BTCUSDF2025 trade ideas
Bitcoin Broke New High – The Real Reasons Behind ItThe relationship between inflation and Bitcoin - they moves in tandem together, in the same direction.
We saw Bitcoin has broken above its 2021 high, and it is likely to continue this trend.
Many attribute the reason behind this rally to the approval of Bitcoin ETF by SEC in January of this year. While this approval serves an incentive, the core reason for this rally is the resilience of US inflation, meaning the inflation is still pretty stubborn, not coming down to the 2% target.
Micro Bitcoin Futures & Options
Ticker: MBT
Minimum fluctuation:
$5.00 per bitcoin = $0.50
BTIC: $1.00 per bitcoin = $0.10
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Comparative analysis. Fractals. Bitcoin and Nasdaq. Lagging.Logarithm. Assignment in three days. Formations "Bowl". There is a fractal similarity.
The Nasdaq index is "ahead." The price is now at $15,237 after a nearly vertical strong price rise from the last consolidation of +18.21%. Note the price levels and their values on the CME.
Bitcoin lags noticeably if this fractal structure is realized, but the % ratio targets are also an order of magnitude higher due to lower liquidity.
BTC secondary trend (part).
This bitcoin reversal zone was shown here.
BTC/USD Secondary trend. Medium-term work. Pivot zone
Save or increase, if you can trade successfully — your digital gold for “central banks” .
BitCoin Price AnalysisGoing over BTC since its breakout. looking for clues and trying to LISTEN to what the market is telling us. always know where you'll get out if you're wrong and dont fade the trend. thats our motto.
BTC to 90kBTC is showing remarkable resilience, holding steady above the $90K mark! 📈 It's a testament to the growing confidence in cryptocurrency markets. As we look ahead, experts predict a bullish trajectory, with BTC poised to surpass $90K and potentially reach new heights before the year's end. For traders with long positions, this presents a compelling opportunity to maintain confidence and hold onto your investments. The current market dynamics, coupled with positive sentiment and institutional adoption, suggest that BTC's journey to $90K and beyond is well within reach. Stay vigilant, stay informed, and stay optimistic! 🌟 #Bitcoin #Crypto #BullRun
Btc1! Btc futuresBINANCE:BTCUSDT Dominance on support level.Lets remember the targets first 80k then Btc.d hit 58 then re acc. Maybe in may or June we can hit 100k
BTC1!#BTC1! 1W
It is very possible for #Bitcoin to correct the GETTEX:39K levels to close the price gap before #Halving on the #BTC1 chart, and this level represents the cross area on the #Weekly_Interval from which it started with an upward acceleration and may return to it with a downward acceleration.
#BTC1!
These are #BTC futures contracts on the (CMTE) Chicago Financial Derivatives Exchange.
🅱️ Bitcoin Hits New All-Time High (Timing)This would be a perfect time to start building a short position. One can start slowly and grow as confirmation comes in.
How you ease into it is completely up to you.
Timing might be good now.
This is an early call. Patience is needed.
Only hit the gas once confirmation comes in.
Wishing you good luck, success, wealth and profits.
Namaste.
Bitcoin Futures Test Major Overhead Resistance! Following the approval of the spot Bitcoin ETFs on Jan 10th, BTC futures have rallied by more than 30%. Capital inflows have remained consistent in these ETFs, supporting higher Spot and Futures prices.
The Decoupling:
The new demand brought by the approval of the Spot ETFs have given both retail, and institutional investors the opportunity to add exposure to BTC in diversified investment portfolios. Prices have managed to go higher, despite higher treasury yields and real interest rates. Interest rate cut expectations have also been reduced, yet BTF futures have rallied.
We are witnessing a decoupling of macroeconomic influences on BTC futures. Despite the fact that financial conditions are tighter, this speculative risk asset continues to rally. This is very supportive of prices in the near term, and a sign that demand for exposure to “digital gold” is real.
Technicals:
From a technical perspective, BTC futures gapped higher on 2/28. This will serve as major support in the near term, and prices could correct if we were to break and close below the gap. To break all time highs, we will need to break and close above the major overhead resistance level of $68,300-$69,500.
