TSLA Recovery PossibilityFollowing a rough start to 2025- here's a potential playout for a Tesla recovery. Recent news has overshadowed the potential in Tesla's future and robo-taxi initiative.
TSLAD trade ideas
TSLA Breakdown Looks Weak! Bearish Momentum Builds Under Key ZonTSLA just broke down from a key structure with rejection under $243 and failed to reclaim it. Price is now stuck in a bearish SMC range and sitting inside a demand zone that’s showing signs of weakening. Here’s how it’s setting up:
📉 Market Structure & SMC
Price is clearly trending inside a downward channel with consecutive break-of-structure (BOS) moves. The most recent bearish BOS confirms continuation, and there has been no clean change-of-character (CHoCH) to suggest bulls are regaining control. Supply remains untouched above $243, while price has now tested the $214–$221 zone multiple times.
📊 Indicators – MACD & Stoch RSI
MACD histogram is fading and showing no momentum crossover. Stochastic RSI is deeply oversold but not turning up yet — this could signal either a pause or a weak bounce before continuation down.
📉 TrendInfo Summary (1H)
The TrendInfo panel is heavily tilted bearish:
Momentum (MACD, RSI, DMI) is all red
Volume remains average but favoring red candles
Fear & Greed sentiment reads at Fear (-14.42)
Final recommendation: Sell (90%)
This confluence supports the bearish thesis unless bulls step in aggressively at $214.
🧠 Options GEX Insight
On the options side, we’re seeing a major wall of negative gamma around the $215–$220 zone — and the highest negative NETGEX / put support sits at $214.25, right where price is hovering.
If this level breaks, gamma flows could accelerate downside volatility toward $200–$210, with no real put wall protection below until $190.
On the flip side, the upside is heavily capped at $237.5 with HVL at that level. The nearest significant resistance lies at $260–$262, aligning with major call walls and the 62% GEX call resistance zone.
IVR is extremely elevated at 137.8, with IVx at 140.2, showing strong option demand and volatility pricing. However, most of the flow is put-heavy (1.6%), suggesting institutions are not betting on a recovery just yet.
🎯 Trade Thoughts & Scenarios
If price bounces here, we may see a short-term move to $230–$237.5 (gap fill or HVL reversion). However, unless TSLA reclaims $243, the broader structure remains bearish and rallies are likely to be sold.
If $214 breaks, that opens downside to $210 and even $200 fast — especially with this kind of GEX structure.
Swing traders can consider shorting failed bounces with tight risk above $230. Intraday scalpers can hunt rejections at $225–$230 zone.
Final Thoughts:
TrendInfo, order flow, and SMC structure are all leaning bearish. TSLA needs a strong shift in sentiment or macro support (like QQQ/SPY bottoming) to reverse this trend. Until then, bears are in control.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and trade responsibly.
[TSLA] Bear Market to $15: Musk’s Empire at Risk?Tesla’s market cap now surpasses the combined market cap of all major automobile producers. Elon Musk is undeniably a genius, yet this staggering valuation owes much to a robust bull market and post-COVID hype. If Tesla were valued using the same earnings and revenue multiples as the average automaker, its stock price would hover between $15 and $20 per share.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Tesla’s chart is one of the most striking I’ve ever seen. It reflects a powerful bull market that has completed an Elliott Wave five-wave structure, signaling that a bear market is likely next.
Wave 4 formed a running triangle—a pattern typical in strong trends—and was followed by a short Wave 5, exactly as expected. Running triangles paired with a brief Wave 5 often indicate distribution. Indeed, Tesla’s chart reveals a beautiful four-year distribution phase (2021–2025). During this period, the stock struggled to climb higher due to persistent selling pressure. Strong hands have now offloaded their shares to weaker hands, setting the stage for a bear market.
A triple divergence on the monthly RSI further confirms extreme overbought conditions and reinforces the case for selling. There’s no significant support until the $15–$20 range.
If my prediction of a 2008-style crash in the S&P 500 (see related ideas) holds true, Tesla could bottom out around $15—a level that, intriguingly, aligns with its COVID-era low.
"Bull market geniuses turn into bear market fools."
Elon Musk net worth derives value mostly from Tesla and SpaceX as other companies are illiquid and very speculative.
Current Musk's Tesla stake is worth around $100 billion if the price falls down to $15 it would be worth $6 billion, all other things being equal that alone would put a significant dent in his net worth.
Musk is widely recognized as someone who leverages his Tesla shares and SpaceX to fund other ventures and lifestyle.
