Tesla vs. BYD: The Market’s Greatest IllusionIntroduction: The Tale of Two Companies
You don’t need to be an economist to see it. Just compare Tesla and BYD.
BYD: Founded in 1995, Chinese, over $107 billion in revenue.
Tesla: Founded in 2003, American, with less revenue—but a market cap six times bigger.
The reason? Because one sells cars, and the other sells dreams. And Wall Street loves a good dream.
The Illusion Economy: When Hype Outweighs Reality
Tesla’s valuation isn’t tied to assets, production, or profits. It’s a ritual of collective belief—a performance act where branding replaces substance, and expectation outweighs reality.
It’s the same logic behind a $1,000 jacket that costs $100 to make. Put a fancy logo on it, and suddenly, it’s not overpriced—it’s "premium." You're not just buying a product; you're investing in a lifestyle. Sure. Keep telling yourself that.
Tesla is the $1,000 jacket. BYD is the actual tailor shop.
Tesla vs. BYD: The Numbers Tell the Story
Tesla’s market cap is over $1 trillion, while BYD’s is under $200 billion. Yet, BYD outsells Tesla globally, especially in China, where it dominates the EV market. Tesla’s valuation is built on brand perception, future promises, and speculative optimism, while BYD’s is grounded in actual production and revenue.
Financial Storytelling Over Business Reality
Tesla isn’t just a car company—it’s a financial illusion. Markets rise not on performance, but on promise. Stock prices reflect not what a company is, but what a hedge fund feels it might become. It’s not a business model—it’s mood swings with decimal points.
BYD’s Competitive Edge
Production Power: BYD manufactures more EVs than Tesla annually.
Battery Innovation: BYD’s Blade Battery is safer, lasts longer, and is cheaper than Tesla’s.
Affordability: BYD’s EVs are significantly cheaper, making them more accessible to global consumers.
Market Reach: BYD dominates China, the world’s largest EV market, while Tesla struggles with pricing and competition.
The Consequences of Buying the Dream
Tesla’s valuation isn’t creating better cars. It’s just creating dumber investors.
Investors who think they’re visionaries because they bought into the hype.
Consumers who think they’re elite because they bought the label.
Boards who think they’re gods because someone inflated their stock ticker.
But every illusion has an expiration date. Every bubble has its needle. And when dreams are sold on credit, reality always comes to collect.
Reality Always Comes to Collect
This isn’t growth. It’s speculative theater funded by your retirement account.
Real value doesn’t need hype. It appears in supply chains, production lines, tangible goods, and on profit sheets that make sense even without a TED Talk.
So next time you see Tesla’s trillion-dollar valuation, ask yourself: Are you investing in a business? Or are you just buying the dream—before it bursts?
TSLAC trade ideas
TSLATesla is in a correction phase, the price has a chance to test the support zone 246-218. If the price can stay above 218, it is expected that the price will have a chance to rebound. Consider buying the red zone.
🔥Trading futures, forex, CFDs and stocks carries a risk of loss.
Please consider carefully whether such trading is suitable for you.
>>GooD Luck 😊
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TSLA GEX Daily (Options Sentiment Outlook) June 2TSLA's GEX layout is looking real clean for directional play this week. We're hovering around 346.46, just below that major 355 HVL (High Volume Level) and 2nd CALL wall, which is where dealers are likely to defend or pin unless price makes a decisive move.
Here's the flow setup:
* 🟩 46.96% GEX and call wall cluster between 355–375, acting as short-term resistance unless we see a breakout.
* 🟥 Below sits strong put support near 320, and that's also near the bottom of the red zone (-36.74% GEX).
* ⚠️ IVR only at 24.8, so premiums are cheap — smart to consider directional plays before vol spikes.
🧠 Options Strategy Idea (Based on GEX):
* Bullish: Wait for clean break/close above 355, then go for Jul 19 370c or a debit spread like 355c/375c.
* Bearish Hedge: If TSLA fails 346 and drops under 335, consider Jul 19 330p/320p spread for risk-managed downside.
🎯 Call buyers should wait for confirmation over 355 — there's serious gamma resistance there.
Puts get spicy below 335 — dealers likely flip short and accelerate downside.
⏱️ TSLA 1H Chart (Swing & Intraday Action Plan)
Now zooming in to the 1-hour structure...
