BITCOIN Trending Higher - Will Buyers Push Toward $104,550?COINBASE:BTCUSD has broken above a key resistance zone and is now pulling back for a potential retest. This area previously acted as resistance and may now serve as support, aligning with a potential bullish continuation.
If buyers confirm support at this level, the price is likely to move upward toward the $104,550 level, which serves as a logical target for this setup. Conversely, a failure to hold support could signal a potential bearish shift.
Traders should monitor for bullish confirmation signals, such as bullish engulfing candles, strong wicks rejecting the support zone, or increased buying volume, before considering long positions.
Let me know your thoughts or any additional insights you might have!
BITCOIN trade ideas
Bitcoin - All time highs will come next!Bitcoin - CRYPTO:BTCUSD - prepares a significant move:
(click chart above to see the in depth analysis๐๐ป)
Over the past couple of months, we basically only saw sideways price action on Bitcoin. However, this does not mean, that Bitcoin is now slowing down; actually the opposite is true and Bitcoin is setting up for a major move higher. New all time highs will come very soon.
Levels to watch: $100.000
Keep your long term vision!
Philip (BasicTrading)
BITCOIN - Bullish Continuation After BreakoutCOINBASE:BTCUSD has broken above a key daily resistance zone and is now pulling back for a potential retest. This area previously acted as a resistance and may now serve as support, aligning with a potential bullish continuation.
If buyers confirm support at this level, price is likely to continue upward toward the 102,000 level, which serves as a logical target based on previous structure. Conversely, a failure to hold this support could signal a potential shift and invalidate the bullish continuation.
Traders should monitor for bullish confirmation signals, such as bullish engulfing candles, strong wick rejections from the support zone, or increased buying volume, before considering long positions.
BTC - Will history repeat itself?In this description, I will compare the current price action of BTC with the market behavior seen in 2021. Both cycles share notable similarities in their structure.
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2021 bullmarket
During the 2021 bull market, BTC displayed classic topping price action. The chart showed slightly higher highs and higher lows, eventually forming a bearish Head & Shoulders pattern. This signaled a shift in momentum, and BTC subsequently broke down, confirming the bearish outlook.
At the lows later in 2021, Bitcoinโs price action became more corrective, with slightly lower lows and lower highs-often an early indication of a potential trend reversal. That reversal materialized as BTC launched into a strong impulse move to the upside, rallying all the way to the key Golden Pocket Fibonacci level before experiencing a modest retracement.
Following this healthy pullback, BTC gathered enough strength to break through resistance and surge to a new all-time high (ATH), which ultimately marked the peak of that bull cycle.
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This bullmarket
In the current bull market, BTC formed a classic double top pattern, echoing similar setups from previous cycles. After reaching highs near $110k BTC experienced a significant correction, dropping to around $74k. At this level, the price action turned corrective, with a series of slightly lower lows and lower highs-reminiscent of the consolidation seen at the 2021 market bottom.
During this consolidation, BTC established three notable lows, forming a potential base for a reversal. Following this corrective phase, BTC surged upward in a strong impulse move, reaching the critical Golden Pocket-the 61.8% to 65% Fibonacci retracement zone, which is widely regarded as a key area for potential reversals or continuation of trends.
Currently, BTC is consolidating near this Golden Pocket. Traders are watching closely to see if the price will face rejection here, as it did in 2021, or if it can break above and sustain a new uptrend. The outcome at this level will likely determine whether the next major move is a continuation to new highs or a deeper retracement.
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Conclusion
When comparing the corrections following the 2021 and 2025 peaks, the similarities are striking. Both cycles feature a bottom formed through a similar pattern, followed by a strong move up to the Golden Pocket Fibonacci level. The key question now is whether BTC will experience another corrective pullback before making a renewed attempt at the all-time high, or if it will break through resistance and continue its upward momentum. Only time will tell which path the market will choose.
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Bitcoin: First Leg Of Wave 5 To 109K.Bitcoin has lingered around the 95K resistance area over the previous week. In my opinion this is a sub wave iii completion (5 mini waves can be counted within the bullish breakout leg). This implies there is a greater probability of a retrace or sub wave iv (see wave count on chart). The retrace can go as low as the 90K support without overlapping sub wave i which would keep the bullish impulse in play. Also there is enough evidence here to suggest this structure is likely the first wave of the broader Wave 5 which can see a test of the 109K high over the coming months.
