โฟitcoin: SetbackBitcoin has come under selling pressure in recent hours. We cannot rule out that a deeper dip may precede the next leg higher into the upper blue Target Zone between $117,553 and $130,891. Once green wave B concludes in this range, we anticipate a wave C decline into the lower blue Target Zone between $62,395 and $51,323 to complete the larger orange wave a. From there, a corrective rally in orange wave b is expected, which should set the stage for a final leg lower to finalize blue wave (ii). Meanwhile, weโre still monitoring the alternative scenario (30% probability), in which blue wave alt.(i) is still in progress. In this case, BTC would stage an immediate breakout above resistance at $130,891.
๐ Over 190 precise analyses, clear entry points, and defined Target Zones - that's what we do.
BITCOIN trade ideas
Bitcoin - The Elevated Cycle and the Silence Before Powell.โข
โ BTC/USD โ Bitstamp โ (CHART: 1M) โ (June 18, 2025).
โ Analysis Price: $104,044.00
โข
โจ I. Temporal Axis โ Strategic Interval โ (1M):
โฆ EMA90 โ ($39,909.00):
โด Rising steadily, serving as long-cycle structural support since 2020;
โด Price remains well above this average, with no signs of downward pressure;
โด The positive slope confirms ongoing bullish macro structure.
โด๏ธ Conclusion: EMA90 holds the foundational base of the long-term uptrend with ample buffer.
โข
โฆ SMA50 โ ($48,924.00):
โด Key axis of mid-to-long-term structure, validated by multiple touches during 2022โ2023;
โด Current price distance suggests technical room for retracement;
โด Still rising with no sign of flattening or decay.
โด๏ธ Conclusion: SMA50 confirms trend integrity, though overextension calls for caution.
โข
โฆ Ichimoku (Kumo & Lines) โ (85,434 | 68,378 | 104,044 | 76,906 | 63,740):
โด Price remains well above the Kumo cloud โ full bullish confirmation;
โด Tenkan and Kijun are aligned in bullish configuration, widely spread;
โด Future cloud projects bullish momentum continuation.
โด๏ธ Conclusion: Complete Ichimoku structure signals dominant cycle strength.
โข
โฆ MACD (12,26,9) โ (2,344 | 16,426 | 14,083):
โด MACD line remains above the signal, maintaining a monthly buy signal;
โด Histogram shows mild expansion, but slower than previous bull cycles;
โด Momentum is positive but decelerating.
โด๏ธ Conclusion: Momentum remains intact, but peak cycle force may have passed.
โข
โฆ RSI (14) โ (68.82 | MA: 67.35):
โด RSI approaching overbought threshold, hovering near 70;
โด Momentum is firm but shows resistance to further extension;
โด Historical comparison to 2020 suggests possible ignition or exhaustion point.
โด๏ธ Conclusion: RSI signals potential tension zone - breakout or reversal ahead.
โข
โฆ VPT (14,8) โ (100):
โด Volume Price Trend has plateaued at its max threshold;
โด Lack of new highs despite price advance suggests fading directional volume;
โด Often a signal of accumulation slowdown or redistribution.
โด๏ธ Conclusion: Buyer strength may be waning beneath the surface.
โข
๐ Strategic Insight - Technical Oracle:
โด Market structure remains bullish across all core indicators;
โด Overextension from key moving averages and flattening momentum call for tactical caution;
โด Any macroeconomic pressure could trigger a local top, without compromising the broader trend.
โข
โซ II. On-Chain Intelligence โ (Source: CryptoQuant):
โฆ Realized Price & LTH โ ($47,000):
โด Market price is well above the realized price baseline;
โด Indicates majority of holders are in profit โ structurally bullish;
โด However, this also creates a risk of profit-taking if confidence drops.
โด๏ธ Conclusion: Strong support floor, but latent pressure exists.
โข
โฆ SOPR - (Spent Output Profit Ratio) โ (1.013):
โด Above 1 means active profit-taking;
โด Downward slope shows this is starting to cool;
โด Critical to monitor for a break below 1 - would shift dynamic.
โด๏ธ Conclusion: Still healthy, but at the edge of distribution risk.
โข
โฆ NUPL โ (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) - (0.554):
โด Unrealized profit remains dominant;
โด Readings above 0.5 historically precede consolidation or pullbacks;
โด Still distant from euphoric tops, but entering alert zone.
โด๏ธ Conclusion: Market still in profit expansion phase - but under surveillance.
