Highly bearishI might stay up tonight to watch for a short on this.
I had a script fire off a bearish momentum signal and it's coming into a bounce point at the POC while also at a fib region to complete a 5 wave impulse.
Will be watching for double top type price action to get short on this with a long term target around 1.28
GBPUSD1! trade ideas
B61! British Pound Futures. Parabolic Short TermLooking for an end to the parabola with either a break or extension to 133 area. A break would give a good short signal to downside with 250 pips downside.
BRITISH POUND FUTURES (MAR 2019), 1D, CMETrading Signal
Short Position (EP) : 1.2971
Stop Loss (SL) : 1.3039
Take Profit (TP) : 1.2835
Description
B6H2019 formed Turtle Soup Sell at 1d time frame. Trade setup with Sell Stop at 0.382 Level (1.2971) and place stop after 0.618 level (1.3039). Once the position was hit, place take profit before an agreement (1.2835)
Money Management
Money in portfolio : $280,000
Risk Management (1%) : $2,800
Position Sizing
$ 0.0001 = +-$ 6.25
Commission fee = -$2.47/contract
EP to SL = $0.0068 = -$425/STD-contract
Contract size to open = 7 standard contracts
EP to TP = $0.0136 = +$850
Expected Result
Commission Fee = -$34.58
Loss = -$2,975
Gain = +$5,950
Risk/Reward Ratio = 1.97
BRITISH POUND FUTURES (MAR 2019), 1D, CMETrading Signal
Short Position (EP) : 1.2862
Stop Loss (SL) : 1.2907
Take Profit (TP) : 1.2772
Description
B6H2019 formed Turtle Soup Sell at 1d time frame. Trade setup with Sell Stop at 0.382 Level (1.2862) and place stop after 0.618 level (1.2907). Once the position was hit, place take profit before an agreement (1.2772)
Money Management
Money in portfolio : $280,000
Risk Management (1%) : $2,800
Position Sizing
$ 0.0001 = +-$ 6.25
Commission fee = -$2.47/contract
EP to SL = $0.0045 = -$281.25/STD-contract
Contract size to open = 10 standard contracts
EP to TP = $0.009 = +$562.5
Expected Result
Commission Fee = -$49.4
Loss = -$2,812.5
Gain = +$5,625
Risk/Reward Ratio = 1.95
#FXinsights #TradingViewTOOLKIT 4 "Diamond" Hedge Strategy B61!four "diamond" patterns developing on the weekly charts
4 "DIAMOND" HEDGE STRATEGY and short B61!
EURGBP short
GBPCAD short
GBPCHF long
GBPUSD long
GBP futures ready for correctioncorrection will be three waves ABC might retrace 50% or more of the previous wave
Buy B61! @ 1.3231Buy B61! @ 1.3231
RSI14 crossed above 60.
This is not a very strong trend as it is only above MA50 and not above MA150 or MA200.
Also note that there was a signal back on the 13th of September, so this is re-tracing.
There are better trades to take (better probability), but this one is a contender with a tight stop.
GBP Future SEP 2018 (1d)Trading Signal
Long Position (EP) : 1.3196
Stop Loss (SL) : 1.3158
Take Profit (TP) : 1.3255, 1.3321
Description
E6 formed Double Repo Buy at 1d time frame. Trade setup with Buy Limit at 0.382 Level (1.3196) and place stop after 0.618 level (1.3158). Once the position was hit, place take profit before an agreement (1.3255) and 1.3321
Money Management
Money in portfolio : $133,000
Risk Management (1%) : $1,330
Position Sizing
$0.1 = +-$10 (Standard)
Commission fee = -$2.47/contract (Standard)
EP to SL = $0.0038 = -$237.5/contract (STD)
Contract size to open = 6 standard contracts
EP to TP#1 = $0.0059 = +$368.75 (STD)
EP to TP#2 = $0.0125 = +$781.25 (STD)
Expected Result
Commission Fee = -$29.64
Loss = -$1,425
Gain#1 = +$1,106.25
Gain#2 = +$2,343.75
Total Gain = +$3,450
Risk/Reward Ratio = 2.37
Pound Sterling Sell-off reaching multi-decade extreme.The Pound Sterling has been in free-fall since marking a top on April 17 at 1.4413.
