BITCOIN - Fill The GapI think we'll fill the gap of 102,000 first, then if we get back to the mid-channel, we can expect growth, otherwise we'll go to the bottom of the channel.
BTCUSDM2025 trade ideas
Reg Optimism, Implicit Fed Support, & Insti Demand to Boost BTCBitcoin prices surged on President Trump’s inauguration day (Jan 20), reaching an all-time high of USD 109,000. However, since then, prices have stagnated. Recent tariff announcement has driven a sharp selloff.
Optimism about a crypto-friendly Trump administration continue to fuel bullish sentiment, but the lack of concrete regulatory guidance has limited near-term momentum.
MACRO FACTORS AT PLAY
BTC remains below key resistance levels, limiting upward momentum. However, it has outperformed equities in the current macroeconomic environment. While equities faced an AI-driven selloff last week, BTC showed resilience, rebounding quickly from its Jan 24 lows. Additionally, BTC has benefited from market uncertainty, like gold, which is also trading near an all-time high.
The recent FOMC meeting initially pressured BTC, as the Fed held rates steady and expressed inflation concerns. However, BTC rebounded 2.4% after Fed Chair Powell clarified that changes in inflation-related language were not intended as a strong signal.
Source: CME FedWatch
The Federal Reserve’s latest dot plot suggests only two rate cuts in 2025. Market expectations, per the CME FedWatch tool, align with this outlook. While a higher-rate environment limits tailwinds for BTC, bullish sentiment continues, driven by regulatory anticipation and increasing institutional and sovereign adoption.
BREAKING DOWN TRUMP’S EXECUTIVE ORDER
On Jan 23, President Trump issued an executive order titled "Strengthening American Leadership in Digital Financial Technology." The order emphasizes fostering digital asset growth while maintaining U.S. financial sovereignty, particularly through USD-backed stablecoins. It also protects citizens’ rights to use blockchain networks without government interference.
Key provisions include:
1. Creation of a National Economic Council working group on digital assets, chaired by David Sacks.
2. Review of existing regulations within 30–60 days, followed by a report to the President in 180 days.
3. Consideration of a national digital asset reserve while explicitly prohibiting government action on (Central Bank Digital Currency) CBDCs.
U.S. BITCOIN RESERVE: REALITY CHECK
While the executive order affirms the administration’s pro-crypto stance, it stops short of immediately establishing a national Bitcoin reserve. If approved, the reserve would take shape in at least six months, delaying any near-term impact.
The working group may begin by utilizing seized cryptocurrency rather than purchasing new BTC. The U.S. government currently holds 198,000 BTC (~USD 20B, as of Feb 1) and USD 400M in other crypto assets.
For context, U.S. strategic reserves include: (a) Gold: 8,133 tonnes (~USD 737B as of 31/Jan), (b) Crude oil: 395M barrels (~USD 28B, as of 24/Jan), and (c) Foreign currency reserves: ~USD 239B (Q3 2024).
The U.S. gold reserve accounts for 3.8% of the total above-ground gold stock, while its Bitcoin holdings currently represent just 1% of the total supply. To match the gold reserve proportion, U.S. Bitcoin holdings would need to increase by 554,000 BTC, valued at approximately USD 55 billion at current prices. Over time, a Bitcoin reserve could realistically expand by USD 50 billion to USD 70 billion.
Meanwhile, several U.S. states are advancing their own Bitcoin reserve proposals. 15 states are considering BTC-related fiscal policies, with:
• Oklahoma, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania proposing 10% public fund allocations
• Texas suggesting a donation/tax model
• Arizona and Utah advancing legislation beyond committee stages
REGULATORY CERTAINTY FOR BANKS
Fed Chair Powell recently confirmed that banks can engage with crypto provided they manage associated risks. While this imposes stricter compliance requirements, it provides much-needed clarity following the post-FTX banking shakeout that shuttered major crypto-focussed banks.
Fund Flows: Institutional Demand Remains Strong
BTC ETFs saw record one-day inflows of over USD 1B on Trump’s inauguration eve. Since then, daily inflows have averaged USD 257M, with only one outflow day (-USD 457M on Jan 27).
Cumulative BTC ETF inflows since Jan 20 now total USD 2.3B, pushing assets under management (AUM) to nearly USD 118B.
Source: Arkham Intelligence
Notably, ETF investors remain highly profitable at current prices. Arkham Intelligence data shows IBIT ETF holders sitting on a 45% gain, which may limit immediate selling but could lead to some profit-taking.
