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Pride Comes Before the Fall: A Trading Lesson in HumilityIn trading, as in life, pride can be your undoing. The saying “Pride comes before the fall” holds a profound lesson for traders who let overconfidence cloud their judgment. While confidence is an essential trait for success, excessive pride often leads to reckless decision-making, ignored warnings, and ultimately, significant losses. This post explores the dangers of pride in trading and how maintaining humility can safeguard your capital and enhance your decision-making process. The Dangers of Pride in Trading 1. Overconfidence in Winning Streaks Few things inflate a trader's ego like a winning streak. When every trade seems to go in your favor, it's tempting to believe you've mastered the market. However, markets are dynamic and unforgiving. - Overconfidence may lead you to take larger positions, abandon risk management strategies, or ignore market signals. - A single unexpected move can erase gains and even wipe out your account. 2. Refusal to Admit Mistakes Pride can prevent traders from accepting when a trade idea is wrong. This often results in: - Holding onto losing trades longer than necessary. - Averaging down into bad positions, magnifying losses. - Ignoring stop-loss levels because of a belief that the market will "come back." 3. Chasing "Revenge Trades" After a loss, pride might push you to recover your losses immediately by doubling down on risk. Revenge trading is driven by emotions rather than logic, often leading to bigger losses. 4. Ignoring the Bigger Picture Pride can blind traders to critical market realities. Instead of adapting to changing conditions, they stubbornly cling to outdated strategies or refuse to learn from others. How to Keep Pride in Check 1. Treat Every Trade as a Probability Game The market doesn't owe you anything, and no strategy guarantees success. Every trade involves risk, and outcomes are influenced by factors beyond your control. - Focus on executing your strategy consistently rather than trying to "win." - Acknowledge that losses are a natural part of trading. 2. Stick to a Risk Management Plan Pride can tempt you to exceed your risk limits. Combat this by: - Using fixed position sizes relative to your account balance. - Setting stop-loss levels for every trade and respecting them. 3. Practice Continuous Learning Markets evolve, and so should you. Humility keeps you open to learning new strategies, techniques, and perspectives. - Analyze your trades, both wins and losses, to identify areas for improvement. - Seek mentorship or study market history to gain broader insights. 4. Detach Emotionally from Trades Acknowledge that a single trade doesn't define you as a trader. - Avoid tying your self-worth to your trading results. - Focus on the long-term process rather than short-term outcomes. Conclusion Pride is one of the most dangerous emotions a trader can harbor. It clouds judgment, promotes reckless behavior, and blinds you to market realities. Trading is not about proving you're right—it's about staying disciplined, managing risk, and adapting to ever-changing conditions. Remember, humility is your greatest ally in the market. Stay grounded, respect the risks, and you'll be better equipped to navigate the ups and downs of trading without falling victim to the perils of pride. Pro Tip: Write this on a sticky note and place it near your trading screen: "The market is always right. My job is to listen, adapt, and act accordingly."
BINANCE:BTCUSDEducation
by Mihai_Iacob
2
BTCUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS (READ CAPTION)hello my fellow traders, what do you think about btcusd kindly share your opinion in the comment section. current price: 107500 after hitting all time high a strong bearish pullback is possible. market will retrace back upto 103600 then it will use this position as a support zone to go further high. currently market's target is 103600 which is our demand zone. key points: demand zone: 103600 retracement area: 107500, 108000 kindly like, comment and follow. thanks for supporting me
CRYPTO:BTCUSDShort
by Ibrahim_Gold_Traders
2
SELL BTCUSD for bullish trend reversal STOP LOSS : 112,491SELL BTCUSD for bullish trend reversal STOP LOSS : 112,491 Regular Bearish Divergence In case of Regular Bearish Divergence: * The Indicator shows Lower Highs * Actual Market Price shows Higher Highs We can see a strong divergence on the MACD already and There is a strong trend reversal on the daily time frame chart..... The daily time frame is showing strength of trend reversal from this level resistance so we are looking for the trend reversal and correction push from here ..... TAKE PROFIT : take profit will be when the trend comes to an end, feel from to send me a direct DM if you have any question about take profit or anything Remember to risk only what you are comfortable with…….trading with the trend, patient and good risk management is the key to success here ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
BINANCE:BTCUSDShort
by BALE_FX
Bitcoin (BTC): Crypto Cycles / Are We In Bullish One?Well, the last time we took a bigger look at bitcoins cycles was exactly a year ago and so far almost everything has been playing out well; halving is done and we are in the beginning phase of the bullish market, as it seems. But one thing concerns us: we did not have a proper reaccumulation phase on the coin, whereas we did have a proper expansion phase and a quick start of bullish market. Now this seems a little bit off so we are keeping our curiosity at a possible quick liquidity movement to happen (due to lack of reaccumilation phase). But keep in mind that every cycle is different and so is this one. Stay safe and don't be greedy!! Swallow Team
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by SwallowAcademy
1
