BITCOIN trade ideas
CYCLE 4 | RSI Monthly TrendA quick post to cover Bitcoins Cycles with respect to the Monthly RSI.
We can see based on the monthly close RSI values, a descending trend where each consecutive peak for consecutive bitcoins cycles have reduced in magnitude (i.e. a lower low RSI value coinciding with the trend reversal points. This trend is also evident with monthly RSI low values.
Using trend lines (based on historic BTC behavior in the past), we can speculate what would not be abnormal monthly RSI behavior for this cycles (Cycle 4) top and the future bear market low.
Have a play with the interactive tools in the post to observe details more clearly.
I have also detailed Cycle 1-3 length from the bottom to the top, bear markets (top to bottom), halving's and each cycles Fib extensions for your reference.
For greater detail, reference the below companion post to this discussion.
BITCOIN - MOON CYCLE ANALYSIS - CryptoManiac101The chart shows Bitcoin's price action over time on a 4-hour timeframe, overlayed with moon phases (full moons and new moons). Here’s a quick analysis based on the visible data:
1. Moon Phases and Price Movement:
- Full Moons: The price tends to show upward momentum following full moons in several instances on the chart.
- New Moons: Downward or neutral trends often appear to coincide after new moons, though this is not always consistent.
2. Pattern Observations:
- The moon phases might align with local price tops or bottoms, suggesting potential psychological or cyclical effects in the market.
- This relationship is not strictly consistent, as some moon phases do not correlate directly with significant price changes.
3. General Price Trends:
- The chart shows a strong upward trend in the latter months (October-December), with some consolidation periods after peaks.
4. Potential Implications:
- If trading with moon phases, full moons could be monitored as potential entry points for upward price movements, while new moons might signal caution or possible pullbacks.
- Combining this observation with other technical indicators like RSI, moving averages, or support/resistance levels would improve reliability.
For even more fun, the red boxes on the chart symbolize periods of time we were in Mercury Retrograde.
Just FIY, this is for entertainment purposes and is not financial advice.
BTC Short-Term Bearish OutlookThe price appears to be forming Major Wave 5, which is part of Cyclical Wave 3 on the higher time frame. Currently, we anticipate the price is completing Wave , after which it is expected to move upward, breaking the recent high to form Wave of Wave 3. Following this, a corrective Wave 4 is likely to occur, targeting lower levels.
According to Elliott Wave theory, Wave 4 often retraces to the range of the prior Wave 4 of a lower degree in the recent structure. Based on this guideline, our potential targets are as follows:
Targets of wave :
1st target @87,358
2nd target @83,00
3rd target @78,900
Targets of wave 4:
1st taget @89,200
2nd target @83,485
3rd Taget @78,468
By El- Sayed Owaidy, CETA, CFTe
Founder of The Egyptian Academy for Elliot Wave “EAEW”
Bitcoin Punches 108k Bulls up Bears Down!Bitcoin www.tradingview.com has broke past $108K, and the next key resistance levels are $110K and $112K . The $110K zone acts as psychological resistance where profit-taking is expected, while $112K aligns with the 1.618 Fibonacci extension from the last breakout, a major target for traders watching harmonic patterns like AB=CD.
Key Indicators and Patterns
1. Bullish Flag Breakout: Bitcoin’s flag pattern breakout pushed prices with strong momentum.
2. MACD: A bullish crossover on the daily chart signals continuation potential.
3. RSI: At 74, momentum remains strong, though nearing overbought conditions
4. Volume Spike: Institutional buying has validated the breakout—big money moves faster than your ex on payday.
If Bitcoin clears $112K, the next target aligns near $120K-132k based on extended Fibonacci levels. For now, bulls are pounding the bears harder than a heavyweight boxer, and momentum indicators favor continued upside.
Congratulations to everyone for reaching this milestone—let’s stay focused and keep riding this bull like it owes us rent! Don't forget to follow to keep get daily updates!
Bitcoin entering positive short term momentumAs predicted bitcoin is following the cycle very closely. We have been building a position inside the November bearish short term momentum (green dots) and we are about to re entry bullish short term momentum as indicated by SMAX.
Probability levels are below 20 indicating we are later in the cycle and the delta is about to turn positive (bullish momentum)
Our trade is in good profit already as the fun is about to begin!
Will keep you updated!
BTC , Mother candle Breakout BTC is in Bullish momentum , Even though last 26 days was in sideways range making it a flag .
Monthly and weekly both are up.
5 Dec candle is significant in terms of volume and price is in the range of its high and low ( Daily).
MACD is in positive zone , RSI is above 60 signify momentum. if it breaks out expecting target up to 114000.
