Apple Bets on iPhone 16 to Catch Up in AI Race. What's at Stake?Tech heavyweight carries a valuation of $3.4 trillion, making it the world’s most expensive company (on most days, thanks to volatility). But the consumer giant may be running out of ideas — its latest product event “It’s Glowtime” was a spectacle of colors, flashy lights, great camera work and editing. But the crowd went … mild.
Apple (ticker: AAPL ) unveiled the latest model of its flagship product, the iPhone 16, at its product launch event “It’s Glowtime” on Monday.
This wonder of technology, which changed how the world communicates (and sends memes), is now in its most advanced form flexing some solid AI muscle. The iPhone 16 is a bet on artificial intelligence — the Cupertino, California-based company is putting its hopes on the buzzy AI trend in an effort to convince users to dump their old non-AI phone for the first Apple smartphone built for AI.
Chief Executive Tim Cook praised the new device, saying this latest model is designed “from the ground up” powered by Apple’s new AI software, Apple Intelligence . Users can get their hands on the iPhone 16 starting September 20 — just in time for the fourth quarter to show how big of a demand there is for this new device, starting at $799.
The product launch event, streamed live on YouTube to more than 2.5 million viewers, didn’t lift Apple shares one bit. In fact, the stock was moving sideways to the downside before it recouped the 1.9% intraday loss and closed hugging the flatline at $220.91 a share. It wasn't a great day for the broader stock market , to be fair.
So why the muted response from Wall Street and the investing crowds on Reddit’s messaging boards? There was merely anything new to surprise markets — most of the announcements were already old news, priced in and well baked in.
What matters now is how well the iPhone 16 sells to the masses. The three months to December are generally strong selling time spans for the iPhone as more people are willing to shell out on smartphones for Christmas. But that could very well be the initial marketing spike followed by fizzled out revenue growth. That’s where Apple’s future hinges on its ability to keep cutting edge and think different .
Backed by the power of AI, Wall Street will be looking for a boost to iPhone sales, which have been losing momentum in recent quarters. Now with the Apple Intelligence software jammed into the latest operating system, iOS 18, Apple is looking to compete for a market share in the burgeoning space for AI smartphones.
The tech giant is not too worried about getting left behind. Its iPhone flaunts a loyal customer base, which generates about half of all company revenue. For the most-recent quarter, iPhone sales pulled in $39.3 billion from total sales of $85.5 billion.
But in practice, Apple is already late to the party. Other mainstays in the upper echelon of tech have rolled out AI phones. Google launched its AI smartphone, Pixel 8, back in October. Samsung, Apple's international archrival running on Android, introduced the Samsung S24 in January, flexing powerful AI capabilities.
Perhaps the biggest news at yesterday’s event was Apple’s foray into healthcare. A new use case has been discovered for the AirPods: they’ll be taking on the role of hearing aids, which makes the $250 Pro model a cheap product in the market for hearing aids. Other product releases, other than the iPhone 16, include the Apple Watch Series 10 with an updated design, and the Apple Watch Ultra 2 in a new color (looks like the Ultra team had an ultra easy job this year.)
So, with that said, what makes you want to invest in Apple? Or maybe trade it? Is it the bright outlook in the AI smartphone race? Or the company’s search for innovation in healthcare? Share your thoughts below!
AAPL trade ideas
APPLE: Buy lower if this level breaks. Next target = 260.Apple is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 45.352, MACD = -0.130, ADX = 33.865) as it is consolidating around the 1D MA50. The trend is a bearish one, correcting under LH and until they break, it will remain bearish. Much like the Channel Down corrections of 2023 and 2024, failure to cross above the top of the bearish pattern, should extend the selling to the 1D MA100 again, even the 1D MA200 if it fails.
The 1D RSI of the prior tw fractals indicates that two main LH should be formed before the price recovers. This shows that we should take our time with AAPL and if the 1.5 Fib level breaks, buy on the 1D MA100 and the 1D MA200 for the long term. TP = 260.00 (the 2.5 Fibonacci level).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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Possible Double BottomWill Apple save the US economy? Will Iphone16 be larger than Iphone 6, 9, 12 and 13? Am I buying a brand new Iphone after years of owning my Iphone12? Yes I am.