The current high (see arrow) shows signs of potential reversal at a location where such a pattern can be expected. The question is, when will it retrace and how far? It is anyone's guess. This is where you have to have the ability to adjust as the market provides new information. Until then the best we can do is assess loose probabilities and wait to see how the market aligns or not.
The adjustment process is two fold: evaluating support/resistance levels and assessing the RISK associated with a given scenario. For example, the illustration on the chart shows a retrace back to 90K, this or some variation of this scenario may or may not unfold. The key is to have levels identified in advance and then WAITING to see how the market behaves at such levels. Does it confirm our idea or not? In the case of Bitcoin now, the 95K area resistance is sticking and a reversal pattern has appeared which adheres to the retrace scenario, but how far it retraces is up to Bitcoin. We have to wait and see what type of bullish reversals appear and where they appear before RISK can be assessed for a swing trade on this time frame.
Markets that linger around levels can be very hard to trade if you are the type that forces trades or assert opinions. Slow grinds are especially tough to sit through which is why I always suggest evaluating smaller time frames while keeping this bigger picture in mind. There are plenty of smaller opportunities to capitalize on if you can recognize the support/resistance levels and trend structure on the smaller time frames without losing site of the bigger picture.
On this time frame for swing trades, I am not interested in the short side. I prefer to wait for the retrace (wave iv) measure to see how far it goes, WAIT for the reversal confirmation, then quantify the RISK from that point. IF this scenario appears, I would be anticipating a retest of the 100K resistance and expecting a greater chance of a breakout to a higher high (low to mid 100ks)? This can take at least two weeks to play out in my opinion. And if this scenario does not play out, then adjust to the whatever new information the market is presenting.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
(BTC/USD) 1H Trade Setup โ Key Entry, Stop Loss & Dual TargetEntry Point: 95,431
Stop Loss: 95,264
Target Points:
Upside (Target 1): 100,674 (Potential gain: +5.36%)
Downside (Target 2): 86,614 (Potential loss: -7.57%)
Trade Setup:
Risk-Reward Ratio:
Approx. 1:0.7 (Not ideal; the reward is smaller than the potential loss)
Support Zones:
Highlighted in purple beneath the entry zone โ this indicates a historically strong support area.
Resistance Zones:
The upper purple zone marks the next significant resistance around 100,000โ100,795.
Technical Indicators:
50 EMA (Blue Line): Indicates mid-term trend support, currently holding price action.
Price Action: BTC appears to be retracing toward support after a bullish rally.
Interpretation:
The setup implies a long (buy) position with a very tight stop loss.
The price is nearing a support zone, and if it holds, there's potential for an upward move to the target at 100,674.
However, if price breaks below 95,264, a sharp drop to 86,614 is anticipated.
Why Volume Bar Colors Can Mislead Youโ The Truth Behind Volume Bars โ What Do Green and Red Actually Mean?
Most traders learn early on that green volume bars mean bullish activity, and red bars mean bearish pressure. But is it really that simple? What does volume truly reflect, and are we making assumptions that can mislead us?
โ What Volume Actually Is
Volume represents the number of shares/contracts traded during a specific time interval. Every transaction includes both a buyer and a seller. So, volume itself doesnโt distinguish whether a trade was bullish or bearish. Instead, platforms color volume bars based on price movement:
Green: If price closed higher than it opened.
Red: If price closed lower than it opened.
Some platforms, like TradingView, allow you to color volume based on whether the price closed higher or lower than the previous candleโs close.
So YOU, as a trader, have the chance to decide whether to assign volume bars either bullish or bearish! Itโs a setting parameter anyone can change. Traders around the globe might look at the same volume bar, but some interpret it as bearish, while others interpret it as bullish. What is the most correct way?
โ The Assumption Behind the Color
This coloring assumes that:
A rising price means buyers were more aggressive (lifting the ask).
A falling price means sellers were more aggressive (hitting the bid).
