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Highs and Lows Move Together: A Key Insight for Retail Traders█ Understanding Daily Highs and Lows in Trading When it comes to trading, understanding the dynamics of daily price movements is essential. Daily highs and lows, which represent the highest and lowest prices of an asset within a single trading day, are more than just numbers—they provide valuable insights into market behavior, volatility, and potential trading opportunities. █ What Are Daily Highs and Lows? Daily Highs: The highest price an asset reaches during a trading day. Daily Lows: The lowest price an asset hits during the same period. Price Range: The difference between the daily high and low, which gives a measure of the day's volatility. These metrics are crucial for traders because they not only reflect the volatility but also highlight the turning points in the market. A wide price range indicates high volatility, while a narrow range suggests the opposite. █ Insights from Research Research shows that daily highs and lows are not just random occurrences—they are statistically significant and can be forecasted with reasonable accuracy. For example, models that analyze the relationship between daily highs, lows, and the price range can outperform simple predictions based on past prices alone. ⚪ Highs and Lows as Important Levels: The daily high is the highest price that an assets reaches in a day, and the daily low is the lowest price. These points are important because they often act like barriers in the market. If the price approaches the daily high, it might struggle to go higher, like hitting a ceiling. If it can’t break through, it might start to fall back down. Similarly, when the price gets close to the daily low, it might find support, like hitting a floor, and start rising again. ⚪ Market Reactions: When the price reaches these highs or lows, it often reacts strongly. For instance, if the price hits a high but then drops, it suggests that traders think the price shouldn’t go higher, leading to a possible reversal. On the other hand, if the price keeps pushing against a high and finally breaks through, it could signal the start of a new upward trend. In simple terms, the highs and lows act like important checkpoints in the market. Watching how prices behave around these levels can give traders clues about what might happen next. █ Key Findings ⚪ Daily Highs and Lows Move Together: The study found that the highest and lowest prices of oil each day are connected and tend to move together over time. This connection means that if one changes, the other usually does too. For retail traders, this suggests that tracking these levels can provide important clues about where the market might be heading next. ⚪ Price Ranges Indicate Volatility: The difference between the daily high and low (known as the price range) is a strong indicator of how volatile the market is. A large range means the market is very active and prices are swinging widely. For traders, this could mean more opportunities to profit, but also more risk. Conversely, a small range indicates a calmer market with less movement. ⚪ Better Forecasting Models: The study shows that by understanding the relationship between daily highs, lows, and the price range, traders can use more accurate models to predict future prices. These models outperform simpler methods that many traders might be using. For retail traders, this means there are better tools available that can help them make more informed decisions and potentially increase their chances of success. █ Daily Highs and Lows Move Together Daily highs and lows are connected and influence each other. This means that the highest and lowest prices of an asset during a trading day tend to move in relation to one another. Imagine you're tracking the price of crude oil. On Monday, the highest price of the day was $80 per barrel, and the lowest was $75 per barrel. On Tuesday, the price went up, with the high being $88 and the low being $79. What the research found is that these daily highs and lows tend to follow a pattern or move in sync with each other over time. The increase in both the high and low suggests that overall market sentiment is positive, and traders are willing to pay more, even at the lowest prices of the day. █ What It Actually Means ⚪ Connection Between Highs and Lows: If the daily high price increases, the daily low price often increases too, and vice versa. This doesn’t mean they are the same price, but rather that they tend to trend in the same direction. For instance, if the market is generally moving up (bullish), both the daily high and low prices will usually increase from one day to the next. ⚪ Why They Move Together: This movement happens because the factors driving the price up or down (like supply and demand, market sentiment, or external news) impact both the high and low of the day. If there’s strong buying pressure, it will push the daily high up and also raise the floor, or daily low, as sellers adjust their expectations. █ What It Means for Retail Traders For new traders, understanding and using daily highs and lows can be a game-changer. These metrics offer a glimpse into market sentiment, help identify trading opportunities, and can form the foundation of robust trading strategies. By incorporating the analysis of daily highs and lows into your trading routine, you can make more informed decisions and improve your chances of success in the markets. Understanding that daily highs and lows move together can help you predict market trends. If you see a pattern where both the highs and lows are steadily rising, it’s a sign that the market is in an uptrend, and you might decide to buy, expecting prices to keep climbing. Conversely, if both are falling, it might indicate a downtrend, suggesting it’s a good time to sell or avoid buying. █ Reference He, A.W.W., Kwok, J.T.K., & Wan, A.T.K. (2010). An empirical model of daily highs and lows of West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices. Energy Economics, 32(6), 1499–1506. ----------------- Disclaimer This is an educational study for entertainment purposes only. The information in my Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information. All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on evaluating their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs. My Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems are only for educational purposes!