โข
โฆ MVRV - (STH vs LTH) โ (STH: 1.0 | LTH: 3.1 | Global: 2.2):
โด STH neutral, LTH moderately elevated but not excessive;
โด Market is mature, but not overheated;
โด Still in a zone that supports further upside with restraint.
โด๏ธ Conclusion: Healthy balance between holders - no imminent top confirmed.
โข
โฆ CME Futures Open Interest:
โด Sharp rise in open interest across expiry horizons;
โด Sign of speculative leverage building;
โด Historically correlates with volatile price action post-FOMC or macro events.
โด๏ธ Conclusion: Liquidity pressure is rising - extreme caution warranted.
โข
๐ Strategic Insight - On-Chain Oracle:
โด On-chain structure mirrors technical signals - strong trend, but cautious undertone;
โด No major signs of reversal, but profit saturation could act as gravity if macro shocks occur;
โด Market is exposed, not exhausted.
โข
โง III. Contextvs MacroโGeopoliticvs โ Interflux Economicus:
โฆ Fed Chair Powell (Upcoming):
โด Powell speaks today (June 18); core expectation is rate hold;
โด Market bracing for hawkish tone: fewer projected cuts and emphasis on inflation resilience;
โด Historically, Bitcoin has reacted with -2% to -5% dips to hawkish FOMC tone.
โด๏ธ Conclusion: Macro tension peak. Powellโs tone may dictate the next 30-day candle.
โข
โ๏ธ ๐โ Magister Arcanvm โ Vox Primordialis!
โ๏ธ Wisdom begins in silence. Precision unfolds in strategy.
โข
โข
โ Codicillus Silentii โ Strategic Note:
โด The technicals are strong, the on-chain base is stable, and the macro setup is explosive;
โด This is a tension point, not a resolution point - silence before decision;
โด Precision now is not found in action, but in observation.
โข
โ Market Status:
โด๏ธ Position: " Cautiously Bullish. "
โด๏ธ Tactical Mode: Observation Priority โ No immediate entry without Powell clarity.
โข
BTC on the Daily: Bearish Structure Locked In?So, on the daily, price is in a clear bearish context.
PSAR is bearish
MLR < SMA < BB center
We're about to close below the 50MA
Price already broke below the Higher Lows trendline and the December 2024 top
At this point, it all depends on the macro situation and the FOMC tone tonight.
If the outcome is positive, there's a chance price rebounds.
If not, the chart looks ready to dive.
BTC/USD 3H CHART PATTERNThe BTC/USD 3-hour chart shows a bullish reversal forming from a higher low structure along a rising trendline, indicating increasing buyer strength. Price action has broken above the Ichimoku cloud and is now testing resistance levels, suggesting bullish momentum. The chart also highlights confluence with dynamic support from the 250 and 370-period DEMA indicators, adding to the strength of the uptrend. A breakout above current resistance may lead to continuation toward the marked target zones. Overall sentiment favors a bullish move with clear upside potential if momentum sustains and no major rejection occurs from the resistance zones.
Entry Point: 106,600
First Target: 110,360
Second Target: 112,000
BTC/USD H1 CHART ANNALSIS 18/6/2025
Trading Setup and Strategy Explanation:
Buy at:1042.000
Resistance at:103700
Important Note:
Resistance should be above the current price, not below. If 105,700 is below 106,800, it typically indicates support, not resistance.
**Corrected Interpretation:**
Here's how your setup likely looks:
- Buy Entry:** 104.200
Support (not resistance) 103700
Target 1:108.000
Target 2: 110.000
Level Type:
- 105,700 Support (Stop-loss zone)
- 104.200 Entry
- 10.7000Target 1
Trade Notes:
- If BTC holds above 104200, your long position is technically supported.
- A break below 105,700 might invalidate the bullish setup โ consider a stop-loss below that.
- Momentum toward 110Kโ112K is possible if the market breaks out of short-term consolidation or reacts positively to macro news.
**Strategy Preference:**
Would you like a chart or confirmation based on technical indicators (RSI, trendlines, volume, etc.)?
The Bitcoin Manipulation Trick - How They Lure You Into the Trap๐ Bitcoin spends more time in deep drawdowns than at its peaks. Historically, BTC has spent over 80% of its existence trading 80-90% below its all-time highs, yet people keep falling for the illusion of wealth.
๐ง Hereโs how the cycle works:
1๏ธโฃ They drive up the price to make it enticing for new buyers.
2๏ธโฃ You FOMO in at the highs, believing in the "next big wave."
3๏ธโฃ Then they crash it, wiping out weak holders.