This is a proxy โ an approximation. It simplifies market pressure into a binary outcome: if price goes up, it's bullish volume; if it goes down, it's bearish. But the market isn't always so binary.
However, the assumption is only an approximation of buying vs. selling. In reality, every single trade involves both a buyer and a seller, so volume itself isnโt inherently โbuyโ or โsellโ โ what matters is who initiated the trades. As one trading expert explains, talking about โbuying volumeโ vs โselling volumeโ can be misleading: for every buyer there is a seller, so volume cannot be literally split into purchases and salesโ. Instead, what traders really mean by โbullish volumeโ is that buyers were more aggressive (lifting offers) and drove the price up, whereas โbearish volumeโ means sellers were more aggressive (hitting bids) and drove the price downโ. The colored volume bar is essentially a proxy for which side won the battle during that bar.
โ Why This Can Mislead You
Price might close higher, not because there were more buyers than sellers (there never are โ every trade has both), but because buyers were more urgent. And sometimes price moves due to other forces, like:
Short covering.
Stop-loss runs.
Liquidity vacuums.
This means a green bar might not reflect strong demand, just urgency from the other side closing their positions.
โช Example:
Take the well-known GameStop short squeeze as an example. If you looked only at the volume bars during that rally, youโd see a wall of strong green candles and high volume, which might suggest aggressive bullish buying.
However, that interpretation would be misleading.
Under the surface, the surge wasn't driven by fresh bullish conviction โ it was massive short covering. Traders who were short were forced to buy back shares to cover their positions, which drove prices even higher. The volume was categorized as bullish, but the true intent behind the move had nothing to do with new buying pressure.
This demonstrates why relying solely on volume color or candle direction can lead to false conclusions about market sentiment.
Does this simple up/down volume labeling truly reflect buying vs. selling pressure? To a degree, yes โ it captures the net price outcome, which often corresponds to who was more aggressive. For example, if many buyers are willing to pay higher prices (demand), a bar will likely close up and be colored green, reflecting that buying interest. Conversely, if eager sellers are dumping shares and undercutting each other, price will drop, yielding a red bar that flags selling pressure. Traders often use rising volume on up-moves as confirmation of a bullish trendโs strength, and high volume on down-moves as a warning of distribution, which indeed aligns with traditional analysisโ
That said, the method has important limitations and nuances, documented both anecdotally and in research:
โช Volume is not one-dimensional: Since every trade has both a buyer and seller, one cannot literally count โbuy volumeโ vs โsell volumeโ without more information. The green/red coloring is a blunt classification based on price direction, not an actual count of buys or sells. It assumes the price change direction is an adequate proxy for the imbalance of buying vs. selling. This is often true in a broad sense, but itโs not a precise measure of order flow.
โช Intrabar Dynamics Are Lost: A single barโs color only tells the end result of that interval, not the story of what happened during the bar. For instance, a 4-hour candle might be red (down) overall, but it could have contained three hours of rally (buying) followed by a steep selloff in the final hour that erased the gains. The volume bar will be colored red due to the net price drop, even though significant buying occurred earlier in the bar. In other words, a large red bar can mask that there were pockets of bullish activity within โ the selling just happened to win out by the close of that period. Without looking at smaller time frames or detailed data, one canโt tell from a single color how the buying/selling tug-of-war progressed within the bar.
โช Gap Effects and Criteria Choices: The choice of using open vs. close or previous close can alter the interpretation of volume. As discussed, a day with a big gap can be labeled differently under the two methods. Neither is โrightโ or โwrongโ โ they just highlight different perspectives (intraday momentum vs. day-over-day change). Traders should be aware that colored volume bars are an approximation. A green volume bar under one method might turn red under the other method for the same bar. This doesnโt mean volume changed โ it means the classification scheme changed. For example, a stock that closes below its open but still higher than yesterday will show a red volume bar by the intraday method but would be considered an โup-volume dayโ in OBV terms (previous close method).
โช No Indication of Magnitude or Commitment: A single color also doesnโt convey how much buying or selling pressure there was, only which side won. Two green volume bars might both be green, but one could represent a modest uptick with tepid buying, whereas another could represent an aggressive buying spree โ the color alone doesnโt distinguish this (other than one bar likely being taller if volume was higher). Traders often need to consider volume relative to average (e.g. using volume moving averages or looking for volume spikes) to judge the significance of a move, not just the color.
