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XAUUSD1! trade ideas

GC UpdateNot sure if this is a melt up or not, bit strange that RSI and MFI are moving in opposite directions. I have a long term position set up, but I'm not planning on doing big options plays unless MFI hits the red line or if I expect the stock market to drop. I might play a little tomorrow for TSLA earnings, lol. (TSLA has dropped so much it's only 2.6% of QQQ, it won't be able to tank the market on its own.) I think the next big gold movement happens when the China electronics tariff is announced. No idea when that happens. The market is just a guessing game with Orange Man in charge. In any case, I have a EUROTLX:4K target for gold, don't really care if I have to wait a few months or a year or whatever. This seems like a safer bet than anything else.
COMEX:GC1!
by hungry_hippo
Gold 97350 trend finally caughtWe are happy we could get the trend of gold finally. As we had posted yesterday though gold moved higher to 99358 intraday lost its gain 2000 and finally closed below the resistance 98582 we had mentioned. Today we expect Gold close would be below 98073 and more possibility to get corrected to test the imbalance at 90910. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ yesterday we posted in Our analysis about gold was going wrong and wrong again and it is moving higher and higher. After careful study and applying *new TA concepts * we have come to a conclusion it would be 98582 which would be its climax resistance on close basis and would get corrected.
MCX:GOLD1!
by subravi
The Brightest Metal Right NowGold isn’t just shining, it’s on fire, burning through resistance levels as investors seek shelter from global chaos. Figure 1: Gold Prices Climbing to New Highs Gold surged past $3,000 per ounce this March, setting 16 record highs this year alone. While it took more than a decade for gold to gain 1,000 points previously, this time it took less than two years. Figure 2: Correction in the Equities and Cryptocurrencies In stark contrast, the S&P 500 has dropped 10% since its February peak, marking its first correction since 2023. Bitcoin has also plunged to $81,000, a 25% decline since U.S. President Donald Trump’s inauguration. The AI-driven momentum that propelled tech stocks and the broader equity market higher in 2024 appears to have faded. Figure 3: Historical Reactions to Crisis The correction in equities and crypto stands in sharp contrast to gold’s rally—an outcome that should come as no surprise given gold’s reputation as a safe-haven asset. Historically, financial crises and major market pullbacks have consistently triggered capital flows into gold as investors seek refuge from economic uncertainty. This time, gold’s outperformance is driven by a “perfect storm” of prolonged geopolitical tensions, escalating trade disputes, political uncertainty under Trump’s second term, and a weakening U.S. dollar. The CNN Business Fear & Greed Index, a widely used measure of market sentiment, has remained in the “fear” and “extreme fear” zones. This stems largely from Trump’s protectionist policies, which have sparked swift retaliation from U.S. trading partners. With new tariff headlines surfacing almost daily, the future of economic policy and inflation has become increasingly uncertain, injecting heightened volatility into global markets. This has, in turn, strengthened gold’s appeal as a hedge against instability. Figure 4: Gold’s Demand is not Limited to Investors According to the World Gold Council, investment demand for gold doubled year-over-year in 2024. However, central banks have been the real drivers of demand, purchasing over 1,000 tons of gold for three consecutive years; accounting for 21% of global demand in 2024. The rising U.S. budget deficit and Trump’s "America First" policies have created additional risks for central banks holding large reserves of U.S. Treasuries. The ongoing tariff war not only undermines confidence in the U.S. as a reliable trade partner but also raises concerns about the U.S. dollar’s long-term stability as a safe-haven asset. This has accelerated the de-dollarization process, prompting many central banks to stockpile gold as a hedge against dollar exposure. Unlike investors who may hesitate to buy gold at record highs, central banks operate