TSLA VolanX Earnings Strategy: Short-Term Bearish Bias (TEST)🧠 VolanX Earnings Strategy: Short-Term Bearish Bias
🎯 Goal:
Capitalize on downside or neutral reaction to earnings with defined risk and IV crush protection.
🔻 Primary Trade: Bear Put Spread
Strategy: Buy Put at ATM, Sell Put at lower strike
Expiration: July 25, 2025
Structure:
Buy 330 Put
Sell 315 Put
Max Risk: Premium paid (e.g., $5–6 per spread)
Max Profit: ~$15 if TSLA closes ≤ 315
Breakeven: ~$325
📈 Why This Works:
Aligns with DSS projection ($317.74 30-day)
Short expiry captures earnings move + IV crush
Profits if stock stays below ~325 post-earnings
🟨 Alternative Trade: Neutral-to-Bearish Iron Condor
If expecting rangebound post-earnings:
Sell 340 Call / Buy 345 Call
Sell 315 Put / Buy 310 Put
Credit: ~$3.50–4.00
Max Risk: ~$1.50–2.00
Profit Zone: 315–340
Best if TSLA volatility collapses and price stays in a channel.
🧨 High-Risk, High-Reward: Put Ratio Backspread
Buy 2x 320 Puts
Sell 1x 330 Put
Cost: Small debit or credit
Profit: If TSLA tanks → big delta gain
Risk: Small near expiry if TSLA closes near 320–330
Use this only if expecting a big bearish surprise.
🔧 Risk Management:
Position size = max 1–2% of account
Avoid holding spreads past Jul 25 if IV collapses
Use alerts around 330 / 325 / 317.5 for exits
🧠 DSS-Backed Tagline:
"With DSS projecting a controlled pullback and flow confirming overhead hedging, we favor bearish verticals and vol crush plays going into earnings."
