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BTC Futures Contract (Mar 2025)

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BTCUSDH2025 trade ideas

BTC Overlay scenariosFigured out some overlays for BTC, I was actually kinda bullish on it until today when it didn't rally with the market. Up or down, it needs a pause, Crypto has been moving in a stair step pattern, so it probably drifts sideways until the next Fed meeting. Bull and bear scenarios shown. I'm just playing around with overlays from previous formations to get an idea of what it's gonna do. Not sure if it goes up or down, but I think it's not gonna do much for a month. No positions.
CME:BTC1!
by hungry_hippo
Digital Assets Outlook 2023Digital assets have had a strong early 2023 Digital asset prices, led by Bitcoin, have had a strong 2023 so far. Bitcoin is up by over 70% this year and Ether is up by over 50%1. Together, these two assets still account for over 63% of the total market cap of the digital assets space. While the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is still raising interest rates, the market seems to expect that the recent bank failures (Silvergate Bank, Signature Bank, Silicon Valley Bank, Credit Suisse) will lead to central bank easing. Lower interest rates would benefit long-maturity assets, such as digital assets. Moreover, several traders have been caught off-guard and short-sellers expecting more downside in digital assets have had to liquidate positions leading to higher prices. We believe we could be on the cusp of the fourth major bull market in crypto, although the exact timing is uncertain. Our belief is that the next bull market will be enabled by advancements in speed and scalability of the blockchain networks, more intuitive user interfaces, and innovations in blockchain wallets, as well as developments in digital identity, which will pave the way for Web3 applications. The critical determinant, of course, will be the user applications that will take the market by storm and we will keep monitoring potential candidates on a continuous basis. Despite dismal price action last year, digital assets are supported by a healthy and vibrant software developer community. The number of monthly active developers actually rose last year by 5%2, which is significant, and confirms our view that developers remain actively engaged in their respective blockchain ecosystems. Layer 2 networks finally coming into their own, promising to solve the scalability issue The main impediment of current Bitcoin and Ethereum networks has been their inability to handle a large volume of transactions. It is estimated that, without a layer 2 solution, Bitcoin can only handle approximately 7-10 transactions per second while Ethereum can only handle approximately 15-30 transactions per second. While it is on Ethereum’s road map to be able to ultimately handle 50,000-100,000 transactions per second, this is not a reality at the moment. As a contrast, Visa is said to handle at least 1,700 transactions per second although there are some estimates that Visa could handle up to 24,000 transactions per second and Visa itself is claiming this number to be as high as 65,000 transactions per second3. One way to solve the scalability issue of blockchains is to use a layer 2 network, which is built on top of a layer 1 blockchain. Layer 2 networks move transactions off-chain, roll them up and bundle multiple transactions into a single transaction, which can then be secured on the layer 1 blockchain benefiting from underlying blockchain’s security and robustness. This bundling enables faster throughput, faster settlement, and lower prices. For Bitcoin, the most well-known layer 2 solution is the Lightning Network, while for Ethereum there are several options available, including optimistic rollups, zero-knowledge rollups (ZK rollups) and sidechains. It is also worth mentioning that the Ethereum network is expected to go through so called ‘sharding’ later this year, which is expected to split the network into separate ‘shards’ thereby increasing the capacity of the network and reducing the transaction (gas) fees in the process. Digital USD tokens emerging as a major use case Stablecoins, digital tokens issued on public blockchains and pegged to an underlying asset, such as a currency or a physical asset, were initially used in trading and interexchange settlement but have become increasingly popular in payments and remittances. Because stablecoins are global and accessible to anyone, they offer an attractive way to cheaply and securely transmit money around the world 24/7 and settle transactions (almost) instantaneously. The world’s largest stablecoin, Tether’s USDT, is particularly popular in