UPST: $50 or $25 First?UPST fundamentals still not looking great, but this could be an interest rate and AI play that gets price to $50 and beyond.
Do you think we see $50 first or $25 first?
UPST trade ideas
Upstart Holdings Inc. Announce Convertible Senior Notes OfferingUpstart Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: UPST) recently made headlines with the announcement of a $300 million private offering of Convertible Senior Notes due 2029, with an additional $45 million option granted to initial purchasers. This comes at a pivotal time as Upstart (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:UPST ) aims to use a portion of the proceeds for general corporate purposes and repurchase part of its outstanding 0.25% Convertible Senior Notes due 2026.
The notes, senior and unsecured, bear interest and are convertible into cash, shares of Upstart's common stock, or a combination thereof, at Upstart's discretion. The company also announced the intention to use the net proceeds to enter into capped call transactions, offsetting potential dilution in stock value. As this activity ramps up, analysts are closely watching the movement of NASDAQ:UPST , particularly its recent price action and trading indicators.
Technical Outlook
From a technical perspective, NASDAQ:UPST stock has been facing some headwinds. The stock is currently down 4.65% in Monday's session, a notable dip following the news. However, despite this downturn, there are some encouraging signs on the horizon.
1. RSI at 57: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows the stock is not yet oversold, hovering around 57. This indicates that, despite the price dip, there is still potential for upward momentum, especially if the stock enters oversold territory (below 30 on the RSI).
2. Moving Averages: NASDAQ:UPST remains above its key moving averages, offering a glimpse of support levels that could serve as a cushion against further drops. These technical levels suggest that the stock has not yet hit a bottom, but there may be opportunities for bullish investors looking to re-enter at a favorable price point.
3. Volume: Trading volume is likely to increase as the market reacts to the offering news and convertible note transactions. Historically, NASDAQ:UPST has seen higher volatility around such announcements, which could lead to short-term price swings before settling into a more stable trading range.
Further Explaining
The convertible senior notes offering shows Upstart’s focus on long-term strategic funding. The company plans to use part of the proceeds for general corporate purposes and to pay for capped call transactions, which are designed to reduce potential dilution in common stock upon note conversion.
Upstart's leadership in AI-driven lending and its continuous efforts to innovate in financial services support its potential for long-term growth. However, in the near term, the market will be watching closely how the convertible note offering plays out and whether Upstart (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:UPST ) can maintain its momentum amidst potential stock dilution concerns. The company has proven itself capable of raising capital in challenging environments, and this offering could set the stage for future innovation and growth.
Investor Consideration
For investors, the convertible note offering provides an intriguing angle. Those looking for high-risk, high-reward plays might find value in NASDAQ:UPST , as the stock is trading above key support levels. However, the stock's volatility and recent dip serve as a cautionary signal. It's also worth noting that while the RSI remains hopeful, investors should watch closely for any further breakdowns in price, which could signal more bearish momentum.
As Upstart (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:UPST ) continues to innovate with AI-powered lending and shifts in its debt structure, the stock will likely experience fluctuations. A long-term bullish outlook might remain intact if the company successfully manages this capital raise and the accompanying capped call transactions.
In conclusion, Upstart (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:UPST ) offers an intriguing mix of short-term uncertainty and long-term potential, particularly with its convertible note offering and strategic maneuvers in the financial sector. Investors should weigh these factors carefully while considering their positions in the stock.
UPST will 'UP-START' to new highs soon.UPST is conveying significant net buying / accumulation at the current price range. It is now consolidating at a very strong order block support of 14.0 to 15.0 levels.
Expect a reversal to the upside from this levels.
Multiple weekly higher lows formation was detected -- with the third one being formed this week, a massive confirmation of future price growth.
Spotted at 15.6
TAYOR.
$UPST with a golden crossNASDAQ:UPST - with a golden cross on the daily time frame after almost 9 months, it looks like we're about to see a move soon on this one. watch for a break and close over $38 resistance; above that, we could see it target $40 resistance. if it breaks through that level, chances are high it could reach new 52-week highs and possibly test that $50 mark in the coming days.
Upstart Holdings Surge Over 45% After Q2 Earnings Beat EstimatesUpstart Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:UPST ) has stunned investors and analysts alike with its recent financial performance, propelling its stock price to soar over 45% following the release of its second-quarter earnings report. This dramatic rise highlights a renewed confidence in the AI-driven lending platform, as the company showcases resilience and potential in a challenging economic landscape.
Q2 Earnings: A Remarkable Turnaround
Upstart (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:UPST ) reported a Non-GAAP EPS of -$0.17, surpassing expectations by $0.22, and revenue of $128 million, exceeding forecasts by $3.47 million. Despite a year-over-year revenue decline of 5.7%, these figures represent a significant improvement over analyst predictions. The company achieved a transaction volume of 143,900 loans, boasting a robust conversion rate of 15%, up from the previous year.
