the next trading day. These gaps broke the stock out of periods of basing consolidation three times -- in March, June and again on Tuesday (Sept. 10). It's almost like a step ladder. Can the stock hold on to its latest gap-up? Well, in both prior moves, the stock filled the gap ahead of its next earnings-reporting date. Does that make sense to engage with Oracle’s latest gap, or is it more prudent to use history as a guide and wait to see if the stock fills its latest gap? Mind you, Oracle previously has filled in gaps -- but over these past nine months, the stock has never broken through established support. Oracle’s Relative Strength Index (the gray line at the top of the above chart) looks to be technically overbought as well. Over the past nine months, every one of those elevated RSI readings turned out to be a temporary sell signal. That said, the daily Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (or MACD, the gold and black lines at the bottom of the above chart) is slightly bullish. The 12-Day Exponential Moving Average (the black line) is above the 26-Day Exponential Moving Average (the gold line). Meanwhile, the histogram for the 9-Day Exponential Moving Average (the blue bars at the bottom of the chart) is ever so slightly above zero. Historically, that combination looks a bit positive, but also seems almost cautious. The moves seem less pronounced, and not as sharp. Next, let's throw an Andrews' Pitchfork model onto Oracle’s chart and see if we can't smooth out the stock’s price action for the less trained eye: Tracing the pitchfork back to Oracle’s October low and running it through the present, we find that almost everything in between has been part of a trend. If the pitchfork is to continue as it has, then ORCL tried to crack the upper trendline of the model (the highest of the five “pitchfork” lines shaded in gray). However, the stock was quickly forced back down into that upper chamber. Does that mean the most recent gap will fill? If the past serves as guide and if the trend has its way, that seems likely. (Disclosure: At the time of this writing, Moomoo Markets Commentator Stephen Guilfoyle was long AMZN.) This article discusses technical analysis, other approaches, including fundamental analysis, may offer very different views. The examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be reflective of the results you can expect to achieve. Specific security charts used are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Past investment performance does not indicate or guarantee future success. Returns will vary, and all investments carry risks, including loss of principal. This content is also not a research report and is not intended to serve as the basis for any investment decision. The information contained in this article does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. Moomoo and its affiliates make no representation or warranty as to the article's adequacy, completeness, accuracy or timeliness for any particular purpose of the above content. 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NYSE:ORCL
by moomoo
Oracle Shares (ORCL) Surge Over 11% to Record HighOracle Shares (ORCL) Surge Over 11% to Record High As the chart shows, Oracle Corp. (ORCL) closed yesterday’s trading session above $155, and during the session, the stock even climbed above $160, marking an all-time high. The bullish sentiment is driven by a strong quarterly earnings report: → Earnings per share were $1.39, surpassing the $1.33 expected by FactSet analysts. → Revenue rose to $13.31 billion from $12.45 billion, beating the forecast of $13.23 billion. "With cloud services becoming Oracle’s largest business, the growth in our operating profit and earnings per share has accelerated," said CEO Safra Catz in a press release. Investors reacted positively to news of Oracle’s partnership with Amazon Web Services and projections of accelerated growth in the company’s order backlog. However, technical analysis of Oracle Corp. (ORCL) shares suggests the market might be “overheated.” This is indicated by: → The price's position relative to the linear regression channel, which started in 2022. The price is significantly above the upper boundary. → The RSI indicator entering the overbought zone. This situation is reminiscent of June 2023, when the price rose above the upper boundary of the channel but failed to break $128, eventually falling back below the median. It’s possible that the current optimism around the strong report could fade, and profit-taking might lead to a correction. In this case, Oracle Corp. (ORCL) shares could test a potential support area formed by the psychological level of $150 and the former resistance of $145, which may switch roles, as seen with the $128 level (indicated by the arrow). This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
NYSE:ORCL
by FXOpen
1
