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Bitcoin / US Dollar Inverse Futures Contract (Apr 2025)Bitcoin / US Dollar Inverse Futures Contract (Apr 2025)Bitcoin / US Dollar Inverse Futures Contract (Apr 2025)

Bitcoin / US Dollar Inverse Futures Contract (Apr 2025)

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BTCUSDJ2025 trade ideas

Appetite For Risk Through the Lens of Nasdaq and BitcoinBitcoin tends to track Wall Street sentiment well, particularly compared to the Nasdaq. Growing concerns that Trump's policies will tip the US (and therefore the global economy) into a recession, which currently has the Nasdaq on the ropes and bitcoin getting dragged along for the ride. And there could be further losses to follow, though a cheeky bounce at a minimum could be due first. Matt Simpson, Market Analyst and City Index and Forex.com
CME:BTC1!
by CityIndex
Bitcoin CME GAP Update Don't forget panda fam that still there's a GAP at 82370 - 85920 range area keylevel currently filled by 50%. Possible next scenario on bitcoin confluence with the CME GAP will be CME GAP filling above then continuation drop in worst case scenario since our H4 to Daily Timeframe is on clear bearish bias. 🐻 Bullish case scenario, If we manage to bounce and stay above on LAST MINOR S&R KEYLEVEL and will create a new swing for reversal sign then possibly we can test the recent Major PBr at 96k. 🐂
CME:BTC1!
by cryptopandaph
Is the U.S. building a crypto reserve?The United States (U.S.) is no longer just a bitcoin holder – it may be laying the groundwork for a national crypto reserve. Is this the moment bitcoin goes fully mainstream? Strategic bitcoin accumulation? Recent estimates suggest that the U.S. government is sitting on 200,000+ bitcoins – over $13 billion worth – mostly seized from criminal operators such as the Silk Road1. That stash makes Uncle Sam one of the largest bitcoin holders in the world. But here is the real question: what is the endgame? Historically, seized bitcoin was auctioned off at deep discounts, flooding the market with sell pressure. This time, however, President Donald Trump’s latest executive order has put a halt to rapid liquidations, signalling a strategic shift. Instead of fire sales, the U.S. government is deliberately holding onto its bitcoin, driving speculation about a potential long-term reserve strategy. Is this merely a temporary pause, or the first step toward establishing a full-fledged crypto reserve? While the executive order marks a clear change in approach, formally integrating bitcoin into the U.S. financial system would demand congressional approval, regulatory coordination, and a robust custody framework. The path forward is not just about policy – it is about power. Digital gold for digital age Crypto is not just a speculative asset anymore – it is a strategic economic lever in global power dynamics. With the U.S. dollar facing growing pressure from alternative currencies and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), bitcoin’s appeal as a neutral, hard asset is undeniable. Unlike traditional assets, bitcoin cannot be printed, seized by sanctions, or easily manipulated. If the U.S. sees what other nations are beginning to recognise – that bitcoin is the 21st century version of gold – it may rethink its role as a long-term reserve asset. The conversation around crypto is no longer confined to industry circles. President Donald Trump recently issued an executive order officially recognising bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset, marking a significant policy shift. This move has sparked widespread discussion about the future role of digital assets in national reserves. Further reinforcing this shift, the White House is set to host a Crypto Summit on March 7, where top policymakers and industry leaders will discuss digital assets. While details are scarce, this could be the first step toward formal integration of crypto into U.S. financial policy. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve has remained largely silent, leaving questions about its stance on bitcoin’s role in national monetary policy. Will the central bank embrace digital assets, or will it resist this historic shift? What would it take to make it official? Turning bitcoin into a recognised U.S. reserve asset is not just a simple executive order. It would require: Congressional approval to classify bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as strategic reserves. Regulatory coordination between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), Federal Reserve, and Treasury. A secure custody framework to manage holdings without risking security breaches or market instability. A phased rollout – starting with bitcoin before expanding to other cryptocurrencies or beginning with small holdings before gradually increasing them. This would not happen overnight. A realistic timeline? Years, not months. Expect feasibility studies, pilot programs, and intense political battles before crypto earns a seat next to gold in the U.S. balance sheet. Market shockwaves If the U.S. openly adopts bitcoin as a reserve asset, expect seismic shifts in global markets: Sovereign bitcoin FOMO2 – other nations would likely follow suit, sparking a global race to accumulate bitcoin. Institutional confidence surge – a U.S. endorsement would cement bitcoin’s status as digital gold, driving massive institutional inflows. Reduced sell pressure – unlike past cycles of seized bitcoin dumps, retention would tighten supply and bolster price stability. If this trend accelerates, we could be looking at a fundamental shift in the financial system – one where bitcoin plays a central role in sovereign wealth strategies. The question is not if, but when and how fast governments will adapt to this new reality. The bottom line With the world’s largest economy holding one of the biggest bitcoin reserves, the question is not just about policy – it is about power. Will this be the turning point where bitcoin cements itself as the next global reserve currency? 1 US Government Bitcoin Holdings, Bitcoin Treasuries by BiTBO (treasuries.bitbo.io) 2 FOMO = fear of missing out.
CME:BTC1!
by aneekaguptaWTE
BTC Bullish ScenarioForgive my crude analysis of the waves displayed but this is how I see it. Assuming that the top is in for BTC, an ABC correction is expected. A wave would most likely take us to 68k - 70k region, B wave pullback to around 85k - 90k region and a C wave towards the Legendary Trading Zone around 43k. Trading below 43k means a cryptobubble is on the way, same way with the traditional stock market. Holding 43k level would validate a bullish scenario towards 200k area as Institutions/Whales want a cheaper price for BTC... That ABC correction follows a harmonic pattern as ABCD bullish scenario that would take us to the next wave of this supercycle...
CME:BTC1!Long
by eyeshot7
Bitcoin 10X Trade-Numbers (1,375% Potential)The low is in and this is the perfect timing for a long-term LONG on Bitcoin (BTCUSDT and other trading pairs). This is for experienced traders and can end up producing huge profits, great growth, amazing results —great entry timing. __ LONG BTCUSDT Leverage: 10X Entry levels: 1) $85,000 2) $83,000 3) $81,000 3) $78,000 Targets: 1) $94,810 2) $98,804 3) $101,058 4) $104,266 5) $108,353 6) $112,859 7) $115,648 8) $120,154 9) $132,643 10) $139,250 11) $158,347 12) $165,345 13) $189,212 14) $200,000 Stop-loss: Close monthly below $78,000 Potential profits: 1375% Capital allocation: 5% ____ Thanks a lot for your continued support. Namaste.
CME:BTC1!Long
by MasterAnanda
15
BTC CME Gap PlayoutWell, here we go again—another CME gap filled like clockwork. On Friday, BTC closed at $85.7K on CME, only to open on Monday with a big jump at $94.5K, leaving a massive weekend gap. And what happened next? Within the next 24 hours, the price fully covered the gap, even dropping further down to $82.8K before stabilizing. 🔹 Statistics Historically, these gaps have shown a high tendency to be filled, with studies indicating that approximately 95% of CME gaps eventually close. 🔹 Why does this happen? CME gaps occur because the Bitcoin futures market on CME is closed during weekends, while crypto trades 24/7. When CME reopens on Monday, price often corrects to “fill” the gap left between Friday’s close and Monday’s open. 🔹 What’s next? Now that the gap is filled, we’ll have to see if bulls can regain momentum or if we get another leg down before continuation. Watching the next key levels! Stay sharp!
CME:BTC1!
by Expate
$BTC Futures FractalTaking a closer look at BTC CME chart in late 2020, after a high of $14,000 Bitcoin Futures corrected and rallied back up (with a gap) to $12,000. After another 21% correction (almost closing the gap) we started to rally to all time high. Looking at the current chart today we have a very similar set up. From a major correction, and then a rally (Gap up) we have closed the gap. If the timing is exactly the same... (unlikely).., well see another rally to new all time highs. First target is still $130,000.
CME:BTC1!Long
by A7Fund
5
Bitcoin: A US Reserve CurrencyCME: Micro Bitcoin Futures ( CME:MBT1! ) On the morning of March 2nd, President Donald Trump posted a tweet to reinforce his commitment to a Crypto Strategic Reserve, including XRP, SOL and ADA. Cryptocurrency market took off immediately. Despite not being mentioned in the tweet, Bitcoin shot up from $78,400 to $83,900, and Ethereum from $2,090 to $2,240. Later in the afternoon, President Trump posted an update and clarified that BTC and ETH will be in the Reserve. “I also love Bitcoin and Ethereum!”, he tweeted. At the time of this writing, BTC is quoted $94,308, up 20.3% since the first tweet. ETH is trading at $2,520, up 20.6% within the day. We are in a new age of cryptocurrencies, where BTC, ETH, XRP, SOL and ADA just gained the official backing of the US Government. This day has been in the making for months. • On May 24, 2024, then presidential candidate Trump promised to launch a national crypto stockpile if he wins the election. Investors warmed to this idea and Bitcoin lifted 18% • On November 5, 2024, Trump won the US election. Market cheered for the most pro-crypto president and Bitcoin shot up 57% in a month • On January 23, 2025, President Trump signed the “Executive Order to establish United States leadership on digital financial technology.” Bitcoin went up 17% • Recent events have brought bitcoin down 28% since reaching its all-time-high of $109,241. In a matter of two tweets, the crypto market has completely turned around Bitcoin for the Long Haul A year ago, I published this market commentary, “A Bitcoin Bull Run?”, and laid out the key drivers for bitcoin’s long-term rise. Limited supply, increased demand and excessive liquidity helped bitcoin prices doubled in a year. In my opinion, these tailwinds remains intact for bitcoin in the coming months. On top of these, we now have the explicit endorsement from a sitting US president. Therefore, I stay bullish for holding bitcoin for the long haul. Trading with Micro Bitcoin Futures On “HODL with a Twist”, published on May 6, 2024, I explored using Futures Rollover strategy to invest in CME Micro Bitcoin Futures ( LSE:MBT ). This strategy worked nicely in the past, and I favor to continue deploying it. The paragraphs below provide a brief update with new contract months and new price data. Firstly, using futures over spot bitcoin provides these compelling advantages: • Capital efficiency in using margins. A trader could invest with as little as $2,075 to take on the full exposure of $9,431 (1/10th of a bitcoin) • Futures contracts come with build-in leverage. For MBT, it is approximately 4.5 times (= 9431/2075). If bitcoin moves 10% in your favor, you could gain 45% with futures • Price protection. MBT has a daily price limit (limit-up and limit-down) at 10%. In a volatile day with big moves, the Exchange will pause trading at the prescribed limits Secondly, futures contracts have a limited lifespan that will influence the outcome of your trades and exit strategy. Micro Bitcoin futures are traded actively in the nearby March and April contracts. Liquidity in the back-month contracts has yet to pick up. Rollover is when a trader moves his position from the front month contract to another contract further in the future, prior to the expiration of his existing holding. Below is an illustration on how to hold a long MBT position overtime: • In March, a trader buys (going long) April contract (MBTJ5) at $94,308 • In April, the trader enters an offsetting trade, going short on MBTJ5, to close his existing position. He would book a profit or loss, determined by the difference in selling price and purchasing price • Simultaneously, the trader would buy May MBT contract (MBTK5) and re-establish a long position in Bitcoin • In May, the trader will close out MBTK5 (going short) and buy June (MBTM5) • The trader would repeat the above steps, so far as he holds a bullish view Finally, Bitcoin prices are extremely volatile. Holding spot Bitcoin with no leverage could face potential drawdown of 70%-80%. With the leverage in futures, a sharp price move in the wrong direction could quickly deplete the available fund and trigger margin calls. Trader could set up a stop-loss in the buy order, limiting the maximum loss. Hypothetically, he could set the stop-loss at $85,000 when executing long futures at $94,308. If bitcoin moves sharply down, the maximum loss will be $931 (= (94308-85000)*0.1). His margin account will be decreased to $1,144 from $2,075. To learn more about all the Micro futures and options contracts traded on CME Group platform, you can check out the following site: www.cmegroup.com Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME:MBT1!Long
by JimHuangChicago
1
Bitcoin CME Gap Wars continue with a Bigger New Gap- what next ? Last week we saw the Bitcoin PA Drop down and begin filling that existing CME gap, that had opened in Nov 2024 CME Gaps ALWAYS get filled I said. And they usualy do PA got down to 78600 and bounced back up. It had NOT completely filled the Gap, leaving a gap from 78600 down to 77920. This is a small gap But significant in that the BTC Bulls pushed PA up before the gap was filled....waving 2 fingers at he CME. CME Closes for the Weekend and the price at close on Friday evening was around 85345 I thought we were going to see PA turn and drop back down to complete the Fill..I even had a Spot Buy order down there.. BUT NO - The Bulls arrived again and BANG- When CME opened for the New weeks trading, Bitcoin was up at EXACTLY 95K This had created a NEW gap, with the remains of the older one just below. And so now, Whats next ? Since then, PA dropped to 91635, Filling a more recent smaller gap and has since then, pushed back up higher. When will the Bigger new Gap get filled ? We have a number of possible scenarios and I think my preferred one is that we revisit the Lower levels, Fill the Gap and at the same time, continue to cool off that Still Bearish weekly MACD., whihc, once at Neutral, will have more than enough ability to push to s decent new Cycle ATH in Q4 Another option is that BTC PA ranges high, for Longer and Cools off that Weekly MACD, till around June, Leave the gap open for a later date OR, PA Simply pushes to a New ATH now, exhausts itself and falls hard after, filling the Gap as it plunges to 65K or Lower. Take your pick The MACRO side of Xrypto now is noce but I do worry about how this cold all just make Bitcoin rise to Fast and go POP at the top We need to continue the Slow Steady rise, maintain a balance and act like Adults..Not like Teenagers with a new Bag of Sweets. Be REALLY careful righ tnow, But MAKE MONEY TOO But remain cautious. This Gap WILL GET FILLED ONE DAY
CME:BTC1!
by Orriginal
Bitcoin, Mind The Gap (85,720) The massive move initiated from Trumps tweet Sunday about the Crypto Strategic Reserve has left a massive gap on the Bitcoin Futures Chart. Gaps tend to get fill sooner rather than later, with a high 90% hit rate on gaps getting filled. We could see a pullback this week to fill the gap with another run up following back above 90k to save the weekly close ... again. We see confluence with the golden pocket (0.6128 - 0.65 Fib) here on that retracement and also the most amount of volume (VPVR) being traded there. A final test of the demand below 90k, which if shown as support, will lead us back into the range of 90k to 110k.
CME:BTC1!
by Mamocoin
CYCLE 4 | CME GAP: Bull Cycle Period First Major Pull Back?Quick post to address BTCs expected potential first major pull back into this bull run period... BULL MARKET PULL BACKS Historically, BTC during its bull market enjoys pull back which ranged from 15% to as much as 30%-40% in prior markets. This is essential for trader participants in the market to take profits, allow BTC to retest low levels and prove new heights are sustainable before ranging to new higher price levels. The first pull back historically for BTC post the start of the 'Bull Run' phase of BTCs 4 year cycle is traditionally the largest pull back opportunity and historically been the best short term buying opportunity in the Bull Run (NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE). We can expect a 30-40% correction for this pull back based on historic bull market period examples (Let me know in the comments below if you would like me to detail consistent price behaviour during BTC bull run periods in a future post). ARE WE AT THIS POINT NOW OF THE CYCLE? WHAT ARE THE INDICATORS SAYING? As highlighted by the RED arrow on the chart, a number of the indicators like to monitor on the weekly chat are suggesting bearish divergences and fading momentum exists with the current price action. This is calling for a cooling off period of the market. CME GAP Historically, BTC has had a tendency to want to 'close' open gap, created by weekend trading of BTC that does not align with equities that follow the traditional 'No Trading' over the weekend policy of Traditional Financial instruments. Hence crypto ETFs which align with these policies (such as the CME Futures chart as seen in this chart) can create 'GAP' between the open (Monday) and close (Friday) candles. To understand CME gaps, please take the time to review the details discussion in the earlier post. The orange BOX shows the below CME gap target that BTC price may range towards to close. NOTE: this box has been listed as Partially Closed as the open Monday candle of the gap did go below before rising during the weekly candle but did no dip past the close of the previous weekly candle. 21W EMA & 20W SMA Historically, a fully developed healthy bull market for BTC has required periodic retesting and holding of these moving averages. A close of the CME gap at this point of the market would also satisfy this historic trend for BTC. ORANGE TREND LINE Bears if eager to continue the 'close the CME gap' trend will need to convince the market by first exceeding the orange trend line. Currently this allows BTC to complete a 10 to 12% correction while also taking the price below the key psychological 100K price level, without phasing the bulls conviction to charger higher. * Holding the Orange Trend Line Scenario: we want to see price bounce and conviction from the bulls to push BTC to higher highs. The goal for Bears would be to achieve the measured move up to 180K. This would most potentially shorted the bull run (time prospective) and potentially cap our ATH for this cycle early; creating a distribution zone similar to the 2021 cycle top. * Breaking below the Orange Trend Line Scenario: If we break the Orange Trend Line then Bulls will concede ground to the MA levels (allowing the CME gap to also close). Bulls will write this off as a market reset and holding support at these levels will entice Traders to take positions needed to drive BTC up sustainably to the next higher level(s). Losing the MAs would ask serious questions to the intent of BULLs and the sustainability of the market moving forward this bull run.....
CME:BTC1!
by Brodie
1