based on mandates, making them less price-sensitive. They are willing to continue accumulating gold at elevated levels, reinforcing sustained demand for the precious metal. Figure 5: A Weakening Dollar Since most gold futures contracts are denominated in U.S. dollars, a weaker dollar makes gold relatively cheaper for non-U.S. buyers, supporting its price. This negative correlation between the two assets has been a key driver of gold’s recent surge. The Trump administration has long argued that the U.S. dollar’s global dominance has kept it too strong for too long, hurting American manufacturers and contributing to deindustrialization. Further, a strong dollar reduces the price competitiveness of U.S. exports and has widened the trade deficit, leading the administration to pressure the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. While the Fed maintains its independence and data-driven approach, inflation trends continue to justify further easing. The market has already priced in three quarter-point rate cuts for this year, with expectations that the first cut could come as early as June. Gaining Access to Gold Historically, the London over-the-counter (OTC) market, operated by the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA), has been the largest gold trading center. Traders use the LBMA gold price as the global benchmark for gold transactions, including central bank purchases. On the other hand, the futures market is the preferred choice for hedge funds, bullion dealers, refineries, and mints to hedge against price fluctuations. Retail investors also typically gain exposure to gold through futures contracts, most commonly via the COMEX gold futures market. However, executing arbitrage strategies between the OTC and futures markets is capital-intensive and logistically challenging. Traditional arbitrage requires buying physical gold in the LBMA market at a lower price while simultaneously selling COMEX futures at a higher price. This involves storing, insuring, and shipping gold to COMEX-approved vaults, making it difficult to determine the fair value of the spread. Figure 6: B3 Gold Futures Contract A more accessible alternative is emerging: Brazil’s B3 Exchange will soon list a new gold futures contract referencing the LBMA gold price. This new contract offers several advantages: Easier arbitrage execution: Traders can capitalize on price discrepancies between the B3 contract and COMEX futures. Lower capital requirements: The contract size is just one troy ounce, 1/100th of the standard COMEX contract, allowing for greater flexibility in position sizing and risk management. Financial settlement: Both the B3 and COMEX one-ounce contracts are cash-settled, eliminating the logistical challenges of physical delivery. Putting into Practice Case Study 1: Arbitrage Strategy Figure 7: Current Available Gold Futures A comparison of the existing gold futures contracts highlights key differences in specifications, including fineness, contract size, and settlement methods. While these variations cater to the diverse needs of hedgers managing different gold inventories, they pose challenges for traders looking to establish arbitrage strategies due to mismatches in contract structures. The introduction of B3’s new gold futures contract addresses these limitations by aligning closely with the COMEX 1-ounce gold contract. This structural similarity simplifies the process of determining fair value in spread pricing, making arbitrage strategies more feasible. The primary distinction between the two lies in their price settlement methods, which, interestingly, also forms the basis of arbitrage opportunities between futures and spot prices. Additionally, traders can now take advantage of price discrepancies between the two LBMA daily fixing prices by utilizing the B3 Gold and TFEX Gold Online futures contracts. This expands the range of arbitrage opportunities and enhances market efficiency for gold traders. Case Study 2: Directional Strategy By considering all the factors – gold’s safe-haven appeal, geopolitical tensions, central banks accumulation, and a weakening dollar – we believe that this is not the end of the gold rally. An investor looking to express a bullish view on gold could do so by buying the B3 one-ounce futures contract, gaining exposure to gold’s