30% correction to 70k next for Bitcoin ?? — December 3rd, 2024** short term forecast, days and weeks ahead ** On the above weekly chart price action leaps up 40% since all of 30 days ago. A number of reasons now exist for a bearish outlook. The include: 1) Price action and RSI support breakouts. 2) Regular bearish divergence. Multiple oscillators now print lower highs with higher highs in price action. 3) Price action is outside Bollinger Band on the weekly. Remember 95% of all price action trades around the mean, which is currently $70.2k 4) Hanging man candle print. A perfect example of buyer exhaustion. What does this means for alt tokens? That depends. Overbought tokens (XRP, Dogecoin, XLM, etc… ) they will join the correction with Bitcoin. A select few will enjoy the liquidity that comes from them. Do you know which? Is it possible price action continues to rise? Sure. Is it probable? No. Ww
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by without_worries
42
Extrapolating previous cycle price action to predict the futureUsing the Indicator: 4-Year Cycles Cycle Analysis: Cycle 1 to Cycle 2 Changes: ATH increased from $1,160 to $19,676 (16.96x increase) Gain percentage dropped from 52,287.39% to 12,804.2% Loss percentage slightly improved from 86.9% to 83.11% Cycle 2 to Cycle 3 Changes: ATH increased from $19,676 to $68,979 (3.51x increase) Gain percentage dramatically dropped from 12,804.2% to 1,976.94% Loss percentage improved from 83.11% to 75.93% Projection for Cycle 4: Based on the observed pattern of diminishing returns and the logarithmic nature of Bitcoin's growth: Projected ATH: $242,000 to $275,000 (Calculated by applying the observed ATH increase factors) Projected Gain: Approximately 800-1200% (Continuing the trend of diminishing percentage gains) Projected Loss: Around 70-75% (Following the gradual improvement in loss mitigation) Each cycle shows a pattern of: Reduced percentage gains Slightly improved loss recovery Continued exponential growth in absolute ATH price ATH Calculation: Cycle 1 to Cycle 2 growth multiplier: $1,160 → $19,676 = 16.96x Cycle 2 to Cycle 3 growth multiplier: $19,676 → $68,979 = 3.51x Observed Growth Multiplier Trend: Cycle 1 to 2: 16.96x Cycle 2 to 3: 3.51x Projection Approach: Lower Bound Calculation: Previous ATH: $68,979 Multiplier: 3.51 (conservative) Lower target: $68,979 × 3.51 = $242,000 Upper Bound Calculation: Previous ATH: $68,979 Multiplier: 4.0 (slightly more optimistic) Upper target: $68,979 × 4.0 = $275,91 Gain Percentage Calculation: Cycle 1: 52,287.39% Cycle 2: 12,804.2% Cycle 3: 1,976.94% Observed Decline Pattern: Cycle 1 to 2: ~75% reduction in gain percentage Cycle 2 to 3: ~84% reduction in gain percentage Projected Gain Range: Lower bound: 600-800% Upper bound: 1000-1200% Loss Percentage Trend: Cycle 1: 86.9% Cycle 2: 83.11% Cycle 3: 75.93% Projected Loss: 70-75% (continuing the gradual improvement) Methodology Notes: Used geometric progression with decreasing multipliers Considered logarithmic growth pattern Accounted for diminishing returns observed in previous cycles Disclaimer: Ultimately, these projections are mathematical extrapolations based on historical data and should not be considered definitive predictions. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and unpredictable. This projection is based on historical patterns and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult financial professionals before making investment decisions.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by jpkxyz
BITCOIN: First red day, on DAY 3!Hello traders and thanks for your constant support, please do not forget to like and comment the idea, it's very helpful and supporting for my constant work and progress. Bitcoin, it's currently establishing a template of pump and dump that I really like and already traded many times in the past few years, on several instruments. There is a good chance to complete the full pattern of pump and dump during the upcoming days. But let's see the overall weekly situation to understand better the thesis behind. Let's start quickly to say that the current week is INSIDE the previous weekly high low, meaning that I do not see weekly higher time frames involve in this move, as well because today we don't have any major red news on calendar, I would consider a potential short entry only an intraday position. Monday is the opening range of the week, it triggered HOD and LOD levels, closing in breakout short, inside the previous weekly high low range, shorts traders were involved in this specific day. Tuesday the market dumped back down into the low of Monday, failing the attempt to break lower, still we have shorts involved and potentially now trapped into the low of the week. Wednesday, day 3 of the week, we can see a three days dump and pump completed in the week, shorts from Monday are stopped out and long breakout traders are in the market, but once the HOW has been reached, is really important to understand the behaviour of price on that level. Thursday, long traders attempt in three pushes to break higher, basically consolidating up high and closing the day down, as a first red day. Today, Friday, the market placed a lower low into the yesterday low of day (which it could represent a weakness in the market) and currently pumping up into the current high of day / most recent swing high in the market. THESIS: -Short: this is my main thesis right now, I would like to see the market consolidating up high into the current HOD, starting breaking down in NY session for either a session scalp pump and dump, targeting LOD, and eventually trailing to further levels as breakout level of Tuesday high (because breakout traders long entered the market without any retest of that area), eventually closing of Tuesday and as well low of Wednesday, all these level can be very reactive. - Long: as always, I'm not here to make forecasting or prediction, but I'm only looking for setups in specific templates that play out over and over again. Bitcoin can still keep breaking higher giving a long trade back to the HOW, where the beginning of the dump started. In the next update, I will be showing the intraday overview.