โ Summary
The coloring of volume bars is a visual shortcut, not an exact science. Itโs a guess based on price direction โ useful, but imperfect. Understanding this helps traders avoid reading too much into what a green or red volume bar actually means.
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Disclaimer
The content provided in my scripts, indicators, ideas, algorithms, and systems is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
Bitcoin update 7.05.2025Hey everyone!
In just 2 days, my first offline/online trading tournament kicks off โ and you'll be able to watch everything live. It's a big milestone for me and a real-time test of my analysis. But now, letโs get back to the market...
๐ฐ Bitcoin today โ May 7
As I mentioned earlier, I expect Bitcoin to reach the 98 K - 100 K zone this May to grab the liquidity sitting above the highs. This could be the final push before a correction. Check the chart for details.
When we reach 100k, all the public media will say that BTC broke 100k and after that there will be a rollback, as happens very often.
๐ After that, a correction makes sense; Iโve explained why in earlier posts. But letโs talk fundamentals.
๐๏ธ Not rumors. Facts:
๐น The U.S. is moving toward Bitcoin reserves.
New Hampshire just became the first U.S. state to pass a law creating a strategic Bitcoin reserve, signed by Governor Kelly Ayotte.
๐น I believe other states will follow with similar legislation - this is no longer speculation. It's the next phase of BTC adoption in the U.S.
And as the saying goes:
"Buy the rumor, sell the news."
๐ Geopolitical tension:
The India-Pakistan conflict is now a global headline. Two nuclear powers. Any correction could easily be โjustifiedโ by this news.
But...
๐ I donโt trade the news - I trade my analysis.
As you know, I publish my forecasts ahead of time and stay consistent.
๐งญ My outlook:
I expect one last minor correction in the next 1 - 2 weeks, followed by a move to new all-time highs.
Best regards, EXCAVO
_____________________
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 5-2-25 : Major CRUSH PatternToday's pattern is a Major CRUSH pattern in Counter-Trend mode. These types of patterns (CRUSH patterns) are usually very large range bars that move against the current price trend. A Counter-trend Major CRUSH pattern would likely be a huge bar that moves counter to a counter-trend - thus potentially BULLISH.
Today, I have my reservations related to how this Major Crush pattern will setup. As I stated in my video, yesterday's price bar setup an Island type of bar (in an Evening formation) which is very typical of a topping pattern.
Today, I'm expecting the markets to sell downward into the Major CRUSH pattern. I believe the move of my MRM system into Bullish Trending yesterday sets up a perfect opportunity for the markets to shake out the longs on a big CRUSH pattern today.
But, I've also highlighted bullish breakaway levels on the SPY/QQQ chart for traders to be prepared for any outcome today.
In short, I believe the May 2-5 Major Bottom aligns with this Major CRUSH pattern as a downward price trend today. But, I'll be prepared to take my lumps if I'm wrong and the markets rally straight upward.
Over the past few days, we've seen some interesting developments in China and other places. I do not believe the US market is immune from the global slowdown which is taking place right now. Therefore, I urge traders to continue to stay protected from risks and to keep allocation levels rather small.
It may seem like a fantastic time to throw out some big trades - but it is still very dangerous in this extreme volatility.
I see Gold and Silver trying to base/bottom near recent lows over the next 5+ days. I still believe Gold will be trading at or near $4100 before the end of May.
Bitcoin seems to have followed the SPY/QQQ upward since April 21. I believe this is pure speculation. I'm still very cautious of a breakdown in the markets right now.
Let's see how this Major CRUSH pattern plays out.
It should be interesting - one way or the other (again, I'm still leaning toward a BEARISH breakdown in price today).
Get some...
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BITCOIN is filling all gaps as it should.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is having its strongest 1D green candle since April 22 (for now) and basically today's analysis is a continuation/ modification of our April 14 buy call (see chart below):
Our Target was $99500 but we now update it to $106000 as we see a different pattern through filling the Lower Highs gaps. As you can see, since BTC's April 07 bottom, the rebound has filled one Lower High of the downtrend after the other.