4๏ธโฃ They keep it suppressed for years, forcing everyone out, via margin calls, financial strain, or sheer exhaustion.
5๏ธโฃ When enough have capitulated, they restart the cycle.
๐ Historical Evidence:
- 2013 Crash: Over 400 days down 80%+ before recovery.
- 2017 Crash: Nearly 3 years below 80% of ATH.
- 2021 Drop: More than a year stuck 75% below peak.
๐ If youโre buying now, be ready to:
โ Lose access to your money
โ Keep covering margins
โ Wait years for recovery, if it ever happens โฆ
They play the same trick, every time. If you donโt recognize it, youโre just another part of the cycle. ๐๐ฅ
INDEX:BTCUSD NASDAQ:MARA NASDAQ:COIN NASDAQ:TSLA TVC:GOLD TVC:SILVER NASDAQ:MSTR TVC:DXY NASDAQ:HOOD NYSE:CRCL
Bitcoin And The 50 MABitcoin continues to consolidate in a tight range just below the $112,000 resistance, with the price currently hovering around $104,600. The chart shows clear horizontal support at $105,787 and dynamic support from the 50-day moving average โ which has once again provided a modest bounce after being tested multiple times this month.
So far, the structure remains healthy but indecisive. BTC is printing a series of higher lows since the March bottom, but the repeated rejection near $112,000 raises the possibility of a developing lower high โ a potential early signal of waning bullish momentum if follow-through selling emerges. Volume is declining slightly, suggesting a wait-and-see mode as the market anticipates macro events like the Fed meeting.
Overall, until Bitcoin breaks above $112K with conviction or loses $105K and the 50 MA, this chop is likely to continue. Bulls want to see a clean breakout and strong candle close above resistance, while bears are watching for a break back below $100,718 to open up downside potential toward $92,817.
June 17 Bitcoin Bybit chart analysisHello
This is Bitcoin Guide.
It's been a while.
I took a break recently because the participation rate was not good.
Since it's been a while since I did an analysis, I did it in a short form,
I hope you enjoy it.
If you "follow"
You can receive real-time movement paths and comment notifications on major sections.
If my analysis was helpful,
Please click the booster button at the bottom.
Here is the Bitcoin 30-minute chart.
I created a strategy based on the possibility of sideways movement in Nasdaq and the rebound of Tether Dominance.
* When the blue finger moves,
It is a two-way neutral short->long switching strategy.
1. $106,792.2 short position entry point / stop loss price when orange resistance line is broken
2. $105,082.8 long position switching / stop loss price when green support line is broken
3. $107,579.9 long position 1st target -> Top 2nd target price
If it goes down from the current position,
Check the bottom section -> up to $103,194.3.
Please use my analysis as a reference only
I hope you operate safely with principle trading and stop loss price.
Thank you.
Bitcoin - Trend Shift Confirmed, Eyes on $102.8K LiquidityMarket Context
Bitcoin showed signs of exhaustion after a strong short-term rally within a clean upward channel on the 1H chart. Price action had been respecting the trend structure until a key deviation occurred near $108,500, where we saw an internal liquidity sweep that hinted at potential distribution.
Fake-Out Confirmation and Shift in Momentum
After taking out local highs around $108.5K, price failed to continue higher and instead reversed sharply, confirming the sweep as a classic fake-out. This kind of internal liquidity grab is typically used to trap breakout buyers before reversing and targeting previous lows.
Break of Structure and Channel Retest
The rising channel was broken convincingly, and price has now retested the underside of the channel, aligning with the 50% equilibrium of the entire high-to-low range. This reinforces the bearish bias and suggests the market has likely shifted from accumulation to distribution.
Downside Targets and Key Levels
Immediate support sits around $104.6K, which served as a consolidation base during the earlier run-up. If this level fails to hold, the next key target would be a sweep of the previous significant low at $102.8K. This area is marked as a point of interest and could offer a reaction or reversal.
Price Expectations and Trade Outlook
As long as price remains below the broken channel and under $107K, the bearish scenario remains in play. Iโm watching for bearish continuation into $104.6K first, and a potential full sweep toward $102.8K if that support fails.
Conclusion
The internal sweep followed by impulsive rejection, combined with a clear channel breakdown and retest, shifts the bias to bearish. A move into the $104.6K region seems probable, with a lower liquidity target at $102.8K in sight if downside pressure accelerates.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
___________________________________
Thanks for your support!
