UPSTD trade ideas
UPST I did open some call options and I’ve been playing this stock quite a bit these past few weeks as it’s been very volatile and insanely awesome to trade and make a lot of money. I opened some calls around $143 range and I’m kind of looking at this as a potential risinf wedge leading up to down trendinf resistance. My idea here is to watch the 160 level as that was a previous high, but mainly I’m watching the 164 to 165 range as that some daily ribbon and ichumochi cloud resistance. If by chance we could break above and hold above 165 this thing is going to absolutely tear, however I’m expecting a pretty solid rejection in that range
UPST Looks Pretttttttty good...UPST lo
Looks like it could be a big mover.. We will see. It's always great to have ones like these to have fun with!
Check out historically the performance of the stock price when certain conditions are met. Right now we are seeing a bullish trend and possibly break out of a brutal downtrend.
ABC BullishPossible stop below C or where you see support . Price appears to be meeting resistance at the prior gap up.
You can calculate targets by subtracting A from B. Taking that number and multiplying it by .386, .618 and .786. Then add these values to the long entry level. You may see a long entry at a different level than I do, but it does need to clear resistance.
No recommendation.
UPST fell from an ugly top but seems to have settled in to a prior gap
Gap Fills To be honest I'm a bit confused on the direction of the stock. I do believe that this bearish trend isn't over like block and paypal however the lower gap on the daily seems pretty enticing for shorts. i'm currently down because i bought a stupid call contract but I'll be selling it at market open.
$UPST: Long way down...I think $UPST is poised to fall hard from here, for a good while, back to the start of the crazy uptrend we had since August 2021. I've personally managed to capture a great upside trade, and now moved into speculating on the downside here...I've shared these with my signals service clients in real time, and also commented on it in the Key Hidden Levels chatroom here.
There's a chance the company's business model is fraudulent, and it had an unbelievably crazy upside move recently, which strikes me as a bubble that is bursting. I am not seeing a rational way to justify the valuation it commands and it has a weak to non existent moat when compared against $SOFI or other lenders...Using AI as a buzzword isn't a good enough reason. Their default rates could end up being much worse than they anticipate based on their models too.
Anyways, from a technical perspective, this is a good chance to short the stock given that the weekly uptrend signal that predicted the rally the stock had has expired, and it implies a potential move back down to the start of the trend if weakness ensues. Best of luck!
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
UPST upside targetAfter a long down move, UPST is forming a T cup w/ handle formation on 1hr and I have drawn out an ABCDE pattern with an upside target of $200. Nice R/R on a swing trade from the bottom. Not financial advice. Trade Safe
UPSTSell off is not over. I can see us selling until we hit $107.26 this month. It continues to show sign of weakness on the monthly TF.
Upstart's Next RallyElliot Wave Analysis on $UPST:
1- Corrective Wave 2 should most likely be completed somewhere in the zone depicted on the chart
2- Wave 2 may not be complete before 17 Mar 2022
3- Wave A, the first leg down of Wave 2, is already stretched enough so the price should reverse to the upside sooner than later
4- Wave 3, which is usually the longest and strongest of all waves has a price target of $750 to $1130. A more accurate target can be estimated once Wave 2 is complete
5- A very rough estimate shows us that Wave 3 should be completed around mid-2024 yielding 5x to 8x if $UPST is purchased at today's price around $140
This is not financial advice, DYODD
$UPST - Gap Fill SuccessfulOver the past couple of days, $UPST has regressed heavily and filled the gap it made back in August.
With Fed meetings over, and the newly bullish momentum in the markets, this name is primed to make a hefty reversal.
We have a small handful of resistances overhead, but I'm confident we'll be able to surpass them given enough bullish volume .
If we run hot enough, we even have a huge gap to fill above 270! I'll be keeping a close eye on this one heading into the new year.
ONG swingtrading swing support Supply Zone gap gapfill reversal bottom
UPST main Investment chartNASDAQ:UPST
This is a long term investment and not a trade, I am looking to hold this company stock the long term (more than 3 years). And before presenting my fundamental analysis, A good price entry point is my concern, All analysis discussed in order below:
Fundamental analysis:
Founders background check:
- Founder's objective and CEO management is the most important thing for the success of a company. Screening through upstart company we can find out that founders are three:
- Dave Girouard : From his Linkedin page, his most notable previous experience is working at:
1- Apple as product manager for 2.5 years (From Apple website we can see that the Product Manager job description is to deliver process and analytic systems AND drive decision automation using machine learning and conceptualize, build, and deliver automated decision analytics . Even though we do not have his superiors review his work in Apple, we can assume being a Manager at Apple means he know the work he is doing, secondly his work experience in Apple is relevant to his business which all rotate around machine learning, artificial intelligence and data analytics.
