BTC - Mind the GapVERY IMPORTANT: This is not a prediction in time. In fact, there's a 40-45% chance of one more high in BTC. But, what is pointed out here is the target, whether it turns around here completely or makes a new high.
You would be hard pressed to find a gap that hasn't filled since the inception of BTC futures. There's always a "This time is different" and I've heard every one of them since the inception of this contract.
Gaps are a place in time where the market became extremely imbalanced (assuming the market has adequate liquidity). The market is always looking to find balance, so even if the gap holds for hours or days, it commonly revisits that old price area. Traders like to say “all gaps fill,” but the timing can be erratic. If it takes too long, you might go broke before it closes.
It’s not a strategy by itself—context is everything. After the gap, I watch bar-by-bar follow-through. If momentum is strong, the gap might wait days or weeks to fill. If bars stall and reverse, the gap fill typically starts quickly. When the gap is left behind, it's only a matter of time.
As I said, it is not a strategy in and of itself, so you would be wise to overlay it with other market concepts and the narratives that affect the market you're trading.
One I left on the screen is the dashboard, which pulls over 100 signals from 14 indicators used in many trading systems. This metric sums to a bearish outlook (but it always will at the bottom of a downtrend too, so there is still no silver bullet).
The orange line is predicated on k-clustering, Fibonacci systems, price action patterns, trend rules.
The path is consistent with Elliott Wave Theory. There are other patterns that could develop, such as a prolonged B-wave (as a part of a larger 3-wave configuration rather than the 5 shown), a triangle. or some other pathing.
Timing is hard to predict because time is not a critical feature of price development. Prices and price derivatives are the critical features and from those we can derive levels and paths (patterns). So timing is hard because time is irrelevant to price progression.
...something you're probably not going to be taught anywhere.