TSLA had a clean uptrend with some hesitation at 355, forming a local double top structure before Friday's selloff. We’ve bounced off 335 demand, and that’s shaping up as this week’s pivot zone.
Current structure notes:
* 📉 Strong rejection near 355.
* 📊 Price is consolidating under that level — likely gearing up for either a breakout or a deeper pullback.
* 🔄 EMA looks flat, volume tapering → signaling indecision.
📈 Swing Setup:
* Bullish: Long on reclaim + retest of 355, targeting 370–375. Stop below 348.
* Bearish: Short setup under 335 breakdown → target 320 zone. Stop above 340.
📉 Intraday Plan:
* Range: 335–355 is your battlefield.
* Play the edges:
* Short near 355 rejection → target 346 or 338.
* Long off 335 bounce → scalp back to 346–350.
💬 This zone is all about patience — don’t chase inside the chop. Let price either reclaim 355 or flush below 335 before going heavy.
🧠 Final Thoughts
TSLA’s setup is one of the more binary ones this week — it’s coiled under gamma resistance but holding key demand. GEX is telling us this: break 355 and the path is open to 370–400; lose 335 and things can slide to 320 fast.
Cheap IV? Great for debit spreads or directional plays. But stay reactive — TSLA rarely stays quiet for long.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Always manage risk and do your own research before trading.
TSLA Rebounds from $290 | Buy the Dip or Political Trap?⚠️Just when it looked like Tesla was heading for a breakdown, we got a sharp bounce off the $290 level — and traders are watching closely. But here’s the twist: the move came after a headline-heavy week featuring none other than Trump vs. Elon.
🗞️ According to Politico, tensions flared after Trump made comments suggesting EVs were "doomed without government subsidies." Elon clapped back, defending Tesla’s profitability and independence. This added pressure on TSLA... and then came the bounce. Coincidence? Or whales buying fear?
📥 Entry Zones
• $290 – Strong demand zone, tested and respected
• $275 – Deeper retest if market pulls back
• $240 – Extreme fear level, unlikely unless macro worsens
🎯 Profit Targets
• $305 – Gap-fill magnet
• $320 – Resistance test
• $355+ – If Robotaxi or AI hype returns in force
Stock Of The Day / 06.06.25 / TSLA06.06.2025 / NASDAQ:TSLA
Fundamentals. Negative background due to the conflict between Musk and Trump.
Technical analysis.
Daily chart: Pullback on an uptrend
Premarket: Gap Down on increased volume.
Trading session: The primary impulse from the opening of the session was stopped at 312.70, after which a smooth, long pullback followed. At 12:00 p.m., volumes appeared and the price sharply returned and tested the level of 312.70, and the next pullback was significantly smaller than the previous one. We are considering a short trade to continue the downward movement in case of breakdown and holding the price below the level.
Trading scenario: #breakdown with retest of level 312.70
Entry: 310.94 after the breakout, retest and holding below the level.
Stop: 313.06 we hide it above the tail of the retest.
Exit: Cover the position at 279.47 when the structure of the downward trend is broken amid price acceleration and volume growth.
Risk Rewards: 1/14
P.S. In order to understand the idea of the Stock Of The Day analysis, please read the following information .
Safe Entry ZoneCurrent Movement is Down.
The Green 4h Zone @ 277-271 price level is strongest support level price targeting.
Note: 1- Potentional of Strong Buying Zone:
We have two scenarios must happen at The Mentioned Zone:
Scenarios One: strong buying volume with reversal Candle.
Scenarios Two: Fake Break-Out of The Buying Zone.
Both indicate buyers stepping in strongly. NEVER Join in unless one showed up.
2- How to Buy Stock:
On 15M TF when Marubozu Candle show up which indicate strong buyers stepping-in.
Buy on 0.5 Fibo Level of the Marubozu Candle, because price will always and always re-test the imbalance.
$TSLA - Time to BUY (F to sellers)When weak hands sell in fear, we proudly buy.
Tesla is at the perfect spot for buying right now, both from fundamental and technical sides. The recent fight between Elon & Trump granted so much needed correction to the chart. The price is resting on the $260 - $280 support now - ideal spot for buying before the massive blast off will happen.
