ZM - Pandemic Era ShortShort Position on Zoom
2019 was a memorable year, highlighting our deep desire for connection in a world of hyper-connectivity via the internet. Reflecting on the pandemic-era stock market, Zoom stands out as a company that experienced exponential growth. However, it is rare for a business to dominate a single sector without diversifying into different segments or niches. For instance, Microsoft excels in multiple areas, including computers, government contracts, tangible assets, partnerships, Office, and a reputable brand, which arguably justifies another decade of growth due to its brand value alone.
In contrast, Zoom, often referred to as a “pandemic darling,” has clients and appears poised for growth. However, it faces intense competition for market share from WebEx, Microsoft Teams, BlueJeans, Skype, and Cisco. The video conferencing space is highly saturated, raising the question of what makes Zoom’s stock so valuable.
Given the current market sentiment, I propose a short position on Zoom. My strategy includes a stop loss at $65.50 to manage risk and a profit target at $50.00 for the long term. This approach leverages the competitive landscape and investor sentiment to capitalize on potential declines in Zoom’s stock price.
STOP TGT - 65.50
PROFIT TGT I - 50.00
PROFIT TGT II - Sub 45.00 till bust
ZMD trade ideas
Zoom's Potential Downtrend Line Breakout At $60.94. 22.08.2024Apply risk management
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ZOOM: $66 | From Video to an Ai Assistant somehowwe all know zoom DOMINATED during the the COVID Breakout
yet when the Vaccine was rolled out by WHO and Fauci it discounted quickly to rollback to where it came from
Google Meeting is killing it Microsoft meeting is getting a piece of the pie
the ai angle in zoom iQ may take a while for ENTERPRISE players to digest
to put it simply its a business to business model
that reminds me of Business INtelligence of Msoft or
EXECUTIVE DASHBOARD appls back in 2005ish
it's a different flavor of BARD or HER that Robot Assistant movie
needs a great PACKAGER to roll this out
if this pans out.. this can be YUUUUGE!
ZOOM iQ = a glorified Executive Assistant that summarizes meetings.
6/13/24 - $zm - ST swing long into today's close ~$586/13/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:ZM
As written about just 3 weeks ago when they reported EPS, the setup was non-obvious and i remained on the sidelines. we've chopped all over the place but the factor gawds finally got the best of NASDAQ:ZM and basically everything else that's software in the last week and especially the last two sessions.
I HAVE NO IDEA BUT I THINK A FUND IS BLOWING UP AND BEING FORCED TO UNWIND A BOOK THAT INCLUDES A LOT OF SOFTWARE AND THERE ARE NO BIDS
this is conjecture. but i've been around. i sniffed this out on NASDAQ:AAPL vs. NASDAQ:NVDA without knowing exactly what was going on into friday's close.
right now we're in value territory for $zm. remember nearly 40% of this co's value is CASH. i honestly wish they'd stop being stupid and use it to buy stock or just give it back (good riddance). sitting on cash is a low IQ move in this environment for co's. i digress... but it's part of the example of why zoom mgmt sucks among many other factors.
with that caveat out of the way (the point being... we're playing reversion, not world-beater, turn around or anything more interesting), the valuation is simply "too low" all else equal esp as market looks to rip higher (i'll write more on this in a bit, maybe tmr). these dumped names with negative gamma, possible fund hunting (where industry knows who is blowing up and further attacking their portfolio to the short side) as well as the AI-factor... means there's a higher probability 60/40? 70/30? that we resolve higher short term.
i'm swinging long NASDAQ:ZM here at $58 with exit at $60. or i'll sell some calls if/as we get there. but i don't want to get cute. this is a shorter term trade for me. i like the margin of safety on the cash balance, buyback, the EPS adj. for cash is ~7x at this pt - honestly too low. take out territory etc. any narrative works more than "it's going lower" - b/c it can - but why.
be safe out there, but there's a lot of software now selling at deep discount. not all of it. much of it is going lower. but know where to pick spots to take stabs as we remain tape risk on.
V
ZOOM 70 % rally comingZOOM remains bearish.
