2 POTENTIAL BREAKOUT POSSIBLE... WHICH ONE IS GONNA BE I’m closely tracking two key resistance levels that could be the trigger point for the next big breakout in crypto:
Resistance 1: $94,000
Resistance 2: $104,000
Right now, the market is showing strong momentum and coiling up near these zones. These resistance levels act like "ceiling prices" — once broken, they often signal powerful upward moves as traders pile in.
📊 So, Which Level Is the Real Breakout Trigger?
Let’s break it down:
🔸 $104K — The Early Signal
This is the closer and more immediate resistance.
A breakout here could trigger a short-term rally, likely inviting aggressive buyers.
But beware: it might still be a fakeout if volume doesn’t support it.
🔸 $94K — The Confirmed Breakout
This is the major resistance, likely watched by institutional traders.
A clean breakout At the $94K with volume would be a strong confirmation of a broader bullish trend.
This level breaking could ignite the real FOMO wave across the market.
BITCOIN trade ideas
BITCOIN BULLISH TO $116,000 (UPDATE)Bitcoin has come very close to our $116,000 target, peaking at $112,000 just $4,000 away from our TP.
I still believe BTC prices will push higher for sure. But my only concern right now is will BTC have a huge correction ( Minor Wave 4) before it moves back up again? If it does then I'll most likely cash out my buy positions soon for my Crypto Fund investors, as we've already made decent profits & it is not worth holding on too much longer & risking it.
Bitcoin Long Term ProjectionI'm expecting bitcoin to keep dropping below $100k and possibly fluctuate between $103k down to $98k for a while eventually eventually taking out a point of liquidity around the $92.5k level which could provide a short term retracement back into the $100k levels.
Until the imbalance around the $87k level is tapped I don't see the possibility of Bitcoin making any new ATHs. Even if this imbalance is filled it could only provide short term bullish momentum which would continue to fuel the bears and continue to push the price into low $70k levels.
BITCOIN BULLISH TO $116,000 (UPDATE)Bitcoin has come very close to our $116,000 target, within the Crypto Fund for my investors. Price is currently retracing down after peaking at a new ATH of $111,000.
I'll be keeping an eye on market structure & deciding if I should close out early, or hold on a little longer. Always stay adapted to the markets!
Bitcoin Gann Cycle Projection: 2025 Top Near 0.75?This chart applies the Gann Square of 9 over the last three Bitcoin cycles, each normalized in both time and price using log scale.
🔹 Cycle Durations:
1st cycle: 1064 days
2nd cycle: 1064 days
Current (projected): 1064 days
🔹 Cycle Tops by Time Division (of full Gann square):
Cycle 1 top: ~0.125 (1/8)
Cycle 2 top: ~0.382 (between 0.382 and 0.5)
Current cycle (2025) is projected to top near 0.75 (3/4), which historically marks the later phases of Gann harmonic progression.
🔹 Price-Time Symmetry:
All three cycles align with the Gann square grid, showing how BTC tends to follow harmonic time levels:
0.125
0.25
0.382
0.5
0.618
0.75 (projected top)
🌀 This follows a 1 → 3 → 6 harmonic expansion sequence, reflecting Gann’s time geometry more than Fibonacci.
📅 Projected top timing: Around October 20, 2025
💰 Potential price zone: ~$124,000, intersecting Gann resistance at the 0.75 time level.
MEGAPHONE ALERT! BTC 1H Outlook🧩 Megaphone Formation (Broadening Wedge)
Volatility expanding inside a widening range
Price now testing the Fib cluster (0.66–0.618) between 105,568–105,987
RSI at 66.3, nearing overbought — pressure is building
Volume surging above 20-period MA → breakout imminent
🎯 Key Confluences:
Upper Bollinger Band: 105,950
Mid BB (Basis): 105,110
Lower BB: 104,342
55 SMA: 104,500
SL Zone (Invalidation): Above 106,500 (upper wick resistance)
🔻 Bearish Breakdown Scenario:
Loss of 105,100 and breakdown from lower wedge line
RSI drops < 45 + volume spike → hedge confirmation
Targets: 104,000 → 102,500
🔺 Bullish Breakout Scenario:
Close above 106,000–106,500 with volume
Targets: 107,800 → 108,900
Manage with trailing stops — things will be quick!
⚠️ Summary:
Megaphone = Volatility Bomb
Stay nimble. If BTC fails at this Fib zone, the breakdown will be fast and decisive. If it breaks out, bulls might squeeze higher but need volume to sustain it.
