Just a quick word of WARNING for BITCOIN- Local resistanceEasy to see and understand line od resistance here.
This is trhe line of rejection from 2017 and could well pose a problem in the short term
Technically, PA has the ability to break through this line but we need to see if it does.
BITCOIN is at a crossroads and this is just one of about 3 things that stand in ts way.
As mentioned earlier today, we have crossed one major hurdle today, this is the next one.
Hold on tight Guys and Gals, things could get very interesting but, for now, my preferred move for BTC is to range across for a little longer and come back to this next month
Unless the next 8 days are a strong push above this line and then try and stay above it
BITCOIN trade ideas
Geopolitics, Markets & Real Strategy: It's No Longer Just About
We’re entering a new global phase. Politics, economics, and warfare no longer operate on separate tracks. What once was diplomacy is now turning into direct geopolitical tensions and strategic maneuvers that are reshaping global market behavior.
🧭 What’s happening?
China is stepping into the Gaza conflict
This breaks years of strategic neutrality in the Middle East.
It signals the start of a new indirect confrontation between China and the U.S.
Diplomacy is being replaced by displays of power
Global players are acting based on interests, not speeches.
This new phase is not just military—it’s financial, economic, and structural.
The U.S. is reacting through financial firepower
$16 billion in 20-year bonds were auctioned with exceptionally high yields.
Weak demand = rising concern over the U.S. deficit and debt sustainability.
📉 How are markets responding?
The Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 are falling—not due to earnings, but geopolitical risk pricing.
Bitcoin and gold are strengthening as alternative safe-haven assets.
Short-duration bonds (like SHY) are gaining favor for their capital protection.
💡 How are we responding?
We’re applying a 3-phase strategy, with strict discipline based on our 20-point checklist—covering technicals, fundamentals, and mental clarity:
🔒 Phase 1 – Capital Protection
Holding 30–40% in liquidity
Investing in BTC, gold (GLD), and short-term bonds (SHY)
🔥 Phase 2 – Tactical Attack
Only entering if at least 19 out of 20 checklist points are met
Buying CALLs on strong technical rebounds in solid names (MSFT, AMZN, TLT)
Using precise stop-losses and <1% risk per trade
🔭 Phase 3 – Post-Crisis Positioning
Accumulating in defensive sectors: energy, healthcare, defense, AI
Building a hybrid portfolio: resilience + growth
🧨 China’s Ace Up Its Sleeve
What few mention is that China doesn’t only hold political or military influence.
It holds a financial bomb in silence: over $770 billion in U.S. Treasury debt.
👉 If China were to start unloading that debt—accepting the losses as collateral damage—the consequences could be devastating:
Bond yields would spike; U.S. debt would become harder to sustain
Stocks and bond markets would plunge
A crisis of confidence in the U.S. economy could erupt
Global recession risk would skyrocket
In modern geopolitical chess, sometimes sacrificing a pawn is the strategy to threaten the king.
🎯 Final Takeaway
These are not times to trade on emotion.
These are times to trade with strategic vision, disciplined risk control, and mental strength.
And those who grasp this early… won’t just survive—they’ll dominate the new cycle.
💬 How are you positioning your portfolio in this new cycle?
📩 Want access to my full 20-point checklist or strategic breakdown? Drop a comment below.
Bitcoin could surprise with new ATHs- one of the more tricky analysis since technically BTC could be in a HTF downtrend so looking for very high upside targets is not the best idea
- that said, there are some interesting developments here:
1. PA has broken the very clear downtrend line
2. S/R flip just recently confirmed on the 4H time-frame suggests the bull strength is real
3. perhaps most importantly, Bitcoin has traded differently to US equities for the last couple of days with SPX heading sharply lower but Bitcoin not really following and even rallying (something unheard of until this year!)
It is too early to tell whether this is a new dynamic between the two and certainly far too early to say that Bitcoin has become a risk-off/alternative asset but with Trump fundamentally changing the flow of goods, services and most importantly capital it may be time to discard all the old, known asset correlations aside.