It is not clear at what price level his margin calls are and what arrangements he has with banks but if crash of this magnitude happens all his Tesla shares could be wiped out with possible full blown bankruptcy.
I wish him well and hope he does well, but this scenario is not unlikely and interesting to ponder.
TSLA Needs More Clear Signs for a Trend Shift
Tesla's price action in 2024 has shown signs of weakness, casting doubt on the strength of its long-term upward trend. After a sharp decline from its peak, the stock is now at a critical juncture where key levels and momentum are in play. Here’s an in-depth look:
Potential Bounce at Key Support: Tesla is currently heading toward the 180/140 support zone, which could act as a pivotal point for a potential rebound. If the stock manages to hold above these levels, it could set the stage for a recovery move toward the 300 resistance zone. The importance of this support level cannot be overstated, as a failure to hold could lead to further downside.
Weak Momentum: Despite attempts at upward movement, Tesla's long-term bullish trend has significantly weakened due to a lack of momentum in 2024. The stock is struggling to build on past gains, and this lack of follow-through is a warning sign for those expecting continued growth. Momentum is a critical factor in maintaining an uptrend, and without it, the path of least resistance may be down.
Breaking Below Key Levels: A significant development is the breakdown below the 300 level, a key psychological and technical level for Tesla. This breach signals a shift in market sentiment, and until the price can reclaim this level, the bearish pressure is likely to persist. Reversals from such levels often require strong confirmation, which has not yet materialized for Tesla.
Trading Below Moving Averages: Tesla is now trading below both its 200-day and 20-day moving averages, further confirming the weakness in the trend. These moving averages act as important indicators of market sentiment and trend direction. Being below these averages suggests that momentum is against the stock, and the risk of further declines remains high unless a significant reversal occurs.
50% Decline from Peak: Since reaching its peak at 488.54, Tesla has seen a 50% decline, and there are no clear signs of a reversal in the short term. This prolonged decline suggests that the bearish trend is still in control, and the stock must show stronger signs of recovery before a sustainable upward move can be expected.
Key Takeaway: Tesla’s current technical setup does not signal a clear shift to the upside. If the price continues to fall, the 180/140 support zone could become a crucial turning point for a potential trend reversal. However, the overall trend remains weak, and recent upward swings have lacked the strength needed to confirm a shift. In the short term, more evidence is needed before calling for a sustained move higher.
TSLA 4/8/2025Per my mentor (He would kill me for calling him that lol)
TSLA Is currently in the middle of a 5 year range...
Meaning Bargain no question.
I like a buy right now.
Personally believe they will still lead EV sector by substantial #s a decade from now
Long term vision beats short term gain
More bad days for TESLATesla is about to meet its temporary trandline and probably will continue to close the gap.
TSLA short swing ideaI like the RR in this trade, that's why I am choosing TSLA over others. As we are bearish on current order flow, the price prints are showing bearish movement in the coming days. One possibility is that it might take out buystops before trending lower and I think today's day will give more information on that. However, the technicals are there that favors the trade. Weekly Sibi, Daily SIBI, and H1 breaker + FVG.
TSLA SHORTTSLA Short. Trendline break to the downside. Looks like we may have some more downside movement on TSLA before earnings come out. Nice R/R. Tight stop
TSLA bear (few months)TSLA is expected to drop below $225 based on both technical indicators and negative market sentiment. Just my Idea.
Tesla: bounce expected at $200 Support?NASDAQ:TSLA is currently approaching an important support zone, an area where the price has previously shown bullish reactions. This level aligns closely with the psychological $200 mark, which tends to carry added weight in the market .
The recent momentum suggests that buyers could step in and drive the price higher. A bullish confirmation, such as a strong rejection pattern, bullish engulfing candles, or long lower wicks, would increase the probability of a bounce from this level. If I'm right and buyers regain control, the price could move toward the 260.00 level.
However, a breakout below this support would invalidate the bullish outlook, potentially leading to more downside.
This is not financial advice but rather how I approach support/resistance zones. Remember, always wait for confirmation, like a rejection candle or volume spike before jumping in.
TSLA Trade Thesis (Test)TSLA is holding strong at current demand. In order for price to rise, it will have to invalidate closest supply, if demand cannot hold, expecting price to sell off
:bulb: Trade Plan:
Entry Zone: $75.34
Stop Loss: $42.85
:dart: Targets:
Target 1: $139.27
Target 2: $217.02
Raise your stop-loss to entry price once we price reaches $98.95
:mag: Reasoning:
The double correction may be ending at that level for the stock market.
