CME GAPAre we really gonna ignore the CME gap at the range of 78k to 80k? I really believe we’re to visit these areas before we move up to new highs.
BTCUSDF2025 trade ideas
BTC ForecastBTC Is going to Lead into a higher low, wont have the gap fill as of yet. Has a high low on the bottom with a non manipulated price (Wicking out)
- Looking into a 4 Hour Breaker Block
-Then looking at 1 Hour Fair Value Gap
Start small, with a 1-1 RR then larger position leading to a 1-4 RR
This will disappear from the $100,000 range faster than your sock in the dryer.
.. 10 Year leg is getting out of hand upwards of 4.7, if the 5's get hit the banks and fed cant QE and will have to QT
- Powell cant cut rates as if he does inflation will go out worse and effect the yields
-If trump wants a BTC Reserve why on earth would you not plummet the market and buy on discount? What happened to oil during the start of covid?
- Now banks are going to start leveraging further and created more BullSh*t CLO's leveraging the new asset class of BTC this will be a flash crash ( Yen Carry Trade) in late August.
Load the dip buy the dip
#BTC update#BTC has a price gap which should be filled i think this gap can make the whole market bearish to be filled in other hand there is a bearish pattern in NASDAQ chart so we have to wait and see what will happen
BTC - Long around 80k after resolution of BTC Futures Volume gapI closed by BTC position (which was infact call spreads on BITO) at 107k and haven't touched it. I don't like to short in general and bitcoin can be very tricky.
I am interested in BTC at around 80k after the resolution of the BTC Futures Volume Gap and the mitigation of short interest present at former all time highs etc.
If volatility has spiked aggressively I may look to enter into a credit put spread and use that to finance OTM calls at longer expirations, I will do that all on IBIT.
On a paper trade I setup a few days ago I have OTM 45 puts on the February 21 contract on IBIT. I didn't actually take the trade as I've been busy managing QQQ and NVDA positions, but it would have served the basis of a multi leg low risk synthetic call if I had.
The open papertrade on Optionstrat is linked below. It was planned but I didn't take it because I got distracted by other things like watching 50% of my unrealized profit on NVDA vaporize because of a stupid mistake I made when hedging.
optionstrat.com
Clear mind to manage the risk aheadWe are reaching critical areas for the price of CRYPTOCAP:BTC , the ideal is to stay out of the market in these cases, both in BTC and in the rest of the cryptocurrencies.
And you wonder why? The dominance of BTC in the face of strong falls causes the rest of the tokens to collapse abruptly, which is why it is always better when liquidations are approaching to stay out of the market, since there are no Orders and SLs to hold.
Once the market is going to sweep away all the leveraged and SL that is when we come in, although we have a support zone at 87,000 - 86,000, I do not think it will hold and in my opinion, it will go directly to close the gap to 76k
Exactly as predictedPosted on the 30th of December showing this was a clear short trap to lure in short traders.
We are now at a place where two things can happen.
We have a potential harmonic in play from the
ATH that will take us up to 106k, or we are in an ABC Elliot wave corrective.
Unfortunately Trading View took down my first post about this.
But here we are live today, with not a single thing changed on the chart.
Exactly as predictedPosted on the 30th of December showing this was a clear short trap to lure in short traders.
We are now at a place where two things can happen.
We have a potential harmonic in play from the ATH that will take us up to 106k, or we are in an ABC Elliot wave corrective.
Unfortunately TradingView took down my first post about this.
But here we are live today, with not a single thing changed on the chart.
Will BTC close the CME Futures GAP?Comment below wether you think BTC price action will bring the CME Futures GAP to a close
Bitcoin to Soar as Trump’s Pro-Crypto Policy Hopes RiseBitcoin prices are on fire. It has surged 129% YoY with anticipation surrounding re-election of Donald Trump as the POTUS for the 2nd time. Trump is regarded as the “most pro crypto” President. Trump is poised to usher in a crypto friendly policy framework aimed at accelerating institutional adoption and positioning Bitcoin (“BTC”) as a cornerstone of the American financial bedrock.
Rising regulatory clarity and favourable policies on the horizon, the bullish sentiment is palpable. Rollercoaster rides are mild relative to BTC returns. BTC volatility is sharp. There are multiple ways of generating returns in BTC. This paper looks at combining Spot BTC ETFs and CME Micro Bitcoin Futures to harvest futures premium baked into the term structure.
A long position in the underlying asset combined with a short position in the futures is also known as cash-and-carry trades. More on that later.
Starting first with price drivers pushing BTC into record territory.