Oracle’s Earnings Growth & Amazon Deal Propel Stock to New HighsOracle Corporation ( NYSE:ORCL ) is riding a wave of investor optimism after posting impressive fiscal first-quarter results and announcing a strategic multicloud partnership with Amazon Web Services (AWS). This combination of strong financial performance and a game-changing collaboration has driven Oracle’s stock up nearly 9% in extended trading, marking a significant milestone in the company’s journey as a leading enterprise software and cloud services provider. Key Highlights - Earnings Beat Expectations: Oracle reported first-quarter revenue of $13.3 billion, up 7% year-over-year, surpassing analysts' expectations. Earnings per share climbed to $1.03, beating the previous year’s 86 cents. - AI-Driven Cloud Growth: Oracle’s cloud services, its largest business segment, saw a 21% revenue increase to $5.6 billion, fueled by heightened demand for AI training models. The company’s Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) surged 45% year-over-year to $2.2 billion, a testament to the robust growth driven by AI applications. - Amazon Partnership: Oracle announced a multicloud partnership with AWS, allowing customers to leverage Oracle database technology within AWS cloud data centers. This collaboration is expected to accelerate cloud adoption and drive further revenue growth. Why Oracle is Soaring Oracle’s financial strength is closely tied to its strategic focus on AI and cloud computing. With the rapid rise of AI large language models, Oracle’s cloud infrastructure has become a vital resource for companies looking to train these models efficiently. CEO Safra Catz highlighted a strong contract backlog, emphasizing the potential for sustained revenue growth throughout fiscal year 2025. Additionally, Oracle’s partnership with AWS underscores its commitment to becoming a central player in the multicloud environment. By integrating with one of the world’s largest cloud providers, Oracle not only expands its market reach but also solidifies its position as a versatile and reliable cloud service provider, giving clients more flexibility and options for their data management needs. The combination of AI-fueled demand and strategic alliances makes Oracle a compelling investment opportunity. Its impressive earnings growth and market adaptability suggest that the company is well-positioned to capitalize on the expanding cloud market, especially as enterprises increasingly look towards multicloud solutions. Technical Analysis: Oracle’s stock has been on a bullish trajectory, gaining over 34% year-to-date before Monday’s after-hours surge. The recent price action suggests a continuation of this upward trend, particularly with the stock breaking out of a well-defined trading range in mid-June. - Short-Term Price Targets: Following the breakout, Oracle shares ( NYSE:ORCL ) defended a key level in early August before rallying over 11% from last month’s low. Technical analysis suggests a short-term price target of $154, calculated using the measuring principle that involves adding the height of the prior trading range to the breakout point. - Critical Retracement Levels: Investors should watch for potential retracements to the $145 level, which previously served as resistance and may now act as support. This level will be crucial in determining whether Oracle ( NYSE:ORCL ) can maintain its upward momentum or if profit-taking could lead to a temporary pullback. Future Outlook Oracle’s recent performance and its expanding cloud business provide strong tailwinds. However, it’s important to consider potential risks, such as overbought market conditions and the possibility of a cooling-off period. The current rally has been fueled by euphoria around AI and partnerships, but extended upward trends without consolidation can lead to volatility. The technical outlook remains positive, but investors should be mindful of the broader market environment and Oracle’s valuation. With the stock up significantly in recent months, any signs of slowing growth or competitive pressures could prompt a retracement. Conclusion Oracle’s blend of AI-driven earnings growth, strategic cloud partnerships, and technical breakout positions it as a standout performer in the tech sector. The multicloud deal with AWS is a game-changer that not only broadens Oracle’s market reach but also underscores its adaptability in a rapidly evolving industry. While the stock’s current momentum is promising, careful monitoring of key technical levels and fundamental developments will be essential in navigating Oracle’s next move. As the company continues to innovate and expand its cloud offerings, it stands well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for AI and multicloud solutions, potentially driving further gains for investors in the months ahead.
NYSE:ORCLLong
by DEXWireNews
Oracle (ORCL): Bullish Outlook Ahead of EarningsToday, we’re getting the earnings report on ORCL, and we’ve had to adjust our last analysis accordingly. We are now looking at a more bullish scenario after our previous bearish outlook was invalidated. If Oracle holds the desired level, we believe our current wave count is accurate. The count is pretty straightforward, and we think we’re now in the intra wave (ii) of the larger wave 3. This wave (ii) might touch the trend channel again, though it doesn’t necessarily have to. The channel seems accurate as waves ((i)), ((ii)), and ((iii)) are all tagging it. It would have been ideal if wave ((iv)) had touched it as well, but perfection is rare in markets. We’re focusing on the area between $133.43 and $129 to hold. We’re not setting any limit orders for ourselves just yet, as we want to see if our new count proves correct before making any moves.
