Amazon (AMZN) is Entering a High-Probability Reversal Zone!
1. Market Structure & Price Action (1H Chart)
* Trend: AMZN is currently in a short-term bearish trend after rejecting from the $207 supply zone.
* CHoCH (Change of Character): The recent CHoCH around ~$198 confirms bearish control.
* Price Range: Current price is consolidating in the $191–193 zone, a potential SMC Reversal Block.
* Support Zone: $189–190 (FVG + previous demand and lowest Bid/Ask zone).
* Resistance: $198.76 (prior CHoCH zone), then $202.5–207.5.
2. Indicators
* MACD: Histogram flipping bullish with MACD line above the signal line — signaling early momentum.
* Stoch RSI: Moving up from oversold, crossing bullish — momentum is building.
3. Smart Money Concepts (SMC) Highlights
* Reversal Zone (marked): Price has entered a key bullish mitigation zone where demand previously absorbed supply.
* Internal Trendline Break: If price breaks above $195, it could trigger a BOS (Break of Structure) and change direction.
* Liquidity Grab: Previous lows at ~$189 may have been swept to trap shorts.
4. Options Flow & GEX Insights
* GEX Levels:
* Highest Positive GEX/Call Resistance: $207.04
* Major GEX Walls: $202.5, $205
* Strong PUT Wall: $185 (Highest negative NETGEX / Support)
* IV & Positioning:
* IVR: 56.6
* IVx Avg: 46
* Put%: 2.1% — 🟢 Very low put hedging pressure, bullish
* GEX Color: 🔴🔴🔴 (Bearish zone but near bottom range)
5. Trade Scenarios
🟢 Bullish Setup
* Entry: $192.5–193 (retest of reversal zone)
* Target 1: $198.76 (gap fill + CHoCH)
* Target 2: $202.5–205 (mid gamma wall)
* Stop Loss: Below $189
🔴 Bearish Setup
* Entry: If rejection below $195 with weak volume
* Target 1: $189.3
* Target 2: $185 (GEX PUT support)
* Stop Loss: Close above $198.76
6. Sentiment & Bias
* Bias: Cautiously Bullish
* Price is near exhaustion zone with momentum starting to flip.
* Watch closely for confirmation above $195 for long setups.
* Failure to hold $189 may break structure downward.
Conclusion
AMZN is sitting in a key inflection zone where Smart Money may step in. Momentum and indicators are turning up, but macro resistance at $198–202 must be cleared. Use tight risk management and let confirmation guide your trade.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk accordingly.