Open and Low of todays candle is same , only problem is volume, its less then average .
View is my own and not an investment advice but for learning purpose only .
short 107900 with tp at 100500 sound legit target it will go here easily and i think much more or bit more
but for no risk i take this legit target after the rally he just done its amazing
i not make stop loss in this scenario coz if he go to 110 000 i will had 1 lot and keep my target
if he go 115 000 same...no leverage if u have small balance then apply your RR
BTC_What do you think ?Is this a giant cup and handle ? If so, so that target is around 120.
The red-trendline, coincides with FIb level, and the vicinity of the cup and handle's target.
This shaded area is very critical.
Do you think the top is near ?
NFA
BTCUSD TRADE PLANThis is a very good setup in BTCUSD. This is forming a very good chart structure along with the support of moving average
Btc/Usd Bearish Monthly and Daily T_F
I except it to be bearish, that should be a pullback before the next bullish move
If it doesn't break out of the daily trend
That's a raising Wedge
My Analysis is base on the technical factors
Daily Analysis of Bitcoin – Issue 231The analyst believes that the price of { BTCUSD } will decrease in the next 24 hours. This prediction is based on quantitative analysis of the price trend.
Please note that the specified take-profit level does not imply a prediction that the price will reach that point. In this framework of analysis and trading, unlike the stop-loss, which is mandatory, setting a take-profit level is optional. Whether the price reaches the take-profit level or not is of no significance, as the results are calculated based on the start and end times. The take-profit level merely indicates the potential maximum price fluctuation within that time frame.
we need a breakout on trendline 1in the 4 hour chart I see we need a breakout from trend line 1 to take a new position on BTCUSD
Bitcoin Price Once Again Fly Bitcoin Price identifying Potential Trading Zones. To Buy Side.
Resistance Zone 198K Bitcoin Hits this Resistance Zone
Support Zone 98K If Bitcoin Drops in sell side Like 98K this Could Be Support Area if a Bitcoin Test To Support After Price Again Rise To the Resistance Zone.
If you are in Buy Trade keep Eye on the Resistance Zone 108K
Rate Share Your Idea What's Going On Thanks.
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Welcome to the Bitcoin Christmas PUMP!
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The 1D MACD Crossover just signaled on COINBASE:BTCUSD BTC 1 Day candle.
But that's not all. It's the type of crossover. Text book.
RSI just entering 70 area.
The last time the 1D MACD crossover happened, Bitcoin saw a 45% pump.
looks like it should go to just past new year. The big question is does it continue before taking a breather.....?
In fact, when using the last pump as a guide, it falls perfectly in line with the Fib levels and lands right around $150,000. (just my silly extrapolation. I'm sure it's nothing. ;)
BTCUSD The Target Is DOWN! SELL!
My dear subscribers,
BTCUSD looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details:
The market is trading on 10158 pivot level.
Bias - Bearish
My Stop Loss - 10289
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bearish continuation.
Target - 99100
About Used Indicators:
The average true range (ATR) plays an important role in 'Supertrend' as the indicator uses ATR to calculate its value. The ATR indicator signals the degree of price volatility.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
BITCOIN WYCKOFF accumulationscenariocast!
IF that is what is occuring ... the #BTC price over the next few months could follow something similar to what I have drawn in a #Wyckoff re-accumulation range and breakout.
With the recent price action being a false breakdown before recapturing the range and proceeding to reach previous levels of resistance.
Let's see if this occurs, sentiment reached rock bottom last week.
SO I would not be surprised!
$BTC Looks bullish and ready for more ATHs - LONGCRYPTOCAP:BTC Bullish engulfing on prev 4H close, $107,461 given resistance in effect, Key support at $103,093, $104,987 support yet to be tested. Looks great on 1D, more ATHs to come, $107,857 latest ATH closed with a wick at given resistance $107,461 and testing.
Prediction : Next key resistance areas could be $110,423, $112,255-$112,893, $114,674, $116,908, $119,756.
BTC is not doneWe all see what we want to see on the charts.
However, this does not change the fact that we are in a bull market and the potential for BTC to go up is always a better gamble .
Are we in for a 27% Correction?Recognition of Previous Mistake (Rising Wedge vs. Ascending Channel)
Recent price action has revealed a shift in the structure. In my previous technical analysis I identified as a rising wedge. Upon breaking out of the rising wedge and further review, it now appears that Bitcoin is trading within an ascending channel. This structural adjustment suggests that while the market remains in a bullish trajectory overall, there are signs of weakening momentum, warranting a bearish outlook in the near future.