At the same time, it has posted identical rallies before consolidating, the 1st one +15.37% and the 2nd +15.11%. We are currently on the 3d and if it makes again +15.11%, then it gets us to $106.9k. That is marginally above the Lower High of January 30, practically the first Lower High after the January 20 All Time High (ATH).
Moreover, the 2.0 Fibonacci extension level is at $106k and this is why we've moved our short-term Target there. This fills all dynamic conditions of this uptrend.
Do you think that's a fair estimate? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 5-6 : GAP Breakaway patternToday's pattern suggests a morning GAP will take place and price will continue to break away from yesterday's body range.
Given the fact that the markets are already almost 0.8-0.9% lower than yesterday's closing price level, this suggests the markets will continue to trend downward today.
Is this it? Is this the breakdown for May 2-5, seeking the Major Bottom I've talked about for the past 3+ weeks?
We'll find out over the next 5-10+ days.
Ultimately, the EPP patterns have aligned across multiple instruments/symbols to present a very clear opportunity to the downside. Now, we need to watch and wait as the markets should be moving into the early FLAGGING stage of the downward EPP pattern.
After the FLAGGING pattern, we should get the breakdown into consolidation, which is where I believe big profits can be made. That breakdown into the consolidation phase is usually very aggressive and can often be after the FLAGGING range.
Gold and Silver are making a move higher. I suggested this would be the case over the past 5-10+ days - but, boy, was it frustrating to watch Gold and Silver consolidate over the past few weeks.
At this point, I'm looking for Gold to rally above $3500 and for Silver to attempt to rally above $34.00.
Bitcoin seems to be leading the SPY/QQQ (again) and appears to be about 2-3 days ahead of the major US indexes, attempting to move into a downward FLAGGING formation.
This could be very interesting if BTCUSD continues to lead the SPY/QQQ. Meaning, we may be able to rely on the structures/setups in BTCUSD as a 2-3 day early window of that the SPY/QQQ may be doing (for a while). I'm sure it won't continue to align at some point in the future.
Again, I'm getting great comments from followers and subscribers. Thank you.
I'm doing my best to deliver the best research I can within these 15 to 20-min videos.
Get some.
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BITCOIN (BTCUSD): Will We Test 100k Support Soon?After a strong uptrend last week, โ ๏ธBitcoin has paused its growth and is now consolidating. A familiar bullish pattern, an ascending triangle, is forming on the 4-hour chart.
Currently, the neckline of this pattern is being tested. If there is a breakout above 96,000 and a 4-hour candle closes above this level, it could signal a continuation of the bullish trend.
The price may rise to 68,000 and potentially test the resistance at 100,000.
BITCOIN Mirror fractal from the past calls for massive rally!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) appears to be repeating almost the exact same price action as mid-late 2020 as it has broken above the Pivot trend-line that separates the recent distribution from the 2nd Accumulation phase and has successfully re-tested it while the MA50 (blue trend-line) is holding as Support.
If the latter continues to hold, then it might fuel a massive rally similar to October 2020 - April 2021. As you can see both fractals started of with a 1st Accumulation Phase (blue Rectangle) being supported always by their respective MA200 (orange trend-line), which led to the eventual Distribution Phase (red Arc). Even their RSI sequences are identical.
Is this another pattern supporting that BTC will reach at least $150k next? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Hellena | BITCOIN (4H): LONG to resistance area of 101,000.Dear colleagues, in the coming week I expect price to continue rising in wave โ5โ. I think that wave โ3โ is already completed and now we are witnessing a small correction.
Reaching the resistance area of 101,000 will be the end of the big โABCโ correction.
The 91,601 area could be a good support area to complete the correction.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
BRIEFING Week #18 : Waiting for RotationHere's your weekly update ! Brought to you each weekend with years of track-record history..
Don't forget to hit the like/follow button if you feel like this post deserves it ;)
That's the best way to support me and help pushing this content to other users.
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Phil
BITCOIN 1st 1W MACD Bullish Cross in 7 months!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is ahead of completing this week a Bullish Cross on its 1W MACD, which will be the first one after 7 months (since October 14 2024).