price movements in a more accessible and cost-effective manner. Conclusion As global uncertainties mount, gold’s resilience remains undeniable. Whether as a hedge against inflation, a refuge from geopolitical turmoil, or a tool for strategic trading, gold continues to prove its value in times of crisis. With central banks stockpiling at record levels, the metal’s rally may still have room to run. For investors navigating today’s volatile landscape, gold is not just a safe-haven, it’s a strategic asset poised for continued strength. It is extremely timely to have new trading instruments like B3’s gold futures providing more accessible opportunities for investors. For traders looking to enhance liquidity and capitalize on bid-ask spread, B3 also offers a market-making program. Interested participants can reach out to the exchange for further details.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by inspirante
Long trade 15min TF overview Trade Overview: GC1! (Gold Futures) Long Position Entry Price: 3468.9 Profit Target: 3509.6 (+1.17%) Stop Loss: 3462.2 (–0.19%) Risk-Reward Ratio: 6.07 Target Liquidity High: 3509.8 🕔 Entry Time: 5:05 AM 📅 Date: Tuesday, 22nd April 2025 🌍 Session: London AM ⏱ Entry Timeframe: 5-Minute TF Trade Reasoning Intraday Market Structure: The 5-minute timeframe revealed a bullish internal break of structure, signalling a short-term reversal and favouring buy-side continuation. Price had formed a higher low, respecting bullish structure and suggesting accumulation.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by davidjulien369
Gold evaluation using Trend Fib extension...dual peaksAs you can see from the lower picture...I took two retrace peaks and traced the move with the fib tool and made the smaller one the solid line and the farther one the dashed line... Kinda fits pretty neatly in those lines eh?? Not much more to say, make up what you think the move action will be, I just provide the lines... And the numeration for those lines to be calculated is based off Pi and Fib percentages...so its not an actual default setting...can go into my other ideas where I actually give a table of all the numbers to enter in to achieve said result you see above and below... Both Trend Fibs are with the reverse setting on... ------- 10 min ------- 1 day far ------ This Trend is with the reverse setting off: weekly overview: and the closer daily...notice that 2000 quad peak: and yet closer view...see that bottom line under the sideways consolidation is like almost the same as previous...: finally the 10 min close up: everything but the two arrows is the same from above...so you get a nice overall price consolidation with these lines...
COMEX:GC1!
by CYQOTEK
Gann Box stacking and Gold...funny things alignNot much to explain here...just the boxes all aligned and stacked up onto each other starting from the 1999 low to the bull run high of 2011, and then copied and stacked to show current price action. However, there is a weird thing with boxes of the Gann type. Usually 25 and 75 time allotments, or 1st and last boxes, are the most aggressive moves. But this one has already almost broken the box in the first panel of the 25%. So you will either have a stagnation and then slight down or up drift until you hit the later 75% box at the most right....or you just go "nah, Irish goodbye to yah lad" and jump to the next box up...we shall see. But those lines do hold some weight and you can see the Gann angles had a few good pivots and one generally good line to follow through this initial explosion up. But we go sidesways if the house of bird poo color can clean up their act...pull a Styx and "Come sail away with me..." to the next box up and run to the like 5K limit, who shall know.... -------- from 1999 summer to 2011 summer to move the height of the box.... and its been achieved in merely 2 some years as of this point...oh boy VVVV Notice the 3 peaks at 1900 perfectly aligning with that box edge before the next box is stacked up to accommodate current price action... Your thoughts...right...wrong...or just a :) all welcome PS...These boxes arent made to fit this chart...It is just a pivot low to pivot high and then copied and stacked/extended....But see how that 2nd box times the triple peak and explosion into the newest up move...crazy hmm
COMEX:GC1!
