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Tesla (TSLA) Long-Term Analysis: Retesting Key SupportHello traders! Let’s dive into a long-term analysis of Tesla (TSLA) on the monthly chart to understand where the stock might be headed next. I’ll walk you through my thought process, focusing on a comparison between the recent correction and a similar setup in 2020, while also analyzing the current correction’s alignment with the triangle formation from the 2021–2024 consolidation. My goal is to help you see the context of this setup and make an informed decision if you’re considering a trade. Step 1: Understanding the Big Picture and Historical Context Tesla has been in a strong uptrend since 2013, as evidenced by the ascending channel (highlighted in blue). This channel has guided the stock’s long-term trajectory, with the lower trendline providing support during pullbacks and the upper trendline acting as resistance during peaks. Within this uptrend, Tesla has experienced significant breakouts followed by corrections, and I’ve identified a compelling similarity between the current price action and a setup from 2020, alongside a key technical level from the recent consolidation. Step 2: Comparing the Recent Correction to 2020 In 2020, Tesla consolidated in a range between $12 and $24 (labeled "Consolidation 1" on the chart). It then broke out, rallying to a high of $64.60—a gain of about 169% from the upper end of the consolidation range. Following this breakout, Tesla experienced a sharp pullback, dropping to $23.37, which represents a 63.8% correction from the $64.60 high. After finding support at this level, Tesla resumed its upward trajectory, soaring to $166.71—a 613% increase from the pullback low. Now, let’s look at the current situation: Tesla broke out of "Consolidation 2" (around 2021–2024), rallying from $212.11 to a high of $488.54—a 130% increase. It has since corrected by 51%, dropping to the current price of $239.43. This 51% pullback is slightly less severe than the 63.8% correction in 2020, but the structure is similar: both followed significant breakouts from consolidation zones. Step 3: Current Price Action and the Triangle Retest Tesla is currently trading at $239.43, down 55% from its recent high of $488.54. If the correction deepens to around 60%, it would bring the price to approximately $195.42 (calculated as $488.54 × (1 - 0.60) = $195.42), which aligns perfectly with the upper trendline of the triangle formation from "Consolidation 2" and the "Retest support?" zone around $170–$200. This confluence suggests that the current correction could be setting the stage for a significant bounce, just as the 2020 correction did. If this $170–$200 level fails to hold, I’m watching for a deeper pullback to the "Retest support" zone around $138–$150, which aligns with the lower trendline of the ascending channel and has acted as support during previous pullbacks (e.g., in 2023). Step 4: My Prediction and Trade Idea Here’s where I put myself in your shoes: if I were trading Tesla, I’d be watching for a retest of the $170–$200 support zone as a potential buying opportunity, drawing from both the 2020 playbook and the current technical setup. Why? In 2020, Tesla found support at $23.37 after a 63.8% correction, which set the stage for a 613% rally to $166.71. Similarly, a 60% correction now would bring Tesla to the upper trendline of the Consolidation 2 triangle at $170–$200, a level that could act as a springboard for the next leg up. If Tesla holds this support, I expect a move back toward the $300–$339 range, where it faced resistance before the recent drop. A break above $339 could signal a continuation toward $488.54, retesting the recent high. Profit Targets and Stop Loss Entry: Consider buying around $170–$200 if the price retests this support and shows signs of reversal (e.g., a bullish candlestick pattern or increased volume). Profit Target 1: $300 (a conservative target based on recent resistance). Profit Target 2: $339 (a more aggressive target at the prior resistance zone). Stop Loss: Place a stop below $160 to protect against a breakdown of the $170–$200 support zone. This gives the trade a risk-reward ratio of up to 13:1 for the first target. Risks to Consider If Tesla fails to hold the $170–$200 support, we could see a deeper correction toward $138–$150, and potentially even $64–$90, another historical support level. Additionally, keep an eye on broader market conditions, as Tesla is sensitive to macroeconomic factors like interest rates and consumer sentiment in the EV sector. While the 2020 setup and the triangle retest provide a historical and technical parallel, the current 55% drop suggests heightened volatility, so be prepared for potential whipsaws around these key levels. Conclusion Tesla’s recent 55% correction from $488.54 to $239.43 echoes the 63.8% pullback in 2020 after the breakout from "Consolidation 1." If the correction deepens to 60%, it would retest the upper trendline of the Consolidation 2 triangle at $170–$200, suggesting a potential opportunity for a high-probability trade with clear profit targets and a defined stop loss. This setup could mirror the 2020 recovery, where Tesla rallied 613% after finding support. What do you think of this setup? Let me know in the comments—I’d love to hear your thoughts!
