X trade ideas
X long based off, surprisingly enough, fib extensions I'm day trading full time now and, being much busier, have fallen out of the habit of posting my swing ideas on here. By way of apology, here's my analysis of my favorite trade I've made in the last few months.
US steel has had a good run over the last four months, moving an average of 7 points a month since June of this year after 3.5 years of accumulation. I picked up X long in my swing portfolio when it broke 33. I sold out of it at the 40 psychological resistance level, quite happy with my seven points. As it turns out, maybe I shoulda held onto it for a little longer.
The question on all the funny mentalists minds is: when will this rally end? Coincidentally enough, I've been wondering the same. I mean, look at that month chart. Ain't it about time we put in a red bar? Maybe.
Now for the reason for the fibs. As i was doing my price action levels, I noticed a trend as I went from month to week to day, looking at the 2011 timeframe: my levels looked a helluva lot like fib levels. So I traded out my median around 41 for the fib base and ran the upper bound to 64, the peak from February 2011 and area of major distro in 2010. Lo and behold, all the levels were almost 1:1 with mine. Freaking neat.
Where from here? Think of the momentum this name has. We've put 20-some points on the board in four months. We're coming off of almost four years' worth of accumulation. So I'm thinking to 52 before we see a retracement, and I don't think that's gonna be a big one...maybe three points and then sideways for a while. I plan on buying a handful of nov14 50 call contracts and one or two 40 puts to hedge. The market is choppy as hell right now and I strongly recommend strangling any long you decide to take.
Follow Up Previous Post (Watch $47.33 and $45.05 for close)A month ago, we took to analyse the ascending bullish triangle plus the run away gap up. It looks short sellers are not buying recent change of trend after a sustained downward trend for last 5-years. It seems now the stock in an early stage of come back but yet needs to be seen if it will sustain next few months. if price now solves overhead resistance 47.33 area, next major resistance will be at $63 area. If you need a real time alert try us www.2waytrading.com
Will the gap get filled? Breakaway gaps don't get filled easyLast 3-sessions there were some price weakness or pull back from this wonderful upside break out. The price broke out from a solid base with huge volume. This qualifies a breakaway gap which happens at the end of a price pattern and signal the beginning of a new trend. If you look at the chart u will see the ascending bullish triangle had a projected price target at and around where FIB 25% falls 34.50 which is now a history. If price pulls back to that level, we will buy.
Idea for my Reddit friendThe red arrows show possible outcomes if the minor green channel forming an uptrend (blue lines) in the channel was broken we would have taken a short position, but the uptrend channel(blue lines) was held so the long position was what held. I hope that makes some sense. My channel is in red from my perspective, i left yours in green
United States Steel Corp - X - Daily - 33 TARGET REACHED!REPUBLISHING UNTOUCHED CHART
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Tim 33.22 last 1:35PM EST 7/30/2014
X: Distribution ChannelNot totally confident that price will reach targets 2&3 but I do like a short back to the 24/23 levels. If momentum doesn't get absorbed to the downside, we could see a retest of about 20/19.
United States Steel Corp X Daily BUY SIGNAL from SP500 RemovalIf X can trade an entire session above $26, this will setup a very nice buy signal. One of my favorite signals of all time is not a technical signal at all, but a KICK-OUT of the S&P500 Index. I don't publish these often, so don't expect me to continue posting them. This one is especially interesting because we are kicking an old classic out of an index, and it just seems like the end of an era to kick X out of the S&P. This is kind of like when self-winding-windows in our cars went away.
The reason this is a buy signal is that a removal from the S&P500 Index forces people to sell it without thinking and historically speaking, companies that come out of the S&P500 Index have done particularly well, especially over the ensuing 3-6-9 month time frames.
I don't see X going under $24, but I have put the stop at $23.37 and am looking for a long term goal of $33-$34.
Tim 1:15PM EST, Monday, June 30, 2014 X 25.96 last, -0.06. Low today $25.57 on a gap down.
US STEEL (X): Target ReachedThis post is related to my previous post which listed US Steel as a short candidate (please view attached post). We had stated that US Steel would drop down to the 23 level at the very least. On Friday, the stock traded through our target thus fulfilling our expectation.
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US Steel: Breaking DownTwo big volume down days have pushed X's price down substantially. I expect carryover downside momentum to take the stock to 23 at the very least and break the previous support area. MACD histogram aggressively trending down and the Bollinger bands are expanding indicating further downside movement here.
The value of investments may go down as well as up and you may not get back your original investment. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. This information is suitable for institutional and other accredited investors only. This document does not constitute, or form part of an offer to issue or sell, nor a solicitation to subscribe, in shares, units or other interests in investments. Nor does it constitute investment advice and is for information purposes only. Although wei have taken all reasonable care to ensure that the information contained within is accurate at the time of publication, no representation or warranty is made as to its accuracy, reliability or completeness.
X (US Steel) - New Target @ 30.422 | #Steel #NYSE X (US Steel) - New Target @ 30.422 | #Steel #NYSE
Pending bullish market reversal signal
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Continues to consolidate after a significant break out---- Big short interest could fuel a big move higher in upcoming weeks