Asia, while in the West Circle’s USDC is widely used. Stablecoins are designed to offer stability while an asset like Bitcoin is more volatile. To give an idea of the magnitude of transaction volumes, last year, Visa settled HKEX:12 trillion worth of payments, mainly related to consumer spending, while stablecoins settled HKEX:8 trillion worth of on-chain transactions, higher than the $2.2 trillion settled by Mastercard or HKEX:1 trillion settled by American Express4. This year, it is possible that the combined amount of stablecoin transactions exceeds the payments settled by Visa. These stablecoin transaction volumes, of course, are not related to consumer spending but rather to payments, trading and decentralised finance, and do not take into account trading volumes on centralised exchanges. Competition for instant payments heating up The market for instant settlement of payments seems to be in flux at the moment. Crypto regulation in both Europe and the US are focusing on stablecoins and are expected to set stringent reserve requirements for stablecoin issuers and also forbid interest being paid to stablecoin holders. We view transparency requirements into reserve assets of stablecoin issuers important but also believe that attention should be paid into issuers’ risk management, cybersecurity, and blockchain code testing quality. In the US, the Federal Reserve is planning to launch an instant payment system called FedNow in July 2023. The network will not be based on blockchain but will be able to settle payments in seconds and can support transactions between consumers, merchants, and banks. Some believe that the closure of Silvergate’s SEN network and Signature Bank’s SigNet network in mid-March 2023, both offering instant settlement service where clients were able to move assets between fiat currencies and crypto exchanges at any time, could have had something to do with the launch of FedNow. Around the world, central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) are also being actively developed. They offer a digital form of a government-issued currency that is not pegged to any physical commodity and these digital currencies will continue to be based on the fractional reserve banking system. In Europe, the European Commission adopted a legislative proposal in late October 2022 that mandates all banks to offer instant euro payments to any individual with a bank account in the eurozone. At the moment, the EU banking sector, on average, lags behind other major international markets in instant payments, although single-country solutions have been adopted and variations between countries are large. In some European countries, instant payments cover 70% of banks but, in others, only 1% of payments are settled instantly. The European banking sector has stated that they need up to two years to make banks instant-payment ready5. Europe has its own version of an instant settlement network. BCB Group, regulated in the UK and Switzerland, offers BLINC network that links crypto companies to the banking system and enables business accounts to trade in fiat and digital assets 24/7. The company already offers fiat-to-crypto rails in sterling, euros, Swiss francs, and yen in Europe and plans to add USD fiat-to-crypto rails by early Q2 2023. BCB’s goal is to plug the gaps left by the SEN network. Unlike SEN, BLINC is multicurrency-based and is not tied to any single credit institution. It was designed as a payment institution to provide on-ramps to banks in Europe, the UK and Switzerland. The company emphasises that its funds are always 1:1 backed and are unleveraged and un-rehyphothecated6. Sources 1 Source: Coingecko.com 2 Source: Electric Capital, 2022 Developer Report 3 Source: Visa Fact Sheet, 2022 4 Source: CoinMetrics 5 Source: Euromoney 6 Source: BCB Group, Coindesk
CME:BTC1!
by aneekaguptaWTE
Bitcoin 35000?Today I would like to share with you some thoughts on the situation in the cryptocurrency market, specifically regarding the price of Bitcoin. We have a couple of unclosed gaps at different price levels, including 9600 and 21000. However, the price of Bitcoin is likely headed towards 35000, as many people still do not believe in the growth and think it is all manipulation. It is important to understand that the price of Bitcoin can sometimes move unexpectedly and unpredictably. Therefore, even if most people do not believe in growth, it does not necessarily mean that the price will not rise. Therefore, I would advise not to give in to emotions too much and to conduct your strategy based on the analysis of fundamental and technical factors, as well as to closely monitor the development of events in the market. Thank you for your attention and have a good day!
