Mark up On RIOT STOCKHERE I AM CHARTING For Riot stock to end the year? and also projected area to pay attention to and conformations along the way to purchase stock, purchase options, or sell cash secured puts? which route makes the most money?
RIOTD trade ideas
Breakout imminent. Time to play catch up.Bitcoin has moved a bunch whilst these stocks lagged. A big divergence in price appreciation. NDX is bottoming out. So is the S&P.. as long as bitcoin holds price up here these stocks could easily run 150% - my prediction is 25$ before a pull back to 15
RIOT MARA UPDATE FROM OCTOBER.Hello all just doing an update from my previous idea in October regarding NASDAQ:MARA & $RIOT.
In October I took 3x option contracts.
1x NASDAQ:MARA 4$ 19 APR 24 Call
2x NASDAQ:RIOT 5$ 19 APR 24 Call
Currently I have sold 1x RIOT Call for 1,010$ which was a 100% return almost returning me all of my initial entry, and I am still holding 1 of each, currently the P&L went from $1400 inital, to $3,388.
Resulting in $1988 profit so far. 3 month P&L 137%
Bless up traders, it's time to eat :)
Love - Mindless
RIOT Is A Sleeping GiantI have been watching RIOT for a long time. Obviously it is a great options play assuming the BTC ETF is approved. This thing will run like no other when BTC reaches a new ATH. Right now it is lagging behind and is providing one last chance before it really moves. NASDAQ:RIOT
RIOT 15% minimum this weekBitcoin HAS 18 MONTH HIGHS so it seems only right RIOT should be @ 18 month highs for that to happen we need another 70% But...... we have only one obstacle left that is a weak high made in April 2023 @ 14.24 i believe we will test that by midday Monday and break it by Tuesday i expect to be above 15$ by Friday .... conservatively
Riot is testing the channel with BTC uptrendRiot has been building bullish momentum towards the upper channel we have had drawn for a while. The RIOT to BTC discount was pretty heavy a few weeks ago. We are seeing a breakout of the RSI trend and lots of buyside volume. The 4 EMAs are starting to curl upward and this is very bullish. If this follows my BTC 40k plan I expect Riot to break above this red resistance to the two dashed greens lines at least ( price target 1 & 2). My 12$ call thesis for Dec 12th has worked out despite the hater that called me a fool ; D
Riot on uptrend into ETF seasonRiot is on an overall uptrend on the weekly chart. The stock has been all over the place and extremely volatile, not always trending with BTC directly. The weekly RSI is taking a shot at a contraction breakout currently and volume is on a major uptrend. A previous trend line that served as support must be taken out as resistance for this move to really gain steam. My 12$ calls have printed since my posting regarding that. Three weekly EMAs have been taken out with only the 200 remaining. 200 moving averages being taken to the upside generally signal a macro reversal in momentum. If Bitcoin really hits my 40k price target for December, I see the teal resistance being tested which is 19-20$ for December. This area is also the .382 fib that was rejected which serves as a harsh resistance. Remember these price targets are for the price to be hit, not held. I still standby a 40k BTC then correction to previous resistances.
RIOT Long Entry RIOT is currently sitting at clear S/R level and back testing the 200 day MA as support. Bitcoin is either going to continue through $35k which will take Riot back to highs OR come back down to test $32k which would be a clear get out of this trade before any of the stops hit.
Probably going to close that gap between 10.05 and here so might get a better entry before the stop area. Anything under 50 daily MA is a no go (currently sitting at about $9.70)
R/R on this is insane. IMO.. DYOR!
Long Trade in RIOTCrypto stocks are on the move, and Riot Blockchain (RIOT) is setting up for a potential breakout buy here. The stock carries a relative strength rating of 98/100, putting it in the top 2% of stocks based on performance.
Crypto and digital payment companies was the top-performing sector over the last 2 months and ranked 2nd over the last 3 months. In other words, there is tremendous group strength here.
What I want to see is a strong move through the $12 area on above-average volume. This would be my trigger to buy in anticipation of a quick rally higher.
RIOT - one more slideI am expecting a slide to between 6-7 dollar area and starting of the breakout.
My target is 125$.
DCA-ed, almost full postition for 2025.