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Disclaimers:
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Bitcoin to the MoonLook with open eyes
Everything is repeated once more
Just hold and enjoy
GoodLuck
After Bitcoin’s Stunning Rally. What Next?Bitcoin is surging through expectations defying rally. Bitcoin (“BTC”) stands 22% higher over the last seven days. At its highest on 28 Feb 2024, BTC at USD 64k was 7% shy of its all-time-high.
Recent bitcoin (“BTC”) performance harkens back to the euphoric bull runs. Market metrics signal more steam in store.
This note discusses BTC’s recent rally and the road ahead. Anticipating short-term consolidation, this paper posits a short position in BTC/ETH ratio.
BITCOIN RALLY HAS MORE IN STORE
BTC is soaring fuelled by a range of tailwinds including strong demand from newly listed spot BTC ETFs, expected BTC halving, and a broader crypto market rally.
1. On-chain metrics do not signal significant profit taking (yet). Long-term holders have shown resilience despite significant gains in their holdings. Unrealized gains can be inferred by the market-value-to-realised-value (“MVRV”) indicator . MVRV assesses the market capitalization of BTC relative to its realized capitalization. It is determined by the price at which coins were last traded.
Current MVRV of 2.5x indicates that the current BTC prices are >2.5x the price at which coins last moved. Despite this, BTC supply that has remained unmoved in the past one year has remained surprisingly resilient. Supply not moved in more than a year is down 3.75% over the past three months while prices have rallied 53% and MVRV has remained >2x.
During previous cycles, particularly, when price peaked, MVRV was closer to three times, profit taking rates were high causing physical BTC to change hands rapidly. Current conditions do not match previous drawdowns suggesting potential for consolidation limiting further gains. Past performance does not necessarily imply future trends.
Current exchange inflows are near record highs. A substantial portion of these is from short-term holders rather than long-term holders.
Source: Glassnode
2. Continued spot buying as well as strong ETF demand. ETF demand shows no signs of slowing. Since putting our last paper on 26th Feb , an additional USD 2.3B of inflows have surged into spot ETFs. The pace of daily net flows to ETFs reached its highest level to date on 29th Feb.
Demand remains so solid that NASDAQ:IBIT became the fastest ETF to reach USD 10 billion in AUM, just 51 days after launch. Fidelity’s AMEX:FBTC is not far behind at USD 6.2 billion in AUM. GBTC outflows have continued but the pace of inflows has not reached those seen at the beginning.
In addition to fund flows, traded volumes have also remained elevated. BTC ETF volumes reached USD 11 billion on 28th Feb when prices soared above USD 60k for the first time. Volume on ETFs was particularly high when price rallied to its peak of USD 64k.
3. Funding rates and options smile . Funding rates on BTC perpetual futures signal elevated levels of speculative bullish demand. Funding rates are at levels observed during past bull runs.
Options markets are also pricing in further upside after last week. BTC options volatility curve of BTCH24 (March 2024) has shown a far higher forward skew compared to prior week. This is indicative of higher price for calls (bullishness) compared to puts (bearishness).
Source: QuikStrike
Call/Put skew over the past month shows that skew for calls have started to expand once more following sharp rally above USD 60k on 28th Feb.
Source: QuikStrike
BITCOIN NOW FACES RESISTANCE
Source: Coinglass
BTC market suffered large liquidations following sharp rally on 28th Feb. Liquidations were spread across both longs and shorts, but overall short liquidations were higher.
Across two more periods when price failed to surpass USD 63k definitively, long positions were liquidated once more. Still, since then liquidations have been much smaller than the peak.
Price remains rangebound after crossing USD 60k. It faced resistance crossing past USD 65k and maintained support above USD 60k.
BTC-ETH SPREAD LIKELY TO RALLY
BTC rallies typically precede ETH rallies as described before . Since that paper was published, the spread is merely 4% lower. The spread remains elevated relative to historical levels.
ETH has its unique tailwinds pushing it higher independent of BTC and the broader crypto market. Higher ETH burn due to greater on-chain activity is reducing ETH supply.