PEPPERSTONE:BTCUSDShort
by GianniPichichero
1
BITCOIN - Time to buy again!As you can see, the price is in an ascending triangle, which could lead to significant growth after the breakout. Give me some energy !! ✨We spend hours finding potential opportunities and writing useful ideas, we would be happy if you support us. Best regards CobraVanguard.💚 _ _ _ _ __ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ ✅Thank you, and for more ideas, hit ❤️Like❤️ and 🌟Follow🌟! ⚠️Things can change... The markets are always changing and even with all these signals, the market changes tend to be strong and fast!!
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by CobraVanguard
4
Building a massive short up to 55k We are seeing a similar pattern to the 2020-2021 bull run, but this time under different circumstances and with Bitcoin at a much higher price. Over the years, Bitcoin has significantly outperformed benchmarks like the S&P 500, which continues to attract both institutional and retail investors. Previously, we experienced a correction from $60K to $30K. Now, we’re observing a correction from approximately $100K to $50K. These are rough estimates, but the trend appears consistent. In my opinion, based on the past eight years of observing Bitcoin charts (though not daily), the market often feels manipulated. This is likely due to Bitcoin’s relatively smaller market cap compared to other asset classes like stocks, forex, or mega-cap stocks (e.g., FAANGM). Recently, we faced rejection from a falling wedge pattern on the ES, which is bearish. I had hoped that lower VIX levels would encourage portfolio managers to re-enter the market, but with the stock market holiday on Wednesday, the 25th, I anticipated heightened volatility and an additional correction of approximately 8-10%. I’m aware that hedge funds are engaging in “window dressing” as the year ends. Portfolio managers are likely to remain passive, avoiding risky trades that could jeopardize their year-end bonuses. As a result, we can expect a quieter market from their side. Along the way, we may see some “dead cat bounces,” but there’s no need to worry. I had hoped Bitcoin would maintain its upward trajectory, but putting emotions aside and analyzing objectively: VWAP is significantly below the current price. Fibonacci retracement suggests further downside. Awesome Oscillator (AO) and RSI indicate bearish momentum. Money flow is negative. A significant short wall has formed, and many positions have already been liquidated . Based on this, it seems likely that we’ll continue moving downward. I’ve included two additional charts in the comments below for further insights.
BINANCE:BTCUSDShort
by Risk_Adj_Return
4
bears in chargeCurrent Trend: The chart shows a recent downtrend, with the Bitcoin price falling from levels near $98,332 to around $95,000. Key Support and Resistance Levels: Resistance 1: $98,332 - This level has acted as resistance, where the price has unsuccessfully attempted to break out on several occasions. Support 1: $97,729 - A support level where the price has bounced off. Support 2: $96,167 - Another critical support level, where the price has also shown bounce. Support 3: $95,002 - The lowest support visible on the chart, where the price has recently bounced off. Descending Triangle: The chart shows a sideways triangle pattern, which is generally a trend continuation pattern. Trading Strategy: Entry at Support: If the price touches the support at $95,002. and shows signs of bouncing (possibly confirmed by an increase in volume or a bullish candlestick pattern), it could be a good entry point for a long position. Breakout Entry: We expect the price to break the sideways triangle pattern to the downside, this could be a sell signal. An increase in volume at this point would reinforce the signal. Stop Loss: Place a stop loss just above the highest resistance level at 98.332 to limit losses in case of an upward breakout. Risk Management: Risk/Reward Ratio: Make sure the potential reward is greater than the risk taken. Confirmation: It is always advisable to wait for confirmation through other technical indicators or fundamental analysis before taking a position.