I am also not the only one, I know many people who have been waiting for the 16 to come out and will finally be upgrading.
On the chart we have a bullish cross which happened recently and what appears to be a double bottom on the shorter time frame.
If Apples AI showcase today is impressive to investors it could bump up other "AI" companies like TSLA and NVDA.
BUY APPLEApple is an uptrend channel and bullish on the weekly timeframe.
The next target is to the upper of the channel at area 265-270.
Apple’s iPhone 16 Launch: Post-Event Pullback?Looking at the weekly chart (1W) of Apple (AAPL) with the vertical lines marking the dates of iPhone launch events, we can attempt to identify a more consistent pattern around these events.
Key Observations:
Pre-Launch Price Rally: In nearly all the iPhone launch events, we observe a notable pre-event rally. This suggests that investors tend to buy Apple stock in anticipation of the product reveal, leading to upward momentum in the weeks leading up to the launch. Magnitude of Rally: In many cases, the stock gains significant value leading up to the event, as investors and traders speculate on the success of the new product.
Post-Launch Behavior: Short-Term Pullbacks: A clear pattern emerges where, immediately after the event, Apple's stock often experiences a pullback or consolidation. This appears to be a classic "sell the news" reaction, where investors who had bought the stock in anticipation of the event sell to lock in profits. For example, following the iPhone 12 and iPhone 13 launches, we saw short-term pullbacks lasting a few weeks. Long-Term Trend Continuation: Despite the short-term corrections, the long-term trajectory of AAPL tends to remain upward. After most iPhone launches, even if there is a post-event pullback, the stock eventually resumes its upward trend. This long-term bullish trend suggests that Apple’s underlying business remains strong, supported by sustained iPhone sales and other product lines.
More Defined Patterns: Pre-Launch Rally: Across most launches (iPhone 6, 7, X, and 12 in particular), the stock rallies leading up to the event by 10-15% on average. This suggests a strong investor confidence buildup before the actual product reveal. Post-Event Decline: In many instances (notably the iPhone 6s, 7, and 12), there is a consistent 5-10% decline after the launch. This sell-off usually lasts a few weeks to a couple of months, after which the stock resumes its longer-term upward trajectory.
Current iPhone 16 Presentation (Today): Pre-Event Setup: Currently, AAPL has shown some weakness in the weeks leading up to the iPhone 16 presentation. The stock has pulled back slightly, breaking the pattern of a strong pre-launch rally seen in previous years. Technical Indicators: The MACD is showing some bearish momentum, which suggests that the stock might be due for a further pullback post-launch, consistent with the historical pattern of profit-taking after these events.
Potential Short-Term and Long-Term Strategy: Short-Term: Given the clear pattern of a post-event pullback, traders might anticipate a brief decline following today’s iPhone 16 presentation. This would align with the past pattern where Apple stock typically declines by 5-10% after the launch. Long-Term: Despite short-term volatility, Apple’s long-term uptrend has remained intact. Investors who are more focused on the long-term may consider any post-launch correction as a buying opportunity, as AAPL tends to resume its upward trend within a few weeks to months after these events.
Conclusion: The most consistent pattern around Apple’s iPhone launch events is a pre-launch rally followed by a post-launch pullback. This sell-the-news behavior often creates a short-term decline, but Apple’s long-term growth trajectory remains strong. For today’s iPhone 16 presentation, based on historical data, we may see a similar short-term correction, but long-term investors could view this as an opportunity to add to their positions.
APPL Repeating patterns Baseline 180 pullbackNot financial advice
But it's clear as day you can see that we an an upthrust
Followed by a secondary retest
Classic wyckoff distribution pattern
My target would be 180 at a minimum
Apple Inc & the iPhone 16 Launch: What Lies Ahead for the Giant?Apple Inc. ( NASDAQ:AAPL ) is set to host its highly anticipated iPhone 16 launch event on Monday, September 9, 2024. This event, widely considered Apple’s most important of the year, comes at a pivotal time for the tech giant, as it struggles to convince investors and consumers alike that its flagship product still has room for innovation and growth.
iPhone 16 Launch: What’s New?