TSLA descending wedge into heavy support bounce? 300-330 pttesla has been slaughtered by the tariffs and social justice warriors, but it seems to be finding footing.
here we see a triple bottom on very heavy volume combined with a possible descending wedge. with earnings coming up in a few weeks (4/22, surprisingly not sunday 4/20 ha), it seems the risk/reward here is looking reasonable.
one possible way to play this with minimal cash outlay is TSLL. this is a 2x leveraged etf that also has options available on it. thile not suitable for a long term 'buy and hold', it can work well for shorter term trades without having to blow out too much cash making the risk/reward here look somewhat attractive.
target 300-330, or about a 30-40% bump from here. stops should be around 200-210, or pessimistically sub 200.
TESLA Always Pay YOURSELF! Tsla Stock were you PAID? GOLD Lesson
⭐️I want to go into depth regarding the this topic but it is a long one with PROS & CONS for doing and not doing it.
Every trader must choose what's best for them but you will SEE when I finally get to the write up that MANY OF THE PROS are NOT FINANCIAL but PSYCHOLOGICAL❗️
Another of 🟢SeekingPips🟢 KEY RULES!
⚠️ Always Pay YOURSELF.⚠️
I know some of you chose to HOLD ONTO EVERYTHING and place your STOP at the base of the WEEKLY CANDLE we entered on or the week priors base.
If you did that and it was in your plan GREAT but... if it was NOT that is a TRADING MISTAKE and You need to UPDATE YOUR JOURNAL NOW.
You need to note EVERYTHING. What you wanted to see before your exit, explain why not taking anything was justified to you, were there EARLY exit signals that you did not act on. EVERYTHING.
🟢SeekingPips🟢 ALWAYS SAYS THE BEST TRADING BOOK YOU WILL EVER READ WILL BE YOUR COMPLETE & HONEST TRADING JOURNAL ⚠️
📉When you read it in black amd white you will have YOUR OWN RECORD of your BEST trades and TRADING TRIUMPHS and your WORST TRADES and TRADING ERRORS.📈
✅️ KEEPING an UPTO DATE JOURNAL is STEP ONE.
STUDYING IT IS JUST AS IMPORTANT👍
⭐️🌟⭐️🌟⭐️A sneak peek of the LESSON after will be HOW & WHEN TO ENTER WHEN THE OPEN BAR IS GOING THE OPPOSITE WAY OF YOUR IDEA.👌
🚥Looking at the TESLA CHART ABOVE you will see that we were interested in being a BUYER when the weekly bar was BEARISH (GREEN ARROW) and we started to consider TAKE PROFITS and EXITS when the (RED ARROW) Weekly bar was still BULLISH.🚥
Time to bounceLooking like a good place to buy Tesla for a short term trade. Probably gets up to the $310 area.
First let's go down a little more and then retest broken supportFifth Elliott wave is forming. This wave may possibly extend to $160.
It is likely to test the support it broke later around $250.
* The purpose of my graphic drawings is purely educational.
* What i write here is not an investment advice. Please do your own research before investing in any asset.
* Never take my personal opinions as investment advice, you may lose your money.
Tesla Forecast 2025 - Key Support Level on $209
NASDAQ:TSLA and AMEX:SPY are both down significantly, with the former reflecting a market shift from a Keynesian economy—reliant on government spending that benefits a few well-connected corporations—to an Adam Smith-inspired liberal economy driven by the invisible hand. Could this transition, with all the buzz about tariffs, fuel inflation? That depends on how these new policies are executed, especially since $2.2 trillion of the Fed’s 2020–2022 QE remains in the system. Definitely, pushing for interest rate cuts now would be a premature shortcut.
This new approach to economic policy will sap vitality from large corporations that thrived on U.S. government spending—spanning defense contractors to retailers—while favoring innovative companies like $TSLA. Firms such as NASDAQ:TSLA , which focus on efficiency and generate real wealth rather than nominal gains, stand to gain. Technically, NASDAQ:TSLA ’s key support level on the five-year weekly chart is $209, a critical and pivotal threshold.
Tesla (TSLA) Long-Term Analysis: Retesting Key SupportHello traders! Let’s dive into a long-term analysis of Tesla (TSLA) on the monthly chart to understand where the stock might be headed next. I’ll walk you through my thought process, focusing on a comparison between the recent correction and a similar setup in 2020, while also analyzing the current correction’s alignment with the triangle formation from the 2021–2024 consolidation. My goal is to help you see the context of this setup and make an informed decision if you’re considering a trade.