However, the financial report wasn't all positive. Upstart's net income loss widened to $54.5 million from $28.2 million in the same quarter the previous year. Despite these challenges, the company's contribution profit stood at $76.1 million, with a contribution margin of 58%, painting a mixed yet promising picture of its operational health.
Analyst Upgrades and Market Reaction
The earnings beat has led to a substantial shift in analyst perceptions. Citi upgraded Upstart from ‘Sell/High Risk’ to ‘Neutral/High Risk,’ raising their price target from $15 to $33. Piper Sandler maintained a ‘Neutral’ rating but increased their price target to $31 from $28. These upgrades reflect an improved outlook based on enhanced conversion ratios and a reduced impact of macroeconomic variables on credit losses.
Investors responded enthusiastically, with Upstart shares (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:UPST ) surging over 25% at market opening and continuing to climb, currently trading up over 45%. This rapid increase demonstrates the market's renewed optimism towards Upstart's future prospects.
AI Advancements and Strategic Outlook
CEO Dave Girouard attributed the strong performance to significant advancements in Upstart’s AI model and operational efficiencies. The company's AI-driven lending platform continues to attract and retain lending partners, a crucial component of its business model that leverages technology to streamline the personal loan process.
Upstart (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:UPST ) has provided an optimistic financial outlook for Q3, projecting revenues of around $150 million, against a consensus of $135.33 million. This projection is supported by anticipated revenue from fees and an expected positive EBITDA in the fourth quarter, signaling confidence in sustained revenue growth and potential profitability.
Market and Economic Context
The positive performance comes amidst a backdrop of mixed economic indicators and a challenging macroeconomic environment. The Upstart Macro Index, which estimates macroeconomic impacts on credit losses, alongside analyst commentary, suggests cautious optimism but highlights the need for sustained positive trends before a more bullish outlook can be confidently established.
Valuation and Long-Term Prospects
Despite the promising outlook, some analysts have expressed valuation concerns, particularly highlighting the company’s high EBITDA multiple and substantial debt levels. Upstart’s focus on integrating AI for more precise risk assessments and better loan terms showcases its pioneering role in transforming the lending industry. However, the ongoing need to manage debt and navigate a fluctuating economic landscape poses significant challenges that could impact its long-term growth trajectory and market position.
Technical Analysis and Future Trajectory
From a technical perspective, Upstart's stock has experienced extreme volatility since its IPO in December 2020, surging above $400 before crashing and losing over 95% of its value by early 2023. The stock has shown resilience, finding support near the $20.60 level and resistance above $37.
As the stock continues its rapid surge, investors should monitor its behavior around the $35.1 level, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from previous swings, and its medium-term resistance above $37. A weekly close above these levels could signal a new uptrend and provide a safer entry point for fresh long positions. Conversely, a failure to break through these resistances could see the stock fall back to the $21 level.
Conclusion
Upstart Holdings’ impressive Q2 performance and subsequent stock surge underscore its potential as a transformative player in the fintech sector. While challenges remain, particularly around valuation and economic conditions, the company’s advancements in AI and strong market positioning suggest a promising future. Investors should stay vigilant, monitoring key technical levels and broader market trends to navigate this volatile yet potentially rewarding stock.
UPST: wait for more dropUPST: wait for more drop
-Demand zone support.
-Key level support.
-Less supply volumes support.
Wait for more drop and catch this opportunity.
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US STOCKS- WALL STREET DREAM- LET'S THE MARKET SPEAK!
UPST: Buy ideaBuy idea on UPST as you can see on the chart because we have the breakout with force the resistance line.
UPST Long PositionHi traders,
Looking at Upstart Holdings (UPST), we can see that it has formed a descending triangle pattern over the past few months.
Based on Upstart Holdings' recent strong performance and positive market sentiment, there are compelling reasons to consider a long position in this stock.
Recent developments such as partnerships and expansion efforts highlight Upstart's potential for continued success. As the descending triangle pattern forms, there is potential for a breakout to the upside, further supported by the positive momentum in the broader market.
Consideration of a long position may be warranted upon confirmation of a break above the upper trendline.
1st Take Profit: 35.83
2nd Take Profit: 48.83
Final Target: 72.05
UPST: an early buy entry on consolidation rangeUPST: an early buy entry on consolidation range
-Demand zone support.
-Key level support.
-Tigh consolidation range.
Maybe forming an Inversed HnS pattern.
.
Wait n see!
.
US STOCKS- WALL STREET DREAM- LET'S THE MARKET SPEAK!
Short squeezes are happening!Discussing some potential short squeeze candidates.
Some of these names have already bolstered huge gains and looking to potentially squeeze higher if price action holds firm.
All of these names need to be monitored in the near term for opportunities.
Shorts get nervous when stocks are moving higher.
