Tesla Taps the Golden Zone – Is the Launch Sequence Engaged?Tesla (TSLA) has shown textbook precision by respecting the golden zone after a significant sweep of previous highs. Rather than violating the last HTF low—which would’ve hinted at deeper downside—price instead retraced cleanly into the OTE (Optimal Trade Entry) range and reacted with strong bullish intent.
This move indicates a healthy retracement rather than weakness, suggesting a continuation to the upside. Confirmation of this potential bullish leg would be a sustained close above the 272–300 level, which aligns with previous buyside liquidity zones and Fibonacci confluence.
Key Observations:
- Golden Zone respected: Price bounced cleanly between the 62–79% fib levels.
- HTF low protected: No violation of higher timeframe bullish structure.
- Volume spike supports the reversal move.
Targets:
- Short-term: 300.61
- Mid-term: 416.67
- Long-term swing: 861.17 (over 255% potential gain)
Conclusion:
Tesla looks set for lift-off 🚀. The reaction at the golden zone and the preservation of structure give high confluence for a potential explosive move higher. Wait for confirmation via price continuation and structure integrity.
As always — DYOR (Do Your Own Research).
TSLA trade ideas
TSLA at a Crossroad: Can 252 Hold or Will It Crack?🔍 Technical Analysis (1H Chart Overview)
TSLA has formed a symmetrical triangle, compressing between an uptrend and a downtrend line. Price is hovering right near the apex, with a key horizontal level at $249.89, where it's showing indecision.
* Support levels:
* $239.67 → Previous demand zone
* $217.11 → Major swing low and last defense for bulls
* Resistance levels:
* $257.85 → Overhead rejection zone
* $276.91 → Major gamma wall and swing high
Volume is thinning out as price coils tighter, suggesting a breakout is imminent.
The RSI is neutral around 50, slowly curving upward, signaling slight bullish momentum building, but no confirmation yet. Price is consolidating on declining volume, which is often a pre-breakout setup.
🔧 Trading Bias:
Watch for breakout above $253 for potential long play toward $258–$265.
Breakdown below $249 flips bias bearish, with a retest of $239 then $230 likely.
⚙️ GEX Option Flow Insights
GEX data shows concentrated gamma resistance at $275–$280, with the highest positive NETGEX sitting right at $275 — that's our Gamma Wall. Above that, market makers become forced buyers, creating a squeeze scenario.
On the downside, there’s a strong PUT wall around $220 and $200, with -50.27% NETGEX at $200 acting as deep support.
Notably:
* IVR: 67.2
* IVx Avg: 108.9
* Call Flow: 15.2%
* GEX Sentiment: ☘️☘️🟢 (Bullish tilt, but not maxed out)
💡 Options Strategy Suggestion:
Consider a debit call spread if price breaks $253 with volume, targeting $265–$275.
If price breaks $249, put debit spreads to $230–$220 could offer solid reward.
🧠 Final Thoughts
TSLA is a coiled spring, and both TA and GEX show we’re at a key decision point. Let price tell you the story — react to breakout or breakdown. Gamma positioning offers high reward potential in both directions.
📌 Stay nimble, plan both scenarios, and use options to your advantage.
TSLA in the coming monthsBased on my analysis using three-month candlestick charts, TSLA is not in a bear market yet. It may test the 202 level and possibly even dip to the 168 area. However, as long as it holds above that range, the outlook remains positive.
The market may be choppy in the coming months, which could present some solid trading opportunities.
Good luck to us all!
TSLA Breakdown Looks Weak! Bearish Momentum Builds Under Key ZonTSLA just broke down from a key structure with rejection under $243 and failed to reclaim it. Price is now stuck in a bearish SMC range and sitting inside a demand zone that’s showing signs of weakening. Here’s how it’s setting up:
📉 Market Structure & SMC
Price is clearly trending inside a downward channel with consecutive break-of-structure (BOS) moves. The most recent bearish BOS confirms continuation, and there has been no clean change-of-character (CHoCH) to suggest bulls are regaining control. Supply remains untouched above $243, while price has now tested the $214–$221 zone multiple times.
📊 Indicators – MACD & Stoch RSI
MACD histogram is fading and showing no momentum crossover. Stochastic RSI is deeply oversold but not turning up yet — this could signal either a pause or a weak bounce before continuation down.
📉 TrendInfo Summary (1H)
The TrendInfo panel is heavily tilted bearish:
Momentum (MACD, RSI, DMI) is all red
Volume remains average but favoring red candles
Fear & Greed sentiment reads at Fear (-14.42)
Final recommendation: Sell (90%)
This confluence supports the bearish thesis unless bulls step in aggressively at $214.
