Bitcoin at a Critical Crossroads: Breakout or Rejection?Hello everyone once again,
Let's take a general look at BTC. In this analysis, we will focus on indicator-based and general analysis rather than news-driven commentary.
At first glance, we can see that BTC has left behind a significant gap on the daily chart, which ranges between 85K-81K. This gap may need to be filled. Since this gap was formed in early November and has not yet been filled, it is likely that BTC will attempt to fill it if a healthy structure is established.
Before reaching this gap, BTC might take a small bounce around the 90K weekly EMA20 support to catch its breath. Now, let’s analyze the indicators.
Bollinger Bands:
4H Chart: BTC bounced without touching the lower band and is now testing the middle band. If BTC fails to break above this level, it could target 95,108 again. However, if it successfully breaks through this level with the support of MACD and RSI, the next target will be 98,914.
Daily Chart: Nothing significant to mention regarding Bollinger Bands.
Weekly Chart: BTC has not touched the middle band since 62K, and it still does not seem likely because RSI and MACD do not support such a move.
EMA Averages:
4H Chart: BTC has fallen below the EMA levels and remains in this zone. For an uptrend confirmation, BTC must first break above the EMA20 and EMA50 crossover level at 96,810. This level is crucial as it combines two moving averages. If BTC surpasses this level, the next resistance levels are 97,244 and 98,012.
Daily Chart: BTC attempted a false breakout at 98K but started pulling back. Currently, it is supported by EMA100 at 94K, which could serve as strong support in case of another pullback.
RSI:
4H Chart: RSI has turned upward, strongly supporting the uptrend.
Daily Chart: Initially moving towards a weak sell signal, it suddenly turned upward, supporting the uptrend. However, if selling pressure increases before the daily close, BTC could face a weak sell signal again.
Weekly Chart: RSI was in a negative trend but has now turned upward, supporting the uptrend.
MACD:
4H Chart: MACD has weakened its red candles, supporting the uptrend. However, a bit more consolidation would have been ideal. The reason is that while MACD is turning bullish, it is doing so with a weak buy signal, making it a less strong confirmation.
Daily Chart: Although things appear positive, MACD has not yet provided a full-strength buy signal, as the buying power is still weak. Even though MACD has flashed a strong buy signal, the green candles are not well-formed, and there has been little movement in the past three days. If the histogram bars grow along with buying power, the uptrend will be better supported.
Weekly Chart: After a strong sell signal, MACD is now showing an upward directional shift in line movement, but not yet in candle formation.
Summary for Those Short on Time:
General Outlook:
BTC has not yet filled the 85K-81K gap, but before doing so, it might bounce from the 90K weekly EMA20 support.
Bollinger Bands:
4H: BTC is testing the middle band. If it breaks, the target is 98,914; if it fails, it may drop to 95,108.
Weekly: BTC has not touched the middle band since 62K, and indicators do not yet support a move toward it.
EMA Averages:
4H: The EMA20-EMA50 crossover at 96,810 is a key resistance level. If broken, 97,244 and 98,012 could be the next targets.
Daily: BTC failed at 98K and is currently at EMA100 support (94K).
RSI:
4H: RSI supports the uptrend.
Daily: It turned upward from a weak sell signal, supporting the uptrend.
Weekly: RSI was bearish but has now turned upward.
MACD:
4H: Red candles are fading, but the support is not yet strong.
Daily: Strong buy signal, but buying power is still weak.
Weekly: After a strong sell signal, MACD is now shifting upward.
Conclusion:
Although there are some risks in the 4-hour chart, the daily chart shows that BTC’s uptrend is supported.
If BTC surpasses 98K, a stronger rally may occur.
If BTC faces resistance, 94K EMA100 support will be an important level to watch.
Thank you for reading! Please remember that your comments and likes encourage me to continue providing these analyses. Wishing you all profitable trades! 🚀