**Read In full to get historical validations to validate my theory**
Key Factors Supporting a Bearish Bias
Bearish Divergence on Weekly Time Frame
On the higher time frame, bearish divergence is evident, as price continues to make higher highs while key momentum indicators, such as the RSI, make lower highs. This divergence suggests that the current uptrend is losing strength, increasing the likelihood of a reversal.
Bearish Divergence on Daily Time Frame
A similar pattern is observed on the daily time frame, providing further evidence of weakening momentum. Combining divergences on both time frames strengthens the bearish case, as it highlights misalignment between price action and underlying market strength.
Loss of Momentum Within an Ascending Channel
Price is currently constrained within an ascending channel. While this structure supports the continuation of the uptrend in the short term, it often signals a gradual loss of momentum, especially when combined with other bearish signals. Breakout scenarios typically favor the downside in such cases, aligning with the broader bearish outlook.
Stochastic RSI Analysis
Weekly Time Frame:
The stochastic RSI is in the overbought region, and a bearish crossover (K-line crossing below the D-line) has occurred. This signal further strengthens the probability of a reversal or significant correction from current levels. Overbought conditions on higher time frames are particularly significant as they indicate market exhaustion.
Daily Time Frame:
The stochastic RSI has not yet reached overbought levels, suggesting that the price has some room to move higher in the short term before a bearish reversal materializes. This indicates that patience is warranted before entering a short trade.
Historical Validation
Historical analysis of similar scenarios (March and July) reinforces the reliability of the current bearish setup:
In both instances, price was constrained within an ascending channel.
Bearish divergences were present on both weekly and daily time frames.
The stochastic RSI aligned with bearish crossovers on the weekly and daily charts, signaling strong entry points for downside trades.
Current Market Outlook
Based on the above analysis, the bearish bias is supported by the following:
Loss of momentum within the ascending channel.
Bearish divergence on both weekly and daily time frames.
Overbought stochastic RSI on the weekly chart, with a pending overbought signal on the daily.
While the bearish setup appears robust, caution is advised as the daily stochastic RSI suggests that Bitcoin could see additional upside in the short term before the anticipated correction takes place.
My Trading Plan
Wait for Confirmation:
Monitor the daily stochastic RSI and wait for it to reach the overbought region, followed by a bearish crossover (K-line crossing below the D-line). This will serve as an ideal signal to enter a short trade.
Key Levels to Watch:
Channel Resistance: Watch for price rejection near the upper boundary of the ascending channel, which would reinforce bearish momentum.
Channel Support: A confirmed breakdown below the lower boundary of the ascending channel would act as a trigger for a bearish continuation.
BITCOIN RSI The chart of bitcoin Is giving a Clear WARNING signal . Best of Trades WAVETIMER BTW I AM LONG PUTS IN BITI as of today at 60.8
2024-12-16 - priceactiontds - daily update - bitcoinGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Clear channel upwards and we will likely hit 110k over the next days. The channel is wide enough to trade in both directions. Once market breaks below the closes bull trend line and the 4h 20ema, a short is the much bitter trade from a r:r perspective.
current market cycle: Still a bull trend as long as above 94000.
key levels: 94000 - 110.000
bull case: Bulls got another strong move up that began last Tuesday. It’s pointing to my measured move target 110k and I highly doubt bulls can get it much above that. But I also have a tendency to underestimate these bubbles. We can clearly see two legs up already and a third could get us there.
Invalidation is below 94000.
bear case: Bears see the broad bull channel and selling new highs was profitable over the past 4 weeks. They see the next bull wedge which can break down over the next 2-3 days and they hope for another deep pullback to 98k or lower.
Invalidation is above 110.000.
short term: Bulls are in control but I have no interest in buying this. Once the bull wedge breaks down and we trade below the 4h 20ema, I will think about shorts for 98k-100k.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-15: Will write a new outlook for 2025 over the weekend.
current swing trade : Nope
trade of the day: Shorting above 101k continues to be profitable.
New update Bitcoin Bitcoin hit a record high of $106,533, fueled by speculation about a U.S. bitcoin reserve. It has surged over 50% since November 5, with a market cap surpassing $3.8 trillion and a 136% rise in 2024.
Bitcoin reached a record high above $107,000. MicroStrategy purchased 15,350 BTC, now holding 439,000 BTC valued over $46 billion. Riot acquired 667 BTC, raising its total to 17,149 BTC.
Bitcoin reached $106,500, now at $104,500, with a market cap of $2.07 trillion, accounting for 54% of the market. Analysts aim for $130,000, highlighting the need for support above $100,000
