PLTR WAIT FOR THE CRACK!The double top is complemented with a bearish rising wedge stuck in a rising bearish F flag.
A straightforward, short setup if you wait for the CRACK!
PLTR trade ideas
PALANTIR Channel Up intact. Eyeing $185 on this rally.Palantir (PLTR) has been trading within a 2.5-year Channel Up and is currently on its most recent Bullish Leg following the approach f the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line).
Having also rebounded on its long-term RSI Support Zone, the buying pressure is the strongest we've seen inside this pattern, having recovered all loses in just 4 weeks.
Given that the most usual rally was +183.03%, we expect this Leg to reach at least $185.
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💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Palantir has a 7 peg ratio, it was cheap at 2. now what?palantir stock is trading at 7x its growth rate in pe, over 200 pe.
Warren Buffett and Peter Lynch would hate this valuation, even though the business is great.
Id be a buyer at 33, roughly where the 200 week or 1000 day moving average is, but thats because I want bargain prices and growth stocks.
Potential W PLTRWeekly has a double top formation but if it can survive and not retrace much more than 30-40% from the top it could play out a W pattern which is one of the most bullish around
into the close May 5Some possible Bearish implications, but still the bias is up and another move higher can occur into tomorrow.
PLTR NEVER disappoints Market Context
NASDAQ:PLTR | Current Price: $120.28
1-Month Move: +50.83% (from $82.30)
1-Year Move: +449.91% (from $22.60)
Options Data
IV Rank: 77.2 (juicy premiums )
Put/Call Ratio: 0.90 (slightly bullish tilt )
Max Pain: $115.00
High OI: $125 calls , $110 puts
Trade Setup
Strategy: Single-leg, naked call (bullish, defined risk)
Instrument: PLTR
Direction: CALL
Strike: $130.00 (premium $0.85, fits $0.50–$1.00 band)
Expiry: 2025-05-09 (first weekly post-earnings)
Entry Price: $0.85
Entry Timing: Pre-earnings close (2025-05-05)
Profit Target: $1.70 (~100% gain )
Stop Loss: $0.43 (~50% loss )
See you after earnings.
BEST Ai Signals on the market :)
Chapter 4: “The Winds Shift”The morning sun had barely risen when PLTR stood once again atop its hard-won ground at $119.85.
Behind it lay the shattered green line, now a path paved by victory; ahead, the final gates of $122 gleamed, radiant yet distant.
But as the warrior gazed toward those heights, a subtle chill crept through the air.
The wind — once warm and pushing at its back — began to shift.
Something unseen stirred.
At first, it was a faint resistance, like climbing a hill with each step heavier than the last.
Buyers pressed forward, but their strength no longer carried the same force.
The candles wavered, flickering between green and red, as if uncertain which direction fate would choose.
And then…
the clouds gathered.
A sudden, sharp gust swept across the battlefield.
Without warning, a red streak fell from the sky — a swift, merciless strike.
$119… $118… $117.50…
One by one, the levels gave way beneath the weight of the selloff.
The crowd below gasped, their cheers silenced into stunned whispers.
“A pullback,” said the seasoned watchers.
“No — a test.”
The warrior planted its sword at $117.43, steadying itself against the trembling earth.
This was no defeat.
This was the trial between surges, the quiet before the next roar.
Above, the dashed white line — the ascending path toward $122 — remained unbroken, like a promise waiting to be claimed.
Below, the green line shimmered faintly, its support lingering, a reminder of how far they had come.
In this moment, the battle paused.
The bulls gathered their breath, their resolve.
The bears watched from the shadows, unsure if their strike had been enough.
And the market… waited.
A stillness before the next move.
“We’ve pulled back,” whispered the warrior, “but we have not fallen.”
“The path remains.
The sky above is still ours to claim.”
And as the candles narrowed, coiling in quiet preparation, all eyes turned once again to the horizon.
For though the winds had shifted…
the climb was far from over.
Pltr $151 🧠 Palantir Bull Thesis: $136–$150 Short-Term Target (Post-Earnings)
Price Target Range:
Base Target: $136
Stretch Target: $150 (if momentum breakout + macro align)
Catalyst 1: AI/Defense Earnings Blowout
Expected EPS: $0.13 → if actual EPS surprises (e.g., $0.15+), it signals significant operating leverage from AI/Foundry.