Riot facing MA resistanceRiot is in a position to break through the MAs with strength i have indicatedc the next resistance zone with a box on chart i expect a rejection there and a retest on the moving average cluster for support and strength and the n a continuation upward
Riot Platforms (RIOT: NASDAQ)Riot Blockchain (RIOT), a cryptocurrency miner, exhibited positive performance by mining 362 Bitcoins last month, marking a 9% increase from the previous month. The deployed hash rate also showed consistent month-over-month growth.
Investors are eyeing the Bitcoin halving in April 2024, historically associated with price rallies. The bullish stance on RIOT is upheld above the support range of $9.30-$9.80, with an upside target in the range of $19.00-$20.00.
$RIOT, more downside around $8 before higher?As you can see on the chart, NASDAQ:RIOT has formed a rising channel and has broken to the downside and is currently testing the channel as resistance. Should it not be able to make it back into the channel, then my bias leans towards more downside before higher prices.
As of now, I lean towards the lows getting retested or broken and a bottom forming around the $8 region.
After that takes place, then I think NASDAQ:RIOT is primed for a large move higher in which we should see prices go 100%+ into the $15-$17 region.
Let's see if/how it plays out.
Riot continues uptrend after pullbackI got some flack for my 12 $ calls in december chart but the fact remains my entry was strong and the stock approaches the strike. I still hold a 13.8$ price target but am expecting a BTC pullback soon, I will be moving my calls out to January if riot really pumps today.
RIOT: Things might get worse before they get betterIn my last analysis, I was waiting to see how price reacts from the Oct lows. If BTC was moving higher but RIOT was not, it would be the warning sign. And things might be playing out that way. Unfortunately, price went too high up to still be an ending diagonal structure, which I was hoping for. Instead, now things are looking like a much larger ABC pattern with wave B either complete or may make another quick spike up before breaking down. Now, things can get ugly, depending on how fast and how far price may drop, but I would hope for it to hold the $7.5 pivot. If not, there are several fib support areas along with volume support areas. Best course of action would be wait some more. I don't want to short at this time because earnings were good and BTC keeps moving higher, RIOT can also keep moving up. Structure wise, this doesn't look to be an optimal spot to trade. If price does drop, I will be buying with both hands. I will buy the shares, DCA and use options to hedge risk and also bring the cost down. As long as price stays over $3.25 low, it should provide hefty gains in the next year or two.
$RIOT Attractively Valued Ahead of Bitcoin TailwindsAlthough Bitcoin mining stocks are outperforming the market so far this year, they have been on a steady decline since early August. Riot Platforms, Inc. (Nasdaq: RIOT) is one of these stocks that have been hit hard as its stock is down nearly 45% from the highs it reached last July. That said, this dip could be an opportunity to go long on the stock ahead of 2 major Bitcoin catalysts that should boost the cryptocurrency’s price. The first catalyst is the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs as analysts expect the SEC to approve spot ETF applications later this year. In addition, we are approaching the Bitcoin halving which has seen the cryptocurrency spike after the past 3 halvings. Given our $20 price target on RIOT stock, investors may find the current levels an attractive entry point into the Bitcoin miner’s stock.
RIOT Fundamentals
Bitcoin Tailwinds Will Help Miners Rebound
While some investors believe holding Bitcoin may be the best strategy to participate in this sector, Bitcoin miners have proven to provide higher returns. On a YTD basis, Bitcoin is up 84.5%, while RIOT stock more than tripled gaining nearly 155% over the same period. This isn’t exclusive to Riot only as other miners like Marathon (Nasdaq: MARA) and Hut 8 (Nasdaq: HUT) are also up by 117% and 118%, respectively.
As such, investing in Bitcoin miners, especially after their massive drop since early August, could be opportune as it seems likely that Bitcoin is heading into a major bull market. The most important catalyst for Bitcoin is the upcoming halving that is expected to occur next April. This event is significant since the supply output will be cut in half which means that block rewards will decrease from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC.
With that in mind, Bitcoin prices have historically benefited from halving events as data shows that the cryptocurrency’s price spiked before the previous 3 halvings. This is due to Bitcoin’s inflation rate declining with every halving. Before the first halving, Bitcoin surged by as much as 234% since the start of 2012 until the event occurred on November 8.
However, a bigger movement occurred after the halving where Bitcoin increased by more than 9400%, reaching a then all-time high of $1165 in November 2013.
The second halving occurred on July 9, 2016, and in the year prior to the event, Bitcoin increased by as much as 400%.
Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency surged more than 2948% in the year after the halving before entering a bear market.
This trend also occurred prior to the third halving that occurred on May 11, 2020. Over the year prior to the event, Bitcoin increased by as much as 291%.