High conviction that Bitcoin heads to at least the 92k - 94k region. Possibility of a surprise run towards previous and perhaps even new ATHs is present and would be confirmed if Bitcoin starts holding the 95 - 96k level.
Ultimately, it is rather likely that the upcoming move is fake/nothing but a bear rally and lower prices are expected or at the very least it is unlikely upside PA for Bitcoin gets sustained in the long term UNTIL
.. as long as Solana is not trading below 80$, chances are we are still in a bear(ish) market.
118.75KMorning folks,
So, last time BTC was not able to show retracement that we've suggested. In fact by the end of the session, no reversal day was formed. It was some fake alarm. Our long-term 110K target has been completed, so monthly grabber has reached the minimum target.
But for now we see nothing to do. We consider no shorts. Market stands confidently around the top, without sharp drop back, it is not at overbought or at some strong resistance, so it could keep going higher. Next our upside target is 118.75K. So we could keep existed longs, just don't forget to manage stops.
If downside pullback still starts it might become good chance for long entry again. Market now is driven by rebalancing portfolios of big funds that have to sell US assets as they lost AAA rating. This explains why dollar is falling while yields are raising. This is not fast process and probably will last for some time more.
BTC/USD Facing Key Resistance – Watch for Daily Close ConfirmatiBitcoin is currently testing a critical resistance zone between 107,150 and 107,800, which has previously acted as a strong supply area. For the bullish trend to continue, we need to see a daily close above this resistance range.
Until a confirmed breakout occurs, the price is vulnerable to a pullback toward the rising trendline, which has been supporting the uptrend since April.
📌 Key Points:
Strong horizontal resistance at 107,150–107,800
Rising wedge structure could signal exhaustion
A daily candle close above 107,800 is required for further upside continuation
Failure to break this resistance increases the probability of a correction toward the ascending trendline support
This is a critical area to monitor for both breakout traders and those looking for potential short-term reversal setups.
The next push is expected to face strong resistance at 112,000The bull run has been ongoing since October 2023, and we are beginning to reach the final stages. This is the final push, likely a significant one, but there is strong long-term resistance and trends around the $115,000 mark. Altcoins are starting to gain momentum, but institutions are accumulating and absorbing new supplies, putting upward pressure on Bt prices. The U.S. dollar (DXY) is weak, making Bitcoin appear artificially high compared to alternative currencies, such as the Sterling and Euro, with a new all-time high roughly 15% away for GBP and only 2% for dollar.
The NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) is currently high, indicating that a significant proportion of holders are in profit, which places us in a state of greed. Short-term holders are selling their positions, while long-term holders continue to accumulate. However, this trend is likely to lose momentum in the next price increase, as long-term holders may sell to free up capital for a potential bear market.
Furthermore, inflation remains high, and retail investors are finding it challenging to invest, which makes it less likely that they will engage with Bitcoin at its current levels. This indicates that a period of enthusiasm among retail investors is less probable. Additionally, outflows from ETFs have been shown to quickly impact prices negatively.
Bitcoin is projected to continue its price discovery upwards, potentially reaching $112,000 and possibly even higher before fear sets in, leading to profit-taking, which could significantly affect the price. Many investors may perceive this as a peak and anticipate a subsequent bear market.
While this cycle could be different, I remain skeptical. I believe that what I term GOB (Greed, Overconfidence, and Belief), which is the opposite of FOMO, will come into play and lead to a market crash.
BITCOIN MASSIVE BREAKOUT|LONG|
✅BITCOIN is trading in an
Uptrend and the coin finally
Made a bullish breakout of
The previous ALL-TIME-HIGH
Of 109,200$ level which
Was a strong resistance
Level and the coin is now trading
Almost 3% above the previous ATH
Which reinforces our bullish bias
In a powerful way and after a
Potential pullback we are quite
Likely to see some further
Growth on Bitcoin
LONG🚀
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
BITCOIN - Time to buy again!If the price can break this downward channel, it could reach $100k again. In my opinion, the bearish cycle of the crypto market has ended, and from now on, prices will be bullish.