🧠 Options GEX Insight
On the options side, we’re seeing a major wall of negative gamma around the $215–$220 zone — and the highest negative NETGEX / put support sits at $214.25, right where price is hovering.
If this level breaks, gamma flows could accelerate downside volatility toward $200–$210, with no real put wall protection below until $190.
On the flip side, the upside is heavily capped at $237.5 with HVL at that level. The nearest significant resistance lies at $260–$262, aligning with major call walls and the 62% GEX call resistance zone.
IVR is extremely elevated at 137.8, with IVx at 140.2, showing strong option demand and volatility pricing. However, most of the flow is put-heavy (1.6%), suggesting institutions are not betting on a recovery just yet.
🎯 Trade Thoughts & Scenarios
If price bounces here, we may see a short-term move to $230–$237.5 (gap fill or HVL reversion). However, unless TSLA reclaims $243, the broader structure remains bearish and rallies are likely to be sold.
If $214 breaks, that opens downside to $210 and even $200 fast — especially with this kind of GEX structure.
Swing traders can consider shorting failed bounces with tight risk above $230. Intraday scalpers can hunt rejections at $225–$230 zone.
Final Thoughts:
TrendInfo, order flow, and SMC structure are all leaning bearish. TSLA needs a strong shift in sentiment or macro support (like QQQ/SPY bottoming) to reverse this trend. Until then, bears are in control.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and trade responsibly.
$TSLA $160-180? I think..."Technical bounce on NASDAQ:TSLA at 160-180? – Possible long???"
📉 Nasty drop on TSLA, broke below the $250 level.
🎯 Potential short setup now, with a target around $160-180.
That’s where I’ll start buying—if we get a daily or weekly reversal candle, with a stop just below support.
👉 Follow me for more updates on stocks and futures.
TSLA short swing ideaI like the RR in this trade, that's why I am choosing TSLA over others. As we are bearish on current order flow, the price prints are showing bearish movement in the coming days. One possibility is that it might take out buystops before trending lower and I think today's day will give more information on that. However, the technicals are there that favors the trade. Weekly Sibi, Daily SIBI, and H1 breaker + FVG.
TESLA: A Good Trade for Bulls AND BearsTesla has an Elon problem aka a SENTIMENT problem
I am a 100% Technical Trader
I am an avid believer in Elliott Wave Theory and Socionomics
From those perspectives its clear to me that Tesla is in trouble...long term
Tesla went from essentially a meme like stock to a media and Institutional darling
The meteoric rise in the stock was largely because of belief in Elon..the person
Yes his companies have done some pretty amazing things..but if we are honest there are tons of failed promises in their past and now we are seeing competitors start to really make ground
This is showing up in vehicle pricing and units delivered..both trending down
The problem Tesla stock truly has though is that soooooo much of the company sentiment is tied into a belief in Elon- the person..versus the fundamentals of the company and their actual products (cmon we all know LIDAR is better smh)
As his popularity wains... so will Tesla
So with that said the charts are setup to provide opportunities for BOTH BULLS and BEARS over the next few years.
The chart show really clean places to take and hedge positions... but long term BULLS need to be keely aware of the "Trouble" line because if and when it breaks Tesla will be in serious trouble
TSLA 4H Analysis: Technical Outlook1. Price Structure and Trend:
TSLA has been in a clear downtrend since January 2025, dropping from ~$475 to a key support at ~$258. The price is currently consolidating at this level, hinting at a potential pause or reversal.
2. Support and Resistance Levels:
• Support: $258 (current level, with multiple bounces).
• Resistance: $300 (next significant zone, based on prior consolidation).
3. Volatility and Squeeze Indicators:
The "Volatility Squeeze" indicator (on the right) shows red and blue bars. Recent red bars signal a squeeze (low volatility), often preceding sharp moves. The shift to blue bars suggests volatility may be increasing.
4. Action Signals:
• "X" markers (blue and orange) highlight potential entry/exit points. Recent orange "X" marks at the $258 support could indicate a buying opportunity if the price confirms a bounce.
• If support breaks, the next level to watch is ~$225 (previous lows).
5. Conclusion:
TSLA is at a critical juncture. A bounce from $258 could target $300, but a breakdown might lead to $225. Keep an eye on volume and volatility for confirmation. What's your take?