MicroStrategy remains a major BTC buyer. The company recently completed a USD 584M perpetual convertible offering to acquire more BTC, potentially fuelling short-term upside.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & TRADE SETUP
BTC’s recent pullbacks have ranged from 10.1% to 23.6% Fibonacci levels, like the 2018 bull cycle according to Glassnode .
Source: Glassnode
The drawdown since reaching ATH on 20/Jan represents a ~13% move which suggests the drawdown is larger than usual ones during this cycle.
Historically, this phase of the bull run experiences FOMO-driven price acceleration, though long-term holders’ profit-taking presents a headwind.
BTC fell below the 50-day MA over the weekend, this level has served as support recently. The 92k level is also significant as it has provided support several times during recent retracements. However, in case the selloff deepens, the next significant support may be as far as the 100-day MA at 85k.
HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP
BTC has outperformed equities amid macro uncertainty and is increasingly correlated with gold (30-day correlation: 0.67). Recent tariff announcement in the US has driven a sharp selloff.
Despite a less-than-ideal FOMC outcome, BTC retains several bullish drivers, supported by Regulatory optimism following Trump’s executive order, Fed Chair Powell’s statements on crypto banking, and Institutional & sovereign demand.
The recent selloff offers a tactical opportunity to build long positions during volatile drawdowns.
Investors can opt for the following hypothetical trade setup consisting of long position in CME Micro Bitcoin Futures expiring on 28/Feb (MBTG2025). Each contract of MBT provides exposure to 0.1 BTC and requires margin of USD 2,451 as of 31/Jan.
• Entry: 94,000
• Target: 100,585
• Stop Loss: 90,000
• Profit at Target: USD 659 ((100,585-94,000) x 0.1 BTC per contract)
• Loss at Stop: USD 400 ((90,000-94,000) x 0.1 BTC per contract)
• Reward-to-risk Ratio: 1.65x
CME Group lists a raft of products covering a range of asset classes more accessible while also enabling granular hedging for portfolio managers.
Portfolio managers can learn more on how to access these micro products by visiting CME Micro Products page on CME portal to discover micro-sized contracts to gain macro exposures.
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MARKET DATA
CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme .
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BTC CMEThe CME Bitcoin chart is showing gaps that suggest Bitcoin will first make an upward move and then head towards $88,000. Of course, this is just my personal opinion.
What do you think, friends?
MBT 310125My trading plan is to wait for price to reach the drawn lines or boxes to look for entry signals. The drawn lines or boxes are strong support/resistance zones, these are potential reversal areas when price approaches. If price breaks out instead of reversing, this is where to wait for a retest to look for entry signals. Good luck my friend!
Bitcoin Resistance Reckoning: Short play### **📊 Technical Analysis – Micro Bitcoin Futures (MBT1!) – 1H Chart**
🚀 **Current Price:** **$106,145**
📉 **Short Setup Active:** **Sell Limit at $107,500**
---
### **🔍 Key Observations & Market Structure**
1️⃣ **Resistance Cluster at $107,500 - $108,500**
- **Multiple previous rejections** from this zone suggest heavy sell-side pressure.
- **Liquidity sweep potential**: A brief spike above before a reversal is possible.
- **Volume Profile shows high supply here**, aligning with our short setup.
2️⃣ **Support Zones to Watch**
- **$106,000:** Psychological level, minor liquidity but vulnerable.
- **$104,000:** Stronger demand zone; volume profile suggests buyers here.
- **$102,500:** Key **high-volume node**, deeper support & likely take-profit zone.
3️⃣ **Momentum & Indicators**
- **RSI Bearish Divergence** → Momentum is weakening at resistance.
- **Bollinger Bands Overextended** → Upper band rejection confirms exhaustion.
- **Delta Volume** suggests sellers are stepping in **aggressively near $107K**.
4️⃣ **Breakdown Confirmation Level**
- **If $106,000 fails, we could see a quick flush to $104,000.**
- **Break below $104,000 = likely continuation to $102,500.**
---
### **📈 Trade Plan Update & Risk/Reward**
**🔻 SHORT TRADE PLAN:**
- **Entry:** $107,500 (Active Sell Limit)
- **Stop Loss:** **$108,500** (Above liquidity sweep)
- **Take Profit 1:** **$104,000** (Support test)
- **Take Profit 2:** **$102,500** (Major support, max reward)
- **Risk-to-Reward:** **3.3:1**
✅ **Best Play:** Hold short entries, let price confirm a move below $106,000 for continuation.