Following the occurrence of the event, Bitcoin went on to reach its all-time high, increasing by 690% in the process in November 2021, before entering the “crypto winter” of 2022.
That being said, Bitcoin appears to be on the same trajectory since the cryptocurrency is currently up nearly 100% from the lows it reached in November 2022.
However, it should be noted that these major runs take time to materialize, so Bitcoin price may not be impacted by the halving event immediately.
The other major catalyst for Bitcoin is the likely SEC approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs. The SEC has previously denied applications for spot Bitcoin ETFs. However, its stance may change after a Court of Appeals ruled that the SEC was wrong to reject Grayscale’s (GBTC) proposed Bitcoin ETF, a ruling the SEC decided not to appeal.
The SEC’s decision likely paves the way for the approval of other spot Bitcoin ETFs, including Grayscales’s. As is, House lawmakers recently urged the SEC to approve all outstanding applications “immediately”, in a letter sent by 4 members of the House Financial Services Committee to SEC Chair Garry Gensler.
Meanwhile, Wall Street analysts expect the SEC to approve spot Bitcoin ETF applications before January 10, 2024. This is mainly due to major institutions filing their applications for spot Bitcoin ETFs including BlackRock, Fidelity, Ark Invest, Invesco, Valkyrie, and others. Given the size of these institutions, Morgan Creek Capital’s CEO – Mark Yusko – expects the approval of spot ETFs to result in an influx of $300 billion into Bitcoin.
This projection could lead to a major run in Bitcoin price considering that the percentage of total Bitcoin supply held by long-term investors is at an all-time high at 80.34%. This is mainly due to the expected demand outpacing the amount of Bitcoin available to trade.
RIOT’s Edge
Although the aforementioned catalysts will certainly impact all Bitcoin miners, Riot is well-positioned to benefit the most due to its sound margins and cost management. According to its latest Q2 earnings report, Riot’s average cost of mining is $8,389 per Bitcoin. In comparison, its competitor Marathon had an average cost of $18,873 per Bitcoin, more than double that of Riot. These elevated costs are impacting Marahon’s gross margin which was 33.3% in the first half of the year, while Riot’s mining operations had a gross margin of 53.4% over the same period, despite having lower production.
That said, a reason why Riot is operating more efficiently is that it operates in Texas. Thanks to the state’s unregulated electricity market, consumers are allowed to sell unused energy to the grid. As such, Riot can earn power curtailment credits to offset costs which is extremely helpful when energy costs are more profitable than mining operations.
Riot has already utilized this advantage as it received $31.7 million last August by providing 84 thousand megawatt hours of energy to the market in Texas to reduce overall demand, lower consumer prices, and stabilize the grid during a heatwave. The miner also received $13.5 million in credits in September due to the same reasons which are the equivalent of mining 511 Bitcoin based on the average price of Bitcoin in September.
Another advantage of operating in Texas is the lower power costs as the average Texas commercial electricity rate is 9.07 ¢/kWh – nearly 31% lower than the national average of 13.11 ¢/kWh, per the US Energy Information Administration.
Given Riot’s impressive cost structure, it appears to be ready to face the challenges brought by the upcoming Bitcoin Halving. While the halving will potentially have a positive impact on Bitcoin prices, that may not be the case for all miners. Some investors argue that the increased rate of mining difficulty brought about by the halving will lead to more costs for miners.
While this point is valid to a degree, it should be noted that Bitcoin’s price has historically increased in the months leading to the Bitcoin halving as discussed earlier. As such, the amount of Bitcoin needed to be mined to be profitable is also less.
Therefore, having a lower electricity cost than competitors starts to become a major competitive advantage for Riot since its power costs are less than most miners due to its location in Texas. In this way, its margins could further improve in case Bitcoin goes on a similar run leading to the upcoming halving as it did the past 3 halvings.
Price Target
With its stock trading at $11.39, Riot may be undervalued at current levels. Since the miner doesn’t have any long-term debt on its balance sheet, its book value amounts to more than $1.2 billion. This means that at its latest reported outstanding share count of 185.3 million, its book value per share is $6.7, leading to a P/B ratio of 1.7. Considering that an adequate P/B ratio is 3, Riot should be trading at $20.09, representing a 76.3% upside.
Total Assets $1,358,930,000
Total Liabilities $118,020,000
Book Value $1,240,910,000
OS 185,305,831
BVPS $6.70
Share Price $11.39
P/B Ratio 1.70
Projected Share Price $20.09
Risks
There are 2 major risks to the bullish thesis on RIOT stock. The first risk is Bitcoin prices not increasing as anticipated due to the upcoming halving. That could have catastrophic impacts on miners since they would realize less revenue while their costs would increase due to the greater mining difficulty. As a result, any chance of Riot becoming profitable would be non-existent.
The second risk to the bullish thesis is if the SEC doesn’t approve the spot Bitcoin ETF applications next year as analysts expect. Despite the court ruling in favor of Grayscale in its case against the SEC, it doesn’t guarantee that the commission will approve the applications it has on hand. As such, this could be an issue that requires an intervention by lawmakers to set frameworks for spot Bitcoin ETFs.
Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart, RIOT stock is in a neutral trend as it is trading in a sideways channel between $10.3 and $12. Looking at the indicators, the stock is above the 200, 50, and 21 MAs which is a bullish signal. However, the RSI is overbought at 70 and the MACD is approaching a bearish crossover. Based on this, the stock may retest its $10.3 support as profit-taking occurs which could be an ideal entry point for bullish investors.
As for the fundamentals, RIOT stock appears to be a bargain at current levels given its potential to reach $20. Such an increase in the stock’s value would be mainly driven by the anticipated increase in Bitcoin price due to the upcoming SEC decision on spot Bitcoin ETFs and the halving that is expected to occur next April. Therefore, crypto bulls may find RIOT stock to be attractively valued at current levels given Bitcoin miners’ history of outperforming Bitcoin in terms of percentage gains.
RIOT Forecast
To conclude, Riot is well-positioned to capitalize on a potential Bitcoin rally ahead of the upcoming halving next April which could be fueled by the SEC approving spot Bitcoin ETFs. The reason why Riot may benefit the most from these catalysts is its industry-leading average cost per mined Bitcoin which is the result of its lower power costs since it operates in Texas. This advantage will be more important when the Bitcoin halving occurs since the more difficult mining difficulty will lead miners to incur more costs. With no debt on its balance sheet, RIOT stock should be trading near $20.09 based on its BVPS and P/B ratio, which is why the current share price could be an attractive entry point into the promising Bitcoin miner.
Riot having a RiotNASDAQ:RIOT repeating cycle following $BTC. Based off previous run and its FIB's, similar tracking would result in a $100+ run. 3M time from to condense data.
Riot falling wedge, bullish breakout soonRIOT looking poised for a bullish breakout. Gap now closed, retesting wedge upper trend line, and a promising RSI divergence all hinting at an imminent rally.
Supporting evidence: Bitcoin closed out last month above $34,5K. RIOT, MARA and other mining stocks have yet to react in kind.
Riot looking for another restest of 200SMARiot has been gaining steam but remains at a steep discount on the Bitcoin ratio. I entered calls around 8$ on the bounce and have held strong for the hopeful rally this week. RSI is picking up steam and looks to be assisting with the upward pressure nicely. Teal or green resistance needs to be taken next, my price target is still 13.8$ for coming weeks.
RIOT: will it make one last low or push up from hereEW structure is preferring one lower move to finish the ending diagonal wave C between $7-$8. However, BTC is not done with its move yet. The clue will lie on RIOT moves relative to BTC. If we see BTC making new highs in the next week or two but RIOT staying flat or not breaking highs then most likely the wave 5 down is coming. But it will be a screaming buy at those levels. I price breaks higher, then most likely the downside move is over, and every dip should be buyable in the medium term 2-3 months.
RIOT UP but sell the news on SEC ETF ReviewCrypto universe bid on prospect of SEC ruling pluss seasonality pluss fiscal funds still being allocated and breadth minus spectacular seven leaves rest of S&P 500 (S&P493 lol) P/E ratio at about 15 times and that is a long term fair value. $4,200 is critical level right below 200DMA held the other day and Santa clause rally pluss Israeli/Hamas war seems "contained" at this point as Israel pauses for humanitarian purposes after Biden embraces fellow president Netanyahu in spite democrat division on the subject in spite historically supportive. A change in geopolitics, a break of the $4200 S&P critical "Put-Wall" level, and/or a news headline on a ruling from SEC on the Crypto ETF are all "sell-the-news" events, to be looking out for.
Bull flag on riot longSmall bull flag forming on riot long, the riot to btc discount is still lagging by a lot.