A few technical factors: there is a HUGE ascending triangle with horizontal resistance ($415), the 3rd approach of this resistance should be final before the breakout happens! Moreover, the price is steadily forming a bullish pennant that will help in breaking the resistance up.
The overall trend is strictly bullish according to Fibo. The target of this upward movement is located in the $900 - $1000 zone which is x4 from current points. Not very often in our century you get such an opportunity.
You may have different opinions about Elon Musk, but you can't deny the fact he is brilliant businessman and entrepreneur. You can already see that "Tesla owners are scrambling to remove their anti Elon stickers from their car now that he is feuding with Trump" . Elon is a good-guy for liberals again, while republicans didn't change their positive attire regarding his company as well.
I tend to believe that all those news we witnessed yesterday (mean Elon&Trump fight) was just a part of a bigger plan , the outcome of which we will see later this year or even next year.
TESLA Massive Short! SELL!
My dear friends,
Please, find my technical outlook for TESLA below:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 345.78
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bearish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 308.21
Recommended Stop Loss - 364.73
About Used Indicators:
Super-trend indicator is more useful in trending markets where there are clear uptrends and downtrends in price.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
TSLA – Something Big Is Brewing🚀Tesla just keeps pushing. Now trading around $346, it's not just riding market momentum — it's building it. And with the robotaxi launch in Austin coming June 12, the narrative might be shifting from “just EVs” to mobility revolution.📍 Levels I’m Watching
Possible entries:
• $335–$325 – Looks like it’s consolidating here
• $315–$290 – Clean retest zone if we dip
• $265 – Would love a deeper pullback but not counting on it
Targets?
• $370 – Short-term test
• $395 – Momentum breakout zone
• $420+ – If the hype around robotaxis takes hold
⚠️ Disclaimer: This isn’t financial advice. Just sharing how I see things. Do your own research and trade safe.
💬 If this helped, drop a like and follow. I post trades that actually make sense not just moonshots.
Let’s grow smart. 📈🧠
6/4/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: $TSLA6/4/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:TSLA
Legging in slowly... again
- valuation is not for this post, i've put it out there last time
- after riding in many teslas in LVN (obviously not my first time) i was AMAZED at how many ubers were using FSD at my request and talking about how it's improved light years since the few versions ahead
- this is now a humanoid-focused company, i'm entirely convinced it will happen and of the three companies out there, only one is public
- and they're coming. given progress in AI (I'm so close to this)... we'll probably see them commercially in kitchens, old ppl homes etc. in a matter of years, at most. I'd guess we see a few out in the wild in two years...
- so while it's hard to wrap my head around the "valuation" in a car context... a trillion bucks for a company in the process of disrupting the entire global services industry, is too cheap.
- send it lower.
- i'm starting my LT position here and want it it lower.
V
Tesla Recovers After Announcement of Trump–Musk DialogueBy Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades
After a session marked by a sharp decline, Tesla shares rebounded strongly in after-hours trading. The catalyst: a *Politico* report revealing that President Donald Trump’s advisors have scheduled a phone call with Elon Musk for today, Friday, in an effort to ease tensions following a public dispute between the two figures. On Thursday, Tesla suffered one of its worst declines of the year, plunging 14.26% and wiping out more than \$150 billion in market value within hours. This brings the quarterly loss to 25.70%. However, news of a potential reconciliation pushed the stock back into positive territory, closing at \$288.35 with a 2.31% recovery, sparking speculative after-hours trading that could extend into the week’s final session.
The clash erupted after Musk criticized a new tax cut bill championed by the White House. Trump promptly responded by threatening to reassess federal contracts awarded to Musk's companies, such as SpaceX. Tensions escalated further when Musk, via social media, hinted at alleged ties between Trump and the late financier Jeffrey Epstein.
According to *Politico*, although Trump has publicly projected an air of indifference, his advisors have been working behind the scenes to de-escalate the feud and avoid broader political and economic fallout. The scheduled call on Friday may mark the beginning of a truce.
It’s worth recalling that during his tenure at the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) under Trump’s administration, Elon Musk faced accusations of conflicts of interest, particularly for pushing deregulatory policies that directly benefited Tesla and SpaceX. These actions triggered public protests, the "Tesla Takedown" boycott movement, and investor concerns over Musk's divided attention—ultimately harming Tesla’s reputation and market valuation.