Here is the link to the indicator
Quantum's TSLA Trading Guide 4/13/25Sentiment: Neutral. EV and AI optimism persists, but tariff risks and high valuation concern traders. Chatter split—bulls eye robotaxi, bears see pullback.
Outlook: Neutral, slightly bearish. Options pin $250, with $240 puts active. ICT/SMT eyes $245-$250 buys to $260 if $245 holds. Bearish below $245 risks $240.
Influential News:
Federal Reserve: Two 2025 cuts support growth stocks, positive for $TSLA.
Earnings: Q1 due late April; no update today.
Chatter: Debates tariff impact vs. AI/EV growth.
Mergers and Acquisitions: None; focus on internal projects.
Other: Tariff volatility hit NASDAQ:TSLA ; stock swung (April 3-9).
Indicators:
Weekly:
RSI: ~50 (neutral).
Stochastic: ~45 (neutral).
MFI: ~40 (neutral).
SMAs: 10-day ~$255 (below, bearish), 20-day ~$260 (below, bearish).
Interpretation: Neutral, bearish SMAs signal weakness.
Daily:
RSI: ~48 (neutral).
Stochastic: ~50 (neutral).
MFI: ~45 (neutral).
SMAs: 10-day ~$255 (below, bearish), 20-day ~$260 (below, bearish).
Interpretation: Neutral, bearish SMAs suggest pullback.
Hourly:
RSI: ~45 (neutral).
Stochastic: ~55 (neutral).
MFI: ~50 (neutral).
SMAs: 10-day ~$255 (below, bearish), 20-day ~$260 (below, bearish).
Interpretation: Neutral, stabilizing.
Price Context: $252.31, 1M: +1%, 1Y: +38%. Range $240-$270, testing $250 support.
Options Positioning (May 2025):
Volume:
Calls: $260 (15,000, 60% ask), $270 (12,000, 55% ask). Mild bullish bets.
Puts: $240 (10,000, 70% bid), $245 (8,000, 65% bid). Put selling supports $245.
Open Interest:
Calls: $260 (40,000, +7,000), $270 (30,000, +5,000). Bullish interest.
Puts: $240 (25,000, flat), $245 (28,000, +4,000). Hedging. Put-call ~1.0.
IV Skew:
Calls: $260 (40%), $270 (42%, up 3%). $270 IV rise shows upside hope.
Puts: $240 (35%, down 2%), $245 (36%). Falling $240 IV supports floor.
Probability: 60% $240-$270, 20% <$240.
Karsan’s Interpretation:
Vanna: Neutral (~300k shares/1% IV). IV drop could pressure $250.
Charm: Neutral (~150k shares/day). Pins $250.
GEX: +50,000. Stabilizes range.
DEX: +7M shares, neutral.
Karsan view: GEX holds $240-$270; tariff news key.
ICT/SMT Analysis:
Weekly: Neutral, $240 support, $270 resistance. No $TSLA/ NYSE:NIO divergence.
Daily: Bullish at $250 FVG, targets $260. Bearish < $245.
1-Hour: Bullish >$250, $260 target. MSS at $245.
10-Minute: OTE ($249-$251, $250) for buys, NY AM.
Trade Idea:
Bullish: 50%. ICT/SMT buys $245-$250 to $260. Options show $260 calls. Fed cuts aid.
Neutral: 35%. RSI (~50), SMAs (bearish), $240-$270 range.
Bearish: 15%. Below $240 possible with tariffs. $240 put volume grows.
TSLA Needs More Clear Signs for a Trend Shift
Tesla's price action in 2024 has shown signs of weakness, casting doubt on the strength of its long-term upward trend. After a sharp decline from its peak, the stock is now at a critical juncture where key levels and momentum are in play. Here’s an in-depth look:
Potential Bounce at Key Support: Tesla is currently heading toward the 180/140 support zone, which could act as a pivotal point for a potential rebound. If the stock manages to hold above these levels, it could set the stage for a recovery move toward the 300 resistance zone. The importance of this support level cannot be overstated, as a failure to hold could lead to further downside.
Weak Momentum: Despite attempts at upward movement, Tesla's long-term bullish trend has significantly weakened due to a lack of momentum in 2024. The stock is struggling to build on past gains, and this lack of follow-through is a warning sign for those expecting continued growth. Momentum is a critical factor in maintaining an uptrend, and without it, the path of least resistance may be down.
Breaking Below Key Levels: A significant development is the breakdown below the 300 level, a key psychological and technical level for Tesla. This breach signals a shift in market sentiment, and until the price can reclaim this level, the bearish pressure is likely to persist. Reversals from such levels often require strong confirmation, which has not yet materialized for Tesla.