The iPhone 16 lineup, including the iPhone 16, 16 Plus, 16 Pro, and 16 Pro Max, will be the focal point of the event. However, industry analysts, including Bloomberg, have indicated that the new iPhones will not feature significant design changes compared to their predecessors, the iPhone 15 series. The base models will see minor upgrades like faster processors, increased storage capacity, and the inclusion of the action button previously exclusive to the Pro models.
The Pro versions will boast slightly larger screens, slimmer bezels, improved processors, more advanced AI features, and enhanced camera capabilities. However, these iterative updates might struggle to capture the excitement that previous models once did, reflecting Apple’s current challenge in the fiercely competitive smartphone market.
Declining iPhone Sales and Revenue Concerns
Apple’s iPhone remains its most important revenue driver, yet the segment has shown signs of slowing growth. In the most recent quarter, iPhone sales revenue fell to $32.29 billion from $39.66 billion a year earlier, reflecting broader challenges in the consumer electronics market. Over the first half of 2024, iPhone sales dipped from $156 billion to $154 billion year-over-year, highlighting the difficulties Apple faces in reigniting demand.
The broader issue for Apple lies in its perceived stagnation; incremental upgrades in the iPhone 16 may not be enough to drive substantial sales growth. This problem is compounded by changing consumer habits, as people now tend to hold onto their iPhones for 3 to 4 years before upgrading, compared to shorter upgrade cycles in the past.
Apple’s other hardware segments, such as the iPad, face similar challenges. While iPad sales rose to $7.1 billion in the last quarter, the line’s growth prospects remain questionable due to the lack of distinguishing features that set it apart from larger iPhones or other tablets.
Expanding Services: Apple’s Growing Revenue Driver
While iPhone and hardware sales may be slowing, Apple’s services segment continues to show resilience, growing from $81.7 billion in Q2 2023 to over $85.7 billion in the latest quarter. This high-margin segment, encompassing Apple Pay, Arcade, Music, News, and the App Store, has become a critical revenue driver as the company navigates challenging hardware markets.
However, even with robust growth in services, the company’s overall valuation remains under scrutiny. Apple’s $3.4 trillion market cap, with a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 33.63 and a forward EV-to-sales ratio of 8.47, has drawn skepticism from prominent investors, including Warren Buffett, who has recently trimmed his stake in the company. As Apple’s core revenue sources face headwinds, the question of whether its valuation can be justified looms large.
Technical Analysis: Potential Downside Ahead?
From a technical perspective, Apple’s stock chart is flashing warning signs. Recently, the stock has formed a double-top pattern, a classic bearish signal, with a neckline around $195.80. Should this level break, it could trigger a deeper correction, aligning with broader concerns over Apple’s growth trajectory.
Key support levels to monitor include $218, where a trendline support intersects with significant historical price action, followed by $207, which aligns with previous breakout levels. A failure to hold these zones could see the stock retest the critical $196 support, near its 200-day moving average. Conversely, resistance looms near $233, a level that coincides with recent 1 Month High and where investors may look to lock in gains amid a potentially volatile period.
Competitive Pressures: Huawei’s Tri-Fold Phone Steals the Spotlight
Adding to Apple’s challenges, Huawei has captured attention with its new tri-fold smartphone, the Mate XT, which has already amassed 2.7 million pre-orders. This launch underscores the growing competition Apple faces, particularly in China, where it recently fell out of the top five smartphone vendors. As Huawei and other Chinese manufacturers push the envelope with innovative designs and features, Apple’s lack of a folding phone remains a glaring omission in its product lineup.
Conclusion: A Critical Moment for Apple
As Apple gears up for its iPhone 16 launch, the stakes couldn’t be higher. The company’s ability to excite consumers and investors with its new lineup will be closely scrutinized, especially given the stock’s recent technical weakness and ongoing fundamental challenges. While Apple’s robust services segment provides a buffer, the question of whether this alone can sustain its lofty valuation remains unanswered. For now, Apple’s near-term fortunes may hinge on how well the market receives the iPhone 16 and whether it can navigate an increasingly complex competitive landscape.