If you found this idea helpful or learned something new, drop a like ๐ and leave a comment, Iโd love to hear your thoughts! ๐
BTCUSD Analysis UpdateBTC/USD Analysis Update ๐
Bitcoin has rebounded successfully after touching the 103500 support level and is currently trading around 105500. However, the ongoing correction may continue to test the psychological support at the 100000 round number in the short term โ ๏ธ.
Key Points:
Support Bounce ๐ฏ: BTC found buying interest at 103500, in line with our previous strategic analysis.
Immediate Resistance ๐: The current rebound faces direct resistance near 106000 (200-hour moving average).
Downside Risk ๐: Failure to hold above 105000 could trigger another decline toward 100000.
Risk Management:
Long positions should set stop-loss below 103000 โ๏ธ.
Short entries may consider the 106000โ107000 range, targeting 102500 and 100000
โก๏ธโก๏ธโก๏ธ BTCUSD โก๏ธโก๏ธโก๏ธ
๐ Buy@ 102500 - 103500
๐ TP 106000 - 106500
๐ Sell@ 106000 - 106500
๐ TP 103500 - 101500
Accurate signals are updated every day ๐ If you encounter any problems during trading, these signals can serve as your reliable guide ๐งญ Feel free to refer to them! I sincerely hope they'll be of great help to you ๐ ๐
BTC Macro Analysisโ ๐๐. CRYPTOCAP:BTC macro analysis update...
๐ ๐๐ค๐ฃ๐ ๐ฉ๐๐ง๐ข outlook remains unchanged and recent price action is barely a blip on the weekly chart. SD+2 target is still $211k as a blow off top.
๐ ๐๐๐ค๐ง๐ฉ ๐ฉ๐๐ง๐ข outlook has investors looking lower towards the $92K target but this isn't guaranteed to be reached and price action may front those who wait.
War escalation's and retail selling are keeping price suppressed as price changes hands to private companies and large wallets.
The time for patience continues. Money is made in the sitting, weathering volatility, not flipping in and out of trades on every bit of news and price movement
๐๐๐๐๐ฃ๐๐๐๐ก ๐ผ๐ฃ๐๐ก๐ฎ๐จ๐๐จ
Price is consolidating under all time high resistance. Consolidation under resistance has high probability of breaking out, the longer it remains the higher the probability.
Elliot Wave (EW) analysis suggests a motif wave ended with the poke above all time high (per the EW rules), with a wave 2 retracement underway. Price remains above the daily pivot (bullish) but below the DEMA (bearish). A triangle could still be forming but this is not my preferred EW count.
Safe trading
Current BTC Trend Analysis and Trading RecommendationsThe daily candlestick chart of BTC shows a three - day consecutive bearish retracement, having fallen back to the vicinity of the starting point of the previous pinbar rebound and currently remaining in a recent low - level sideways consolidation zone. However, the 4 - hour trend is pressured by the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, staying within a downward channel and forming a rebound - retracement wave pattern.
For short - term strategies, anticipate a further retracement first. Long positions should be initiated only after the support level is confirmed valid. This retracement represents a necessary consolidation phase before the bullish trend continues, and the current adjustment range does not pose a substantial threat of trend reversal to the overall uptrend. With the core upward trend intact and the direction remaining clear, BTC is expected to resume its upward momentum after a brief consolidation. The operational approach remains to go long on retracements.
BTCUSD
buy@103500-104000
tp:105500-106500
Investment itself is not the source of risk; it is only when investment behavior escapes rational control that risks lie in wait. In the trading process, always bear in mind that restraining impulsiveness is the primary criterion for success. I share trading signals daily, and all signals have been accurate without error for a full month. Regardless of your past profits or losses, with my assistance, you have the hope to achieve a breakthrough in your investment.
BTC/USD Potential Bullish ReversalBTC/USD Potential Bullish Reversal ๐ข๐
๐ Technical Overview:
The chart shows a potential bullish reversal pattern forming near a key support zone. Price action has consistently bounced from the support range between $100,000 โ $103,700, marked by multiple higher lows (๐ orange circles), suggesting strong buyer interest.
๐ Key Levels:
Support Zone: $100,000 โ $103,700 ๐ก๏ธ
Immediate Resistance: $110,384 ๐ผ
Current Price: $105,202 ๐ฐ
๐ Pattern Observed:
The price structure shows a possible inverted head and shoulders pattern forming, with the right shoulder currently developing. If this structure completes and breaks the $106,000โ$107,000 neckline region, we can expect a bullish breakout toward the resistance target of $110,384 or higher.