Step 1: Understanding the Big Picture and Historical Context
Tesla has been in a strong uptrend since 2013, as evidenced by the ascending channel (highlighted in blue). This channel has guided the stock’s long-term trajectory, with the lower trendline providing support during pullbacks and the upper trendline acting as resistance during peaks. Within this uptrend, Tesla has experienced significant breakouts followed by corrections, and I’ve identified a compelling similarity between the current price action and a setup from 2020, alongside a key technical level from the recent consolidation.
Step 2: Comparing the Recent Correction to 2020
In 2020, Tesla consolidated in a range between $12 and $24 (labeled "Consolidation 1" on the chart). It then broke out, rallying to a high of $64.60—a gain of about 169% from the upper end of the consolidation range. Following this breakout, Tesla experienced a sharp pullback, dropping to $23.37, which represents a 63.8% correction from the $64.60 high. After finding support at this level, Tesla resumed its upward trajectory, soaring to $166.71—a 613% increase from the pullback low. Now, let’s look at the current situation: Tesla broke out of "Consolidation 2" (around 2021–2024), rallying from $212.11 to a high of $488.54—a 130% increase. It has since corrected by 51%, dropping to the current price of $239.43. This 51% pullback is slightly less severe than the 63.8% correction in 2020, but the structure is similar: both followed significant breakouts from consolidation zones.
Step 3: Current Price Action and the Triangle Retest
Tesla is currently trading at $239.43, down 55% from its recent high of $488.54. If the correction deepens to around 60%, it would bring the price to approximately $195.42 (calculated as $488.54 × (1 - 0.60) = $195.42), which aligns perfectly with the upper trendline of the triangle formation from "Consolidation 2" and the "Retest support?" zone around $170–$200. This confluence suggests that the current correction could be setting the stage for a significant bounce, just as the 2020 correction did. If this $170–$200 level fails to hold, I’m watching for a deeper pullback to the "Retest support" zone around $138–$150, which aligns with the lower trendline of the ascending channel and has acted as support during previous pullbacks (e.g., in 2023).
Step 4: My Prediction and Trade Idea
Here’s where I put myself in your shoes: if I were trading Tesla, I’d be watching for a retest of the $170–$200 support zone as a potential buying opportunity, drawing from both the 2020 playbook and the current technical setup. Why? In 2020, Tesla found support at $23.37 after a 63.8% correction, which set the stage for a 613% rally to $166.71. Similarly, a 60% correction now would bring Tesla to the upper trendline of the Consolidation 2 triangle at $170–$200, a level that could act as a springboard for the next leg up. If Tesla holds this support, I expect a move back toward the $300–$339 range, where it faced resistance before the recent drop. A break above $339 could signal a continuation toward $488.54, retesting the recent high.
Profit Targets and Stop Loss
Entry: Consider buying around $170–$200 if the price retests this support and shows signs of reversal (e.g., a bullish candlestick pattern or increased volume).
Profit Target 1: $300 (a conservative target based on recent resistance).
Profit Target 2: $339 (a more aggressive target at the prior resistance zone).
Stop Loss: Place a stop below $160 to protect against a breakdown of the $170–$200 support zone. This gives the trade a risk-reward ratio of up to 13:1 for the first target.
Risks to Consider
If Tesla fails to hold the $170–$200 support, we could see a deeper correction toward $138–$150, and potentially even $64–$90, another historical support level. Additionally, keep an eye on broader market conditions, as Tesla is sensitive to macroeconomic factors like interest rates and consumer sentiment in the EV sector. While the 2020 setup and the triangle retest provide a historical and technical parallel, the current 55% drop suggests heightened volatility, so be prepared for potential whipsaws around these key levels.
Conclusion
Tesla’s recent 55% correction from $488.54 to $239.43 echoes the 63.8% pullback in 2020 after the breakout from "Consolidation 1." If the correction deepens to 60%, it would retest the upper trendline of the Consolidation 2 triangle at $170–$200, suggesting a potential opportunity for a high-probability trade with clear profit targets and a defined stop loss. This setup could mirror the 2020 recovery, where Tesla rallied 613% after finding support. What do you think of this setup? Let me know in the comments—I’d love to hear your thoughts!
Long TSLA Next Week: Targets and Analysis
- Key Insights: Tesla's brand may face challenges, but its advancements in
autonomous driving and robotics technology provide a strong foundation for
potential growth. Despite ongoing volatility and political distractions, the
focus should be on Tesla's technological and innovative strengths. A mixed
sentiment from analysts suggests monitoring reversal signals for possible
entry points.