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by tex071173952
TSLA Breakdown Looks Weak! Bearish Momentum Builds Under Key ZonTSLA just broke down from a key structure with rejection under $243 and failed to reclaim it. Price is now stuck in a bearish SMC range and sitting inside a demand zone that’s showing signs of weakening. Here’s how it’s setting up: 📉 Market Structure & SMC Price is clearly trending inside a downward channel with consecutive break-of-structure (BOS) moves. The most recent bearish BOS confirms continuation, and there has been no clean change-of-character (CHoCH) to suggest bulls are regaining control. Supply remains untouched above $243, while price has now tested the $214–$221 zone multiple times. 📊 Indicators – MACD & Stoch RSI MACD histogram is fading and showing no momentum crossover. Stochastic RSI is deeply oversold but not turning up yet — this could signal either a pause or a weak bounce before continuation down. 📉 TrendInfo Summary (1H) The TrendInfo panel is heavily tilted bearish: Momentum (MACD, RSI, DMI) is all red Volume remains average but favoring red candles Fear & Greed sentiment reads at Fear (-14.42) Final recommendation: Sell (90%) This confluence supports the bearish thesis unless bulls step in aggressively at $214. 🧠 Options GEX Insight On the options side, we’re seeing a major wall of negative gamma around the $215–$220 zone — and the highest negative NETGEX / put support sits at $214.25, right where price is hovering. If this level breaks, gamma flows could accelerate downside volatility toward $200–$210, with no real put wall protection below until $190. On the flip side, the upside is heavily capped at $237.5 with HVL at that level. The nearest significant resistance lies at $260–$262, aligning with major call walls and the 62% GEX call resistance zone. IVR is extremely elevated at 137.8, with IVx at 140.2, showing strong option demand and volatility pricing. However, most of the flow is put-heavy (1.6%), suggesting institutions are not betting on a recovery just yet. 🎯 Trade Thoughts & Scenarios If price bounces here, we may see a short-term move to $230–$237.5 (gap fill or HVL reversion). However, unless TSLA reclaims $243, the broader structure remains bearish and rallies are likely to be sold. If $214 breaks, that opens downside to $210 and even $200 fast — especially with this kind of GEX structure. Swing traders can consider shorting failed bounces with tight risk above $230. Intraday scalpers can hunt rejections at $225–$230 zone. Final Thoughts: TrendInfo, order flow, and SMC structure are all leaning bearish. TSLA needs a strong shift in sentiment or macro support (like QQQ/SPY bottoming) to reverse this trend. Until then, bears are in control. This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and trade responsibly.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by BullBearInsights
Tesla Shares Tumble 7%+ Following Cybertruck Quality ComplaintsTesla Inc. (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:TSLA ) faced another sharp sell-off on Thursday 10th. The stock dropped 7.27% to close at $252.40, down $19.80 for the day. However, volume was high, reaching 399.04 million shares. The fall followed reports of build quality issues in Tesla’s Cybertruck. Owners posted complaints on the Cybertruck Owners Club forum. Several noted that the vehicle’s metal panels had detached. Additionally, videos showing Cybertruck damage in cold weather gained attention on social media site X. These reports raised concerns over production quality. Tesla had been recovering before the recent plunge. However, concerns about product reliability appear to have paused the rebound. Technical Analysis The 3-day chart shows Tesla in a strong downtrend. The stock broke below $290, triggering a drop to around $220 before bouncing back to $252. Price recently respected a key support near $190m, which may act as a floor for future declines. High volume near support signals buyer interest. If Tesla breaks above $290, it could retest $300. That zone acts as resistance and aligns with the 50- and 100-day moving averages at $252 and $232, respectively. The longer-term target is near $488, but the price must clear $290 first. A failure to hold support near $220 could send the stock back toward $180. The RSI is at 42.77, slightly above oversold. Momentum is weak but may shift if price builds support above $250. Tesla’s next move depends on how it manages both technical resistance and consumer concerns.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by DEXWireNews