BTCUSD Breakdown Incoming? 4H Chart Flags Key Bearish Entry🔵 Entry Point (Sell Limit / Market Entry)
• Around $104,600 – $104,700
This area aligns with the retest of the descending trend line and a weak resistance zone. Price is reacting negatively after hitting this level.
🟥 Stop Loss
• $107,060
Placed just above the weak resistance. This protects the trade in case price breaks structure and invalidates the bearish setup.
🟩 Take Profit Targets
1. TP1: $101,818 (Support 1)
o First major support zone; price has bounced here previously.
2. TP2: $98,020 (Support 2)
o Deeper support and more aggressive target. Aligned with previous wick lows.
🔺 Chart Observations
• Trend Line: Still intact and respected. Price rejected it on the latest retest.
• Structure: Lower highs and lower lows show bearish momentum.
• Volume/Volatility: Tapering candles around resistance indicate weakening bullish attempts.
• Risk-to-Reward
o TP1 R:R ≈ 1.3:1
o TP2 R:R ≈ 2.5:1+
⚠️ Scalper Note
If you’re trading this as a scalp, consider securing partial profits at TP1 and moving SL to breakeven to protect gains. Volatility around macro events or news (like the red event icons near June 3–5) could trigger wicks.
Would you like me to add RSI, MACD, or EMA confluence to strengthen the setup further?
BTC Daily Liquidity LevelsBTC Daily Liquidity Levels. Powerful tool to help traders detect and estimate potential price levels where significant liquidation events might occur. By understanding and analyzing these levels, traders can uncover potential support and resistance areas, identify optimal stop-loss levels, and better grasp market sentiment along with possible zones of price volatility.
$BTC outlook, TOP or NOT?!Today someone said to me: Bitcoin is not performing well. And I open the charts and see it at almost ATH.
We barely missed the longterm target by less than 1% and we have a similar situation like in $SPY.
I have reasons to be bullish. I have a voice which is getting cautious, at least if we dont stay up this month. Worst case would be a drop under 90k, it would mark the top for a longer time in my eyes.
Against all the sayings 'its healthy if we go down, after we can have a rally', my opinion is: we should stay UP this month - then we can flash a longterm trend (until end of nov, a bit longer than AMEX:SPY ) and end up in a range from 155k to 260k.
Im just long spot and my capacity is maxed out for crypto (Im long BITSTAMP:ETHUSD and BITSTAMP:BTCUSD only),
IF we get a bullish continuation in weekly (which will be clear over next 2 weeks) I go trough NASDAQ:MSTR into more exposure, even if I hate the stock.
My outlook right now: if we can stay up this month we will probably get a nice rally and top end of year. I hope Im right.
best wishes for your trades and risk management, peace!
The Bitcoin “Big Short”: Whales Are Quietly Leaving the PartyBitcoin just broke $111,000. Headlines are celebrating. Retail is euphoric. But under the surface, on-chain data tells a very different story: wallets holding over $1,000,000 in BTC—commonly referred to as whales—are quietly exiting.
According to Glassnode, the number of $1M+ wallets has dropped by nearly 9% over the last 60 days, even as price soared to new highs. This isn't a coincidence. It's the classic distribution phase—whales cashing out while late-stage buyers, lured in by ETF hype and bullish momentum, absorb the risk.
Bloomberg Crypto reported this month that over $10 billion in BTC has been moved from cold storage to exchanges, much of it from long-dormant wallets and miner reserves. This pattern echoes what we saw before the 2021 crash—strategic selling into strength.
ETFs: Fuel and Trap
Spot Bitcoin ETFs were pitched as the final gateway to mass adoption. In reality, they’re a liquidity funnel. Retail investors pile in via retirement accounts and brokerages, buying exposure—but not the asset itself. Meanwhile, institutional whales sell BTC into these passive flows.
As Bloomberg’s ETF Weekly noted in May 2025, “The majority of ETF inflows are retail-led, while OTC desks are reporting increased large-lot sell requests.” It’s a perfect storm: passive inflows mask whale exits, and the average buyer is blind to what’s really happening on-chain.
On-Chain Red Flags
The blockchain doesn’t lie. Key warning signs are flashing:
$1M+ wallets falling: Down from ~139K to ~126K since March.
Exchange reserves rising: Indicating coins are being positioned for liquidation.
Long-term holder profit-taking: SOPR is above 1.6—profit margins not seen since the last major top.
Dormant coins awakening: Older UTXOs (2+ years) are being spent at the fastest rate since late 2021.
Even miners are capitulating. Miner-held balances are down 12% YTD, and transfer spikes suggest they're taking advantage of inflated prices to fund operations.