This is a major technical bullish development as since the very first one (Sep 26 2022) right before the November 21 2022 Bear Cycle bottom, it has always kick-started the Bullish Legs of this 2.5-year Channel Up.
In addition to that, this was accompanied by an Ichimoku Bullish Cross, where the Conversion Line (green) crossed above the Base Line (black). Considering also that exactly 4 weeks ago BTC found Support and rebounded on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), we can safely confirm a Bottom there and call for the minimum +100.73% rise, similar to the first Bullish Leg of this Channel Up. We remain consistent to our $150000 Target.
So do you think this 1W MACD Bullish Cross is the final confirmation we need for the new Bullish Leg? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Climbing the Fibonacci Staircase..Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has come into the Fed Rate Decision week stronger that ever, having staged an impressive rebound from the early-April Low. The consolidation of the last few days is of course a market reaction in anticipation of the big interest rate news.
Regardless of that, the Channel Up that is the underlying pattern from the start of this Bull Cycle has been filling on an impressive symmetrical scale all .382 Fibonacci extensions one by one. The most recent has been the 4.382 and naturally the next in line is the 5.382 Fibonacci extension.
Since the last one (4.382) was almost hit before the price pull-back, it would be more fitting to assume the next peak slightly below the 5.382 Fib ext as well as $170000.
This may very well be the final High i.e. the Cycle's Top before the next Bear Cycle begins, depending on the time it hits it.
Do you think that would be the case? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BTC Roadmap โ May 2025๐จ BTC Roadmap โ May 2025
Hereโs the timeline youโll want to pin and come back to.
โธป
๐ด May 4โ6
Low volume. No major moves expected.
BTC goes DOWN and BTC dominance starts trending down, but itโs not the moment to jump in yet. Patience.
๐ข May 7โ9: ALT PUMPS
BTC Volume increases!
BTC UP
This is the first major altcoin opportunity.
๐ด May 10โ13: SELL SIGNAL
This is your exit window.
1D SELL confirmed. Prepare for cooling.
BTC Volume drops.
โช๏ธ May 15โ17: May USDT.D will go UP!
USDT dominance reaches a local bottom - BTC HUGE DUMP .
BTC Volume rises again โ BIG MOVE up after 17th.
๐ข May 17โ20: BTC and ALT PUMPS
Perfect LONG entry zone.
๐ด May 21โ23: USDT HIGH โ market will go UP faster!
USDT.D peaks. BTC and altcoins prepare for breakout.
BTC Volume high.
๐ธ Dollar weakens โ Risky assets explode (BTC, alts, growth)
โธป
NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE
Major Confluence Area for BTCBTC bulls have been very excitable recently but BTC has not yet done anything outside of a common bull trap norms.
The rally to 95K was perfectly inside the scope of a correction, see below idea;
Now we're into the biggest test area so far;
We have a possible butterfly (corrective pattern).
We have a possible 76 retracement (Corrective pattern)
We have a retest of the logical resistance (Corrective pattern).
If BTC is able to break through these this would be extremely positive. There's be no classical bear case to be made and failing funky bull traps this would likely develop into a good trend leg.
But if it's a bull trap, then this rally helps us to plan the downside levels (Which have not changed much).
BTC at Key Inflection Zone โ Breakout or Rejection Ahead?Asset: BTC/USD
Timeframe: 4H or Daily (based on visual pattern structure)
As of: May 6, 2025
Indicators:
50 EMA (Red): $91,615.79
200 EMA (Blue): $89,305.75
Key Technical Zones:
๐ด Resistance Zone: ~$104,000 โ $108,000
This area has historically acted as a major supply zone.
Price has been rejected from this level multiple times, indicating strong selling pressure.
๐ Flip Zone (Resistance turned Support/Support turned Resistance): ~$95,500 โ $100,000
The current price ($95,234.23) is testing this zone from below.
A confirmed break and hold above could signal continuation toward the higher resistance.
๐ข Strong Support Zone: ~$88,000 โ $91,000
Confluence of 50 EMA and 200 EMA adds strength to this demand zone.
Previous breakout level and accumulation area.