Recent Government Deals: NATO, U.S. military, and foreign defense contracts bolster revenue visibility.
Commercial Growth Spike: Analysts expect over 60% YoY growth in commercial sector revenue — if confirmed, valuation multiple expansion becomes justified.
Catalyst 2:
Cup & Handle breakout formed over the last 6 weeks
Break above $124 (previous high) triggers bullish continuation
RSI is resetting from mid-60s — giving room for a momentum ignition
Golden cross: 50EMA crossing above 200EMA last week
📊 If earnings gap the stock above $128, short-covering + AI momentum chase can push a rapid breakout to $136–$150.
Catalyst 3: Options Flow + IV Crush Setup
Implied Volatility > 95% pre-earnings → massive call open interest buildup at $130–$150
Call/Put ratio above 2.3 (bullish skew)
If IV collapses post-earnings and the move is directional, market makers will need to hedge deep OTM calls → gamma squeeze potential
Catalyst 4: Sentiment + Social/Institutional Attention
Palantir trending on Reddit, Twitter, and TikTok
Citadel and BlackRock increased positions in Q1
High institutional ownership (~40%) with increasing fund inflows into AI/Defense names
Quantum Forecast & AI Narrative Momentum
AI stocks (NVDA, SMCI) have led market-wide rallies
Palantir being seen as the “AI software layer for government + enterprise”
CEO Alex Karp has already hinted at "transformational government contracts" and new AI modules — this creates anticipation buying even before guidance is raised
Risk-Reward Snapshot
Case Price Range Probability
Base Bull Case $136 55%
Stretch Case (Gamma Squeeze + Beat + Upgraded Guidance) $150+ 30%
Neutral Post-Earnings Drift $118–124 15%
Risk Factors:
Market-wide risk-off event (Fed, macro surprise)
AI rotation cools off
EPS beats but guidance disappoints
IV crush limits upside unless price gaps violently
If Palantir beats EPS by >15%, raises guidance, and gaps over $128 post-earnings, a momentum/gamma squeeze could push it toward $136–$150, fueled by AI mania, defense exposure, and short positioning.
Want a matching chart or visual post for this thesis?
as always safe Trades
$PLTR Possible bullish setup targeting 102 and 112 by earning!High volume with green candles, RSI breakout, still facing strong resistance at 94-95 , if breakout then targets are 102 and 112 before coming earning report. stop loss at 76 . Good luck!
Chapter 3: “The Skyveil @$116 Shattered” (Buy until $124)The smoke still clung to the air as the dust settled atop $113. Behind them, the battlefield lay littered with broken resistance. But NASDAQ:PLTR did not stop to rest.
No… the warrior lifted its gaze, and there it was:
The green dotted line.
A spectral threshold, shimmering above the plains at $116–$117, a boundary etched by the hands of past momentum. For many, it was a ceiling. For PLTR, it was a dare.
“Cross me,” the line seemed to whisper.
“If you can.”
And so… they marched.
With each step higher, the volume beneath them rumbled like war drums.
Every tick upward: a shield raised, a sword drawn.
$114… $115… $116…
And then — the clash.
The green line wasn’t just a price level.
It was a fortress in the sky.
As PLTR’s price struck its surface, a shockwave rippled through the chart.
Red candles flared, sellers firing their volleys from the ramparts.
The price staggered backward, briefly retreating toward $115.75… $115.50…
But this wasn’t retreat.
This was the drawing back of an arrow before the release.
Suddenly —
A surge of volume.
A roar of momentum.
A candle forged in fire.
A towering green candle burst forth, piercing the green dotted veil, splitting it like thunder cleaving the night.
Stop-losses ignited.
Shorts fled.
Momentum traders piled in, shouting like an army unleashed.
PLTR didn’t just break the green line.
It obliterated it.
The price flew higher: $117… $118… $119.85.
Every level above was no longer resistance —
it was acceleration.
And now, standing tall at $119.85, up +8.5%, the warrior looked beyond.