Why It Matters
This isn’t FUD. It’s math. When the most informed market participants offload supply into a leveraged, overextended retail-driven rally, the result is rarely soft. If BTC loses key support around $95K, the slide to $60K—or lower—could be violent and fast.
The chart may look bullish. But the blockchain shows distribution, not accumulation. The whales aren’t tweeting. They’re cashing out.
Retail is late to the party. The smart money is already gone.
Bitcoin Long: End of 3rd wave Over here, I broke down the waves for Bitcoin down to the minute level. Based on this, I think that Bitcoin has completed 3rd wave (or wave Y if you think this is just a correction). So now I think it is a good time to long with target at sub-wave 4 high of previous wave 3.
Good luck!
Market next move 1. Bearish Rejection Zone
The red box highlights a consolidation/resistance zone.
BTC is struggling to break and close above this area.
Multiple candle wicks into the zone suggest seller strength.
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📉 2. Volume Weakness
The recent upward candles show lower volume compared to the selling candles before it.
This indicates that the buying pressure may be weak, lacking momentum for a breakout.
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🕳️ 3. False Breakout Trap Risk
A fakeout above the resistance box is possible if big players trigger buy orders and then reverse the market, trapping retail traders.
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🟠 4. Bearish Divergence (if confirmed by RSI or MACD)
Without indicators shown, if momentum indicators like RSI/MACD display divergence (price up but momentum down), it’s a bearish signal.
BTC eyes on 104/105k: Near term retrace target that MUST hold Follow up to my bigger picture idea below.
We are retracing from the Genesis fib at 111.7k
It looks like to retest support below at 104/105k
Bulls MUST hold support or "top" will be the word.
.
BTC Big Picture that said WATCH OUT at 111.7k:
===========================================
.
Monthly Bearish Divergences Showing Up On a 5 Wave Impulse Move
Just like the 5 wave impulse for 2021's top, we have now entered into a 5th wave on the monthly chart. The issue is that we also have a monthly bearish divergence present on the chart. 2021 also had a monthly bearish divergence present. The first one that we saw was in January. We got a 30% correction off of that one. Now we have another monthly bearish divergence present on May's close today with a large selling wick.
This is not what you want to see. Of course, the market could just continue going up anyway, but these setups appearing on the monthly chart take a long time to happen. Even if we do go up a little bit more, it would be unwise to ignore this setup appearing on the chart. I am not recommending everyone take short positions, but I am currently short targeting first the 51-54k(wherever weekly 200 SMA will be when heading down) area with a likely retracement into the 80k area after that. Then heading towards a bear market low in 2026. I think we will see the 30k area, but that target is a bit less important than the current setup signaling down on the charts.
My short is on 2x leverage with 10% of my total capital even in the trade at a 98,446 average entry. I was an early bear so my entry reflects that. It won't matter at all if the 54k target hits. If we do go up from here, I will average the position once more after which it either liquidates or hits the 54k target. If we do begin playing down aggressively over the next few months, I will begin adding into the short on the way down. This is how you obtain a very favorable RR by being position sized small in a trade that is in drawdown, and then getting more aggressive with size as the position is winning with price 10-20k+ in your favor. At which point you can also set a stop loss at breakeven. Time in the market beats timing the market works in both directions.
Let's go over advanced position management techniques as we don't tend to see that discussed here very often. Most people simply have a stop loss and take profit as their primary risk management strategy. A 2x leveraged trade with scaled entries( 1%, double to 2%, double to 4%, and double to 8%) with liquidation as the stop loss really allows you to take advantage of time in the market as well as the market moving against you being an even better opportunity than you started with. You are controlling your maximum risk with the total capital ever allowed in the trade on isolated margin. You must decide what that % is before ever taking a position in the market. Treat every trade as if the entire position can go to 0. Black swans can blow past stop losses.
The larger your account perhaps you may want to use no leverage and even less capital %. Pretty much anyone trading above 200-300k would fall into that camp. Anyone trading above $1 million probably wants to scale in at 0.75%, 1.5% and then 3% max capital in the trade. Remember you can always add capital into a winning position, but you cannot take capital out of a losing trade without realizing the loss. A stop loss is not necessary if you position size to lose 100%. A great average monthly return target is 10%. Some months will make nothing, some will be in drawdown or a loss, and some will be very large gains if you add to winning positions. Some years will be much better than others as well. Of course buying bear market lows sets one up to have really good years in peak bull run years.