Give me some energy !!
✨We spend hours finding potential opportunities and writing useful ideas, we would be happy if you support us.
Best regards CobraVanguard.💚
_ _ _ _ __ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
✅Thank you, and for more ideas, hit ❤️Like❤️ and 🌟Follow🌟!
⚠️Things can change...
The markets are always changing and even with all these signals, the market changes tend to be strong and fast!!
BITCOIN - Time to buy again!Currently, BTC is forming an ascending triangle, indicating a potential price increase. It is anticipated that the price could rise, aligning with the projected price movement (AB=CD).
However, it is crucial to wait for the triangle to break before taking any action.
Stay Awesome , CobraVanguard
BTC/USD..4H CHART PATTERN..Here’s a structured trade plan based on me *BTCUSD SELL* entry:
### *Trade Plan: BTCUSD SELL @ 105,300*
*Risk-Reward Ratio:* ~1:2.5 (assuming stop loss at resistance)
#### *Key Levels:*
- *Entry:* *105,300*
- *Stop Loss (SL):* *107,300* (above resistance, ~1.9% risk)
- *Take Profit (TP):* *93,600* (~11.1% downside target)
#### *Risk Management:*
- *Risk per Trade:* Adjust position size so that a move to SL loses an amount im comfortable with (e.g., 1-2% of capital).
- *Leverage:* If trading with leverage, ensure it’s low enough to avoid liquidation (e.g., 3-5x for conservative plays).
#### *Additional Notes:*
1. *Confirmation:* Wait for bearish rejection (e.g., pinbar, RSI divergence) near *107,300* before entering.
2. *Partial Profit-Taking:* Consider closing 50% at *~99,500* (midway TP) and trailing SL for the rest.
3. *Market Context:* Monitor Bitcoin sentiment (ETF flows, macro news) as breaks above *107,300* could invalidate the setup.
*Alternative Scenario:*
- If price breaks *107,300, the bearish thesis weakens—watch for a retest-then-rally toward **110,000*.
Would you like help refining the setup or analyzing supporting indicators (e.g., RSI, volume)?
Bitcoin (BTC) Market Update – May 19, 2025📅 Bitcoin (BTC) Market Update – May 19, 2025
BTC is trading at $105,488 with a slight +0.0115% 24h uptick.
📊 Technical Snapshot:
• Price Range: $102,381 – $106,540 (Moderate volatility)
• Support: GETTEX:97K – $98.5K | Resistance: $110K – $115K
• Trend: Consolidation Phase – Awaiting breakout
🔗 On-Chain Highlights:
• 87% of supply in profit = Potential for sell pressure
• Accumulation increasing across wallet cohorts
• Improved investor sentiment
🧭 Fundamentals to Watch:
• Sharpe Ratio: 1.72 – High risk-adjusted returns
• ETF inflows rising = Institutional demand
• Macro Index flashing Buy signal
📈 BTC Price Outlook:
• Short-Term: $100K – $110K
• Mid-Term: $110K – $129K
• Long-Term: $174K – $462K 🚀
✅ Summary:
Bitcoin remains range-bound but shows strength in accumulation and fundamentals. Keep an eye on $110K resistance for a possible breakout.
#Bitcoin #BTC #CryptoAnalysis #SorooshX
Will BTC endure and continue to reach further highs?As we can see, the BTC price has broken the previous ATH and established a new one at $ 109,886, but here we have to see that we had a slight breakout and the price immediately returned below the previous peak. At this point, we should observe whether it will positively break out from the previous peak and whether it will stay above it so that it can gather energy for a strong move towards strong resistance at $ 130,000.
However, if we see a correction, it may first go down to $ 101,500, then we can see support at $ 96,000, and then we may have a drop to around $ 87,000.
