6 Corrective Structures on ROKU. What can we learn?Today we bring a post about finding a similar situation to the current one in the past. Why is this useful? Because if we understand the resolution of a pattern that has already happened several times before, we can start using them to know what we want to wait for before trading.
We are using a Logharitmic chart so we can see the same proportions of % bullish and bearish movements despite the nominal movement.
What are the conclusions we have based on this?
-We have 5 examples of situations where the price dropped between 25 - 40 days with durations between 28 - 60 days.
- 3 of them provided bullish resolutions with great % gains after the breakout, 2 of them provided fake signals
-If we create adequate filters, we can avoid at least one of the fake outs (like waiting for the breakout of the more external trendline of the correction and then looking for a small throwback on a lower timeframe)
-The rawest scenario is one in which you trade all of these structures without waiting for confirmations. Using that idea, even if you had 2 stops, you could manage to take profits on the 3 scenarios with at least a 1:2 Risk Reward Ratio. Imagine developing setups with much more accuracy.
We hope this type of information can help you develop your own study cases on this type of asset to project resolutions to what is happening right now. Thanks!
ROKU trade ideas
ROKU Short PutROKU is oversold and down 25% from the highs. While it is definitely overvalued both in its sector and tech in general, considering the growth prospect, it seems justified.
It has found support on the 322 level. There is overhead resistance and the 61.8% fib line at $380. If it reverses there and continues to fall further, we have the 127% fib level at $277 followed support around $250 and lastly the 200 SMA at $242.
Trade Idea:
Short the 225 Put expiring 4/16 for at least $1.15 Credit. It has a very high 95% PoP but a relatively high BPE of $2250. In order for the Put to expire ITM, ROKU needs to tank 33% from the current level or over 52% from the ATH. This should not only allow you to buy into ROKU at a discount if you get assigned, but a 2 SD (95%) move is often accompanied by at least a small short term reversal as people buy the dip and average down. Regardless, this is a solid plan that offers you a 95% chance of keeping the $115 you collect in premium, and a 5% probability that you are assigned ROKU shares at a 50% discount from its highs.
ABC BullishStop loss below C.
Former parabolic arc, recently that is. Pulled back a bit past the .618, depending on what level you start the arc.
Life is a highway I guess..The market seems like it is on a super high speed highway. Like maybe faster than I can drive unless I had a TESLA of course. Just be careful of any redlights along the way (o:
Not a recommendation
It feels like someone is trying to squeeze every drop out of the lemon before it shrinks? I am just being careful. Getting in and getting out. I guess you have to go with it, but with extreme caution, observing the yield signs along the way.
- ROKU - Retest?ROKU is in an area that make it perfect for LONG term holds.
I suspect a retest will hold at this price and we will continue to follow the main trend line.
Keep in mind this is an aggressive trend line, If these levels do not hold we could find better support around $280.
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Thanks
ROKU to test long term trend support?Greetings All,
Please see my linked idea for the big picture. I'm simply illustrating the anticipated target on the daily chart. ROKU could reverse at (3) areas, the 50% retracement, 200MA, or the 61.8% retracement which coincides with long-term trend support. I anticipate a re-test of long-term support ($250). I also appreciate the nice $425 gap created on 23 Feb, because ROKU will close it some day.
Happy Trading!
Disclaimer. My ideas are for informational purposes only. My ideas do not constitute solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. You should not construe any such information or other comments as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. There are risks associated with investing in securities. Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, options and money market funds involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Please exercise your own due diligence.
$ROKU - Possible Head & Shoulders- Although i don't like shorting US stocks , lots of the growth stocks are showing bearish 'head and shoulders' formations...
- After the excessive runs, i wouldn't be surprised to see them pull back to more "decent" levels...
-- MANAGE YOUR RISK - -
Disclaimer: All ideas are my opinion and should not be taken as financial advice.
ROKU Stock 21/03/21 Analysis 4H ChartNASDAQ:ROKU
- Trend Analysis -
📑Value: 0/20
📈Growth: 20/20
💰Profitability: 10/20
🚀Momentum: 18/20
💸Earnings: 16/20
🖇️Total Score: 68/100
Data:
Volume 3.55M
Average Volume (3 months) 4.53M
Previous Close $341.95
Open $343.00
Shares Outstanding 111.08M
Technicals:
( Simple Moving Average )
10D SMA $354.28 (-1.91%)
50D SMA $406.65 (-14.54%)
200D SMA $252.30 (+37.74%)
Market Cap $43.91B
Total Debt $438.32M
Cash $1.09B
Enterprise Value $43.26B
Revenue $1.78B
Gross Profit $808.22M
Net Income -
EPS Diluted -$0.14
Free Cash Flow / Share $0.53
Bearish divergence. Be carefulGreetings All,
ROKU has experience tremendous price appreciation over the last couple of years. On the monthly charts, volume is decreasing while price is simultaneously moving higher. This is divergence - the bearish type. The shadows (candle wicks) of the previous two months indicate that bulls wanted to more upside, but the demand (i.e buyers) could not hold ROKU at that price point. The solid green trendline is a support, and ROKU may retrace to this trendline, which places the price point around $272, a 50% retracement from the ATH at $486.72. ROKU may even retrace to $221, which is near the bottom of the 2 year linear channel.
The bollinger bands illustrate that ROKU will eventually return to mean (blue line), which is slightly below the 61.8% retracement level.
The monthly swing chart indicate ROKU’s pivot is around the $250, slightly below the 50% retracement level. The decreasing volume is more pronounced in this chart.
In the weekly chart, there is a head & shoulders pattern (bearish) at R1, and resistance at R2 is pronounced. You can also see the volume at those price points are eclipsed at S1 and S2, which serve as retracement targets. Thus, the targets are $250, $221, and $150 if we see a 78% retracement.
On the daily chart, ROKU could return to the pivot at $419, or higher to close the gap at $437 and retest resistance at R1. Or, ROKU could complete the right shoulder of the H&S pattern, and fall to the $270 level, testing long-term trend support.
I’m bullish on the company overall, but we may experience technical corrections on price in the coming weeks and months. Thus, my outlook is bearish within the next quarter (3 months) as a general timeframe.
Happy Trading!
Disclaimer. My ideas are for informational purposes only. My ideas do not constitute solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. You should not construe any such information or other comments as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. There are risks associated with investing in securities. Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, options and money market funds involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Please exercise your own due diligence.