Weekly Analysis Mag 7The mag 7 is an important part of analyzing the S&P and Nasdaq due to the weight they pull. The mag 7 is threating to break a major uptrend and eventually the April lows like many others. It's critical for bulls to hold the line here or we're about to have a bloody September and October.
AAPL: Wave 3APPL will be in wave 3 this week. Expecting much selling throughout the majority of equities this week.
PT 201
Apple ShortApple short opportunity
price has reacted from a supply zone
seasonality down for this month as well as all indices
price is overvalued short and long term vs US bonds
Trade safe
AAPL ShortEarly signal on the monthly TF from a seller. If price doesn't pass pivot to the upside then we are in good shape. Monthly close under will confirm selling.
Pivot 222.10
$AAPL finished 19 weeks of rally from its 19 week modeNASDAQ:AAPL is already IN a weekly downtrend.
NASDAQ:AAPL is below the mode since the high
NASDAQ:AAPL peaked 7 weeks ago
NASDAQ:AAPL had a weekly range expansion down this week to trigger a sell signal
NASDAQ:AAPL had a RESZ rally into 50-75% resistance this week after RgExp down
Stop loss $226, downside $195
I also labeled Warren Buffett's sale of $100 billion worth of NASDAQ:AAPL , but he also still has a 30% position in NASDAQ:AAPL in his portfolio
The stop is close and the downside is meaningful
Granted, Apple has its new product release happening soon which will keep potential sellers from selling but it may make potential buyers hold off on buying
Time will tell
Tim
3:47PM EST 9/6/2024
$220.85 last -1.53
AAPL to $205Price at top channel
Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) at overbought level
TTM Squeeze is on
TTM Squeeze momentum is up
In at $226.50
Looking for a pullback to $205
AAPL: All Signs Point to Sell The AAPL chart is flashing sell signals, with price hovering near key red lines resistance. Sellers seem to be in control, and the setup suggests further downside potential. Will we see a break lower, or is a surprise bounce lurking?
Feel free to share your thoughts on this setup in the comments, and follow for more trade ideas!
*Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always trade responsibly!*
Apple strengthens its position in India with Bharti AirtelApple has partnered with India's second-largest telecom operator, giving the iPhone producer a much-needed boost in the content market. The company remains significantly behind giants such as Spotify and Walt Disney in this market.
The American tech corporation, aiming to increase global revenue from services, including apps, payment systems, and media, will offer 281 million Bharti Airtel customers free access to streaming music and video. In doing so, the company achieves two goals at once: diversification and sales growth.
Let's examine Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) stock chart for possible trades from a technical analysis point of view.
On the D1 timeframe, resistance has formed at 233.00 USD, with support at 217.50 USD. The asset is in an upward trend with the quotes above the support line. If the trend reverses, the target for the fall could be 202.80 USD.
If the upward trend continues after breaking through the resistance level at 233.00 USD, the short-term target could be 240.55 USD. In the medium term, the price may rise to 250.00 USD.
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APPLE Set To Fall! SELL!
My dear subscribers,
This is my opinion on the APPLE next move:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 228.86
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bearish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 219.98
My Stop Loss - 233.40
About Used Indicators:
On the subsequent day, trading above the pivot point is thought to indicate ongoing bullish sentiment, while trading below the pivot point indicates bearish sentiment.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
They do look really alike, though, don't they? Yes. I am posting the bubble template thing.
I both love and loath the bubble template. It really has been useful to me since I became aware of it (Sometime back around 2014 I'd guess) in helping me to understand the overall structural build and decline of a trend. When combined with trend ideas like Elliot wave and fib ratios etc - this overall model has proven very useful. And over enough time, most charts end like this.
Unfortunately, the model is somewhat lacking ... details. Like, it does not mention you're going to see a "Return to normal" phase 1,000 times before it happens.
I've traded this basic model 10s of thousands of times (Because you can use this same idea on intra day trends. Over all markets this is happening 100s of times a week. More if you're on scalping time frames) and the overall path is a little more jaggy. Same idea - just it's not as nice and clean as the template.