When we look at the Stoch RSI indicator, we will see that despite the current increases, the indicator remains around the middle of the range, which could potentially give room for another upward move.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Timeframe: 4-HourCurrent Price: ~$108,120
Key Chart Elements:
🔹 BOS (Break of Structure):
Multiple BOS markers indicate continuation of bullish structure from late April onward.
Recent BOS near $107,000 confirms bullish momentum is active again after a brief consolidation.
🔹 CHoCH (Change of Character):
Initial CHoCH around $104,000 signals a trend reversal from previous downtrend to bullish structure.
Later CHoCH further confirms buyers taking control.
🔹 FVG (Fair Value Gaps):
Multiple FVG zones are marked below price (between ~$93,000 to ~$106,000).
These represent areas where price moved impulsively, possibly returning to fill gaps.
The most recent FVG (between ~$107,244 and ~$105,518) acted as a support zone on the current retracement.
🔹 Fibonacci Retracement:
Price bounced off between the 0.5 and 0.618 fib levels (~$107,000–$106,387), a typical reversal zone in a strong trend.
Current Setup & Projection:
Price has broken above resistance near $108,000, suggesting a bullish continuation.
Target zone projected at $113,634, supported by structure and volume breakout.
Strong bullish momentum is visible after the BOS, and the price retest of FVG confirms smart money accumulation.
Volume Analysis:
Noticeable volume spike with the most recent bullish breakout, supporting the continuation case.
No large bearish volume indicating supply absorption—bulls remain in control.
Summary:
Bitcoin has completed a successful breakout from consolidation with bullish confirmation through BOS, FVG support, and volume spike. As long as price holds above $107,000–$106,200, the target zone around $113,634 remains highly probable.
Trade Setup – BTC/USD (Bitcoin vs. U.S. Dollar)!📈
Current Price: $104,755
🔺 Pattern:
Descending Triangle Breakout + Retest Entry
Breakout from downtrend line followed by bullish retest at trendline confluence.
🛠️ Trade Levels:
Entry: ~$104,257 (marked by bullish candle & confluence zone)
Stop-Loss (SL): $103,706 (below structure & retest zone)
🎯 Targets:
TP1: $105,860 (resistance zone – green line)
TP2: $106,870 (major horizontal resistance)
🧠 Technical Highlights:
Clear descending trendline broken with retest at confluence of support.
Multiple breakout retest confirmations (yellow circles).
Risk/Reward is favorable (~1:2.5).
Strong previous bullish momentum and clean support zones.
📊 Bias:
Bullish above $104,200
Neutral/Bearish if price loses $103,700
Bitcoin: Precision Breakout in MotionBitcoin is moving steadily toward its next major target—step by step.
A breakout from a rare double inside Wyckoff structure, confirmed by a diamond continuation pattern, has put the bulls back in control. The technical roadmap points us toward the next key level at $108,600.
Let's meet there!
Bitcoin - Ready to run 15,000 points? Really?Date: 14-05-2025
#Bitcoin chart says that I am ready to run 15,000 points either way but what's on your mind?
Current Price: 102700
Mid-point: 103235.00
Upside: 109676.77, 113119.00, 116825.50 and 120532.00
Downside: 96805.59, 93351.00, 89644.50 and 85938.00
Support: 100260.18
Resistance: 106234.53
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 5-20 : Harami-InsideToday's pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ will stay somewhat FLAT in trading.
In this video, I go over the SPY/QQQ, Gold/Silver, and BTCUSD.
What I find interesting in today's video is the setup in BTCUSD - being very similar to the peak in late 2021 before the double-top in Bitcoin.
If my analysis is correct, we are moving into a type of final speculative phase (bullish) that will quickly transition into a type of breakdown move in the US/Global markets.
Gold should do very well once this move sets up and begins to drive the Risk/Hedge trade.
In the meantime, sit back and wait for this speculative move to phase out (top).
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver