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BTC: neutral case analysisBITFINEX:BTCUSD Hello Based on last 3 bull cycles and bear cycles, I did some calculations and this pattern is the result of it. Take it with a pinch of salt, this might not even be close, but just past data gives me this fractal. Here are the peak Bitcoin (BTC) prices for the years you mentioned: 2013: $1,156 2017: $19,497 2021: $67,566 We can now treat these as the values of the quadratic function: a=1156 (for year 2013) b=19497 (for year 2017) c=67566 (for year 2021) However, to apply the formula: Price(x) = a⋅x2 + b⋅x + c Using a quadratic fit to the BTC peak prices in 2013, 2017, and 2021, we get the following estimated prices: 2017: $19,497 (matches actual) 2021: $67,566 (matches actual) 2025: $145,363 Above is the AI calculation, I think it is about right. Happy trading Cheers
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by MarathonToMoon
BTCUSD 4-Hour Chart Analysis: Range Bound with Bearish BiasFrom the 4 - hour chart of BTCUSD, the price movement shows obvious range - bound fluctuation characteristics 📊. Currently, it is necessary to focus on the key resistance and support zones 🎯: From a technical perspective, BTC is likely to oscillate repeatedly within the range in the near term 🔄, yet the overall trend leans bearish 🐻. In the short term, opportunities for buying low and selling high within the range can be monitored 📈📉 ⚡️⚡️⚡️ BTCUSD ⚡️⚡️⚡️ 🚀 Sell@106500 - 105500 🚀 TP 104500 - 103500 🚀 Buy@102500 - 103500 🚀 TP 104500 - 105500 Accurate signals are updated every day 📈 If you encounter any problems during trading, these signals can serve as your reliable guide 🧭 Feel free to refer to them! I sincerely hope they'll be of great help to you 🌟 👇
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Sovereign_11
BITCOIN'S BIG BOUNCEBitcoin’s daily chart shows a textbook liquidity sweep followed by a strong recovery. After dipping below the critical $100,000 psychological level late last week, price tagged a low around $99,000 before reversing sharply. This move likely shook out overleveraged longs and trapped breakout shorts – setting the stage for a high-volume bounce. Importantly, BTC reclaimed both the $100,716 horizontal support and the 50-day moving average – signaling renewed short-term bullish momentum. Currently, Bitcoin is trading just below the key resistance level at $105,787 – a price zone that has repeatedly acted as a ceiling throughout June. A decisive breakout and close above this level would likely open the door to a move toward the $112,000 range highs. Until then, $105,787 remains the level to beat. If price rejects from here, the $100K zone becomes crucial once again – with $92,817 as the next major support below. Volume has been supportive on the bounce, suggesting real demand stepped in on the sweep of the lows. For bulls to maintain control, they’ll want to see continued strength above the 50-day moving average and a clear break of resistance. For now, the structure looks constructive – but the next couple of daily closes will determine whether this was just a relief rally or the start of a broader continuation higher. We are basically trading between two key levels in a small range.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by ScottMelker
1
Bitcoin to under 1000 by mid 2026Three drives of bearish divergence, proof of diminishing returns cycle once again, proving that next cycles diminished returns will not even break new highs after the bear marker...if there even is a next cycle... which I doubt will occur since the only appeal of bitcoin is to get rich quick and once it loses that then its over. Anyway, i would call for zero but i doubt that occurs right away, probably get some diehard delusional cultists buying down there stopping it from going right away, maybe bounces around a bit afterward but the destination ultimately is zero.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by MikeMM
1
BTC wait for Long Bitcoin continues to struggle with its long-term weekly resistance. In the short term, it’s likely that BTC will consolidate within the $100,000–$112,000 range. Positioning heavily into altcoins during this phase may not be ideal. It’s more prudent to wait for either a confirmed breakout above weekly resistance or a pullback toward the $94,000–$92,000 support zone. For now, the focus remains on short-term trading opportunities within this range. A potential long setup is outlined in the chart. Disclaimer: This analysis is based on my personnal views and is not a financial advice. Risk is under your control.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by evasivesteering
4
BTC Short-Term Reversal Possible from Key Support Zone – BullishBitcoin (BTC) is currently trading near a key horizontal support zone around $102,000, while still maintaining structure within a larger ascending channel pattern. After a period of consolidation and rejection from the channel resistance (near $110,000), price action appears to be attempting a bullish reversal from the lower channel boundary. Technical Indicators: BINANCE:BTCUSD Stochastic RSI (3,3,14,14) Entered the oversold zone and showing a bullish crossover, suggesting a potential short-term reversal or bounce. This crossover historically aligns with local price bottoms and upward momentum in BTC. MACD (12,26,9) The histogram is flattening and turning positive, and the MACD line is approaching a crossover above the signal line. This is a classic early bullish signal that may indicate growing buying pressure in the coming sessions. Chart Structure & Key Levels: BTC is still respecting the ascending channel since late 2024. The blue horizontal support near $102,000 has acted multiple times as a demand zone. A blue arrow is placed to suggest a likely bullish move from this key level toward the top of the channel. If support breaks down, the next strong horizontal support lies around $91,300. Conclusion (Short-Term Bias): Bullish signals from both momentum indicators support the idea of a short-term bounce or relief rally. For confirmation, traders should watch for a daily close above $103,000–$104,000, which may trigger further bullish continuation toward $107,000–$110,000. Risk remains if the price breaks below the ascending channel support; in such a case, downside targets are $97,000 and $91,300. Note: Traders may consider this as a "buy-the-dip" opportunity, but should wait for confirmation (e.g., bullish candle close, volume spike, or indicator confirmation) before entering. Proper risk management and stop-loss placement below the recent swing low are advised.