CME:BTC1!
by CHOWTRADE
BTC Q2: Two Potential ScenariosBased on the high liquidity zones you've mentioned and the current Bitcoin price of 30k, here are two potential scenarios for Bitcoin's price movement over the next 90 days: Scenario 1: Consolidation at a Lower Price (around 20k) In this scenario, Bitcoin could face increased selling pressure, causing the price to drop. This could be triggered by a combination of factors such as negative regulatory news, macroeconomic uncertainty, or a general shift in market sentiment. As the price moves down, the liquidity zones of 24-26k and 19-21k may act as potential support levels. If the selling pressure continues and the 19-21k support level is broken, Bitcoin may further consolidate around the 20k price level. This scenario may also see periods of short-term price rallies, but with an overall downtrend dominating the 90-day period. Scenario 2: Consolidation Underneath 33k In this scenario, Bitcoin might experience a period of stabilization and consolidation, with a possible upward movement towards the 32-36k liquidity zone. This could be fueled by positive news, increased institutional adoption, or favorable macroeconomic factors. However, due to the high liquidity in the 32-36k zone, strong resistance might prevent Bitcoin from breaking above 33k. In this case, Bitcoin could oscillate within the 30k to 33k price range for an extended period, establishing a new consolidation zone underneath 33k. Please note that these scenarios are speculative and should not be considered financial advice. Cryptocurrency markets are notoriously volatile and can be influenced by various factors that are difficult to predict. Always do your research and consult a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME:BTC1!Long
by I2COOL4SKOOL
CME - Showing Early Signs of WeaknessThis move has played out picture perfect. Please check out "BTC - Next Week Expectations" to see the prediction vs reality. Upon open of CME we created a gap that is currently around the low $28k region. If you have been watching CME you knows these gaps like to be filled. We are also finding resistance at overbought conditions on our 4H RSI (red circle). In our previous post we pointed out how we would most likely get a short squeeze and break our last micro high of $29.2k so whales could soak up all the liquidity from such a squeeze. So far we did break above that high and have seen the bullish momentum of price action start to stall in this zone (most likely longs getting trapped/ new shorts being filled). Price could remain bullish up until Wednesday and maybe even test close to the $30k region. Please be warned to use extreme caution with our opening price action this week. Looking for shorts in this range look more profitable than longs due to the overbought nature of the 3D and lower timeframes.
CME:BTC1!
by VIAQUANT
Bitcoin stuck for now, but should hold support on dipsDisclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
CME:BTC1!Long
by The_STA
2
BTC CME GAP at 20K?A CME gap refers to the difference in price between the closing price of a financial instrument (such as Bitcoin) on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and its opening price when trading resumes after a weekend or holiday. Some traders and analysts pay close attention to CME gaps in Bitcoin, as they believe that these gaps may act as support or resistance levels in the market. However, it's important to note that not all CME gaps are filled, and that the market can move in unpredictable ways. That being said, CME gaps in Bitcoin have gained a lot of attention in recent years due to the cryptocurrency's volatile price movements. Traders and analysts often watch for potential gaps that may be filled in the future, and use this information as part of their trading strategies.
CME:BTC1!
by mwch786
3
BTC could go to 35k and fill the gapHi there! I want to share my opinion with you which is about bitcoin futures (code: btc1!). As you can see from the chart, btc fall to and got support from fibonacci 0.786 level (18k) since Jun 2022. Then the price raised up and go down from previous low and resistance level 25k, and after FTX collapse btc broke the previous low level and hit a new low since 2020. And we all know but since Jan this year everything changed, btc raised rapidly and broke through the bottom, after the price broke the wedge and by the fomo and short squeezed, though many banks bankrupted but the price continued go up and created a new high since Oct 2022. Currently btc is trading near the resistance level and I expect that the price can go down from it and go to support level to retest previous high from the head and shoulders pattern. And I think btc can grow from the support level and break local high and reach the gap area which is also fibonacci 0.382 resistance level of 35k. Based on these reasons, I set up 2 targets located at lower edge of the gap $34500 level and fibonacci 0.382 resistance level $35700. This is my opinion, and I really hope it will be useful for you. This is not financial advice, always do your own research. Please support this idea by click the boost and comment, thank you ;)
CME:BTC1!Long
by YongTung
23