---
### **🔥 Final Verdict: Strong Short Bias 📉**
🔹 **Ideal rejection area for a short.**
🔹 **Bearish divergence + weak momentum confirm downside probability.**
🔹 **Break of $106,000 = Fast drop to $104K-$102.5K.**
🚨 **Plan is set—now let the trade execute!** 📊🔥
BTC update#BTC first of all i see a huge gap in this chart (CME) so this gap should be filled in this trend or in the bearish trend after the rising
in this scenario btc is making a clear pattern like a rising wedge so it needs a correction after ! that correction can fill this gap !
How to Trend the Trend for BeginnersHey Traders so today I starting a new series for beginners about how to trade trends using techincal analysis.
Enjoy!
Clifford
BTC - Long around 80k after resolution of BTC Futures Volume gapI closed by BTC position (which was infact call spreads on BITO) at 107k and haven't touched it. I don't like to short in general and bitcoin can be very tricky.
I am interested in BTC at around 80k after the resolution of the BTC Futures Volume Gap and the mitigation of short interest present at former all time highs etc.
If volatility has spiked aggressively I may look to enter into a credit put spread and use that to finance OTM calls at longer expirations, I will do that all on IBIT.
On a paper trade I setup a few days ago I have OTM 45 puts on the February 21 contract on IBIT. I didn't actually take the trade as I've been busy managing QQQ and NVDA positions, but it would have served the basis of a multi leg low risk synthetic call if I had.
The open papertrade on Optionstrat is linked below. It was planned but I didn't take it because I got distracted by other things like watching 50% of my unrealized profit on NVDA vaporize because of a stupid mistake I made when hedging.
optionstrat.com
BITCOIN; BTC Indecisive Moment What's Ahead Many annalists had started to say or speculate on the bitcoin price ,mostly regarding a short or mid term bearish case scenario in play
I kind of love the 2Weeks charts on bitcoin as well as other markets right now - for a more precise insight of basic market structure rules taking its toll and managed to
achieve new all time highs across many sectors not just crypto (SPX ;Gold and so on)
Under some sell of circumstances bitcoin may follow a bearish trend and reach lower levels
79k - could be a major support level = as a quick market shake off
70k - could be mostly represented by the next bear market lows
53K - this could happen under an economic crisis coupled with a black swan event
Greetings 🍀and the best of luck to you !
BTC1!Midrange and H4200EMA confluence seemingly providing the bounce thus far. Now closing back above Mid, having filled gap at yesterday's close at 101,495, which makes me think back up to fill 105,060 gap next, possibly before FOMC.
BTC LONGMy projection on the bitcoin. Steady uptrend and the demand zone is of good quality. Also a month known to print lows on Bitcoin
Bitcoin correction inevitableTime to Chart the King!
If you've checked my recent ideas, you'll find onefrom 11 December 2022 titled "Run it Back Turbo." Check it out!
Press the play button to see how I've pinpointed the perfect bottom!
Now, let's dive into why I've decided to close my trade:
Wave Count: I've marked the 5 waves we've seen so far.
Wave Comparison: Using the Date & Price Range tool, I've compared the size of wave 3 to wave 5. Wave 5 typically matches or exceeds wave 3, and you can see the King has done just that. How much more do you need to satisfy your greed?
ABC Correction: We're expecting an ABC correction where:
A Wave: Should hit the 0.382 Fibonacci level drawn from the bottom of the count to the current wave 5 peak.
B Wave: Logically, this would reach the 0.236 Fibonacci level.
C Wave: Expected to extend to the 0.618 Fibonacci level.
Fibonacci Retracement for Wave 5: If you draw a Fibonacci retracement just for the 5th wave, you'll see:
The A wave should touch the 0.618 level of this measurement.
The B wave goes to the 0.382
The C wave, as usual, should retrace fully to the 1.000 Fib level, where it began.
CME Gap: Check out the 1-day chart below to see there's still a CME gap to fill on the way down.
Monthly Close: We're nearing the first monthly close of Q1. Take a look at the RSI; there's a clear bearish divergence forming.
Liquidity Clusters: The liquidity clusters below look enticing and are prime for grabs, essential for further upward movements. Remember, this market thrives on the ping-pong effect with short stop hunts and liquidation hunts, followed by the same to the longs, rinse and repeat.