Ahead shimmered new battlements:
$120… $121… $122.
The final walls before reclaiming the higher kingdom.
The market watched in awe.
“It was never about breaking resistance,” whispered the charts.
“It was about proving the sky was never the limit.”
PLTR stood, sword raised, armor shining in the glow of its momentum.
The green line broken beneath its feet.
The wind at its back.
And as the candles flickered forward, every tick toward $124 felt inevitable.
The battle wasn’t over....
...The conquest had only just begun.
Put sale on PLTRNice drop on earnings. Appears to be a double Bottom on a daily chart. Strong up trend.
This is a nice buy low, sell high opportunity.
Harmonic Shark Pattern and Palantir's Stock CorrectionBased on harmonic analysis, specifically the Shark pattern, the price of Palantir (PLTR) stock may face a potential decline from the $129 mark.
This projection hinges on the identification of a completed Shark pattern, indicating a possible reversal zone.
Within this framework, the Fibonacci ratios of 0.88 and 1.138 are critical levels to observe.
The 0.88 retracement level suggests a potential area for a first retest and possible bounce, while the 1.138 level represents the pattern's leading edge, indicating a possible reversal point after a more significant extension.
Good PalantirianNoticed recently there is very few NASDAQ:PLTR stock for sale on the market. As a good and kind trader I decide to borrow ad sell couple of NASDAQ:PLTR like a good move to provide liquidity to the market and help other traders to obtain so passionately desired Palantir stock.
Dear Palatirians pls don't get me wrong. I'm not betraying our faith, just need to step back for a while
Down to 70$ ?The quarterly report just above expectations
P/E ratio over 600
The double top on the chart
The spending cuts by the US government, which is the main client
All the ingredients are there for a significant decline that could go down to the blue support where the 200-day SMA (blue line) will be located, around $70.
PLTR: Double Top Short?Palantir hit a premium zone and rejected off a weak high (~$125) with strong bearish flow confirmation ($3.1M vs $905K bullish in <30D options). Smart Money Concepts (SMC) signals — including multiple CHoCH and BOS — suggest distribution is underway.
🔻 Bearish Setup (Primary Bias – 65%)
Entry: $110–$112 (supply retest zone)
TP1: $100 (psych + EMA)
TP2: $87.49 (discount zone)
TP3: $71.51 (equilibrium block)
Invalidation: Above $125.50
📈 Bullish Scenario (35%)
Buyers may step in between $100–$106 (EMA cluster)
Breakout above $115 could squeeze toward $125 again
🔎 Volume profile shows topping behavior. Institutional flow favors the short side. Watching for confirmation below $107.
PLTR, It's Been RealAt a high of 125, it's had a great run, but a double top has formed going into earnings and a US government which may be forced into austerity. Insiders have been selling for months with no net buys
- First Price target down to the neckline at 76
- Next price target would be 42 for the last real breakout test
- Final PT would be 24 if the double top played out completely
TD 9 Sell Setup almost cooked High of today's candle gonna be a setup trendline for current sequence. Doesn't guarantee price drop but at least it may end up with 1-4 candle correction. As I post before I've already took some short position last Friday.
From Gut to Algorithm: How AI Is Changing the Game for TradersArtificial Intelligence isn't just changing tech — it’s rewriting the rules of trading and investing.
What used to be the domain of seasoned floor traders and intuition-driven bets is now increasingly dominated by algorithms, machine learning models, and predictive analytics.
Here is how AI changing the markets — and what it means for traders like you.
📈 AI in Action: How It’s Used in Markets
AI impacts trading in ways both seen and unseen. Here’s how:
Algorithmic Trading:
High-frequency trading (HFT) firms use AI to make thousands of trades per second, exploiting tiny inefficiencies.
Sentiment Analysis:
AI scans news articles, social media, and earnings calls to gauge market mood before humans even blink.
Predictive Analytics:
Machine learning models digest millions of data points to forecast stock movements, currency fluctuations, and market trends.
Portfolio Management:
Robo-advisors like Betterment or Wealthfront use AI to automatically rebalance portfolios — making decisions humans might overthink.