You just want to average 10% per month(3-5% per month for anyone already above $1 million) over the course of decades(Yes I know liquidity becomes an issue at some point it will be obvious to anyone when they have reached that level). It doesn't matter what every single month is individually. Simply reinvesting 20-30% over the course of 10 years, 20 years, and even 30 years is amazing compounded gains. This trading career is a marathon and not a sprint. Don't think how can I get rich off of one trade and change my life today. Think how can I make a consistent % return in the market that compounds to generational wealth over the course of my entire lifetime that changes the lives of all those who come after me.
BTCUSD HTF cycle analysis
Hi, I’m from Phoenix FX, and today I’ll be sharing my perspective on Bitcoin (BTC) price action based on the higher timeframes.
I’ll also give you my outlook on potential trade setups for today and tomorrow. Please remember that this is not financial advice—use this information as a guide only. If you find it helpful, don’t forget to like and share it with your like-minded communities.
Higher Timeframe Analysis
In my view, BTC tends to follow clear bullish and bearish cycle zones. Typically, we see a pump to new all-time highs (ATH), followed by the formation of resistance and a retracement down to a key support level. Our trading approach focuses on identifying those critical support and resistance levels, with some interim trades based on shorter-term analysis—occasionally even counter-trend, depending on the day’s market bias.
Over the past eight years, BTC has respected a major trend resistance line. The most recent ATH, around $112K, reconfirmed the relevance of this trendline. This makes it a valuable tool for projecting future ATH levels.
Looking ahead, I expect a move towards the $115K level in the coming weeks. This would likely act as a point of resistance, at which stage we might see a reversal and a drop back down to a key support zone.
Trade Setup
The chart I'm referencing highlights what I would consider the first premium buy zone, identified using a 4-hour Fair Value Gap (FVG).
The 50% level of this zone sits at $99,450. If this zone fails to hold, we may drop further to the secondary premium buy zone, which aligns with our higher timeframe (HTF) trend support and a weekly FVG. The 50% level of this deeper zone is around $89,150.
A potential long entry at $92,550, with a stop loss around $88,000, offers an excellent risk-to-reward (RR) ratio, targeting a move up to the $115K level.
Intraday Outlook
For today, I see bearish price action, with potential rejection around the $104,300–$105,000 range. Go short around the $104,750 to $105,000 zone
This could lead to a move down toward the lower key zones highlighted in the HTF analysis.
I recommend taking partial profits (TP) at every $1,000 increment and setting your stop loss to breakeven (BE) after hitting the first target.
Final Thoughts
Price action analysis is always subjective, so I’d love to hear your thoughts and ideas in the comments—each one, teach one.
Thanks for giving me some of your time.
From the Phoenix FX team, have a great weekend!
BTCUSD BREAK SUPPORT LEVEL AND WENT TO DOWN TRENDHere I Created This BTCUSD Chart Analysis
Pair : BTCUSD (BITCOIN)
Timeframe: 1 - Hour
Pattern: Breakout
Momentum: Bearish / Sell
Entry Limit : Sell 106200
Resistance zone : 106600
Target Will Be : 104000
Disclaimer : This signal is based on personal analysis for learning purposes. Trade at your own risk and always use proper risk management.
Bearish drop?The Bitcoin (BTC/USD) has reacted off the pivot, which lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, and could drop to the 1st support, which lines up with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension.
Pivot: 108,411.31
1st Support: 105,349.38
1st Resistance: 109,146.02
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Chart Pattern Analysis Of Bitcoin
K3 is a weak break down,
It failed to close below K2.
It seems that K4 will test the uptrend line to verify K3 was a fake down or not.
If K4 close upon K3,
Another bull run will start here to test 112K area.
If K4 or K5 are doji candles around the support,
It is likely that a sharp price correction will start here to test 102K area.
Bitcoin's at ALL TIME HIGHS and I'm going ALL IN!!As Bitcoin surges to new all-time highs, I've made a pivotal decision: to stop saving in dollars and start holding Bitcoin.
Why Bitcoin? Self-Custody:
Owning Bitcoin means true ownership. With self-custody, I control my private keys, ensuring my wealth isn't subject to third-party risks like bank failures or government seizures.
Declining Dollar Value: The U.S. dollar continues to depreciate due to inflation and economic policies. Holding Bitcoin, a deflationary asset, offers a hedge against this erosion of purchasing power.
Global Accessibility: Bitcoin transcends borders, providing financial inclusion for anyone with internet access, especially in regions with unstable currencies.
Security and Privacy: With proper self-custody practices, my Bitcoin holdings are secure from hacks and offer enhanced privacy compared to traditional financial systems.
As I monitor the BTC/USD daily chart, the trend is clear: Bitcoin isn't just a speculative asset; it's a movement towards financial sovereignty.