Here you see a freshly pulled LiqMap from The Kingfisher platform currently the only one I know of which can show you these clusters. As you can see we have a ton of liquidity to tap into before we can resume this bullrun!
Conclusion:
The King Needs to Reset!
No reason to be upset. Everyone needs a rest after such a run. We will resume our journey soon enough, reaching those higher targets sooner or later. See the bright side: we can sell now, load up at cheaper prices, and potentially make even bigger profits.
Follow me for updates to this idea and follow me on X for even more insights!
Bitcoin Futures
Another week concludes for the Bitcoin futures market without closing above the all-time high. The RSI is in overbought territory, showing a bearish divergence. It might be prudent to close the futures gap and look for a bullish divergence before expecting further upward movement. The price might revert to the high of the RSI for support, which was around the 49k area.
BTC1! Bitcoin possible crash scenario.The BTC1! chart strikes me as particularly interesting because, unlike other BTC charts, professionals use Bitcoin futures contracts here to speculate on BTC's volatility or manage risk in larger portfolios. The trading schedule runs from Monday (opening at 5:00 PM CT) to Friday (closing at 4:00 PM CT). When the Monday opening price differs from the Friday closing price, a gap is created, which is often filled, as historical data shows similar occurrences.
Currently, there is an unfilled gap between 80,000 and 78,000. While it's not guaranteed that this gap will close, it's worth keeping an eye on that zone. Interestingly, the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level also aligns with this area. Additionally, there's the 0.25 zone where we find an nPOC (naked Point of Control).
We could see a significant bounce of 20–40% from these levels. If BTC were to experience a 50% drop from the current point, it would bring us to around 54,000. Historically, it tends to have a substantial bounce whenever BTC has fallen more than 40%, making these levels worth monitoring closely.
BTC1!Haven't seen a single "never again below 100,000" xeet on the timeline...
Personally I think they got the liq they were looking for already this week.
Quick dip at today's open to fill gap at 103,415. Gap filled now. Higher.
2 IDEAS. BULLISH AND BEARISH.BASIS JANUARY (M) CANDLE CLOSE.Bearish Scenario in Red lines.
If BTCUSD January month candle closes below 99k. A bearish momentum is possible.To 49k Unless Feb month candle briefly goes below 99k( Institutional bulk buying will create a jump up to above 105k). Then the bullish move will be restored.
Bullish scenario in Green lines
If January Monthly candle closes at above 103k. or anywhere above 100k, We will be looking at a bullish rally to 155k -take profit. Then a retracement will happen.
king's ideas.
BTC IS GOING TO 120 K !here in #BTC chart we have a nice pattern
i think the market is trying to make a rising wedge with 5 waves
these 5 waves can be markets last rise before a big correction
there is a gap around 75K that should be filled and a demand under it that should be touched
Bitcoin teases a record high (but I'm not 'buying' it)While my bias for bitcoin futures to reach 125k remain in play, I'm a tad suspicious of its attempt to take out the previous record high with any conviction this week. I take a closer look at trading volumes and futures market positioning to explain why.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and TradingView
BTC CMEAfter touching the weekly BISI, the price dropped behind the stops in the shorts, the daily BIs became an inversion and gave support to the price without pushing it down.
If this is a Екгьз rally, we will see how the price will react within 4 hours, a selling pattern is formed, there is inefficiency, a block of refusal is possible, which can lower the price to 0.5 range
Will this move be to fill the weekly BISI again or will it continue to send orders up?
Now those who entered long have opened positions, I think the price will follow their stops
BTC MAJOR CORRECTION LOADING......KING'S IDEAS projected a rise to 111,000. As i post this correction idea, BTC TOPPED AT 109,000 So, for the highest targets o be reached. A correction to 63,000 then a wick upto 68,000 will be necessary. Then a downward to 65000 then 67000 then 68000. As from 68,000 we are looking at ATH 200K...TO 300K. king's ideas
BTC Watch it for everyoneWorking out the signals of last week. Advantages of OKX. Canonical analysis
Limit oder area 1 15MPlace a limit buy order a area 1 for a 1/2 risk/reward waiting to be fill, strong buyer at AOI
Sell at area 1 and buy at the 50% breakPrice enter pretty strong to the 50% and stop me out, i wait to play for re enter at the break of 50% and take a stop for the Second time.. this take me to a over thinking 🤔 mode.