Risk Management:
Banks and hedge funds use AI to predict and manage market risks faster than traditional risk teams ever could.
🤖 Why AI Is a Game-Changer for Traders
AI isn’t just about speed. It's about edge.
✅ Processing Power:
AI can analyze complex patterns across decades of historical data — something a human could never do in a lifetime.
✅ Emotionless Trading:
AI doesn’t panic, get greedy, or revenge trade. It executes the plan — consistently.
✅ Adaptive Strategies:
Machine learning models evolve over time, adjusting to changing market conditions without needing a human hand.
⚠️ The Dark Side: Risks and Challenges
AI isn’t magic. It introduces new risks into markets:
Flash Crashes:
Algorithms can amplify volatility — causing sudden, violent moves like the 2010 Flash Crash.
Overfitting:
AI models might "learn" patterns that don’t actually exist, leading to disastrous real-world trades.
Market Homogenization:
If everyone uses similar AI models, trading strategies become crowded — making the market more fragile.
Ethical Concerns:
Who is accountable if an AI trader manipulates a market unintentionally? Regulators are still catching up.
🧠 What This Means for You
Whether you’re a day trader, swing trader, or long-term investor, understanding AI is becoming a competitive necessity.
Retail traders are starting to access AI-powered tools once reserved for institutions.
Custom indicators, predictive models, and smart portfolio managers are more available than ever.
But remember: AI is a tool, not a crystal ball.
Human judgment, risk management, and emotional discipline still matter.
In the end, the best traders will be those who can combine machine intelligence with human intuition.
in conclution:
Markets have always rewarded those who adapt.
AI isn’t replacing traders — it’s changing what trading looks like.
The future belongs to those who can learn faster, adapt smarter, and trade sharper.
Stay curious.
Stay strategic.
Stay ahead.
put together by: @currencynerd
courtesy of: @TradingView
Chapter 1: PLTR's Comeback (Buy)In the land of Wall Street, PLTR was a warrior that had been knocked down but not defeated. After a rough battle the day before, where bears pushed it deep into the trenches (the big drop from above $115), it found itself walking wounded near the $107 valley.
But then something changed.
A small but determined army of buyers started lifting it from the depths, forming a staircase of higher lows ...step by step... each bounce catching on the red upward slanted support line, like hands reaching up from the crowd.
Though the sky was still clouded by blue dashed downtrend lines (resistance clouds of the past), the price began pushing closer to the walls of the bear fortress around $110.
Today, a breakthrough happened:
For the first time in a while, PLTR climbed back over $110, piercing the orange dashed resistance like a sword cutting through weak armor.
The candles stood taller, the volume whispering the promise of strength...not explosive yet, but steady like a brewing rebellion.
The stock was now above the short-term moving averages (green and red lines curling upward), signaling momentum was turning.
The yellow dashed line up ahead (at $113–$114) stood like the gates of a higher kingdom ...the next mission.
But right here, right now, NASDAQ:PLTR was no longer fighting below the fortress walls. It had scaled them.
Chapter 2: “The Siege of $113” (BUY) (LONG)As the sun rose over the battlefield of the premarket, a new fire ignited in the heart of $NASDAQ:PLTR. No longer crawling beneath the walls, no longer whispering hope in the shadows — this morning, it stood tall, armor glinting, sword raised, its banner flying at $112.44.
The crowd of traders watched, holding their breath. For the first time in days, the warrior had not just broken the outer defenses…
…it was now staring down the gatekeepers of $113.
Above it loomed the yellow dashed ramparts — the fortified resistance of the bears, the final barricade before reclaiming the highlands of $114 and beyond.
Behind those walls, the bears sharpened their claws, watching the advancing price with growing unease. Their fortress had once been impenetrable. But today… cracks were showing.
And then — a surge.
The premarket volume roared like a war horn. Green candles marched forward, beating against the yellow line like a battering ram. Each tick upward was a shout:
“We’re not backing down.”
“We’re taking back what’s ours.”
The price hovered at $112.44 — tense, ready, coiled like a spring. Every trader, every algorithm, every fund manager watching knew:
This was the moment. The critical battle.