Crypto Renaissance following President Trump’s Re-election
Trump wasted no time outlining his ambitions to position the US as a global leader in digital asset adoption. Among his key initiatives is the creation of a National Bitcoin Reserve which aims to integrate BTC alongside gold as a strategic asset. This is a bold move making BTC bullish.
Further, Trump’s nominations for key regulatory roles signal a transformative shift. Paul Atkins, co-chair of the crypto lobbying group Token Alliance, is set to lead the SEC. Fintech venture capitalist David Sacks has been tapped as the White House’s AI & Crypto Czar. Together, these two are expected to establish regulatory clarity while reducing policy uncertainty for investors.
Speculation runs rife about tax incentives aimed at encouraging blockchain innovation, driving significant capital inflows into the sector.
At the Nashville Bitcoin Conference in July 2024, Trump unveiled plans for a Bitcoin Advisory Council, which would draft transparent regulations within his first 100 days in office.
The US government already holds 120,000 BTCs seized from illicit operations. Under Trump, the US Government is expected to consider converting excess reserves at the Federal Reserve into BTC over the next five years. Trump has argued that BTC is unlike fiat currencies which are designed to lose value (2% p.a.) through inflation, while the former offers long-term growth potential.
Adding to his pro-BTC stance, Trump reaffirmed his commitment to safeguarding financial sovereignty by defending the right to self-custody. He also doubled down on his opposition to Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), emphasizing his belief in decentralization and financial privacy.
This narrative has resonated strongly with institutional investors where it reinforces BTC’s appeal as a hedge against inflation; and the crypto community, where the intrinsic quality of BTC being independent could still be retained.
BTC's Rally and Institutional Momentum
BTC reached an all-time high of USD 108,364 on 17th December 2024 but has since softened a little and now trades at USD 96,941 as of close of markets on 7th January 2025 (10.5% below its peak).
Despite the pullback, BTC remains a cornerstone of institutional interest. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ( NASDAQ:IBIT ), launched in January 2024, has cemented itself as the fastest-growing exchange-traded fund (ETF) in history. Amassing more than USD 50 billion in assets within 11 months. NASDAQ:IBIT holds half of crypto ETF market share. Strong market demand and introduction of options trading in November has fuelled massive rally in BTC prices.
However, the ETF has also seen hiccups lately. On 3rd January 2025, NASDAQ:IBIT recorded its largest single-day outflow of USD 333 million, also marking its third consecutive day of outflows. These withdrawals align with BTC’s recent pullback. The meteoric rise of ETF underscores a growing appetite for institutional-grade exposure to the token.
HC Wainwright has raised its BTC price target for 2025, boosting projections from USD 140,000 to USD 225,000, citing growing institutional adoption and a favourable regulatory outlook. Meanwhile, Bernstein has similarly forecasted a price of USD 200,000 by the end of 2025, dubbing this period the “Infinity Age” of mainstream financial integration. Also, Geoff Kendrick, Head of Research, Standard Chartered Bank, echoed this optimism, projecting BTC to hit USD 200,000 by year end.
Hypothetical Trade Set Up
Bullish drivers supporting BTC prices are many. The tailwinds are strong. But many of these are hinged on the new administration keeping up to its election rally promises. The token is priced to perfection and has risen so sharply that even a little disappointment in policy expectations can result in sharp price pullback.
In times of such elevated expectations for such assets, the term structure of futures tends to price in steep contango in line with soaring hopes. As of close of markets on 7th January 2025, CME Bitcoin Futures signals a decent steep contango term structure that enables astute investors to lock in market neutral cash and carry yield.
The table below translates the term structure into annualised futures premium for the first six months of the year.
Executing a BTC cash-and-carry trade requires buying into spot BTC while selling a futures contract to neutralise price and market risk. This paper proposes a hypothetical trade using the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (“IBIT”) and CME Micro Bitcoin Futures Contract (“MBT”).
The NASDAQ:IBIT and the MBT products move in tandem with a correlation co-efficient of 1.
The above table points to the highest futures premium while selling the February 2025 MBT contract.
Matching one BTC requires 1,769 units of $IBIT. Each MBT represents 0.1 BTC. A portfolio comprising of a long position in 177 units of NASDAQ:IBIT and a short position in MBT expiring on 28th February 2025 results in a market neutral cash and carry trade to harness the futures premium.
A cash-and-carry trade enables portfolio managers and traders to lock in the futures carry. As the futures contract reaches expiry, the spot and futures prices converge resulting in realisation of the futures premiums.
In the meantime, the P&L of this spread remains intact so long as the steepness in the term structure is constant regardless of BTC price moves. The P&L of this spread trade rises if the term structure flattens. Conversely, if the term structure steepens, it will result in a loss until price convergence occurs at expiry.