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by themiya17100
1
Bitcoin Targets $105K as Portfolio Share Soars But... The year 2025 is proving to be a watershed moment for Bitcoin. The world's premier cryptocurrency has solidified its position as the bedrock of digital asset portfolios, now accounting for nearly one-third of all holdings, a testament to its growing acceptance as a legitimate macro-asset. Yet, this rising dominance belies a fractured and complex market landscape. While institutional giants and sovereign wealth funds systematically increase their Bitcoin allocations, a counter-current is flowing through the retail sector, where investors are rotating into high-potential altcoins, spurred on by the promise of new investment vehicles. This bifurcation is unfolding against a backdrop of dramatic price swings, conflicting technical forecasts, and a potent mix of macroeconomic and geopolitical catalysts, painting a picture of a market at a pivotal crossroads. The headline statistic is striking: as of mid-2025, Bitcoin's share in investor crypto portfolios has climbed to nearly 31%, a significant increase from the previous year. This growth has persisted through months of volatility, including harrowing dips below the psychological $100,000 mark and powerful rallies reclaiming levels above $105,000. The market is being pulled in opposing directions. On one hand, bullish tailwinds are gathering force. A ceasefire in the Middle East has calmed geopolitical jitters, restoring appetite for risk assets. Simultaneously, hints from the U.S. Federal Reserve of a potential July interest rate cut have investors anticipating a surge of liquidity into the market. However, a sense of unease permeates the technical charts. Some analysts warn of a "final crash" still to come, drawing parallels to the market structure of 2021. On-chain analysis has identified the $97,000 to $98,000 range as a critical market pivot, a line in the sand that could determine the next major trend. Meanwhile, other models, like the Elliott Wave count, predict a corrective crash to as low as $94,000 before any new highs can be sustainably achieved. This is the story of Bitcoin in 2025: a maturing asset cementing its institutional role while navigating the turbulent waters of retail speculation, macroeconomic shifts, and its own volatile price cycles. The journey toward becoming a third of all crypto holdings has not been a straight line, but a dramatic tug-of-war that will define the future of the digital asset class. Part 1: The 31% Benchmark - Bitcoin's Ascendant Portfolio Dominance The steady climb of Bitcoin to nearly 31% of investor portfolios is the defining trend of 2025. This figure, a cornerstone of market analysis this year, underscores a profound shift in investor conviction. Through a period marked by six-figure price tags and gut-wrenching volatility, the average investor has not been scared away but has instead deepened their commitment to the original cryptocurrency. This suggests a maturing "buy the dip" mentality, where price corrections are increasingly viewed not as a crisis, but as an opportunity to accumulate a long-term store of value. The primary engine behind this trend is unmistakable: institutional adoption. The floodgates, first opened by the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs, have become a torrent of institutional capital in 2025. Sovereign wealth funds, major financial institutions, and public companies are now systematically accumulating Bitcoin, treating it as a core component of their treasury and investment strategies. Observations of institutional trading desks indicate this buying pressure from large-scale investors intensified in the first half of the year, even as retail activity showed signs of slowing. This institutional stamp of approval is reflected in the growing number of Bitcoins held in various corporate treasuries and exchange-traded funds. This institutional embrace of Bitcoin has been fueled by several factors. First, an increasingly innovation-friendly regulatory environment in the United States has provided the clarity that large, compliance-focused firms require. Second, Bitcoin’s performance has been undeniable. Following recent shifts in the political landscape, Bitcoin has outperformed many major global assets, including stocks, treasuries, and precious metals, solidifying its reputation as a powerful portfolio diversifier. This "flight to quality" within the crypto space has also created a distinct rotation story. As institutions fortify their Bitcoin positions, they appear to be de-risking by moving away from more speculative assets that were darlings of the previous cycle. The most notable casualty of this shift has been Solana. Once a high-flyer, Solana's narrative has "cooled" in 2025. Its portfolio weight among investors has seen a sharp decline since late 2024, as institutional capital pivots toward assets with perceived staying power and clearer narratives. While some analysts see this cooling phase as a potential accumulation opportunity before a new leg up, the dominant trend has been a rotation out of Solana and into the perceived