PLTR Just Had a Rug Pull – Here’s What I’m Watching👀
So PLTR had a solid ru lately — we broke out of that long downtrend in April, started building higher lows, and ripped all the way to the $125 zone. But yesterday? Oof. Big red candle straight off resistance. That move flushed through the trendline and parked price right around $108 — a level we really need to hold or it starts to look weak.
🧠 My Thought Process:
* Daily Chart shows we’re still in an overall uptrend since March, but this latest pullback is sharp. MACD is starting to roll over, and Stoch RSI already crossed down. I don’t like that combination when we’re at resistance.
* 1H Chart confirms the break of the rising trendline. We dropped fast on volume, found a floor around $107–108, and now we’re just consolidating. Could be a base forming — or a bear flag.
🧲 GEX and Options Insight:
* Gamma ma shows $121–125 as the heavy call resistance zone. That’s our ceiling for now.
* On the downside, $100 is massive PUT support, and there’s a wall sitting at $98.72, which I think could be a magnet if bulls don’t step up.
* GEX is super bearish right now — three red circles, and CALL$ is up at 26.7%, meaning there’s a good amount of overhead pressure. IV rank is also high, so premiums are inflated.
⚔️ Trade Ideas I’m Considering:
1. Bearish short-term:
If we break below $107, I might go for a Put debit spread targeting $100–98. That setup keeps risk-defined and aligns with the GEX magnet zone.
2. Neutral bounce play:
If we reclaim $110+ and start seeing strength with volume, maybe a short-dated Call scalp up to $115, but I’d be quick to cut it. That GEX wall at $121 is brutal resistance.
🔁 Summary:
Right now, PLTR is at a decision zone. The bulls lost momentum, and the options flow is leaning bearish. If we get a bounce, ’m not chasing unless we clear $111–113 with strength. Otherwise, I’ll be watching for a grind lower toward $100–98.
This week might be chop, so I’ll stay nimble.
Disclaimer: This is just my view and how I’m planning. Do your own DD and manage your risk.
PLTR | Neutral-to-Short | Overvaluation | (May 2025)PLTR | Neutral-to-Short | Overvaluation + Hype Exhaustion Risk | (May 2025)
1️⃣ Short Insight Summary:
Palantir has been riding the AI hype wave, but valuations are extremely stretched. Despite strong growth, price action shows signs of slowing — making this a "watch closely" rather than "chase blindly" setup.
2️⃣ Trade Parameters:
Bias: Watching for short setup — not entering yet
Entry Zone: If price retests $19–20 and stalls again
Stop Loss: Above $121.50 (breakout continuation risk)
TP1 (potential short): $117.00 — minor structure support
TP2: $15.50 — deeper pullback zone
TP3 (optional): $113.90 — if broader correction plays out
3️⃣ Key Notes:
✅ Fundamentals at a Glance:
Revenue: $2.87B | Net Income: ~$460M
Market Cap: $291B (!) — over 10x revenue, signals extreme overvaluation
P/S Ratio: 19x
Price to Cash Flow: 272x — typical range for healthy companies is 20–40
EPS and Book Value: Weak vs market cap (Tangible BV: $2.13)
Beta: 2.45 — very volatile
✅ Business Model:
Palantir builds AI-driven software for government and commercial use. Notably, government revenue and commercial segments both grew ~40% YoY — great performance, but possibly priced in already.
❌ Current Market Behavior:
Everyone's talking about PLTR — hype levels are extremely high
Price currently sitting near previous all-time highs
Technicals show signs of exhaustion — money is slightly flowing out on 30min charts
Daily chart still bullish, but 4H shows price stalling — a correction seems likely
A dip to ~$19 or lower (4–5% pullback) would be normal, even healthy
❌ Short Setup Caution:
Although the chart leans bearish short term, this is a hype-driven stock. Fighting it blindly with a short could be risky. If a correction does set in, it's more likely to be a measured move rather than a full trend reversal — for now.
4️⃣ Follow-up Note:
I’ll be watching for a short opportunity if rejection confirms near $20–21. No position for now — observing price behavior closely as hype may still carry it higher in the short term.
Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research. This content may include enhancements made using AI.