Tesla Under the Microscope: Between Market Rebound and Financial Pressure
The technical rebound has offered investors some relief, but Tesla’s challenges extend beyond the political arena. As of 2025, the stock is down nearly 25% amid shrinking global EV demand, intensified competition, and margin pressure. In its Q1 2025 earnings report, Tesla posted \$21.3 billion in revenue, down 5% year-on-year. Net income also fell to \$1.04 billion, dragged by an aggressive discount strategy and rising operational costs. Gross margin declined to 17.2%, while free cash flow stood at \$620 million. Despite these headwinds, the company maintains a strong financial position, with \$22 billion in cash and \$7.8 billion in total debt. Tesla currently trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 56, well above the industry average, reflecting high—though increasingly questioned—growth expectations.
Technical Outlook: Key Support Level in Sight
From a technical perspective, Tesla has found crucial support around the \$271.22 level. This bounce aligns with the beginning of a bearish consolidation cross seen on Wednesday. If the 200-day moving average remains below the 100-day and the 50-day adjusts downward, further bearish momentum could ensue. A break below this level may lead to a decline toward \$250. Conversely, a sustained recovery could push the stock toward the previous control point at \$361.93, though not before consolidating around the \$320 resistance zone. The RSI shows clear signs of extreme overselling at 19%, potentially signaling the door to an upward move.
In the short term, everything hinges on the outcome of today’s Trump–Musk conversation, which markets will be watching very closely.
Conclusion
The clash between Musk and Trump has left visible scars on the market. While a possible rapprochement may open a window for stabilization, Tesla’s financial and technical fundamentals reveal ongoing challenges. Any recovery could prove as volatile as the leadership surrounding it.
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All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk.
Tesla's Perfect Storm: A $152 Billion MeltdownTesla's Perfect Storm: A $152 Billion Meltdown, Chinese Rivals on the Attack, and a Faltering Shanghai Fortress
A tempest has engulfed Tesla, the electric vehicle behemoth, wiping a staggering $152 billion from its market capitalization in a single day. This monumental loss, the largest in the company's history, was triggered by a dramatic and public feud between CEO Elon Musk and former U.S. President Donald Trump. The confrontation, however, is but the most visible squall in a much larger storm. Lurking just beneath the surface are the relentless waves of competition from Chinese automakers, who are rapidly eroding Tesla's dominance, and the ominous sign of eight consecutive months of declining shipments from its once-impenetrable Shanghai Gigafactory.
The confluence of these events has plunged Tesla into a precarious position, raising fundamental questions about its future trajectory and its ability to navigate the turbulent waters of a rapidly evolving automotive landscape. The narrative of Tesla as an unstoppable force is being rewritten in real-time, replaced by a more complex and challenging reality.
The Trump-Musk Spat: A Bromance Turned Billion-Dollar Blow-Up
The relationship between Elon Musk and Donald Trump, once a seemingly symbiotic alliance of power and influence, has spectacularly imploded, leaving a trail of financial and political wreckage in its wake. The public falling out, which played out in a series of scathing social media posts and public statements, sent shockwaves through Wall Street and Washington, culminating in a historic sell-off of Tesla stock.
The genesis of the feud lies in Musk's vocal criticism of a sweeping tax and spending bill, a cornerstone of the Trump administration's second-term agenda. Musk, who had previously been a vocal supporter and even an advisor to the President, lambasted the legislation as a "disgusting abomination" filled with "pork." This public rebuke from a figure of Musk's stature was a direct challenge to Trump's authority and legislative priorities.
The President's response was swift and sharp. In an Oval Office meeting, Trump expressed his "disappointment" in Musk, questioning the future of their "great relationship." The war of words then escalated dramatically on their respective social media platforms. Trump, on his social media platform, threatened to terminate Tesla's lucrative government subsidies and contracts, a move that would have significant financial implications for Musk's business empire. He also claimed to have asked Musk to leave his advisory role, a statement Musk labeled as an "obvious lie."
Musk, in turn, did not hold back. On X (formerly Twitter), he claimed that without his substantial financial support in the 2024 election, Trump would have lost the presidency. This assertion of his political influence was a direct jab at the President's ego and a stark reminder of the financial power Musk wields. The spat took an even more personal and inflammatory turn when Musk alluded to Trump's name appearing in the unreleased records of the Jeffrey Epstein investigation.