by CYQOTEK
GOLD Follows "Buy The Dip" Mode, Being Supported by 200-hour SMAGold prices have experienced significant volatility over the last days, with conflicting reports on the current trend. According to some sources, gold prices have increased, with spot gold reaching $3,500 per troy ounce, new all the history high on Tuesday, April 22, 2025. The $3,500 milestone has sparked increased interest from investors and market analysts, meaning that Gold spot doubled in price over the past 5 years, 3rd time in history ever. Despite the short-term volatility, gold has shown a strong performance since the beginning of 2025, with an increase of approximately 30-35% year-to-date. Market analysts remain bullish on gold, with some forecasting prices to reach $ 4'000 per ounce in the near term. The main 1-hour graph indicates on 200-hours SMA technical support, with further upside opportunity due to forming on the chart descending triangle (flat bottom/ descending top) breakthrow. -- Best #GODL wishes, Your Beloved @PandorraResearch Team 😎
RUS:GDM2025
by PandorraResearch
Long trade 1Hr TF overview Trade Overview: GC1! (Gold Futures) – Long Position Entry Price: 3395.9 Profit Target: 3469.0 (+2.21%) Stop Loss: 3311.4 (–0.33%) Risk-Reward Ratio (RR): 6.68 🕕 Entry Time: 6:00 PM 📅 Date: Wednesday, 23rd April 2025 🌍 Session: New York PM ⏱ Entry Timeframe: 5-Minute TF Reasoning Narrative GC1! displayed signs of bullish continuation going into the New York PM session, with price consolidating between 3.325 - 3,319 in a tight range above a recently reclaimed support zone, followed by the breakout.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by davidjulien369
Gold Is Surging , Remains in Bullish Uptrend### **1. Overall Trend** - **Trend Direction:** Strong **uptrend** from early October 2024 to April 2025. - **Price Action:** Gold surged from around $2,800 to over $3,300, hitting a high near $3,329. --- ### **2. Indicators & Strategy Setup** **Strategy Used:** Steve’s DC-MACD Strategy (Manual Settings) - **DC Length:** 20 - **MACD Fast:** 12 - **MACD Slow:** 26 - **Signal Smoothing:** 9 - **Moving Averages Type:** EMA **Overlay Elements:** - **Green/Red Channels:** These represent **Donchian Channels** or volatility-based bands, indicating consolidation vs breakout. - **White Line:** Possibly a shorter EMA used as a dynamic support/resistance guide. --- ### **3. Signal Arrows** - **Red Down Arrows (BEAR):** Sell signals, typically at local tops or when the MACD crosses down. - **Green Up Arrows (BULL):** Buy signals, often following a breakout from consolidation. Recent Signal: - **Latest signal is BULL** in early April, aligning with a breakout above $3,100. --- ### **4. Volume** - **Spikes in volume** around signal points suggest institutional participation. - Noticeable volume increases in: - October (2024) - January and April (2025) --- ### **5. Market Context** - **Current Price:** $3,324.5 - **Pullback Potential:** After hitting $3,329, a short-term correction is possible, but the trend remains bullish unless price breaks below $3,200 with heavy sell volume. --- ### **6. Strategy Effectiveness** - The strategy has **accurately captured several trends**, especially the bullish breakout in late March. - However, **multiple false bear signals** during the uptrend suggest better performance in trending markets than in sideways conditions.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by MONEYMAXWELL
200 SMA pie for Bears SMA is a bold indicator to know analyze the price run & reccent prices was up by 21% & gap up opening in few trading sessions--makes a great bear move to catch let's understand. ___________________________________________________________________________________ 1) Gold is a commodity. 2) Which oftely don't show the big price moves. 3) 4 gap up opening in last 15 sessions. 4) Unusual volumes and move of the price. 5) Geoplitical Tensions of US-Tarrifs making gold the most attractive investment. 6) 20.65% up from 200SMA. ___________________________________________________________________________________ Less favroble for buyers and with good money for bears to make, unless some investment bank put in a 1/2 Billion.... GoMakeIt
MCX:GOLD1!Short
by rohannegi2112
asymmetric triangle or Rising wedge ? This chart shows the potential formation of either a symmetrical triangle or an ascending wedge on MGC1! ( Micro Gold Futures). The distinction -- Both suggest consolidation, but the edge leans bearish while the triangle is more neutral until broken. I identified the prior impulse move downward as the dominate leg. Price is currently forming higher lows, but may fail to break past the highs with strength, suggesting potential exhaustion from the bulls. I'm watching for: *A possible false breakout, then breakdown continuation. *The wedge's lower support to be tested. * Confirmation via a clean hourly close or with a bearish engulfing below $3,371.0 My ideal entry would be at the 50% FVG pull back of the engulfing candle. My First TP would be $3303 then my extended would be $3260, stop-loss above $3,380. Reasoning: this idea combines FVG imbalance, 50% institutional discount levels, and price action structure. The pattern also hints at market indecision, so I remain reactive rather than predictive. The market isn't worth it just tells a story and I'm listening to the chapter before the breakout.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by Aurum-Legacy