Will The Federal Reserve Or Earnings Slow Down Amazon Next Week?Our quick look tonight is at Amazon.com stock. 17 January brought us a bearish signal at the closing price of 151.71. Of the 242 studied similar occasions, the stock successfully reverses downward 95% of the time over the next 10 and 25 trading days. For this instance to be successful, the stock will need to move below 151.71. So far the stock has basically ignored the signal and powered higher. Another thing I have noticed during my research is what I call a signal delay zone. This is when the signal fails to take hold right away, but the stock eventually abides by the signal. Today is currently 6 days post-signal and only have 4 days left to make the 10 day study a success.
The largest delay from a percentage standpoint has been a 2.097% move upward from the signal, before a success was still achieved within 10 days from the signal. The latest a 10 day signal saw the highest delay price and still was successful was eight days after the signal. We are currently 4% above the signal price which does not bode well for a drop over the next four days. Day 10 is January 31st, Federal Reserve decision day. Also after the close on February 1st is the annual earnings call.
There are three likely outcomes, AMZN continues to move up without looking back, the day 10 study fails and the day 25 is successful, or both day 10 and 25 studies become successes. A success will be logged if we reach and cross below the dashed yellow line. I have placed the 10 day success box on the chart as a yellow square. This box is the target bottom for 50% of all successful signals. The other larger green box is the 50% target box for the 25 day study. This provides most of February for AMZN to come down and remain successful in the study.
Applying my modified wave theory to the AMZN chart. My overall outlook is:
We are likely in the final fifth wave of the fifth wave of wave C in wave B. This basically means the stock and market are about to start more prolonged downward movement. This is bearish through the end of 2024. Not sure if we the debt bubble bursts, rate cuts are taken off the table "for now", shipping disruptions in the Red Sea come up during earnings calls or the Fed press conference, or something else causes the foreseen market disruption.
AMZN trade ideas
AMZN solid earnings high volume for 10 months Cup and HandleAMZN has risen lately above the lip of the cup of the pattern on this 4H chart. The pattern
suggests $ 50 USD upside or 35% beyond present price. The chart shows the buying coming
in once price reached a rounded bottom an began an uptrend. Earnings beats have been
significant especially compared with the miss a year ago. AMZN is like the massive river with
branches feeding the volume of the river's depth and breadth downstream. Its dominance
and resilience is impeccable like others in the titans of tech. Price is now in the ascending
bullish continuation portion of the handle. I see this as a setup for a long swing stock trade
as AMZN heads into the next earnings. Another long play is call options in five weeks at
$ 156 or six months expiration at $176 strike which is the head and shoulders pattern of 2021.
Bullish Amazon Continuation Indicators Price has crossed 200 sma - bullish
50 sma crossed 100 sma - Bullish
Rsi - bullish
Macd shows - bullish
CCI, OBV, are moving in line with price - bullish
ROC, CMF are divergent from price but still positive and trending upwards - bullish / monitor closely - The divergence in ROC and CMF from the positive progression in other indicators could indicate a potential weakening in the strength of the current bullish trend.
Chaikin Osc moving in line with price. - bullish
Stochastic Osc showing overbought - - bearish
Trading right below the all the high volume price
DMI, +DI of 28 and ADX of 25, - Di of 15 shows a strong trend - bullish
ADL, in line with price - bullish
PVT, in line with price - bullish
Because I think this stock will continue to go up - BEARISH
Because I took the time to chart this stock - Bearish
AMZN H1: DOWNTREND TARGET HAS BEEN OBSERVED NEAR 147.65 - 144.06AMZN H1: DOWNTREND TARGET HAS BEEN OBSERVED NEAR 147.65 - 144.06
Downtrend targets are observed near 147.65 - 144.0. These are the best support that can be achieved in these coming days.
Note: For more updates and information about different pairs of the market keep following me.
Amazon - Massive Resistance AheadHello Traders, welcome to today's analysis of Amazon.
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Explanation of my video analysis:
With the quite obvious and expected channel breakout in 2016, we saw a rally of more than 500% towards the upside on Amazon. This pump was followed by a retracement back to a previous support level before we saw another bullish reversal. If Amazon breaks back above the structure mentioned in the analysis, market behaviour is bullish and I will be looking for longs.
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I will only take a trade if all the rules of my strategy are satisfied.
Let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions.
Keep your long term vision.
The fifth wave with expansion! Corrective patternDear FRIEND,
I hope you're doing well and that the new year has started on a good note for you. I wish you success in your business endeavors and a happy new year with your loved ones.
As someone interested in the Elliott Wave principle, I find it to be a valuable tool for market analysis. I have developed my approach by combining this principle with my personal experience and by considering various scenarios that are likely to occur in the market.
