BTC is suggesting a potential bearish reversalBitcoin (BTC) is currently exhibiting a head and shoulders pattern near the $96K– GETTEX:97K resistance zone, suggesting a potential bearish reversal. This pattern, characterized by three peaks—the middle being the highest—indicates that the upward trend may be weakening .
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on May 7, 2025, is a pivotal event for BTC. While the consensus anticipates that the Fed will maintain current interest rates, the market is keenly awaiting Chair Jerome Powell's remarks for hints of future monetary policy directions. A dovish tone could bolster BTC prices, whereas a hawkish stance might exert downward pressure .
Technical analysis reveals that BTC has been trading within a range of $93,399.86 to $97,625.81 over the past 24 hours, with the current price around $96,362. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 58, suggesting that BTC is approaching overbought territory but hasn't crossed it yet .
A significant support level lies around $88,700, where substantial liquidity could trigger a price rebound if tested. However, if the head and shoulders pattern confirms a breakdown, BTC might retest lower support levels, potentially around $78,000 .
Actionable Insight: Traders should closely monitor the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern and the outcome of the FOMC meeting. A break below the neckline with increased volume could signal a bearish trend, while a dovish Fed stance might invalidate the pattern, leading to bullish momentum.
More Analysis and Trading Ideas on SorooshX
BITCOIN trade ideas
Blow off soon?PSA this is just ripping off Peter Brandt's tweets. I gathered his breadcrumbs and pieced together this analysis.
His most recent comment in April '25 suggested that the recent BTC pullback was a back-test of a long standing reverse H&S formation. He has not provided any charting of this formation afaik but I reverse engineered it and I believe this is the formation he is referring to.
He has also said several times that he feels the peak will be in Sept '25 at around $140,000.
Given this information, we have a rough roadmap of how we ought to get there. The market has cooled off since inauguration day and could be preparing for the blow off top.
Fingers crossed!
BTC has reached 88.5kBTC has reached 88.5k as per today, my target previously was 88k but I got out too soon at 86k (I got the weak hands syndrome for a bit, I blame the market its been too choppy)
So what do I see BTC doing next?
In all honesty BTC is looking very strong, I am sure the trend will continue but 88.5 has been a very strong point of resistance so I would say wait for the price to go over resistance before buying (this is my case) or wait for the price to retest the support and hold before buying.
Supports going down will be at around 86.7k and 85.1k The strongest support going down is the 83,5k I don't think it will go that low, but just in case it did and we don't see the huge red candles of death, then there is a chance that BTC will reverse and make it to the next resistances which are at around 95.2k and 109.3k
But one thing is for sure it makes no sense from a market maker's perspective to test low supports again because 88.5k will still be resistance again! So it makes more sense to just jump into 89-92k hold prices there and start going sideways there, so the alts can pump after.
Anyhow put stop loses up, do your diligence and don't trust any body else's advice not even mine, I can be wrong and I have been wrong, so let's not get rekt and enjoy the uptrends.
Next BTC Bullish Target: 110,000?BTC has successfully broken through the last major bearish FVG, signaling a potential shift to bullish momentum. Multiple bullish FVGs on the chart indicate possible support zones where price could retrace before pushing higher. The next target is the breakout of the next bearish FVG towards $102,000-$104,000 before it reach new ATH. Looking for further confirmations on bullish continuation.
Previous Breakout of Bearish FVG:
The recent breakout of the bearish Fair Value Gap (FVG) indicates a shift in momentum. The price has moved above the previous significant resistance, which could be interpreted as a bullish signal.
Bullish FVGs at Key Levels:
The chart shows multiple bullish FVGs (Fair Value Gaps) marked at different price levels. These areas are often considered potential support zones where price could retrace to before continuing the upward trend.
Next Target: Breaking the Bearish FVG:
The next major target is to break the bearish FVG above, which could open the path towards the higher price levels. If this zone gets broken, the bullish momentum could accelerate super fast.
Bullish Market Sentiment:
Given that the last bearish FVG has already been broken and the price is consistently moving higher within bullish FVG areas, the general sentiment is bullish.
The movement suggests that after minor pullbacks to the bullish FVG levels, the price is likely to continue upward toward the 110k+ target range.
Bitcoin with dynamic cycle oscillatorCOINBASE:BTCUSD weekly chart with dynamic cycle oscillator.
Indicator suggests a shift in cycle from down to up phase since late April. Those with bullish views on BTC can position themselves to go long using lower timeframes.
A brief description of the cycle oscillator:
1. The relative position within the cycle is derived from stochastic concepts.
2. Cycle period is calculated dynamically using autocorrelation (the relationship of a variable with lagged values of itself) Incidently, setting a long lookback period gives very similar results.
Bitcoin vs Nasdaq for this cycleSo many people say bitcoin is like high beta nasdaq, but that is not the case if you plot the historical chart.
Bitcoin just goes up against everything on the long term.
Now if we compare to previous cycles, and apply the fibonacci retracements, we can see the previous cycle top was BTC = 1.618 times de Nasdaq 100 index.