The market's reaction to this public spectacle was brutal. Tesla's stock plummeted by over 14% in a single day, erasing more than $152 billion in market capitalization and pushing the company's valuation below the coveted $1 trillion mark. The sell-off was a clear indication of investor anxiety over the political instability and the potential for tangible financial repercussions from the feud. The incident underscored how intertwined Musk's personal and political activities have become with Tesla's financial performance, a vulnerability that has been a recurring theme for the company.
The Chinese Dragon Breathes Fire: Tesla's EV Dominance Under Siege
While the political drama in Washington captured headlines, a more fundamental and perhaps more enduring threat to Tesla's long-term prosperity is brewing in the East. The Chinese electric vehicle market, once a key engine of Tesla's growth, has become a fiercely competitive battleground where a host of domestic rivals are not just challenging Tesla, but in some aspects, surpassing it.
Companies like BYD, Nio, XPeng, and now even the tech giant Xiaomi, are relentlessly innovating and offering a diverse range of electric vehicles that are often more affordable and technologically advanced than Tesla's offerings. This intense competition has led to a significant erosion of Tesla's market share in China. From a dominant position just a few years ago, Tesla's share of the battery electric vehicle market has fallen significantly.
One of the key advantages for Chinese automakers is their control over the entire EV supply chain, particularly in battery production. This allows them to produce vehicles at a lower cost, a crucial factor in a price-sensitive market. The result is a growing disparity in pricing, with many Chinese EVs offering comparable or even superior features at a fraction of the cost of a Tesla.
Furthermore, Chinese consumers are increasingly viewing electric vehicles as "rolling smartphones," prioritizing advanced digital features, connectivity, and a sophisticated user experience. In this regard, many domestic brands are seen as more innovative and in tune with local preferences than Tesla. This shift in consumer sentiment has been a significant factor in the declining interest in the Tesla brand in China.
The numbers paint a stark picture of Tesla's predicament. While the overall new-energy vehicle market in China continues to grow at a remarkable pace, Tesla's sales have been on a downward trend. This is a worrying sign for a company that has invested heavily in its Chinese operations and has historically relied on the country for a substantial portion of its global sales.
The pressure on Tesla's sales in China is so intense that its sales staff are working grueling 13-hour shifts, seven days a week, in a desperate attempt to meet demanding sales targets. The high-pressure environment has reportedly led to high turnover rates among sales staff, a clear indication of the immense strain the company is under in this critical market.
The Shanghai Gigafactory: A Fortress with a Faltering Gate
The struggles in the Chinese market are reflected in the declining output from Tesla's Shanghai Gigafactory. For eight consecutive months, shipments from the factory, which serves both the domestic Chinese market and is a key export hub, have seen a year-on-year decline. In May 2025, the factory delivered 61,662 vehicles, a 15% drop compared to the same period the previous year.
This sustained decline in shipments is a significant red flag for several reasons. Firstly, the Shanghai factory is Tesla's largest and most efficient production facility, accounting for a substantial portion of its global output. A slowdown in production at this key facility has a direct impact on the company's overall delivery numbers and financial performance.
Secondly, the declining shipments are a direct consequence of the weakening demand for Tesla's vehicles in China. Despite being a production powerhouse, the factory's output is ultimately dictated by the number of cars it can sell. The falling shipment numbers are a clear indication that the company is struggling to maintain its sales momentum in the face of fierce competition.
The situation in China is a microcosm of the broader challenges facing Tesla. The company's product lineup, which has not seen a major new addition in the affordable segment for some time, is starting to look dated compared to the rapid product cycles of its Chinese competitors. The refreshed Model 3 and Model Y, while still popular, are no longer the novelties they once were, and are facing a growing number of compelling alternatives.
A Confluence of Crises: What Lies Ahead for Tesla?
The convergence of a high-profile political feud, intensifying competition, and production headwinds has created a perfect storm for Tesla. The company that once seemed invincible is now facing a multi-front battle for its future.
The spat with Trump, while seemingly a short-term crisis, has exposed the risks associated with a CEO whose public persona is so closely tied to the company's brand. The incident has also highlighted the potential for political winds to shift, and for government policies that have benefited Tesla in the past to be reversed.