Last week we had both bearish engulfing weekly and monthly close.
We expect the downtrend to continue and retest lows from 2019.
After that if we get bullish divergences, it may be the time to accumulate zoom stock.
If we break below previous all time lows, new lows may be coming as the price will enter the discovery mode to the downside therefore it´s important to set up the stop loss.
Entry, target and stop loss are shown in the chart.
ZOOM Long UpdateSeems clear ZOOM is going to lose the low; recounting waves allows another low but only just. Long plan doesn't change much in this scenario. However, a major capitulation is possible if this was actually a distribution instead of accumulation range and the long invalidation is on the chart as a blue dotted horizontal line. Personally, I won't sell even if we do capitulate since it remains an undervalued stock IMO; I will continue to average down in this event.
ZOOM LongZoom has been consolidating and forming a rounded bottom for a while. It is much cheaper now than before Covid and yet is a much stronger business so undervalued IMO. Either way, the chart looks like the downtrend is over and it has completed waves 1 and 2 of a new impulsive uptrend. Recent price action appears to have completed the retrace of wave 1 of 3, so we should expect a strong move up fairly soon; buying now means you avoid the agonising sideways chop long-term holders have had to deal with and still benefit from all the upside!
Zoom (ZM): Zoom Bottoming Out? Major Accumulation Signs!A stock we previously considered "dead" and seemingly on its last legs is Zoom. Despite its current low standing, it warrants another look.
Zoom is currently trading around its lowest level ever, approximately $58 to $59. This is a stark contrast to its all-time high of $588, marking a significant sell-off following the end of the COVID-19 pandemic. Stocks like Zoom are challenging to evaluate due to the massive fluctuations in value.
Historically, Zoom has tested and held the $250 level seven times, but now, for the first time, it’s been in a prolonged sideways movement. This could indicate an accumulation phase, often seen when stocks are at their lowest, suggesting that Zoom might be finding a bottom.
Moreover, there's a trendline within this accumulation phase that has been touched three times, reinforcing the possibility that Zoom is stabilizing. This trendline might act as a support level, potentially leading to a period of growth or at least stability.
Zooming in further, we notice that during this accumulation phase, there are four notable touchpoints on the trendline. While two points dip slightly lower, this is not overly concerning given the overall price action. The trading volume within this phase is visible and consistent, with price movements often oscillating around the Point of Control (POC) at $67. Prices fluctuate above and below this level but tend to return to the POC, indicating strong trading interest at this price point.
Currently, Zoom has the potential to rise towards $72, which corresponds to the High Volume Node Edge. This movement could involve a retest of both the trendline and the POC. A successful retest and subsequent breakout from these levels could provide the necessary momentum to break out of the accumulation phase, potentially opening the door for significant upward movement.
In summary, while Zoom has faced a dramatic decline, the current price movement and trendline support could indicate a phase of accumulation, suggesting that it might not be entirely out of the game yet. While this scenario is intriguing, it is also fraught with risk. Therefore, we are opting to remain on the sidelines for now, monitoring the situation closely.
Zoom Video Communications Reports Results for First QuarterZoom Video Communications ( NASDAQ:ZM ) has raised its annual forecast for profit and revenue, citing robust demand for its product portfolio as companies continue to adopt hybrid work. The company's efforts to incorporate artificial intelligence (AI) and broaden its range of services have been successful, with the introduction of Zoom Workplace, an AI-powered, open collaboration platform in March, along with new AI companion expansions first unveiled in September last year, for paid users. Zoom, along with platforms like Microsoft's Teams and Cisco's CSCO.O, opens new tab Webex, are pandemic darlings, which most businesses and individuals turned to for connecting with employees and friends.
The company now expects 2025 revenue of about $4.61 billion to $4.62 billion, up from its earlier forecast of about $4.6 billion. Analysts expect revenue of $4.61 billion, according to LSEG data. On an adjusted basis, it expects full-year earnings between $4.99 and $5.02 per share, compared with its previous forecast of between $4.85 and $4.88. For the second quarter, Zoom sees revenue between $1.145 billion and $1.150 billion, slightly below analysts' average estimate of $1.15 billion.