I am sharing my analysis with you. However, please note that I am not providing any buy or sell signals. My goal is to share my unbiased analysis with you so that you can use it as a guide to make informed decisions.
In the attachment, I have included my previous analysis of the same market so that you can compare and see the. All the details of my analysis are clearly labeled, making it easy for you to understand (although having a basic familiarity with the Elliott Wave Principle theory will help you understand the analytical idea more easily).
I have been studying the Elliott Wave principle for almost three years now. With time, my understanding of this knowledge and experience has increased. What I have achieved so far is a legacy of a genius named Ralph Nelson Elliott, and I am truly satisfied with my progress. May his soul rest in peace and his memory be cherished.
Thank you for your support so far. I am grateful and will always remember your kindness. Please feel free to share your thoughts and feedback with me.
I hope my analysis will be useful to you in your business journey, and I wish you all the best.
Sincerely,
(Mr. Nobody)
AMZN UpdateWe have almost hit the 1.618 extension @ $158.94 which is a very common end point for this type of move. This last high that we made has been on negative divergence and implies we should be headed lower soon. Structure also says we have topped or will soon. Rather we are topping in our primary B wave or hitting a wave 1 top, the next big move points down. If we are still in fact in wave IV, our next drop down should be powerful as it will be primary wave C. MACD supports this count, but as you can see by the ALT, this could be just the beginning of our larger wave V. The structure of our next move will hopefully clear up the picture of the larger count. The market as a whole is in a very precarious position and it would be wise for traders to be skeptical, and use stops to protect their assets. I have said it many times recently, we are on the verge of topping in the US indices and the type of price action that is to come will be some of the hardest charts to trade you will ever see in our lifetimes. This is no longer your fathers or even grandfathers stock market, but your fathers fathers fathers market of the great depression. The indices SS II was very deep and quick. That means the SS IV coming up will be "shallow" and long. I put shallow in quotations because I still expect a 40-50% decline from where prices are now before it comes to an end. The next question one reading this should ask, How will that affect Amazon?
Friendly Reminder: Beginning March 1st (~7 weeks), I will be dramatically changing my posting schedule here on trading view.
April 28th Amazon takes a nosediveThis is beyond exaggeration of what will actually happen and it's meant to be funny. I honestly think it's hilarious. I've known for a couple years now that Amazon has been spending way more than it's making. Promoting and talking to investors on stock splits. Closing Book stores and so many problems with their new automated store. Amazon's technology and service centers is a joke and all the customer support agents work from remote locations. Raising their wages was just a publicity stunt to try to manipulate shareholders to buy more. Desperate and failing. On top of all this they're building a new headquarters that cost 2.6 billion dollars to flash and market a fancy building like nothing is wrong with the company. Ha what a scam
I was wrong... Market trends have been extended by a factor of 4The meaning behind factor of 4.
Market flow has slowed down significantly after the long bullish cycle.
The highlighted purple areas was during a struggling time in the markets.
The market performance currently is struggling massively to hold
as manipulation to gather investor attention after the stock split failed.
Just because a stock split and the price looks much cheaper it doesn't
change the fact that this market is struggling. The inflow in this market
is barely enough to cover the sellers in the market. The big seller is
Jeff Bezos and if Amazon is buying back shares to maintain market structure
with investors exiting on a quarterly timeline that is the factor of 4 structure.
The market is moving 4 x slower with less volatility holding an overbought
market. Amazon is using profits to keep its value and growth expectations
is bearish. In time this realization will start to take shape and i predict a
market price of 9.09 within 7 years. Manipulation is attracting investors
to buy the market as Bezos and other wealthy investors are selling out
over a slower timeline. It is a classic bait and trap market. I sold the top before the
stock split even happened. I saw the signs early enough to make sound judgement.
Be careful with you future retirement and savings accounts. This market
is manipulated with fraud and traded within the laws set by the SEC. That should
say something. SEC approved 11 bitcoin ETF's after Bitcoin already had
its mega billion percent bull market. Bitcoin value will drop significantly
and could soon be worth as little as 1000 to 4000 dollars. There is a lot of fraud
manipulation going on in every market so these wealthy people can sell out on
the complacent traders investing in worthless investments.
This Could be the VERY TOP for AmazonI'm getting feelings around the things are about to hit the fan and Amazon might have topped longterm. RSI hit a major resistance, bear divergence, largest FED fund sale ever yesterday, things are just lining up for me, this will get NUTTY if true. Hard to fade this trend of course but a lot of things are lining up for me.
AMAZON Swing Long! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
AMAZON was retesting a
Horizontal support level
Of 143.5$ while trading
In an uptrend and now we
Are already seeing a
Bullish rebound so I think
That we will see a
Further move up
Buy!
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