The challenge from Chinese automakers is a more fundamental and long-term threat. The rise of these nimble and innovative competitors is not a fleeting trend, but a structural shift in the global automotive industry. Tesla can no longer rely on its brand cachet and technological lead to maintain its dominance. It must now compete on price, features, and innovation in a market that is becoming increasingly crowded and sophisticated.
The declining shipments from the Shanghai factory are a tangible manifestation of these challenges. The factory, once a symbol of Tesla's global manufacturing prowess, is now a barometer of its struggles in its most important market.
To navigate this storm, Tesla will need to demonstrate a level of agility and adaptability that it has not been required to show in the past. This will likely involve a renewed focus on product development, particularly in the affordable EV segment, to better compete with the value propositions offered by its Chinese rivals. It will also require a more nuanced and strategic approach to the Chinese market, one that acknowledges the unique preferences and demands of Chinese consumers.
The coming months will be a critical test for Tesla and its leadership. The company's ability to weather this storm and emerge stronger will depend on its capacity to innovate, to compete, and to navigate the complex and often unpredictable currents of the global automotive market. The era of unchallenged dominance is over. The battle for the future of electric mobility has truly begun.
TSLA New ATH incoming? Overview of primary catalysts.After trading between $346 and $365 intraday on May 27, Tesla shares closed at $362.89—up modestly despite broader market headwinds and lingering investor skepticism.
Here’s a detailed breakdown of the primary catalysts shaping Tesla’s stock price (ranked 0–10):
1. Electric Vehicle Demand Growth
Strength: 9/10
Global EV adoption remains the single largest driver of Tesla’s top line. Despite slowing sales in Europe and China, overall EV penetration continues to surge as consumers shift away from internal-combustion engines.
2. Launch of Affordable Model (Entry-Level EV)
Strength: 8.5/10
Elon Musk has reiterated plans to unveil a sub-$25,000 EV in early 2025, targeting the mass market. Investors cheered a recent reaffirmation of focus on core products over peripheral projects.
3. Battery Cost Reductions & Margin Expansion
Strength: 8/10
Tesla’s relentless drive to lower battery pack costs underpins both profitability and price competitiveness. Q4 cost of goods sold dipped below $35,000 per vehicle, even as margins softened amid mixed volumes.
4. Autonomy & Robotaxi Progress
Strength: 7.5/10
Commercial robotaxi trials are slated to begin in Austin in June 2025, with a dedicated Cybercab in development. While regulatory and safety hurdles loom, the promise of recurring software subscription revenue could be transformative.
5. Competition from Other EV Manufacturers
Strength: 7/10
Legacy automakers and startups alike are ramping up EV offerings. Tesla’s U.S. market share has declined in recent years, highlighting intensifying pressure in key regions.
6. U.S.–China Trade Policies & Tariffs
Strength: 6.5/10
Fluctuating tariffs on Chinese EV imports have led to order suspensions and forecasting challenges. Trade-policy uncertainty remains a wild card given Tesla’s global supply chain.
7. Regulatory Incentives & Subsidies
Strength: 6/10
U.S. federal tax credits under the Inflation Reduction Act and similar programs in Europe and China support EV demand—and Tesla’s eligibility criteria will influence its market growth.
8. Commodity Price Volatility (Lithium, Nickel, Cobalt)
Strength: 5.5/10
Raw material cost swings can erode margins. While long-term supply agreements help, spot shortages or price spikes remain risks.
9. Fed “Higher for Longer” Interest Rate Environment
Strength: 5/10
Elevated real yields reduce the appeal of high-growth names like Tesla. A sustained hawkish stance from the Fed could continue to cap valuations, similar to how it weighs on non-yielding assets.
10. Corporate Governance & Elon Musk’s Public Profile
Strength: 4/10
Musk’s high-profile engagements and occasional controversies can politicize the brand, prompting sentiment-driven stock swings.