NYSE:ORCLLong
by freeguy_by_wmc
$ORCL The Matrix OracleNow that you have grasped the basic knowledge of the Matrix and its blueprint being conceptually Math, here we are diving towards the horizon which is the future trying to make sense of the math of the path. That lies ahead of us. Extracting the information required to navigate into the unknown which is the future which might have already happened, we don't need to understand our choices, or the cause of our choices, we don't even need to accept the effects of the causes that lie beneath the fabric of the Universe which is a Matrix. All we need to do is get some more views into my ideas because the math behind it might suggest that we are living in a block Universe and the Future is The Past. For the Aliens that Have conquered. A Black Hole. Nen. Not financial advice, but all rectangles and elements are projected simulated potential support/resistance. Looking forward to see if this conceptually math idea nen project resembles or makes sense even for the untrained eye, taking into account the price action that will follow after its inception. The Inception of the idea that everything is math and it all comes down to probabilities and potentials, doesn't need you to believe or see or understand. Your Subconscious might see it all in a fraction of a second of computational awesomeness that uses only 20watts to function, which is your brain. Good luck!
NYSE:ORCL
by nen
14
Oracle, a quiet emerging major AI playerNYSE:ORCL is quietly becoming a major player in the AI revolution, driven by its AI partnerships and expanding data center infrastructure. With rapid growth in its cloud business, Oracle is transforming into an AI powerhouse, offering significant upside potential for investors. The company's strong financial performance and strategic deals with firms like OpenAI position it for continued success. As for the technicals, Oracle is currently trading at $133.28, having dropped by 3.08%. The stock is moving within a rising channel but has recently dipped below its 50-day moving average, which could signal short-term weakness. The MACD shows a bearish trend, indicating potential downward momentum. Investors should watch for support around $130 and resistance near $140.
NYSE:ORCL
by finvizclub
ORCL: Pay Attention to These Key Points! (D / W charts)The ORCL chart displays notable patterns and key levels on both the daily (1D) and weekly (1W) timeframes, offering insights into potential trading opportunities. On the daily chart, ORCL is forming a possible double top pattern around the $145.32 resistance level, indicating a potential bearish reversal. The double top is a classic bearish pattern that occurs after an extended uptrend, and it often signifies that the asset may experience a decline. The confirmation of this pattern would be a break below the trigger point at $137.56, which could open the door for further downside. As long as the price stays above this key point, the bearish thesis won’t materialize. Additionally, the daily chart shows a price gap that occurred in mid-June, suggesting a strong bullish move that pushed the stock significantly higher. However, the recent formation of the double top pattern near the $145.32 resistance level implies that the bullish momentum may be waning. The 21-day EMA has been providing dynamic support and will be a critical level to watch. A close below this EMA could signal further bearish pressure. On the weekly chart, ORCL's long-term uptrend is evident, supported by a rising trendline that has been intact since October 2022. The stock has been riding above the 21-week EMA, indicating strong bullish momentum over the longer term. However, the recent candlestick pattern shows signs of potential exhaustion as the price nears the $145.32 resistance level, which aligns with the double top seen on the daily chart. The weekly chart also highlights a key support level at $127.54, which coincides with the rising trendline and the 21-week EMA. This support level will be crucial in determining the longer-term direction of the stock. A break below this level could signify a trend reversal, while a bounce off this level could reinforce the ongoing uptrend. In summary, ORCL is at a critical juncture with a bearish double top pattern on the daily chart and signs of potential exhaustion on the weekly chart. The key levels to watch are the $145.32 resistance and the $137.56 trigger point on the daily chart, along with the 21 EMA on the daily chart. A break below the trigger point could confirm the bearish reversal, while maintaining above the support could sustain the longer-term uptrend. Remember that the trend is bullish, and any pullback should be considered as another buying opportunity. Trends persist until a clear reversal occurs (Dow Theory, tenet #6) For more detailed technical analyses and insights like this, be sure to follow my account. Your support helps me continue providing valuable content to help you make informed trading decisions. Remember, real trading is reactive, not predictive, so let's stay focused on the key points described above and only trade when there is confirmation. “To anticipate the market is to gamble. To be patient and react only when the market gives the signal is to speculate.” — Jesse Lauriston Livermore All the best, Nathan.
NYSE:ORCL
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
ORCL, out of steam?ORCL presents a contrarian trading opportunity. Despite overall bullish sentiment, the price action suggests a potential downside. ORCL recently hit an all-time high but closed lower, indicating possible bearish momentum. With QQQ breaking out and major tech stocks like NVDA, AAPL, GOOGL, and MSFT showing significant growth, it's plausible that these leaders might consolidate as the market catches up. ORCL appears poised for this consolidation phase, making it an optimal candidate for a short trade based on its recent price movements and market dynamics.
NYSE:ORCLShort
by thinkCNE
Oracle introduces new AI breakthrough for corporate software devThis week, Oracle Inc. introduced an important artificial intelligence (AI) innovation aimed at the most popular AI field: corporate software development. Oracle expects this product to drive profitable sales, distinguishing it from most mass-market AI services. The introduction of the new solution, Oracle APEX AI Assistant, is set to revolutionise the way enterprise programs are created. This innovative tool eliminates the need for extensive source code, significantly reducing development time and costs. In fact, APEX AI Assistant allows enterprise applications to be deployed 20 times faster and to write 100 times less code than traditional tools. Given these developments, let's examine the Oracle Inc. (NYSE: ORCL) shares from a technical analysis perspective for potential trading opportunities. On the Daily (D1) timeframe, resistance at 140.95 USD was broken through, and support has formed at 137.40 USD. Quotes have left the broad sideways channel, in which they have been trading since June 2023. In the event of a downward trend, the target for the fall may be set at the level of 122.50 USD. If the upward trend continues, the short-term target could be set at 155.00 USD upon a rebound from the resistance at 140.95 USD. In the medium term, the price may rise to 168.00 USD. __ Ideas and other content presented on this page should not be considered as guidance for trading or an investment advice. RoboMarkets bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading opinions described in these analytical reviews. The material presented and the information contained herein is for information purposes only and in no way should be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Investment Firms Law L. 87(I)/2017 of the Republic of Cyprus or any other form of personal advice or recommendation, which relates to certain types of transactions with certain types of financial instruments. Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69.88% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
NYSE:ORCL
by RoboMarkets
ORCL Long-Term Bull, ignore the noise from CRM and MDBJust a few days ago, ORCL was WS's darling. But suddenly, CRM software revenue was missed, vital guidance was absent, and Database MDB's soft earnings were lost in this high-expectation environment. Then, the macro environment around rates and inflation was ongoing. All this is noise; ORCL is turning into a mini Microsoft, a cloud and Software company. Its cloud segment will shadow everything else. My target is 140 by July and August, but before that, it can test 105 in the worst-case scenario. Please consider the validity of my other ideas so far in the recent timeframe. Disclaimer: I am on the Call for July 130, a long, cheap contract.
NYSE:ORCLLong
by vishalniit
3
6/11/24 - $orcl - not best reward for risk in this tape. pass.6/11/24 - vrockstar - NYSE:ORCL - literally wrote this prior to the last quarter (when i wasn't publishing publicly) and not much has seemed to change: seems fairly valued all else equal "uninteresting" at current levels which implies 10 bn FCF discounted at 3% which seems to be about the norm for above average software. i'd be more interested at the 4-4.5% level which implies a reasonable downside from here otherwise have better horses what's new? it's not a mag 7. when you divide "ORCL/QQQ" - you go back to the 90s! in other words, it's not really been the best nasdaq horse. is it still relevant? yes. is there still potential in the "data centers and data aggregators etc. are the new hot thing" - yes. i'm not an anti-ORCL stonker but for 10% EPS growth? what am i paying for scale (yes scale) here? 20x? most? 2x PEG. this isn't 15%, it's not 20%, it's 10%. 20x on $5.5 of EPS power puts you a bit above $100. so while the recent quarter was a pop and stick - you didn't get much more run. i don't see the value of necking out on this one if you're looking to outperform the index. i'd either go even lager in cap or something that's smaller i've written about in software, NYSE:YOU , NASDAQ:NICE , NYSE:S , even NYSE:IOT (which you'll pay more for - but has great LT legs). conclusion: dip buy this, don't bet on the breakout and rip higher in the current tape - it's too much risk vs. return. i'll probably short the stock if we find ourselves in the mid 130s (as a funding for longs I like). otherwise i wish you the best if u own it no hard feelings. :) take care today fam V
NYSE:ORCL
by VROCKSTAR
Oracle (ORCL): Bearish Scenario with Long-Term PotentialSince our last analysis of Oracle on the daily chart, there has been little significant change. The stock moved into our Wave (B) zone between $128 and $138, and after reaching a high of $132.77, it was rejected. A trendline was broken but quickly reclaimed, suggesting a potential push upward. We anticipate Wave 3, the subordinate wave, to find support around $91 to $86. Currently, everything indicates a falling trend, and unless the price rises above the recent high of $132.77, we expect continued downward movement. However, our primary scenario remains bearish, expecting a further sell-off down to the range between $80 and $50. This range is broad but suitable for long-term entries. We see no issue with the size of this target zone, as it offers good long-term potential.
NYSE:ORCLShort
by freeguy_by_wmc