Long on PAGS?First paper trade!
Looking at PAGS on the weekly, our big buyer stepped in on the week of 12/24/18, rested a bit starting the week of 3/25/19 but stepped back in the week of 4/15/19. Our buyer started resting a bit on 8/12/19 and a seller stepped in an started a bit of a fight. We see the buyer losing momentum until the week of 10/14/19 where the seller steps in and takes over. Our buyer steps back in on 12/9/19 and starts back up. If you move down to the daily view, looks like we have some more fighting going on with the buyer seeming to be in control. Slight pullback on 1/16/2020 which makes it look like a good time to get in on this money spot.
I see a good S&R line around 44.64 due to the activity(touches). Another good S&R line around 31.31.
I am getting in at 35.86, with my stop being at 31.31 and profit at 44.64.
PAGSD trade ideas
Buying opportunity in brazil e-payment provider PagseguroThe Brazilian digital payment firm for small/medium sized merchant is back after a very difficult Q4. The stock fell sharply after an equity offering (October) and slight revenue/earnings miss in Q3 of very high expectations (November).
the $28 proved to be formidable support zone for stock where very high volumes exchanged. The stock held above its ichimoku cloud, and the weekly MACD is about to turn positive again. On the daily, the stock broke above its steep downtrend line. next resistance zone is between $36.60 (gap fill) and $38. A breach above would further confirm a return to the bulltrend foir a potential retun to $45 in next 3-6 months.
PAGS in a fast growing company with 3 year sales growth of 69% and EPS growth of 147%, for a 12 month fwd P/E of 25x..which seems reasonable below peer Stoneco at 38x. It enjoys a leading position in digital payment service for underserved micro/small/merchants.
PAGS AnalysisPAGS continues to fall, so far we've had a few potential times to buy, but confirmation doesn't go through and we don't get the confirmation we need to pull the trigger.
For now, we sit on our hands and wait for the sell to show it is over, then look for confirmation. One thing I've noted is divergence on the daily, by itself means nothing, but if we can get some more buy signals coming in we can start to build a case.
Zooming out to the weekly chart, we show weekly support in the $25-$30 area, which is where we will look for the turn to happen on the daily.
PAGS Bullish Bounce and Room to Run HigherThe company released early Q3 results, with total Q3 payment volume expected to jump 44.8% to R$29.4B and net income surging 42.5%-46.8% to R$330M - R$340M.
Active merchants are expected to be slightly over 5M, compared to 3.8M last year, with slightly over 300,000 new active merchants added in the quarter.
PAGSCautiously optimistic on PAGS. I will most likely end up doing an option play on PAGS next strong green day, in which I'll sell a Call Credit Spread in preparation for further downward movement. The last gap down shot us right through our upward trend line which is why I'm short term bearish on PAGS. However, I see potential support in the $36 area in which I could see a backtest of the latest major support that was broken in the $42 area. If PAGS gets rejected in the $42 area and returns downward then I see our next major support in the $31 area in which I would expect strong support and would turn bullish on PAGS.
Potential Option Trades:
I would be looking to sell 30-60 day Call Credit Spreads when PAGS enter's the $40-$42 area
**Please trade at your own risk**