Catalyst Strength Rankings (May 2025)
🔸 EV demand growth: 9
🔸 Affordable Model launch: 8.5
🔸 Battery cost & margins: 8
🔸 Autonomy/robotaxi progress: 7.5
🔸 Competition: 7
🔸 Trade & tariffs: 6.5
🔸 Regulatory incentives: 6
🔸 Commodity costs: 5.5
🔸 Fed rates: 5
🔸 Musk profile: 4
Analyst Forecasts for 2025
| Analyst / Consensus | 12-Month Price Target | Rating |
| --------------------------- | --------------------- | ------------ |
| High | \$470.00 | – |
| Median | \$306.00 | Hold/Neutral |
| Low | \$115.00 | – |
| Average (Consensus) | \$306.29 | Hold |
| Dan Ives (Wedbush) | \$315 | Outperform |
| Adam Jonas (Morgan Stanley) | \$430 | Overweight |
* Consensus sees a range of \$115–\$470 with an average near \$306.
* Dan Ives trimmed his target from \$550 to \$315, citing tariff risks and political headwinds.
* Adam Jonas remains bullish with a \$430 target, viewing Tesla as an “embodied AI compounder” despite near-term brand challenges.
Where to Next for Tesla?
* Current price: \~\$362.89
* Key support levels: \$350 and \$340
* Next technical floor: \$330
* Upside triggers: Stronger-than-expected delivery volumes, breakthrough in full-self-driving (FSD) reliability, or renewed cost cuts.
Tesla’s stock remains a balance between long-term disruptive potential and short-term execution risks. While EV adoption and autonomous ambitions underpin a compelling growth narrative, margin compression, competitive pressures, and macro uncertainties will dictate volatility in the months ahead.
TSLA looking for a rally setupPrediction:
TSLA will likely pull back to the green range (328–342), and in extreme cases, it may dip to the 318–320 area before starting a rally toward ~380 in June or July.
Eventually, it may aim for the ~420 range as the full target, though I’m not very confident about that at this point.
On the daily chart, the overall setup is forming a bull flag pattern, with the MACD showing a potential pullback reversal in the high-range.
The gap between 307 and 311 likely won’t be filled in the near future.
Action:
I plan to accumulate long positions around ~335 and will add more if it drops to 320, or if it breaks above the 10 SMA after breaking below the 20 MA without hitting 320.
Stop loss will be at filling the gap or breaking down 60 SMA.
Potential-loss ratio is 2:1 to 3:1, which is not ideal for TSLA or TSLL. So I will be looking for calls or BCS.
TSLA: Continues to form a Cup and Handle reversal patternHey folks,
Just a quick analysis of NASDAQ:TSLA on the daily chart. Compared to my last analysis, price has fallen a bit since, as a new flag (handle) continues to form following a cup pattern.
- Cup and Handle pattern forming. The handle would also count as a bull flag. This is known as
a cup and handle reversal pattern, after a downtrend. So yes, it is possible for a stock to
reverse its trend through the formation of a cup and handle reversal pattern (as you can see
in the chart).
- Major resistance at $366 which marks the peak of the flag (handle) pattern. This would have
to be broken in order for the cup and handle to be valid.
- Volume has also been decreasing during the formation of this pattern: this is typical amongst
Cup and Handle patterns, and generally a positive sign.
Note: Not financial advice.
TSLA | Long Bias | Double VWAP + ABC Setup | (June 5, 2025)TSLA | Long Bias | Double VWAP + ABC Setup | (June 5, 2025)
1️⃣ Insight Summary:
Tesla is pulling back just as we anticipated, but strong technical support from a double VWAP level and a developing ABC correction is hinting at a potential bullish reversal. Momentum could build soon — this is a key area to watch!
2️⃣ Trade Parameters:
Bias: Long
Entry Zone: Current VWAP support near $230 (adjust per actual chart level)
Stop Loss: Below VWAP + liquidity zone (~$225 suggested)
TP1: $363
TP2: $395
Partial Exits: Consider profit-taking along the way; over 50% of the position to be closed around the $363–$395 range.
3️⃣ Key Notes:
✅ Support Factors: We're holding the double VWAP level and near the left-side value area high (around $294), with ABC corrective structure playing out.
✅ Money Flow: On the 4H chart, money is flowing out, but on the 30min it's stabilizing near 0 — watch for a potential turn.
❌ Risk Zone: We might see a short liquidity grab under the VWAP before the real move starts. Be patient with entries.
📰 Sentiment & Fundamentals: Tesla dropped due to new tariffs, but the news around Robotaxi services could spark a sharp rebound. Wall Street is watching closely as EPS continues to underperform forecasts.