Moreover, decisions on spot ETH ETFs are expected by May 2024. While the final decision remains uncertain, the approaching deadline is likely to fuel bullish sentiments.
HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP
BTC price is sharply higher and close to its previous all-time-high. Tailwinds for BTC remain intact. It faces near-term price consolidation following the sharp rally.
BTC price consolidation will favour ETH in BTC/ETH spread. ETH outperformed BTC during periods of consolidation in the past.
A spread position comprising of long Micro ETH futures and short Micro BTC futures allows investors to gain exposure to this trend with a 50% margin offset.
Micro ETH futures offer exposure to 0.1ETH and Micro BTC futures provide exposure to 0.1BTC. Thus, eighteen contracts of METH2024 are required to match notional for one contract of MBTH2024.
The below hypothetical trade setup offers a reward-to-risk ratio of 1.8x:
• Entry: 18.35
• Target: 16.87
• Stop Loss: 19.50
• Profit at Target: USD 5,255 (+8.1%)
• Loss at Stop: USD 4,025 (-6.2%)
• Reward to Risk: 1.3x
MARKET DATA
CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
DISCLAIMER
This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
Why all economists were wrong ? - Storytelling In the fading light of November 2022, a gloomy shadow loomed over the realm of economics. Pessimism blanketed the landscape like a heavy fog, stifling optimism and strangling hope. The majority of economists, revered for their astuteness and foresight, found themselves perplexed and uncertain. In a world where certainty had once reigned supreme, doubt had now taken its throne.
Economists were not feeling optimistic. People who liked cryptocurrency waited for prices to drop to $10k before buying. Some bought when prices were low but sold cautiously when they reached 25K . Others decided to sell half of what they had to avoid losing too much money and keep cash for lower prices. On social media and TV shows, some economists were saying scary things like there might be a war or prices might go up too much , scaring people even more.
Meanwhile, accumulation quietly began as the market lacked steam.
Towards the end of 2023, prices suddenly went up a lot. Even then, some people thought it was just a small correction and that the fall was near. But as prices kept going up, more and more people started feeling hopeful about cryptocurrency.
And so, the cycle repeated itself, a timeless dance between fear and greed, uncertainty and hope. For in the ever-shifting sands of the economic landscape, one thing remained certain: the only constant was change itself. And in the end, it was not the economists who were proven wrong, but rather the limitations of human perception and understanding.
🅱️ Bitcoin CME Futures 1h: Bear Volume ($29,845 Next)When Bitcoin produced the highest volume in months on 9-Jan. 2024, on the 1h timeframe, it signaled the start of a strong retrace.
The highest volume in months came in 9-Jan. but the highest this year came in 11-Jan. 2024.
➖ Bitcoin moved from a high of 47,460 to a low of 38,540, a 22% drop.
On the 28th of February 2024 at 13:00 Bitcoin produced the highest bearish volume bar on the 1h timeframe since 8-November 2022. Making this session the most bearish in years.
There is another high bear volume session only a few hours later that is only matched by 3-4 sessions in a period of almost two years.
As soon as this strong bear pressure came in, price action patterns changed completely and the more than one month long rising trend behaviour changed.
This signal is telling me that Bitcoin's strong rise is coming to an end.
👉 The correction low should end between the 25,640 to 34,050 price range.
Thank you for reading.
Namaste.
Silicon Valley's Lab RatCrypto is an experiment. A new way for illegal payments to be more accessible to the masses.
Decentralization is a fancy way of saying that Bitcoin is digital black money. Black is the color banks are allergic to.
Is Bitcoin strong enough to battle against Banks?
To follow its paradigm, 23 thousand more coins have been opportunistically created. Each one of them attempts to get a piece of the black market pie.
There is no law that forces Bitcoin to be an ever-growing commodity. There is no law that forces it to go to waste. The only law behind it is supply and demand. And if you have been paying attention, we haven't had much supply up here...
If you want this coin to grow further, you must see where the majority of buyers are at. In this case, the buyers are quite lower. Now we are in a zone where the excitement of a Bitcoin ETF is clouding your judgement. If you clear your mind, you will realize that we are in the same story over and over again. An eternal attempt to trap buyers and sellers in the wrong place.
The main chart calculates an extremely simple quantity: How much more expensive is the next contract than the current one? This is one of the ways to calculate bullishness/bearishness in market. Now it is in an all-time high. In similar levels to March of 2021. And boy this is bad news.
Notice a similarity???
Let me explain further...
No words need be spoken. A classic redistribution pattern appears in both cases. And the pattern is eerily similar.
In the end, it is déjà vu.
Further analysis:
Human psychology is independent of instrument or timeframe.
Déjà vu, over and over and over again...
Bitcoin may be Silicon Valley's Lab Rat. Don't be Bitcoin's Lab Rat.
A serious trader must be neither excited nor fearful.
Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground.
-Father Grigori
BTC Bullish FlagOn the 4H chart we can see that the BTC is moving in a bullish flag pattern, so soon we can see the break-out, but be careful because we also can see that the volumes are descending, so this can be a manipulative movement and very fast!
IMPORTANT! Always follow the RM strategy while trading!
BITCOIN BEFORE THE HALVING
My logarithmic to daily 4hr charts is here! we might see 57-58k as I predicted my previous post, this valid once price keep pushing upto 55000 level zone.
If this is a distributions we might not see 55000 level, see the arrow .
But for my view price might test that 57-58000 level before incoming month of march.
Im expecting a month of upside before the halving and I will be updating this idea once this complete.
The second arrow is Small distribution after those upthrust moves of price at 53000 level.
The other arrow is for the higher context of distributing its price on higher supply at 57-58000 level. this moves might goes a higher EUphoria level same on the 64-69000 last time.
so becareful alway buy low and stack harder!
Follow for more!
BTC LONG Speculation, no major corrections until 75k-80k?Since the ETF, it seems to have been a sell the news, followed by buying the dip event at the 100D MA.
Dips since the start of the bull run, even before the launch of the BTC ETF, have averaged ~20% followed by a continued massive bull run. Some, including myself, speculated a break of this trend of 20% dips (breaking 38k) followed by a continued sell-off into 34k or even 30k. The ETF launch was a perfect event to sell along with outflows from the GBTC takeover until recently.
Assuming this pattern of 100% returns after a 20% dip, technically BTC can reach ~80k. Considering the shortened duration to reach such returns, we may reach 80k sooner than expected in this cycle.
Note that we have recently (in the past few weeks) broken a multi-cycle trendline that acted as resistance roughly two months before the FTX collapse. So it could validate prices rising on top of ETF inflows increasing. Note that upon reaching 74k-80k, it is likely a significant pullback within 30k-40k will occur, given the lack of test of structure that BTC normally does pre-halving.
This idea is invalidated with a daily close under 49.5k. Closing over 59k will likely have the rally continue toward 74k, with any price beyond it being risky to hold without selling, likely maxing out at 80k roughly the end of March. Closing under 44k would be bearish enough to consider going to 30k.
Overall, this idea is very speculative and assumes a trend continuation that breaks BTC's normal patterns/expectations of price movement. Upward price movement is 34%-44% toward 74k and 80k, with a downward price movement of 42+% toward 31k, so entering now is dabbling more in the middle, slightly favoring bears in the long run. This is likely all that's left for BTC to continue the rally past ATHs assuming it can hold 50k before a significant correction. You could even argue of strong resistance ~57k-59k, but inflows are too strong, as is the narrative of RWA and the Tokenization of Financial Assets .
Be weary that there are still other risks (cyber pandemic, bank runs, civil unrest, real estate, labor market participation/retraining, shipping routes in the Middle East, control of rare earth minerals/semiconductors) that have been deferred thanks to speculation/attention of tech around AI, and may conveniently come back. I'm not sure when, but I'd speculate starting the second half of 2025 to 2026.
Trades:
Long 55k
SL 49.5k
TP 74k (close or by the end of March)
Short 77k
SL 85k
TP 60k, 45k, 35k (close)