AI, SPWR, CHWY, WOOF
UPST - May be giving us a second chanceI'm a fan of this company long term which is why these low prices appeal to me. Will forsure be looking for some signs of tapering prior to reloading on my position here in here.
Happy Trading :)
UPST chart update/trade review 🔭boost and follow for more! ❤️🔥 yesterday I took a long near low of day.. why? well the trend support zone and consistent consolidation near or at the support zone which always lead to upside in the near future.
I pointed out every time I saw it happen in recent history, one of my best day trades in a while! 300%+ on weekly calls in a few hours.
now we watch for a trend resistance/long trigger break, if that can come then my upside targets should hit pretty quick ⚡
Upstart Holdings, Inc. Announced Financial Result for Q1 2024Upstart Holdings, Inc., ( NASDAQ:UPST ) the leading AI lending marketplace, has announced its financial results for the first quarter of fiscal year 2024 ended March 31, 2024. The company reported a 24% increase in revenue to $128 million, while total fee revenue increased 18% year-over-year. Transaction volume and conversion rate reached $1.1 billion across the platform, up 13% from the previous year. Income from operations was $67.5 million, up from $131.8 million in the same quarter. Net income and EPS increased by 64.6% and 27.2%, respectively. Contribution profit reached $81.1 million in Q1, up 20% year-over-year, with a contribution margin of 59%. Adjusted EBITDA was $20.3 million, up from $31.1 million in Q1 2021.
Upstart ( NASDAQ:UPST ) expects revenue of approximately $125 million in Q2, revenue from fees of around $135 million, net interest income of $10 million, contribution margin of 56%, net income of $75 million, adjusted net income of 36 million, and adjusted EBITDA of $25 million. For the second half of 2024, Upstart ( NASDAQ:UPST ) expects revenue from fees of $300 million, and positive EBITDA in the fourth quarter.
The company has not reconciled forward-looking non-GAAP measures to comparable GAAP measures due to potential variability and uncertainty in future costs and expenses. Key operating metrics and non-GAAP financial measures are described in the section titled "Key Operating Metrics" below. Reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable financial results as determined in accordance with GAAP are included at the end of this press release following the accompanying financial data.
Upstart ( NASDAQ:UPST ), an AI-powered lending platform, has been a key player in the market for loans, with the total addressable market (TAM) for annual loan originations reaching $3 trillion. The company's executives have expressed optimism about the future of the company, citing growing consumption and flat personal income rates as driving the need for lending solutions like Upstart's. They anticipate a return to sequential growth in the second half of the year and positive EBITDA by the end of the year, even in the current credit environment.
Upstart's ( NASDAQ:UPST ) earnings beat Wall Street expectations, but its forecast for the current quarter came up short compared to market sentiment. The company reported that 90% of loans were fully automated, and 91% of automated approvals converted to funded loans, which is 3x the conversion rate of non-automated loans. Average loan size was down due to robust growth in smaller dollar loans.
Upstart's ( NASDAQ:UPST ) revenue rose to $128 million, beating both Wall Street estimates and the company's own. The company's AI and machine learning lending solutions are powered by more than 1,600 variables, with models trained on over 65 million repayment events and adding an average of 82,000 new repayments each business day. With Upstart's AI lending marketplace, the company claims that lenders can approve more borrowers at lower APRs while simultaneously delivering a digital-first experience customers demand.
Technical Outlook
Despite beating world street expectations Upstart stock ( NASDAQ:UPST ) is down 5.56% with a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 45.95 trading below the 200-day Moving Average (MA).
UPST Upstart Holdings Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold UPST before the previous earnings:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of UPST Upstart Holdings prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 40usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-10-18,
for a premium of approximately $2.27.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
UPST short trade continuedThis zone is resistance on the 30 min chart. It should bounce off it to go to longer term targets of around $21.
UPST holdings short trendUPST has bounced perfectly from the short zone and should see the continuation of its trend down to the $21 area and below where it should start finding some support there.
UPST charted for 1Apr24Looking for a draw down to 24h CB (26)
Look for an hourly close above said CB, if so
then hold position up to 29 & cut half then let runners
run to PT = 31
UPST charted for 28MarWant to see either a pullback to the
top of the PotterBox or an open right
on top (27.63). Here, I'll take next week's 32c.
Be aware of a 27.30 retest. If there is lots of
volume breaking below 27.30, then look short.
UPST Ready for breakoutUPST forming Sym triangle patteren in daily chart.. i am expecting to break it on upper level
UPST (4Mar24)UPST is another play that I'm hyped about and that will remain on the WL until it gives me what I want. I've got weeklies open on this but if I need to stop out and reload, I'll do so.
UPST - 1000% seems far fetched. What about 100%?UPST - UpStart would have to move 1000% to get back to all-time highs. That is mind blowing. It is more reasonable to go 100% based on the chart. That is still mindblowing. We will see?