Also if you ever spot this and are ever right- you can be almost certain if you share your ideas you'll experience a lot of name calling during this period.
Into the "New Paradigm" if you've persistently posted about it you'll have stalker trolls. That's just how markets and internet interact.
Let's for a moment suspend disbelief (Or lean in your bias if you're a super bear) and do a thought experiment on what it would mean if this was in play.
I think the really critical aspect to take into consideration here is the "First sell off" bear trap section is a very small move relative to the actual crash. It's a huge move in real time but after the big crash has happened it will be demoted to a footnote in the story of the great bubble and crash.
We have a real world historical example of this. Around 1920 there was a series of panics in the stock market. At one point things were so bad they closed the stock market. This would be the worst market conditions experienced in that lifetime and this event would be dubbed the "Great Depression".
You can now read about this event by looking up terms such as "The forgotten depression" - you'll no longer find it by looking up the Great Depression. The "Less Great Depression" became a footnote in history. A totally wild event and recovery that almost no one knows of because of the shadow of the Roaring 20's and the Great Depression.
If you apply that same concept to modern markets, the implied forecast would be horrific. We'd be having the 2008 event as the mini bear. We're calling it "Great Financial Crisis" but, in our hypothetical scenarios, history would look at this as essentially a non-event relate to the bubble that would then form and pop.
It's this starting stage I find most compelling. The probably with the "Greed / delusion" etc stages is if you're looking for these you're going to see them when the market goes parabolic, but a lot of times there market might just be making breakouts. If you look for them, you'll find AAPL charts templated to this when AAPL was $10.
The stages of late trend also look a lot like the stages of mid trend development. But what's really interesting is how well the flat "Smart" section and then the huge shake out bear trap sections "Fit" here. And if we use these levels to draw our mean the typical crash path would now fully agree with the mean reversion levels.
In this bust model the bust always comes a little under the low of the bear trap section.
And this is always a slight overshoot of the mean (Despair stage).
It has to be said it's been true you could have incorrectly used this model to make the same forecast on AAPL for a long time. The model has a lot of limitations.
But we now have a lot of confluences and ratios that really do not appear very often.
Would make a lot of sense from a TA perspective.
Apple - Still Outperforming Everything!Apple ( NASDAQ:AAPL ) is stronger than 99% of stocks:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
Despite the recent stock market weakness, Apple is trading at new all time highs. This clearly indicates that buyers don't let this stock down but are rather buying every dip. Even though Apple is retesting a channel resistance, a breakout followed by a rally is definitely possible.
Levels to watch: $230, $280
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
Change Of Plan! Apple 20% Drop Coming Sooner Than ExpectedWhat changed? What is different now and why is a 20% crash so close?
We use the chart as our guide, it helps us know the market bias; bearish or bullish, it helps determine the tendency, dynamics and trend of a certain given asset, good, commodity or stock.
Technical analysis has been proven to work.
What is the major event, catalysts, that will be the cause of the major downturn that all the assets are pointing toward to? Nuclear war?
Is it something less damaging to the human heart and soul?
I don't know, but there will be panic.
➖ AAPL Technical Analysis @AlanSantana
The Apple Inc stock, AAPL, peaked 15-July 2024. Notice that the correction (bear-market) is already 50 days old.
Late August, on the 29, a lower high came in and this lower high is now fully confirmed with the action that is happening this week.
Bearish action is predominant.
The first stop will be below 200 and the second stop around 175.
Are you prepared?
Thank you for reading.
Namaste.
Apple Sell OpportunityApple Sell Setup Confirmed, failed swing on the intermediate Term High, the price action is clear, targeting the monthly imbalance for a leat 3RR.
Apple Sell OpportunityApple Sell Setup Confirmed, failed swing on the intermediate Term High, the price action is clear, targeting the monthly imbalance for a leat 3RR.
Apple chart September 2024Apple is showing a weaker RSI in the last move-up. The new iphone release and AI features makes investors expect a boost on sales, but maybe it will not happen at all. A drop between 10 and 20% could happen.
Same concerns for magnificent7 stocks.