[TSLA] Bear Market to $15: Musk’s Empire at Risk?Tesla’s market cap now surpasses the combined market cap of all major automobile producers. Elon Musk is undeniably a genius, yet this staggering valuation owes much to a robust bull market and post-COVID hype. If Tesla were valued using the same earnings and revenue multiples as the average automaker, its stock price would hover between $15 and $20 per share. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Tesla’s chart is one of the most striking I’ve ever seen. It reflects a powerful bull market that has completed an Elliott Wave five-wave structure, signaling that a bear market is likely next. Wave 4 formed a running triangle—a pattern typical in strong trends—and was followed by a short Wave 5, exactly as expected. Running triangles paired with a brief Wave 5 often indicate distribution. Indeed, Tesla’s chart reveals a beautiful four-year distribution phase (2021–2025). During this period, the stock struggled to climb higher due to persistent selling pressure. Strong hands have now offloaded their shares to weaker hands, setting the stage for a bear market. A triple divergence on the monthly RSI further confirms extreme overbought conditions and reinforces the case for selling. There’s no significant support until the $15–$20 range. If my prediction of a 2008-style crash in the S&P 500 (see related ideas) holds true, Tesla could bottom out around $15—a level that, intriguingly, aligns with its COVID-era low. "Bull market geniuses turn into bear market fools." Elon Musk net worth derives value mostly from Tesla and SpaceX as other companies are illiquid and very speculative. Current Musk's Tesla stake is worth around $100 billion if the price falls down to $15 it would be worth $6 billion, all other things being equal that alone would put a significant dent in his net worth. Musk is widely recognized as someone who leverages his Tesla shares and SpaceX to fund other ventures and lifestyle. It is not clear at what price level his margin calls are and what arrangements he has with banks but if crash of this magnitude happens all his Tesla shares could be wiped out with possible full blown bankruptcy. I wish him well and hope he does well, but this scenario is not unlikely and interesting to ponder.
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by berightandsittight
TSLA still bearish like I said. Why you should sue the board.This chart uses an unpublished modified turtle trader indicator / strategy combined with the unpublished TVMV framework using MFT candle sticks (published as separate indicator) and Bollinger bands. The max monthly position size is determined by seasonal probabilities, while the individual trade position sizes are determined by the turtle style volatility sizing based off the former's capital. Nothing has changed about TSLA. It has a work from home CEO who is who disconnected from reality and accountability that the stock will not recover. No amount of government contracts can over come the damage this man has done to the brand. Sales and deliveries are down in every market and the car owners are afraid to drive their cars. This recent pump had no basis. It lacked both fundamental value and technical value. TSLA will break below 222 and may go as far as 109 by EOY if the board of directors does not fulfill their fiduciary obligations to share holder to remove Musk permanently . Shareholders should seriously consider filing a class action law suit against the board of directors in collaboration with NY .
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by livingdracula
Tesla Taps the Golden Zone – Is the Launch Sequence Engaged?Tesla (TSLA) has shown textbook precision by respecting the golden zone after a significant sweep of previous highs. Rather than violating the last HTF low—which would’ve hinted at deeper downside—price instead retraced cleanly into the OTE (Optimal Trade Entry) range and reacted with strong bullish intent. This move indicates a healthy retracement rather than weakness, suggesting a continuation to the upside. Confirmation of this potential bullish leg would be a sustained close above the 272–300 level, which aligns with previous buyside liquidity zones and Fibonacci confluence. Key Observations: - Golden Zone respected: Price bounced cleanly between the 62–79% fib levels. - HTF low protected: No violation of higher timeframe bullish structure. - Volume spike supports the reversal move. Targets: - Short-term: 300.61 - Mid-term: 416.67 - Long-term swing: 861.17 (over 255% potential gain) Conclusion: Tesla looks set for lift-off 🚀. The reaction at the golden zone and the preservation of structure give high confluence for a potential explosive move higher. Wait for confirmation via price continuation and structure integrity. As always — DYOR (Do Your Own Research).
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by INSIDER_INTEL
TSLA looking for a bounce in the buyer's garageOn the NASDAQ:TSLA 1W chart, the price is currently pulling back below the 78.6 Fibonacci retracement level after a significant move up, and the zone between 224 and 182 presents an attractive area for potential long entries. The Ichimoku cloud (10, 20, 40, 10) shows bearish momentum, but a change in market structure on the daily chart such as a break above a previous swing high would strengthen the bullish case. The Trend Strength Index (20, 10) is in overbought territory, signaling caution, but if the price fails to reverse soon, it could continue falling toward the 146 to 109 range, a historically strong support zone where price has rebounded multiple times. This area would become a key long term investment opportunity if reached. Disclaimer: This content is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not represent financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Trading involves risk, and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by SupertradeOfficial