The company posted revenue of $1.14 billion, up 3.2%, for the first quarter ended April 30 and above analysts' expectations of $1.13 billion. Zoom Video Communications ( NASDAQ:ZM ) reported financial results for the first fiscal quarter of fiscal year 2025, with total revenue of $1,141.2 million, up 3.2% year over year as reported and 3.5% in constant currency. Enterprise revenue was $665.7 million, up 5.3% year over year, and Online revenue was $475.5 million, flat year over year.
Income from operations and operating margin was $203.0 million, compared to GAAP income from operations of $9.7 million in the first quarter of fiscal year 2024. Non-GAAP net income for the first quarter was $426.3 million, after adjusting for stock-based compensation expense and related payroll taxes, acquisition-related expenses, restructuring expenses, litigation settlements, net, and the tax effects on non-GAAP adjustments. Non-GAAP net income per share was $1.35. In the first quarter of fiscal year 2024, non-GAAP net income was $353.3 million, or $1.16 per share.
Cash and marketable securities were $7.4 billion, with net cash provided by operating activities being $588.2 million for the first quarter, compared to $418.5 million in the first quarter of fiscal year 2024, up 40.6% year over year. Free cash flow, which is net cash provided by operating activities less purchases of property and equipment, was $569.7 million, compared to $396.7 million in the first quarter of fiscal year 2024, up 43.6% year over year.
Customer metrics for total revenue included acquiring new customers, with 3,883 customers contributing more than $100,000 in trailing 12 months of revenue, up approximately 8.5% from the same quarter last fiscal year.
Technical Outlook
Zoom Video Communications stock ( NASDAQ:ZM ) has been forming a Trough and Crest pattern or should and Neck pattern concurrently for the past 1 year now. The stock is down 1.69% in Premarket Trading approaching support level of $61 a move that will validate a bearish reversal.
5/20/24 - $zm - leaning +ve but not EPS layup... confusing setup5/20/24 - vrockstar - NASDAQ:ZM - as much as thef fundamental "gut" tells me this is a layup into earnings, DD FCF yields, when adj. for net cash the PE is 8-9x. in theory if the sales *don't* decline this year - that's stupid cheap. also any talk of AI tools and ppl's willingness to use/pay for additional features should send this thing. on the converse, the growth really is anemic. so timing this really seems more of a tea leaves reading exercise. the balance of risk seems skewed positively but i may fund a call spread by selling some variant of P's or related spread/ undecided just yet - where i'm willing to own this lower or eat the downside risk. tape seems willing to pause ahead of NVDA later this week, which means it's unlikely we get an x-factor unrelated to eps that moves us one way or another. lmk what you think in the comments if you have a POV. i've traded this one for some time. feels like BABA but without the growth. hrm.
ZM Zoom Video Communications Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought ZM before the previous earnings:
Then, after analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of ZM Zoom Video Communications prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 65usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-12-20,
for a premium of approximately $8.00.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
I saw this one comingA massive double bottom apparently is forming out here. As you can see the price has tried to break the 75 level a few times before. Now is going to try again and is pushing with a lot of volume this time. I have a long position here. It may take a few more weeks to consolidate before break out. But it is worth the waiting.
ZM: Zoom is zooming into a black hole of disasterThere is almost noting bullish about ZM. After the huge selloff for months it's been a bear flag consolidation for weeks. With general market weakness intensifying, ZM has no chance here. Most likely in lower double digits to single digit in the next year or so. We might see a bounce first due to RSI oversold conditions, but wouldn't expect much. It will be a pump and dump scheme for investors to get out. They have no use case left as Microsoft and Apple have cornered the market for video conference. I hope google or some other big tech buy them out and put them out of their misery. I don't own or hold any stocks, so I have no skin in the game, but this is just sad to watch. I like the product better than teams or face time. But market doesn't like it and that's what counts.
ZM Zoom Video Communications Options Ahead of Earnings If you haven`t sold ZM before the previous earnings:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of ZM Zoom Video Communications prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 61usd strike price in the money Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-3-1,
for a premium of approximately $3.95.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.