Weak economic and inflation readings, coupled with a soaring US Dollar have caused funds to significantly reduce their Pound long position, with commercials cashing in their sizeable short bets - and it is this activity that has caught our attention.
www.screencast.com
On April 17th Commercial traders reported a record net short position of (63,524) contracts, scoring a Maximum Bearish 0% ranking on a 18 month relative basis.
During this 6 week selloff, we've seen this reduced by over a whopping 55,000 contracts.
In addition to ranking participant net position, we also look for extremes in their weekly activity, and 4 week activity. We can see in the above table that the 4wk change 18 month score has logged in 2 straight + 99% readings, signaling that on a relative basis, commercials have been unwinding their short position at an extreme pace.
Price reversals often begin with Extreme Commercial and Fund positions, and once price begins to reverse the preceding trend, it can cause a rapid unwind as the trend following algos are forced out into negative technicals, with the opposing side booking profits.
We went back and observed every instance where commercial 4wk change scored at 98% or better going back to 1988. We've seen this 38 times, and price distribution 20 days forward has been as follows:
Average Gain: 3.04 cents vs Average Loss: 2.5 cents for 6:5 odds in bulls favor - This is a significant improvement from baseline odds which are 1:1 over a 20day forward interval.
Extreme Move
Next we wanted to compare this recent drawdown to all 40day drawdowns going back to 1972. What we see is that the current decline of 11+ cents ranks in the 10th percentile of all 40 day drawdowns. Said another way, only 1 out 10 declines have exceeded this magnitude over a 40day interval. While this is not in itself a trigger to buy the pound, we will highlight that you have only 1 in 10 odds of this selloff continuing - not odds we are interested in taking. Rather, we are now stalking for any signs of price reversal.
Conclusion
The Pound has experienced an extreme selloff during the past 6 weeks as heavily long funds have been forced to unwind their bets into a waterfall decline. We see historically when Commercial traders are heavy buyers, that price outperforms by offering 6:5 odds in favor of bulls. We also see this current drawdown is historically at a extreme, with only 1 in 10 being more severe going back to 1972.
However, as price continues it's waterfall decline and a tightening/semi hawkish Fed on deck in 2 weeks, we do not recommend trying to catch this falling knife. Rather we are stalking here and want to see some sort of short term reversal of trend. We use a 4day adaptive channel for short term trend pivots, and will use a closing above this channel as our entry signal. As an alternative, you can also use a 2 day higher high / higher low, or a 3 day high to be printed.
www.screencast.com
We would hedge this long with a 5 cents put spread for cost of approx 1.35 cents for 65 days. Once price moves 2 cents in your favor sell a covered call 3 cents out of the money for approx .7 cents. This will reduce the cost of your hedge to .65, while leaving your upside at 4.35 for 6.7 to 1 Risk/Reward.
If prices reverse lower below 1.30, close your short put as a stop which will still leave your R/R at 3-1.
Alchymist
Do you know the odds of each bet you make in the futures market? You can by utilizing the power of big data analytics.
www.3ptcap.com
GBP Trend reversalThe Great British Pound is not so great anymore. Terrible numbers hammered price down and now it also broke some critical levels.
Now that 1.3730 is out of the way I’m looking for a pullback into these levels to get ready for trend contuniation (short) on different currency pairs.
I’ll link this chart to some setups we’re seeing now.
US Dollar strength hitting GBPUSDRecent USD strength is moving commodity currencies lower. Double top and break of the swing low could signal more losses for cable to the median line.
b6i deep correction to 1.32 then biggest last rallyb6i deep correction to 1.32 then biggest last rally
GBP_F GBPUSD. Checkpoint before ECBDraghi and ECB might be the catalyst right at the collision point in a few hours.
Cable crashed preparation ...With involved in Syria War ... I doubt if GBP could break the main trendline, prepare for GBP crashed ...
Will this 2nd failed Cable Rebound ? After the mighty dropped GBP tried to pull back and rebound to safest zone but failed and deeper crashed, will this second tryout succeed or will it become another failed pullback that can cause Cable fall deeper ???
June British Pound British Pound created a bear flag on H&S drop. Downside potential target is 1.3614 at S2. RSI still has some room for more downside. Outside chance of 1.36. As long as BP stays under the 20 day MA this should continue to drop.