CRYPTO:BTCUSDShort
by JAG_Trader
BTCUSD 12/20/2024Performance Recap (Previous Analysis from 10/8/2023): • Entry: 27,948 • Targets Achieved: o 63k (+127.81%) o 96k (+244.56%) • High Reached: 108k ________________________________________ BTC/USD Daily Chart Analysis Technical Analysis (Current Scenario): Chart Patterns: • Cup and Handle Formation: o Confirmed breakout signals bullish continuation. o Long-term uptrend reinforced. Indicators: • Golden Cross: The 50-day EMA has crossed above the 200-day EMA, signaling a bullish trend. • MACD: Firmly in bullish territory, confirming positive momentum. • Hammer Candlestick: Closed at support (around 92K), indicating potential reversal and entry point. Support and Resistance Levels: • Support: o 92K (key level tested multiple times). o 50-day EMA (current level). • Resistance: o None until the 310k target based on the Cup and Handle projection. ________________________________________ Target Analysis: • Cup and Handle Target: o Measured distance from the cup's bottom to its neckline. o Projected Target: 310k. • Timeline: o Historical reference to 2013–2017 suggests a 6–8 month timeline with minor pullbacks for additional entry opportunities. ________________________________________ Trade Setup: • Entry: 97,703.80 • Stop-Loss: 69,092.64 (-29.28%) • Target 1: 310k (+217.29%, 7.42 RR ratio). • Target 2: Use a trailing stop based on the 20-day EMA if price exceeds 310k Summary: BTC/USD has surged from 27K to 108k since the last analysis, forming a textbook Cup and Handle pattern, which has now broken out, confirming a bullish reversal and signaling a continuation of the long-term uptrend. Key indicators, including a Golden Cross between the 50-day and 200-day EMAs and a bullish MACD, support this momentum. Currently, BTC is bouncing around the 92K support level and holding above the 50-day EMA, which also acts as a support. The appearance of a Hammer candlestick at this level further solidifies the bullish case and sets the stage for a new long position. The measured move for the Cup and Handle pattern projects a target of 310k. Drawing from historical price behavior, this uptrend could unfold over the next 6–8 months, with minor pullbacks offering additional entry opportunities. This setup presents a strong technical case for continued upside, with a clear structure, supportive indicators, and a high-probability target.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by rudcharts
BTCUSD: 1W hasta la vista....BTCUSD run up appears to be coming to an end for this cycle. HMA on the lower time frame charts is acting as strong resistance at 103 k and 1W RSI shows obvious bearish divergence. BTCD is also looking like it is showing weakness after a slow 2 year uptrend and likely will start to make continued bearish moves down to upper 40% range in the long term. Once 92k BTC support breaks....then it will enter back into the yellow channel and ultimately trend to the bottom support in low 60's k again. I expect a bounce at the 60k level to some extent, and if that support level does not hold, then back into the 30s. Good luck traders!!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Ambassadorj
End of the Bitcoin JourneyAfter not posting for a long time, I finally returned to analyzing the market, namely the Bitcoin market. From the chart here we can see the end of Eliotte, namely stage 5 in the 1 week time frame, which means what? That's right, we are at the end of the Bitcoin bullrun. OK, I will explain a little about the chart that I made; First, Bitcoin at the end of this year will reach its highest point at $109k-$119k then will fall slowly but still in the $100k area. Second, Bitcoin will experience a fairly large decline to $60k- FWB:65K , why is that happening? as Bitcoin has a CME Bitcoin GAP in the $80k-$78k area. Third, Bitcoin will experience a very large decline in March-April 2025, namely it will touch a price of $43k-$45k, why is that happening? because Bitcoin is currently forming a pattern, namely Head and Shoulders, with a low position between $43k-$48k. What is next? OK, in my opinion, Bitcoin will hit $100k again in 2027, If; 1. Bitcoin support is strong in the $43k area 2. There is no Global Crisis. If either happens then Bitcoin will hit $10k again. How is that possible? Yep, we forgot something, namely the CME Bitcoin GAP which is in the $9.8k area. Maybe this is all I can say, and maybe I'll come back a few months from now. If you find my explanation useful, don't forget to leave a donation in my Binance account with ID: 36103837 to support my idea. I'll just end it here and say thank you.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Afief_RQ
BTC: Bullish Weekly Trend, But Daily Chart CautionsKey Observations: - Weekly candles forming higher highs and higher lows, indicating a bullish trend. - Currently testing weekly bottom support. - However Daily chart showing trend and EMA reversal, suggesting a potential short-term correction. Dilemma: - Should we buy now, given the bullish weekly trend? - OR wait for daily EMA reversal off weekly EMA? Possible solution is to watchout: - for a break of the previous week's low may provide clarity. - Alternatively, if the price holds above the previous low, to rally to 104k. Trading Idea: - Consider playing the 94k-104k range for a potential bounce. - Alternatively, wait for a daily EMA reversal before entering a long position. What are your thoughts?
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by JKReddyLin