OANDA:BCOUSDEducation
by Zeiierman
1
Brent’s Bear Trap Sparks Relief RallyBrent crude has surged more than 8% from last week’s lows, marking a significant recovery in the oil market. Let’s dive into the technical and fundamental factors driving this rally and identify the key price levels to watch in the coming days. Geopolitical Tensions: The Catalyst Behind Brent’s Resurgence A key driving factor behind Brent’s recent resurgence has been escalating tensions in the Middle East, sparking fears of a broader conflict that could disrupt global oil supplies. The US Defence Department’s decision to deploy a guided missile submarine to the region underscores the escalating stakes, with Iran and its allies threatening retaliation. Such a scenario raises the prospect of US sanctions on Iranian crude, which could remove up to 1.5 million barrels per day from the market. This potential supply shock has jolted oil prices higher, as traders brace for the possibility of a significant tightening in global crude supplies. Technical Analysis: A Bear Trap Ignites Breakout Daily Timeframe: Last week’s price action saw Brent crude execute a classic bear trap—a scenario where prices briefly dip below a key support level, drawing in sellers, only to reverse sharply within a couple of sessions. This false breakout, or ‘fakeout,’ caught short-sellers off guard and sparked a wave of buying as prices rebounded, breaking above the descending trendline that had capped Brent’s price action throughout July. This breakout signals a notable shift in short-term momentum from bearish to bullish. However, Brent is now approaching the 200-day simple moving average, a closely watched technical level that can act as resistance. Brent Crude Daily Candle Chart Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results Hourly Timeframe: Zooming in on the hourly chart, Brent’s bullish momentum is evident, with prices forming steep ascending trendlines that underscore the strength of the recent rally. However, this momentum is now facing a significant test as Brent approaches a short-term resistance zone formed by the swing highs of late July and early August. A decisive break above this resistance would not only reaffirm the bullish trend but also coincide with a break above the 200-day moving average—a key technical signal that could attract more buyers and pave the way for a move toward the early July highs. On the other hand, if Brent fails to clear this resistance, the market could see a retracement, potentially revisiting the levels around last week’s bear trap. This area will be crucial for traders to monitor, as it could serve as a strong support zone in the event of a pullback. Brent Crude Hourly Candle Chart Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents. Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 83.51% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
CAPITALCOM:OIL_BRENT
by Capitalcom
Rising Oil: OPEC Adjusts Demand and Global Conflicts The oil market has been caught between two opposing forces. OPEC has revised down its demand expectations, citing a slowdown in the Chinese economy, which has put downward pressure on prices. However, geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and the Middle East have added to uncertainty, pushing prices higher. Brent has surpassed $80 per barrel, influenced by conflicts in Kursk, Ukraine, and in the Middle East, where the confrontation between Israel and Iran has raised tensions. In addition, a possible reduction in U.S. oil production has been noted, adding further pressure to the market. Currently, the RSI is in its mid-range at 52.08%. The Check Point (POC) of $82 was reached yesterday. US production, energy and trade data, as well as Red Book and crude oil data, will be key in assessing the impact on West Texas and Brent prices this afternoon. Ion Jauregui - Analyst ActivTrades ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
ACTIVTRADES:BRENTLong
by ActivTrades
Brent Forecast 9/8/2024Hi All, Today is Friday, normally not expecting a big move from oil, however we do have some target prices ready and prepared for a move. Since the overall price action is bullish, we expect target prices 79.2 and 79.6 to be hit today or next week when it breaks above the resistance line. When the buy volume is not there, we can expect a retracement when it can break the orange support line to 78.1 and lower when there is strong volume. Have an enjoyable weekend!
