UPST a long road aheadUPST has started to find a bid the last few days but the road ahead is filled with heavy bags. If the market continues higher the gap fill overhead is a decent target. Beyond that however UPST will run into near endless supply of trapped longs who jumped in on the growth mania. New money may enter with earnings this week but the slightest hint of problems and the lows are on deck.
UPST trade ideas
Great Opportunity To BUY Upstart Holdings Shares!Price touching December 2020 low and rejected, UPST shares look like a great opportunity for a good profit. However, price needs to rally above 31.18 with a pullback creating possible Higher-Low, else price likely to be going down further...
N.B
- Let emotions and sentiments work for you
-ALWAYS Use Proper Risk Management In Your Trades
UPST - Does lending get tougher with rates increase?
UPST has a better AI lending models than FICO and has gained a lot of partnerships with many small banks, like credit unions. The company claims to be able to improve loan default rates at banks by 75%. I see decent near term potentials. The stock peaked at 400 in 2021, and crashed as low as 25$ in May despite 150% YoY earning growth.
Will they be able to profit and continue to grow in this tough economy and high interest rate? Let's find out on August's earnings.
This is an interesting play. Aside from the fundamentals, here's my TPs for the near term.
Redemption I played this long into earnings in a post back then I had target over 100 (green boxes back around earnings), risk to 35 (red box where it has been trading post earnings). I noted I was hedging the ER and that worked out but I was completely wrong thinking the play was long.
Well now UPST shorts are in trouble with a close over 36 it should see explosive upside off the recently formed Navarro 200 harmonic to pt 1 55, pt2 69.. I'd expect continuation if it makes it makes it to pt2. We have seen what UPST is capable of when the ball gets rolling. The explosive upside from here will begin this week when RSI crosses above its moving average, RSI crosses have captured its performance since IPO better than any other indicator and on average UPST has a 64% upside move following RSI cross above. 64% here is approx. pt1 (this is also the 1.00 of the harmonic, pt 2 is the 1.618 and the gap fill.. so decent confluence pointing to these levels).
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Head and Shoulders Large structure and price is well below the neckline. zprice recently broke the bottom trendline of a triangle.
Short percent is right at 35%. This is very high and can cause an issue with a squeeze with a short term bounce to the upside at times.
ATL 22.61.
No recommendation, but if UPST goes below the all time low, be safe if you are long as there is no support under that price.
No recommendation.
$UPST Gap fill or sub 20Upstart - not really sure what they do ;0 - but the stock is up 15% today so someone is buying here
Bull case - Nice close above 10day MA , is a start to possible upleg for the 76.23 gap fill , currently trading around $50 implying a $26 dollar move.
Bear case - a new high is not made and upon rejection lower lows targeting $20 zone or less, implying around a -30$ move
With the giant gap above I think it's important to remember supply and demand here - most holders who didn't sell are sitting higher above (supply), seeing their ticker have +15% days is very promising! As such they are holding (bag holders), until break even at least or more, hence there will be heavy supply once ticker gets to this zone but not much until then, for those people already sold. And now we have demand/ buyers with bottom fishing who are currently up depending on entry. They will sell along the way causing dips, however many who bought in 30's and even 40's are green and holding for more.
Hence under the above, Demand should outweigh supply until gap fill zone...
Trade idea for bull case - Calls are expensive and I want time here, so JUL 60/80 debit spread, as given the supply area will most likely IMO overwhelm demand after gap fill .
Trade idea for bear case - bear call spreads for less risk or naked puts a few months out with $37 being first target.
My bias is to the upside
Cheers
previous price targets smashed! congrats to the shorts here in my last analysis when we were at 74 I gave short term bearish targets are 70.41-65.29-60.17, long term targets of 43.56-13.48.. its safe to say almost all our targets were smashed! congrats to UPST shorts :)
now we are at the last line of support at 22-23 area... if it cannot hold my last target of 13 should hit. but a bounce here can send it on a much needed bull rally! lets see what happens :)
Upstart | UPST | Gap-Fill BelowUpstart Holdings ( NASDAQ:UPST ) is likely to *eventually* fill the gap below (between $62.26 and $75.15) and may go for $45 (or lower). Insiders have dumped almost $1.8 billion shares since it entered the market. Is now a good time to enter? That's a hard call. There is a small gap just above the current price that may want to be filled and it could go for resistance again. However, this will likely follow the market moves. If plays start skyrocketing, it'll likely go with the flow. But, if the indexes tank further, I expect this to be right behind.
NASDAQ:UPST has a 72 million float with a 14% short interest (as of March 15, 2022), so careful of a squeeze down the road if the indexes reverse. Otherwise, in the longer-run, I anticipate the gap below to be filled at a minimum.
Technical Analysis for Risk AnalysisTechnical Analysis should be used for Risk Analysis, not just for deciding if and when to buy whatever it is you want to trade, whether it's stocks, crypto, forex, indexes, ETFs, REITs, mutual funds, etc.
When you know the technical patterns that point to higher risk, aka sellers gaining traction, you can get out of long positions before the retail crowd and its small fund managers react late to earnings reports.
It is NEVER the largest institutions, who we call the Dark Pools, who are selling on earnings announcements. It is ALWAYS the less informed who buy or sell on big news days.
This is what we at TechniTrader call "Relational Technical Analysis"--the application of what we know about the market participant groups to discern who is doing what in the technical patterns of a chart.
For example: UPST was a struggling IPO anyway. The typical IPO top and drop occurred in October-November. 99% of new IPOs do this. Learn to sell at the peak of a speculative new IPO. That means you must learn what speculation looks like in the charts and how to recognize the top developing so you can get out before the drop.
But today's lesson is about the specific set of negative technical patterns developing ahead of Upstart's earnings report yesterday after the market close:
1. A trading range was developing lower highs and lower lows.
2. Compression of price at the low end of the range.
3. Declining Accumulation/Distribution over the sideways action of the trading range.
These are what we at TechniTrader call the "footprints" of controlled rotation out of the stock ahead of the earnings press release date.
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UPST further downside?UPST is one of my favourite comapnies, with a unique business model and expertise. However, it is also a great example of a great busines not being a great investment all of the time. Based on simple work on the Daily timeframe, it appears the stock has a bit more to go on the downside.
UPST has held the traendline going back to IPO fairly well, and now seems to have broken, tested, and confirmed this break. This opens up various target-74, 50, and theoretically 22 as well though that would appear to be unlikely.