2- Google as Enterprise President for 8 years creating cloud apps business, at this level of experience in the same field of clouds and analytics and AIs MLs, its clear we can find article around him in search engines and about his previous projects and works. This guy background is a sold one.
- Anna Counselman : from her Linkedin page we can find out she worked with Dave Girouard in Google and they left Google at the same year and founded Upstart, his specialty is customer relations, services, operations and sales. It is a good combination but we need to see whether this company is build on opportunity they find in the market or they are two people falling in love with each other and decided to make their own wealth. This is not an issue as each one seem to have a different stable life and marriage, clear.
- Paul Gu : we don't have much information about him except he graduated from Yale University and worked in multiple companies.
All three co-founders are highly invested, but Girouard has a massive financial interest in the company, with 17.5% of the outstanding shares.
We can also find big names under the company's management team. This is a very positive sign.
Business model:
- Before looking at the stock of the company, we have to realize that this stock is actually based on a company behind it, and if this company is useless, on the long term the stock of it will be doomed. The company use AI based proprietary model to analyse credits instead of the traditional way of credit analysis (FICO score and income verification) which use limited number of variables, instead Upstart use more variables. Upstart helps customers get loans in two main ways: It does the marketing on its own to find customers and then pass them off to banks and credit unions, or banks can essentially embed Upstart's technology within their websites and branding. In term of growth, if we look at the company's revenue, it is not slowing down and if they expanded their model from personal loan lending AI model to Mortgages market, the boom will be on another whole level. In the long term, this have to be a great business model as long as their AI model is different and can't be replicated. AI technology develop better the more data it analyse, because Upstart is one of the first companies in this field and partnering with automotive lending retailers (Step one automotive group, Heritage Volkswagen, Cadillac of Greenwich, Germain automotive partnership includes ford hondai mazda lexus toyota VW and much more), if we look for banks that upstart partnering with are (First National Bank of Omaha, first federal bank of Kansas city and customers bank).
Price wise:
- UPST shown a very upside possibility and now the down turn happened due to correcting from the speculative up price movement as well as due to the market enters RISK OFF period which will show strength with the USD while the market lose new participations.
Artificial Intelligent Insurance Upstart Holdings
Leading artificial intelligence (AI) lending platform designed to improve access to affordable credit while reducing the risk and costs of lending for our bank partners. Our platform uses sophisticated machine learning models to more accurately identify risk and approve more applicants than traditional, credit-score-based lending models. They are considered a financial insurance company.
Since its IPO back in December 2020, it has had a 1400% gain.
We are currently at 3 levels of support :
Horizontal support
Uptrend support
61.8% Fibonacci retracement line
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$VIX is at 28 as I write this, so I advise smaller positions to be able to handle more volatility.
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UPST updateUPST forming a reversal pattern into some strong support. Previous scenario turned into continuation move down.
$UPST - Trade ideaThis will be my one public trade idea for the week. Any others will go up on the cord.
UPST is looking for WAVE A bottom. Possible double bottom already forming now - but I think it makes 1 more new low before reversing. I will be watching for signs of reversal on this name daily for entry.
Two things will trigger my entry here:
1) bullish divergence on all time frames while in between 137 and 150.
2) a breakout over the SECOND TL. I usually draw a channel or a parallel line and alert on the far one because I dont want to buy a fake out
After reversal I think this could get to 200 quick
UPST: bottom found at 160 - upside target 250.UPST has had a crazy run and dump, and while many high P/S names are still badly damaged, with UPST being one of the first ones to fade, it is also appearing to be one of the first to recover. Clear double bottom around 160 which also bumped into it's longer term uptrend line (the thick green line). Even now aroudn 190, I think this is still a decent time to enter for a trade over the coming weeks. Should be able to find it's way towards 250, which would also be roughly a 50% retracement of it's precipitous drop. Risk/reward looks strong here to me.
upst short update2hr tf reveal a small swing level. would keep an eye on how market respects that level. bearish bias in place though
#UPST - Bag Holding - I know it's hard, but keep holding#UPST is pretty close to some previous support and is also close to a Fib level. For those with a long time horizon, I would keep on holding.
Upst to continue dumpingCan't u feel it? there's a fire sale on All these company trading with high PE ratios before 2022 rate hike.
Upst will finish up with its H&S And return to 114 via bear channel.
BIG PICTURE // UPSTWill Keep Updating
Targets
-390$
-535$
-770$
-1500$
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