Assuming the same fibo retracement, the top for this cycle would take us around 7 times nasdaq 100, which would be around 140k USD at current prices. Now depending on what nasdaq does, and assuming it goes up to previous highs, we would be talking about 150k USD.
Now, I think this is a pretty conservative estimate given that we are in a global debt crisis, and that bitcoin will position itself as a neutral risk-off asset for investors who do not want to take other risks due to tariffs, deflation, debt refinancing etc.
I think a better estimate is around 10-12 times nasdaq, which could take us to 250-300k USD top, which matches the estimate when comparting btc to gold (see my previous idea).
What Does the Future hold for BTC?I came across this really old Super Cycle indicator I have been holding onto since 2017. of .------------- from 2017 cycle top to 2021 cycle top there was a 222% increase. I used the same percentage of gain and place it from 2021 cycle top and pulled a fib. I have a golden pocket sitting around 150k-200k. I think the cycle Top incoming will be inside that golden pocket Fib. I am looking for halving to end in that price range. I will look for a Big SHORT play inside the golden pocket and take TP around the 50k area where market maker will come and take his liquidity back. I think when the Halving is over and cycle high shows on chart, BTC will fall to its previous cycle top high(2021 halving high) which is around 50k BTC, which would be the new cycle low. This play will take a long time to play but very curious to see what happens in the future. (I will leave updates on this chart. so lets stay tuned for this :*)
BTC NEXT MOVE?🚀 Bitcoin (BTC) Market Update
We are expecting a small dip in Bitcoin's price, potentially down to the 89,000–90,000 USD zone. From that level, we anticipate a strong rally toward 101,000 USD, as highlighted in the chart.
📈 This move could also lead Bitcoin toward making a new all-time high!
Stay patient and follow the setup carefully.
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Bitcoin Makes Nice MovePrice action continues to look strong, with BTC holding above key support at $88,804 after breaking out from both descending resistance and the 200 MA. The structure is clearly bullish, and we’re seeing healthy follow-through after the breakout.
That said, I’m keeping an eye on potential bearish divergence forming on the RSI. While price is making higher highs, RSI has yet to confirm with a new high of its own. This doesn’t mean a reversal is imminent — divergences can resolve through consolidation or minor pullbacks — but it’s something to be cautious of in an otherwise strong trend.
Momentum remains on the bulls' side, but I’m staying measured here rather than euphoric.
Bitcoin and the 2013 - 2017 Fractal Update - Have we left it >?
For now, I am going to say YES but maybe not completely.
If we look at the shape of the Fractal and what BTC PA is currently doing, it could be said that we have just completed 2 ranges in one go..the little one that Took us below the fractal and the other one that is next up the Fractal line.
But it is the next 8 weeks that will define this fully and for now, so as to not get caught short, literally, I am looking to that Dashed Arrow that comes off the circle.
Noe, I drew that circle back in late Feb ( posted in March ) and PA has just entered it, as can be seen on this Daily version of the same chart ( but with candles and not a line)
The fact that we have even entered this area tells me that the dashed Arrow is the path PA will take as a route of least resistance and with a possible ATH in Dec of around 322K USD.
That ATH is on the line of resistance drawn from the 2017 ATH and has rejected every Cycle ATH since. ( The line shown on the chart irons out detail but be assured, that line passes throgh the 2021 Nov ATH )
The possibility does exist, thogh gettign slimer, that PA could climb back over the top of the Fractal, though the push to do that would take a LOT of investment... possibly to much now.
So, I will sit happy, looking forward to a 370K -> 322K ATH later in the year..
And it MUST be said, as I always say, Look on both sides. There is a possibility that PA could Drop back to the 80K - > 72K line though I feel this is highly unlikely but we are now entering a zone of strong resistance
Things may get Volatile Soon.
But I would just like to say "THANK YOU" to the 2013 -2017 Fractal. You have taken us on a ride since Nov 2021 and shown us how to do things properly.
And so now.........New Adventures and Horizons await........Onwards and upwards
BTCUSD INTRADAY sideways consolidationThe BTC/USD pair maintains a bullish overall sentiment, underpinned by a sustained upward trend. However, recent intraday price action suggests a phase of sideways consolidation, indicating a potential buildup before the next directional move.
Key Levels:
Support: 90,880 (primary), followed by 88,800 and 87,070
Resistance: 98,940, with extended targets at 101,030 and 101,100
A corrective dip toward the key support zone at 90,880 could offer a bullish rebound opportunity. A successful bounce from this level would reinforce the uptrend and pave the way for a test of the 98,940 resistance. A breakout above this level may open the door to further gains toward 101,030 and 101,100 over the longer term.
Conversely, a decisive break and daily close below 90,880 would invalidate the bullish setup, potentially triggering a deeper pullback toward the 88,800 and 87,070 support levels.
Conclusion:
While the broader trend remains bullish, BTC/USD is currently consolidating. Traders should watch the 90,880 support closely—its defence may confirm trend continuation, while a breakdown could signal a short-term bearish reversal.
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