safety of Bitcoin. Part 2: The Great Divide - A Tale of Two Investors The crypto market of 2025 is characterized by a stark divergence in strategy between its two main cohorts: institutional players and retail investors. While their actions collectively push Bitcoin's portfolio share higher, their underlying motivations and asset choices paint a picture of two different worlds. The Institutional Playbook: Slow, Steady, and Strategic For institutions, Bitcoin has become the undisputed king. Their approach is methodical and long-term, driven by a desire for a non-sovereign, inflation-resistant asset that acts as a hedge against macroeconomic instability. The attributes of scarcity, immutability, and portability are paramount in their decision-making. The advent of regulated products like spot ETFs has been a game-changer, providing a familiar and secure access ramp for deploying significant capital. These large players are not chasing the explosive 100x gains that define crypto lore. Instead, they seek sustained, risk-adjusted returns from an asset that is increasingly uncorrelated with traditional markets during times of stress. Their strategy is one of accumulation, and their exit from more volatile altcoins like Solana is a clear signal of a de-risking mandate. They are building foundational positions in the asset they view as "digital gold," positioning themselves for a future where Bitcoin is a standard component of diversified global portfolios. The Retail Rebellion: Chasing the Next Big Narrative In stark contrast, retail investors appear to be reducing their direct Bitcoin holdings. This is not necessarily a rejection of Bitcoin's value, but rather a strategic reallocation of capital toward what they perceive as the next frontier of high growth. Having witnessed Bitcoin's journey to a multi-trillion-dollar asset, many retail participants are now hunting for "the next Bitcoin"—assets with a lower market capitalization but a powerful, near-term catalyst that could trigger exponential gains. Part 3: The Analyst's Crystal Ball - Price Targets and Technical Tremors Navigating the Bitcoin market in 2025 requires a steady hand and a tolerance for conflicting signals. While macro-environmental factors are painting a bullish picture, technical and on-chain analyses are flashing cautionary signs, creating a tense equilibrium between hope and fear. The Bullish Case: A Confluence of Catalysts The bulls have strong reasons for optimism. A key level on every trader's chart is $105,000. This price is seen as a critical "trend switch"; a decisive break and hold above this zone would signal the end of the recent consolidation and the beginning of a new, powerful phase of the bull market. This optimism is underpinned by powerful external forces. First, the U.S. Federal Reserve has been signaling a potential interest rate cut as early as July. Historically, lower interest rates reduce the appeal of traditional yielding assets like bonds, pushing investors toward riskier, high-growth assets. This injection of liquidity into the financial system has often preceded significant rallies in Bitcoin, and the market is pricing in this possibility. Second, a significant de-escalation of geopolitical tensions has bolstered market confidence. The announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran caused an immediate and positive reaction in risk assets. Bitcoin surged past $105,000 on the news, demonstrating its sensitivity to global stability. During times of acute conflict, markets often experience a flight to safety, but when tensions ease, that capital flows back into assets like Bitcoin, which thrive on renewed risk appetite. The Bearish Counterpoint: Echoes of the Past and On-Chain Warnings Despite the bullish macro-outlook, clouds remain on the horizon. Some market commentators are warning that the current market is mirroring the patterns of 2021, suggesting that one "final crash" may be necessary to flush out leverage and establish a firm bottom before a sustainable move to new all-time highs. This thesis is supported by specific technical models. Proponents of Elliott Wave Theory, a method of analysis that posits markets move in predictable, repetitive wave patterns, suggest a significant correction is due. Some Elliott Wave counts predict a corrective move down to the $94,000 level, which would represent a substantial pullback from current prices. Such a move would be seen as a healthy, albeit painful, corrective wave before a final, explosive impulse higher. Adding weight to this cautious outlook is deep on-chain analysis. A close look at blockchain data pinpoints the $97,000 to $98,000 zone as the market's next true "pivot." This range represents a massive concentration of supply where a large volume of Bitcoin was previously acquired. This means a large cohort of investors has a cost basis in this zone. As the price approaches this level from below, it will likely meet significant selling pressure from investors looking to break even. A failure to decisively break through this wall of supply could trigger a sharp rejection and validate the bearish corrective scenarios. The Derivatives Dilemma: A