๐ Bullish Confirmation:
Bullish rejection from support area โ
Clean structure with repeated higher lows ๐
Potential breakout arrow suggests move toward the top resistance zone
โ ๏ธ Watch For:
Price must hold above $103,700 to maintain bullish bias
Break below this level may invalidate bullish setup and retest the broader support zone near $100,000
๐ Conclusion:
BTC/USD is setting up for a potential upside breakout if the neckline is broken. Traders should monitor for bullish confirmation before entering long positions.
๐ Strategy Suggestion:
Buy Zone: $103,700 โ $104,500 (on bullish confirmation) ๐
Target Zone: $110,000 โ $111,000 ๐ฏ
Stop-Loss: Below $103,000 ๐
BITCOIN The secret trend-line that no one notices..Bitcoin (BTCUSD) was under heavy selling pressure yesterday and even the 1D time-frame turned marginally bearish. What most seem to ignore however is the larger picture. On the 1W time-frame, BTC has managed to close the last 5 weeks above the Pivot trend-line.
What that trend-line is? It is the level that initially started as a Resistance from December 09 2024 to January 27 2025, closing all 1W candles below it, despite occasional candle wicks breaking above it. That confirmed it's status as a Resistance at the time.
Now we see the opposite, five straight 1W candles closing above that Pivot line. Check in particular, how flat the last two 1W candles closed, showcasing no just the high volatility that the market is under in the past weeks, but also the same amount of sellers and buyers existing in the market (neutral).
This is an indication that this is a consolidation phase, preparing BTC for the next rally. If we place the top Fibonacci level (1.0) on that Pivot, we get the 2.0 Fib extension just above the $145000 mark. That gels perfectly with various other studies we've conducted showing a similar long-term Target.
So do you think the Pivot line will hold and push Bitcoin to $145k? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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๐ธ๐ธ๐ธ๐ธ๐ธ๐ธ
๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐
Bitcoin - Trend Shift Confirmed, Eyes on $102.8K LiquidityMarket Context
Bitcoin showed signs of exhaustion after a strong short-term rally within a clean upward channel on the 1H chart. Price action had been respecting the trend structure until a key deviation occurred near $108,500, where we saw an internal liquidity sweep that hinted at potential distribution.
Fake-Out Confirmation and Shift in Momentum
After taking out local highs around $108.5K, price failed to continue higher and instead reversed sharply, confirming the sweep as a classic fake-out. This kind of internal liquidity grab is typically used to trap breakout buyers before reversing and targeting previous lows.
Break of Structure and Channel Retest
The rising channel was broken convincingly, and price has now retested the underside of the channel, aligning with the 50% equilibrium of the entire high-to-low range. This reinforces the bearish bias and suggests the market has likely shifted from accumulation to distribution.
Downside Targets and Key Levels
Immediate support sits around $104.6K, which served as a consolidation base during the earlier run-up. If this level fails to hold, the next key target would be a sweep of the previous significant low at $102.8K. This area is marked as a point of interest and could offer a reaction or reversal.
Price Expectations and Trade Outlook
As long as price remains below the broken channel and under $107K, the bearish scenario remains in play. Iโm watching for bearish continuation into $104.6K first, and a potential full sweep toward $102.8K if that support fails.
Conclusion
The internal sweep followed by impulsive rejection, combined with a clear channel breakdown and retest, shifts the bias to bearish. A move into the $104.6K region seems probable, with a lower liquidity target at $102.8K in sight if downside pressure accelerates.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
___________________________________
Thanks for your support!
If you found this idea helpful or learned something new, drop a like ๐ and leave a comment, Iโd love to hear your thoughts! ๐
Bitcoin Bounced from a High-Volume Area at the 103,363 Support.FenzoFxโBitcoin dipped to $105,175, creating a bearish fair value gap that highlights selling pressure. Immediate support is at $103,463, backed by high volume, while resistance stands at $107,792. If support holds, BTC/USD could rise toward $112,000.
A drop below $102,185 may accelerate the downtrend toward $93,363, the previous monthly low.
BTCUSD Tests SupportโBuy for ReboundBTCUSD opened high and trended lower today ๐, now approaching the support zoneโtime to buy directly and ride the rebound! ๐
โก๏ธโก๏ธโก๏ธ BTCUSD โก๏ธโก๏ธโก๏ธ
๐ Buy@ 105000 - 105500
๐ TP 106000 - 107500
Accurate signals are updated every day ๐ If you encounter any problems during trading, these signals can serve as your reliable guide ๐งญ Feel free to refer to them! I sincerely hope they'll be of great help to you ๐ ๐