EMA Outlook:
50 EMA > 200 EMA: Short-term bullish crossover is active, indicating bullish momentum.
Both EMAs are sloping upward slightly, suggesting trend strengthening.
Price is currently above both EMAs, which acts as dynamic support.
Potential Scenarios:
โ
Bullish Scenario:
If price reclaims the $95,500โ$100,000 resistance-turned-support zone:
Expect upward momentum to continue.
Target: $104,000โ$108,000 zone.
Break of $108K could lead to a macro bull continuation.
โ ๏ธ Bearish Scenario:
If price rejects the current zone and fails to hold above the $91,000 support:
Look for retest of $88,000โ$89,000 area (confluence with EMAs).
Breakdown below that zone would invalidate bullish structure and signal potential deeper correction.
Summary:
Bias: Bullish above $91K, Neutral between FWB:88K โ$91K, Bearish below $88K.
Key Confirmation Needed: Daily close above $100,000 for strong bullish continuation.
Risk Management: Watch for fakeouts within the $95Kโ$100K range due to past volatility.
Bitcoin Outlook May 5th โ Short, Swing, & Long-Term Views1/ Short-Term (Intraday): Chop City
BTC is stuck in a tight range between 95K (demand) and 98K (supply). Oscillators mixed, momentum fading near resistance.
Play: Fade extremes, scalp carefully.
Watch: Breakout above 98K or breakdown below 95K for momentum triggers.
2/ Swing Traders (DaysโWeeks): Cautiously Bullish
Weekly bullish structure intact, but daily charts flashing caution (Three Black Crows, Double Top, RSI stretched).
Ideal scenario: Buy dips near 96Kโ95K if momentum resets bullishly.
Invalidation: Daily close below 94.5K flips bias neutral/bearish.
3/ Long-Term Investors (Months+): Bullish with Caution
Macro backdrop remains supportive (SPX bullish, DXY weak, yields stable/rising). Institutional BTC flows steady.
BUT monthly chart shows bearish divergenceโmomentum slowing.
Core strategy: Accumulate on major dips (ideal: 87Kโ76K).
Critical invalidation: Monthly close below $76K demands risk-off rebalance.
4/ Macro Catalysts to Watch
- Equity markets (SPX) & bond yields (US10Y) maintaining risk-on stance.
- USD weakness (DXY bearish) supports BTC upside.
- Watch ETF news, institutional flows, and altcoin rotation signals for early clues.
5/ Risk Management
Short-term: Tight stops, quick profits.
Swing: Respect daily structure; cut below $94.5K.
Long-term: Hold bullish conviction above $76K monthly support.
Bottom Line for Traders & Investors
- Short-term: Range-bound scalps
- Swing: Buy dips cautiously
- Long-term: Bullish, but respect slowing momentum
Stay agile, manage risk, and trade smart. Good luck this week! ๐
BTC/USD 4H Chart Setup โ Bullish Breakout Targeting $104K1. Trend Direction
โฌ๏ธ Uptrend Detected
* Price is forming higher highs and higher lows
* Trading inside a bullish channel
* Breakout potential above the top trendline.
2. Key Zones
๐ฆ Support Zone: $95,252.31
* Labeled as RBS + RBR ZONE
* Strong buy area โ previous resistance turned support
* Perfect area to catch a bounce
๐ Support Line & Trendline
* Trendline keeps price supported along the climb
* Acts as a launch pad for the next move.
3. EMA 70 (๐ Red Line)
* Current value: $93,636.88
* Price is above EMA, showing strong bullish pressure
* EMA acts as dynamic support.
4. Trade Setup
๐ฏ Target Point: $104,000
๐ฆ Target Zone: $103,918.60 โ $104,747.91
๐ฅ Entry Zone: $95,252.31 (marked blue box)
โ ๏ธ Stop Loss: $94,091.28
* Positioned safely below support
* Good Risk/Reward Ratio.
5. Extra Cues
๐
Economic event icons near May 3โ6 โ Potential volatility ahead
โก Pullback in progress โ May offer a buying opportunity.
Conclusion
๐ Bullish Setup!
* Watch for a bounce from the blue demand zone
* Targeting $104K breakout
* Strong support + momentum = solid long opportunity.