- Price Targets: Next week's targets for a long position are set at $255 (T1)
and $262 (T2), with stop levels at $217 (S1) and $190 (S2).
- Recent Performance: Tesla, along with other tech stocks, has faced significant
volatility influenced by broader market weaknesses. Breaking key levels
within major indices like the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 has affected Tesla's
technical outlook. Despite this, there's potential for a V-shaped recovery
led by improvements in the tech sector.
- Expert Analysis: Analysts present a dual sentiment, acknowledging the brand
issues while highlighting innovations like Tesla's role in autonomous
driving. Predictions suggest holding Tesla stock with specific price targets
in mind to leverage potential future growth.
- News Impact: Factors such as tariffs, US-China trade tensions, and
disappointing Q1 vehicle sales continue to challenge Tesla's market
position. Political actions from Elon Musk and discussions around vandalism
incidents contribute to brand challenges. However, Tesla's progress in AI
and robotics remains promising for future growth. The situation warrants
close attention to market shifts and reversal signals.
TSLA Enters the Breakdown Zone – Is $222 Next? Prepare or Avoid the Trap!
🧠 Market Insight:
The recent Trump tariff announcement has shocked the tech and EV sectors, triggering a broad sell-off across growth names. With sentiment rattled and gamma exposure skewing aggressively negative, traders are facing a high-risk, high-opportunity zone. TSLA is now sitting at a critical juncture—with both Smart Money Concepts (SMC) and Options Market positioning flashing red flags. Caution is essential, but opportunity awaits the prepared.
🔍 Technical Analysis (1H Chart):
* Break of Structure (BOS) at $243 confirms bearish intent after multiple Chochs.
* Price is holding below a major supply zone ($250–$272), now turned resistance.
* Strong bearish channel structure forming, with price consolidating just below BOS—often a sign of continuation.
* MACD is below the signal line but slightly curling upward—showing potential for a relief bounce.
* Stoch RSI is oversold, indicating exhaustion in short-term bearish momentum. Watch for a bullish crossover.
🔐 Key Levels:
* Resistance: $243.32 (prior BOS), $249.89 (HVL / NETGEX wall), $272.5 (2nd Call Wall).
* Support: $235 zone (current), $222.28 (recent swing low), $215–$210 (GEX danger zone).
💣 Gamma Exposure (GEX) Insights:
* Highest Negative NETGEX at $250 – now acting as a gamma barrier, suggesting strong dealer hedging may suppress rallies.
* Heavy put walls layered down from $235 to $210, with the 2nd PUT Wall (-66.72%) at $215, marking a likely magnetic downside zone.
* IVR: 95.2 with Call$ at 60.5% – Options are still expensive, and call bias may indicate dip-buying interest, but negative GEX outweighs that for now.
📈 Trading Scenarios:
🐻 Bearish Continuation (High Probability):
* Entry: Below $235
* Target: $222 → $215
* Stop: Above $243 BOS
* Reason: Clean break of BOS, trapped longs, negative gamma buildup
🐂 Bullish Reversal (Less Likely – Monitor):
* Entry: Bounce from $235 with strong volume + bullish MACD crossover
* Target: $243 → $249.89
* Stop: Below $230
* Reason: Oversold Stoch RSI + high IV environment may cause volatility pop
💡 Strategy Suggestions:
* Scalpers: Trade between gamma walls, especially $235 to $222 zone with tight stops.
* Swing traders: Wait for reclaim of $243 to consider long.
* Options: Buying puts carries risk due to inflated IV. Consider spreads (put debit or bear call).
⚠️ Final Thoughts:
TSLA has lost key support and sits in a high-volatility, dealer-driven gamma pocket. Directional plays are dangerous unless you're trading with the flow and reacting quickly. Be surgical, respect your stops, and scale into conviction—not noise.
🧨 This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk before trading. 🧨
TESLA: Will Keep Growing! Here is Why:
Balance of buyers and sellers on the TESLA pair, that is best felt when all the timeframes are analyzed properly is shifting in favor of the buyers, therefore is it only natural that we go long on the pair.
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❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
TESLATSLA is still in correction, we will wait for market to break above 295 and show us reaction before any buys.
Disclosure: We are part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in our analysis.
$TSLA $160-180? I think..."Technical bounce on NASDAQ:TSLA at 160-180? – Possible long???"
📉 Nasty drop on TSLA, broke below the $250 level.
🎯 Potential short setup now, with a target around $160-180.
That’s where I’ll start buying—if we get a daily or weekly reversal candle, with a stop just below support.
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