Trading Below Moving Averages: Tesla is now trading below both its 200-day and 20-day moving averages, further confirming the weakness in the trend. These moving averages act as important indicators of market sentiment and trend direction. Being below these averages suggests that momentum is against the stock, and the risk of further declines remains high unless a significant reversal occurs.
50% Decline from Peak: Since reaching its peak at 488.54, Tesla has seen a 50% decline, and there are no clear signs of a reversal in the short term. This prolonged decline suggests that the bearish trend is still in control, and the stock must show stronger signs of recovery before a sustainable upward move can be expected.
Key Takeaway: Tesla’s current technical setup does not signal a clear shift to the upside. If the price continues to fall, the 180/140 support zone could become a crucial turning point for a potential trend reversal. However, the overall trend remains weak, and recent upward swings have lacked the strength needed to confirm a shift. In the short term, more evidence is needed before calling for a sustained move higher.
Tesla Stock Drops 9%+ After Q1 Deliveries Drop to Three-Year LowTesla (Nasdaq: NASDAQ:TSLA ) is trading at $242.52 as of 1:04 PM EDT on April 4th, down 9.26%. The stock fell $24.76 after reporting weak Q1 2025 results. This came two days after Tesla closed its worst quarter since 2022, shedding 36% in market value. The company delivered 336,681 vehicles in Q1, missing analysts’ expectations of 360,000 to 377,590. This marked a 13% drop compared to Q1 2024, when it delivered 386,810 units. Production also fell to 362,615 vehicles from 433,371 in the prior year.
Tesla produced 345,454 units of its Model 3 and Model Y. Deliveries for those models stood at 323,800. Other models, including the Cybertruck, accounted for 12,881 deliveries. The quarter saw partial factory shutdowns to upgrade lines for a redesigned Model Y.
CEO Elon Musk said this model could again be the world’s best-selling car in 2025. But now the question is, will it?
Looking at it, Tesla faces several challenges, including increased EV competition and reputational damage tied to Musk’s political involvement. Of late, the CEO’s position in Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) has drawn backlash.
Protests, boycotts and vandalism against Tesla facilities and vehicles spread across the U.S and Europe. In Germany, Tesla’s EV market share dropped from 16% to 4%. Across 15 European countries, market share fell to 9.3% from 17.9%.
China also posed challenges. Tesla sold 78,828 EVs in March, an 11.5% year-on-year decline as domestic competitors like BYD increased their market presence. In Canada, Tesla claimed 8,653 EV sales during a January weekend to qualify for subsidies. The transportation ministry froze the payments and launched a probe into the claim.
Technical Analysis: Price Approaches Key Support Zone
Tesla’s price has declined sharply since hitting an all-time high of $488 in late December 2024. Since January, the stock has been in a downtrend, respecting a descending trendline. In early February, it broke a key support level at $290 and retested the level in late March before continuing downward.
Currently, the stock is approaching support at $190, a critical level for short-term price action. If it holds, the stock could attempt to break the descending trendline and move toward the $290 resistance.
If Tesla's bearish bias persists and breaks below $190, the next support sits at $140. This aligns with the head of a previously completed head-and-shoulder pattern. Breaking this level could trigger further losses.
The next few weeks will determine if it rebounds or slides deeper, with earnings report expected on Apr 22nd, 2025.
Honestly, I don't feel like explaining, the chart says it all !!Tesla's price can drop below $200 and then have a good increase.
Give me some energy !!
✨We spend hours finding potential opportunities and writing useful ideas, we would be happy if you support us.
Best regards CobraVanguard.💚
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✅Thank you, and for more ideas, hit ❤️Like❤️ and 🌟Follow🌟!
⚠️Things can change...
The markets are always changing and even with all these signals, the market changes tend to be strong and fast!!
TSLA Trade Thesis (Test)TSLA is holding strong at current demand. In order for price to rise, it will have to invalidate closest supply, if demand cannot hold, expecting price to sell off
:bulb: Trade Plan:
Entry Zone: $75.34
Stop Loss: $42.85
:dart: Targets:
Target 1: $139.27
Target 2: $217.02
Raise your stop-loss to entry price once we price reaches $98.95
:mag: Reasoning:
The double correction may be ending at that level for the stock market.