BLACKBULL:BRENTLong
by SuperAbu
Crude Oil Rises: Middle East Tensions and Falling US InventoriesOil prices have risen for the third consecutive day, driven by rising tensions in the Middle East and a significant decline in U.S. crude inventories. Brent crude rose to $78.39 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate settled at $75.39. Concerns intensified after the assassination of militant leaders in the Middle East, generating speculation about possible retaliation that could disrupt oil supplies. In Libya, the declaration of force majeure at the Sharara oil field due to protests has added pressure to the market. In the U.S., crude inventories fell by 3.7 million barrels, well above expectations, indicating strong underlying demand. Analysts at ANZ and Citi suggest Brent could range between $80 and $85, driven by geopolitical and climate risks, and a cautious investor stance. On the Brent chart, the most traded zone is between $84.10 and $80.88. After a double indecision at the beginning of the week, a price rally was seen yesterday. Today, the market may show signs of a return to the mean. The RSI, still in the oversold zone at 39.50%, and the POC at $82 suggest possible moves toward the mean, with a high zone at $95 and a low zone at $71.47. Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
ACTIVTRADES:BRENTLong
by ActivTrades
The oil price is probably facing a very sharp fall very soon.Hi all, This chart for the oil price (Brent Spot) speaks for itself, so there is probably no need to write much more here. It is worth writing here that it looks very bearish for the oil price going forward now, and as this chart for Brent Spot looks here. Everything is connected, and the stock markets have fallen sharply on fears of a recession, and the price of oil will be hit hard if it turns out to be a recession. So, as always, it will be very exciting to follow the development going forward for both the stock exchanges worldwide, the oil price, etc.
VELOCITY:BRENTShort
by StockCharts365
2
Brent Crude Oil Prices Form Inverse H&S PatternTensions in the Middle East continue to escalate, and Brent crude oil prices appear to be forming an inverse head and shoulders pattern. For this bullish pattern to activate, the price needs to break above $81.69. If this level is breached, the pattern suggests a potential 4.69% gain, with prices possibly reaching $85.54. However, it's still early to determine the optimal placement for a stop-loss order, as the pattern may take some time to fully develop. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
THINKMARKETS:BRENT
by ThinkMarkets
BRENT - UniverseMetta - Analysis#BRENT - UniverseMetta - Analysis The price of B1 may begin to form a rebound from the border of the triangle, which may indicate the beginning of growth, globally to the update levels of the upper border, if we consider the level from which the price gave a rebound, we can reach 85.935. If we consider H4, we can wait for the formation of a 3-wave structure to continue the upward movement. To cancel, it is better to consider fixing it outside the border or breaking it, since the fall may continue. Target 81.76 - 85.935
FX:UKOILLong
by Trade-U-Metta
Weekly Market Wrap With Gary Thomson: 22 - 26 JulyWeekly Market Wrap With Gary Thomson: Nasdaq, EUR/USD, USD/CHF, Crude Oil, Alphabet Inc. Shares Get the latest scoop on the week's hottest headlines, all in one convenient video. Join Gary Thomson, the COO of FXOpen UK, as he breaks down the most significant news reports and shares his expert insights. - Nasdaq Composite: Worst Session since Late 2022 - Market Analysis: EUR/USD Trims Gains While USD/CHF Regains Strength - Brent Crude Oil Price is Declining amid De-escalation in the Middle East - Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) Shares Decline after Earnings Report Stay in the know and empower yourself with our short, yet power-packed video. Watch it now and stay updated with FXOpen. Don't miss out on this invaluable opportunity to sharpen your trading skills and make informed decisions. 🌐 FXOpen official website: www.fxopen.com CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing your money.
FXOPEN:XBRUSD
by FXOpen
1