Market in Flux Further complicating the picture is the state of the Bitcoin derivatives market. Reports indicate that futures buying activity has declined sharply, suggesting that the speculative fervor that often fuels rallies may be waning. This can be interpreted in two ways. The bearish view is that speculators are losing confidence, and the market lacks the momentum for a continued push higher. However, a more bullish interpretation is that the market is purging excessive leverage, creating a more stable foundation for a rally built on spot buying—the very kind of buying being done by institutions. This faltering derivatives activity, contrasted with strong institutional spot accumulation, could mean the current rally is in "stronger hands" than previous, more speculative-driven cycles. Part 4: The Broader Ecosystem - A Story of Diverging Fates The cross-currents shaping Bitcoin's trajectory are creating ripple effects across the entire crypto ecosystem, with the diverging fortunes of XRP and Solana serving as perfect case studies for the market's 2025 themes. Beyond the Majors: The Speculative Fringe As always, the crypto market maintains a speculative fringe. The emergence of assets like "BTC Bull Tokens" represents the high-leverage, high-risk plays that appear during bull markets. These instruments are designed to offer amplified returns on Bitcoin's price movements and attract the most risk-tolerant traders. Their existence underscores the full spectrum of the market—from sovereign wealth funds methodically buying Bitcoin for their treasuries to degens betting on leveraged tokens, the digital asset ecosystem remains a place of immense diversity and opportunity. Conclusion: Bitcoin's Maturation in a Fractured Market The year 2025 will be remembered as the year Bitcoin truly came of age as an institutional asset, firmly planting its flag and claiming one-third of the crypto investment landscape. This growing dominance, driven by the steady, strategic accumulation of the world's largest financial players, has provided a powerful anchor in a volatile market. Yet, this newfound maturity has not tamed the market's wild spirit. It has instead created a great divide. While institutions build their Bitcoin fortress, retail investors are on the hunt for the next narrative-driven explosion, pouring capital into assets like XRP with the hope of front-running a transformative ETF approval. The market is consequently balanced on a knife's edge. Bullish macroeconomic and geopolitical tailwinds are pushing for a breakout to new all-time highs beyond the pivotal $105,000 level. At the same time, technical and on-chain analyses warn of a potential final washout, a corrective crash to the mid-$90,000s that may be necessary to reset the market for a sustainable ascent. Bitcoin's path forward will be carved by the resolution of these opposing forces. Can the quiet, persistent demand from institutions absorb the selling pressure from short-term traders and navigate the technical resistance zones? Or will the speculative fervor and corrective patterns that have defined its past cycles pull it down once more before it can climb higher? Whatever the outcome, 2025 has made one thing clear: Bitcoin is no longer just a speculative digital curiosity. It is a global macro asset at the heart of a complex and evolving financial ecosystem, and its journey is far from over.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by bryandowningqln
June 23 Bitcoin Bybit chart analysisHello This is Bitcoin Guide. If you "follow" You can receive real-time movement paths and comment notifications on major sections. If my analysis was helpful, Please click the booster button at the bottom. This is the Bitcoin 30-minute chart. The Nasdaq seems to be rising without any problems, but Bitcoin is under pressure from the MACD dead cross on the weekly chart as it has been adjusted strongly over the weekend. Depending on the real-time situation, it seems advantageous to operate safely short-term trading or both-way trading this week. I created today's strategy based on the Nasdaq movement and the Tether dominance pattern. *One-way long position strategy when the red finger moves 1. $100,587.9 long position entry section / hand drop when the purple support line is broken 2. $103,953.8 long position target price / Good 2nd target price thereafter From the purple support line breakout, the weekly chart candle low point created this week is broken, so it is better to maintain it without breaking out from the long position position. If it breaks out, it can be pushed to the bottom -> 2nd section. The 1st section marked in the middle If it doesn't come down to the long entry point today It is a vertical rise section And the pink finger in the middle indicates the short-term target price -> additional long entry section And the Gap8 section was created at the top due to last week's movement I think it would be good to refer to it while trading. Up to this point, I ask that you simply use my analysis for reference and use I hope that you operate safely with principle trading and stop loss prices. Thank you.
BYBIT:BTCUSD.PLong
by BitCoinGuide