⚠️ Valuation Caution: Despite a sky-high P/E ratio (189), Tesla remains outside normal valuation rules, like Nvidia. Keep that in mind when thinking long-term.
4️⃣ Follow-Up:
I’ll be monitoring this setup closely — especially how price reacts around VWAP and whether money flow turns green. Updates to come if conditions change!
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TSLA Backtest: A robo-taxi launchpad? TBD ... 𝗧𝗲𝘀𝗹𝗮 𝗕𝗮𝗰𝗸𝘁𝗲𝘀𝘁: A robo-taxi launchpad? 🤖🚗
After a 20%+ breakout, NASDAQ:TSLA is retesting its 200dma with $295–300 now key support. Hold that — and bulls have room to run to $400+.
𝘉𝘶𝘭𝘭𝘪𝘴𝘩 𝘴𝘦𝘵𝘶𝘱 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩 𝘢 𝘥𝘢𝘵𝘦: June 12 robo-taxi reveal in Austin could mark Tesla’s first real step toward autonomous ride-hailing at scale.
𝘏𝘪𝘨𝘩 𝘱𝘳𝘪𝘤𝘦, 𝘩𝘪𝘨𝘩 𝘩𝘰𝘱𝘦𝘴: Tesla's valuation has always priced in the future. This time, the future might show up in a self-driving Model Y.
$NQ_F NASDAQ:NDX NASDAQ:QQQ NASDAQ:NVDA NASDAQ:AAPL AMEX:SPY NASDAQ:SOX CBOE:ARKK #Tesla #Robotaxi #FSD #ElonMusk #Stocks
Tesla (TSLA) Share AnalysisHello, Tesla investors!
Tesla stock has gained good momentum recently, breaking the downtrend and rising to $362. This rise has been fueled by investor interest in Elon Musk's full-time return to the company's helm and the upcoming Robotaxi launch.
Technically speaking , the stock has formed a "double bottom" (W) pattern, and its target, $362, has been reached. However, we are now facing strong resistance at this level. If this resistance level is not surpassed with sufficient trading volume, we may see a short-term pullback.
The possibility of a short-term correction increases, especially with the RSI indicator approaching the overbought zone.
The $335 and $290 regions stand out as support levels. These levels are important to watch for possible pullbacks.
In summary , Tesla stock is in an important resistance zone. Breaking through this level with high volume could signal the start of a new uptrend. Otherwise, we may face a short-term correction. Consider these levels and technical indicators when making investment decisions.
Will Tesla keep dropping?Tesla's stock experienced a significant decline of 14% yesterday, primarily due to a public feud between CEO Elon Musk and President Donald Trump. This dispute has raised concerns about potential government actions that could adversely affect Tesla's operations.
The conflict began when Musk criticized a proposed tax and spending bill, labeling it a "disgusting abomination." In response, President Trump threatened to terminate federal contracts with Musk's companies, including Tesla and SpaceX. This escalation led to a sharp drop in Tesla's stock price, erasing over $150 billion in market value and removing the company from the $1 trillion market capitalization club.
Technical analysis indicates that Tesla's stock broke below key support levels, including its 50- and 200-day moving averages, suggesting a potential continuation of the downtrend. Analysts have identified support levels at $265, $215, and $170, with resistance around $365.
Despite the recent turmoil, some analysts remain optimistic about Tesla's long-term prospects. Dan Ives of Wedbush Securities maintains a bullish outlook, citing upcoming innovations like Tesla's robotaxi service as potential growth drivers.
However, challenges persist. Tesla faces declining sales in Europe, increased competition from companies like BYD, and potential regulatory hurdles stemming from Musk's political engagements.
-Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any securities. Stock prices, valuations, and performance metrics are subject to change and may be outdated. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. The information presented may contain inaccuracies and should not be solely relied upon for financial decisions. I am not personally liable for your own losses, this is not financial advise.
Tesla Wave Analysis – 5 June 2025
- Tesla broke the support zone
- Likely to fall to support level 260.00
Tesla recently broke the support zone located between the support level 294.00 (former resistance from April and March) and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from April.
The breakout of this support zone accelerated the active minor ABC correction 2 from the end of May.
Tesla can be expected to fall to the next support level 260.00, which is the former resistance from the start of April.