Tesla (TSLA) Long-Term Analysis: Retesting Key SupportHello traders! Let’s dive into a long-term analysis of Tesla (TSLA) on the monthly chart to understand where the stock might be headed next. I’ll walk you through my thought process, focusing on a comparison between the recent correction and a similar setup in 2020, while also analyzing the current correction’s alignment with the triangle formation from the 2021–2024 consolidation. My goal is to help you see the context of this setup and make an informed decision if you’re considering a trade.
Step 1: Understanding the Big Picture and Historical Context
Tesla has been in a strong uptrend since 2013, as evidenced by the ascending channel (highlighted in blue). This channel has guided the stock’s long-term trajectory, with the lower trendline providing support during pullbacks and the upper trendline acting as resistance during peaks. Within this uptrend, Tesla has experienced significant breakouts followed by corrections, and I’ve identified a compelling similarity between the current price action and a setup from 2020, alongside a key technical level from the recent consolidation.
Step 2: Comparing the Recent Correction to 2020
In 2020, Tesla consolidated in a range between $12 and $24 (labeled "Consolidation 1" on the chart). It then broke out, rallying to a high of $64.60—a gain of about 169% from the upper end of the consolidation range. Following this breakout, Tesla experienced a sharp pullback, dropping to $23.37, which represents a 63.8% correction from the $64.60 high. After finding support at this level, Tesla resumed its upward trajectory, soaring to $166.71—a 613% increase from the pullback low. Now, let’s look at the current situation: Tesla broke out of "Consolidation 2" (around 2021–2024), rallying from $212.11 to a high of $488.54—a 130% increase. It has since corrected by 51%, dropping to the current price of $239.43. This 51% pullback is slightly less severe than the 63.8% correction in 2020, but the structure is similar: both followed significant breakouts from consolidation zones.
Step 3: Current Price Action and the Triangle Retest
Tesla is currently trading at $239.43, down 55% from its recent high of $488.54. If the correction deepens to around 60%, it would bring the price to approximately $195.42 (calculated as $488.54 × (1 - 0.60) = $195.42), which aligns perfectly with the upper trendline of the triangle formation from "Consolidation 2" and the "Retest support?" zone around $170–$200. This confluence suggests that the current correction could be setting the stage for a significant bounce, just as the 2020 correction did. If this $170–$200 level fails to hold, I’m watching for a deeper pullback to the "Retest support" zone around $138–$150, which aligns with the lower trendline of the ascending channel and has acted as support during previous pullbacks (e.g., in 2023).
Step 4: My Prediction and Trade Idea
Here’s where I put myself in your shoes: if I were trading Tesla, I’d be watching for a retest of the $170–$200 support zone as a potential buying opportunity, drawing from both the 2020 playbook and the current technical setup. Why? In 2020, Tesla found support at $23.37 after a 63.8% correction, which set the stage for a 613% rally to $166.71. Similarly, a 60% correction now would bring Tesla to the upper trendline of the Consolidation 2 triangle at $170–$200, a level that could act as a springboard for the next leg up. If Tesla holds this support, I expect a move back toward the $300–$339 range, where it faced resistance before the recent drop. A break above $339 could signal a continuation toward $488.54, retesting the recent high.
Profit Targets and Stop Loss
Entry: Consider buying around $170–$200 if the price retests this support and shows signs of reversal (e.g., a bullish candlestick pattern or increased volume).
Profit Target 1: $300 (a conservative target based on recent resistance).
Profit Target 2: $339 (a more aggressive target at the prior resistance zone).
Stop Loss: Place a stop below $160 to protect against a breakdown of the $170–$200 support zone. This gives the trade a risk-reward ratio of up to 13:1 for the first target.
Risks to Consider
If Tesla fails to hold the $170–$200 support, we could see a deeper correction toward $138–$150, and potentially even $64–$90, another historical support level. Additionally, keep an eye on broader market conditions, as Tesla is sensitive to macroeconomic factors like interest rates and consumer sentiment in the EV sector. While the 2020 setup and the triangle retest provide a historical and technical parallel, the current 55% drop suggests heightened volatility, so be prepared for potential whipsaws around these key levels.
Conclusion
Tesla’s recent 55% correction from $488.54 to $239.43 echoes the 63.8% pullback in 2020 after the breakout from "Consolidation 1." If the correction deepens to 60%, it would retest the upper trendline of the Consolidation 2 triangle at $170–$200, suggesting a potential opportunity for a high-probability trade with clear profit targets and a defined stop loss. This setup could mirror the 2020 recovery, where Tesla rallied 613% after finding support. What do you think of this setup? Let me know in the comments—I’d love to hear your thoughts!