The spread trade P&L is summarized below. As explained above, when the spot to futures price differential remains constant in USD terms, the spread P&L remains unchanged at USD 144.67 per lot.
When futures contango flattens, the P&L will rise but eventually converge at expiry. Should that occur, traders can close out the spread trade with a larger P&L without having to hold the position until expiry.
However, if the term structure steepens, then the spread trade will incur losses, and those losses will turn into cash & carry profit of USD 144.67 per lot as prices converge at futures expiry.
Please note that the above calculations do not account for direct costs (trading & clearing fees) and indirect costs (cost of funds required for holding long IBIT position and short MBT futures).
BTC is going to 74K !#BTC here we have a big GAP in CME chart as it happened in past this gap should be filled so BTC can make a rise after touching the demand zone under this gap
BTCUSD Sell updateOn BTCUSD we were bearish on our previous analysis and we were waiting for price to push till our areas of interest, where we took sell positions. Currently as we can see price is pushing lower as we anticipated. Follow for more updates.
BTC is going down to 40kIt's probably going to 60k, maybe 40.
Fisher divergence and the daily and weekly.
BTC CME Short Model and Long ModelNow Bitcoin is in the Premium zone, where it is better to consider short positions for a short-term movement to the Discount zone. If the Market Maker goes for equal lows, which is a good exit point, or if the Market Maker goes long, then the exact entry will be better in the Discount zone, return to where the accumulation was, and see what candles will be formed at this level.
If we look at TOTAL 1 2 3, we will see that these assets are also in the Premium zone, which can also be good support for short positions.
Bitcoin (BTC) can hit all time high 119,620Fibonacci technical analysis : Bitcoin CME:BTC1! has already hit its first target at Fib level -27.2% (108,395) of my Up Fib. Price currently showing shallow consolidation with support at Fib level 23.6 % (91,920). As long as there are no Daily candles closing below Fib level 23.6% (91,920), my Up Fib guides me to look for Bitcoin to eventually hit its second target at Fib level -61.8% (119,620). I would not close any open positions on CME:BTC1! just yet.
I have a smaller Up Fib from 92,355 to 100,925. Last Daily candle (January 3) has closed above the Fib level 23.6% (98,905) which indicates a buy signal. Stop loss slightly below the 38.2% retracement Fib level (97,650).
Long on Bitcoin (BTC):
Short term Target 1 at 103,255, Target 2 at 106,220, Target 3 at 107,660
Long term Target 1 at 108,395 (already hit) and Target 2 at 119,620
BTCUSD Sell setupOn BTCUSD we are bearish for our next setup. Currently we are just sitting bach and waiting to see if price will push till our areas of interest, where we will be looking to take sell opportunities. Follow for more updates
BTC going to 74K ?!#BTC has a big gap in CME chart always gaps in this chart was filled in past and I think this gonna happen again so if we look down there is a demand zone around 70 - 74 K this huge drop can confirm that the bearish pattern in NASDAQ is right 👍
Bitcoin Forecast After 2024 - Why support at 82,000?Bitcoin's price at the close of December, marked by this inverted hammer, clearly indicates that a correction is imminent. However, the overall trend remains upward.
We will discuss the fundamental reasons why Bitcoin may have temporarily peaked in December 2024, as well as the potential support level around 82,000 this year. Let’s explore how we can manage Bitcoin following its peak above 100,000 as we move into 2025.
Micro Bitcoin Futures & Options
Ticker: MBT
Minimum fluctuation:
$5.00 per bitcoin = $0.50 per contract
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
BTC BREAK OR TOP?This is how I plan on fading BTC.
Here we are again trying to catch a BTC top, or at least hedge my way in when this thing eventually falls off a cliff. Ive always found that riding BTC lower is easier than trying to jump on rallies.
I have targets above that price might visit before tumbling lower but it's coming sooner or later.
BTC on a 3 month chart at the begging of the year and things don't look so good. I will again to attempt to catch the very top of the coming move down. I'm not married to my short idea but the risk reward is enough to get me interested.
I am Golb.
btc - RANGE + GAP bridgingPlease note, at the beginning of 2023, at the end of 2023 and now.
After the impulse growth, the gap was left, the price moved in the range, made a deviation from above and went to cover the gap.
Bitcoin Euphoria and that is not the name of a Muse Side note: PLS. DON'T KILL THE MESSENGER .(There is one company I recommend that will grow in price more than anything else. Crispr Therapeutics ticker symbol CrSp).
Bitcoin, despite its popularity, has several significant drawbacks:
Limited Acceptance: Bitcoins are still only accepted by a small group of online merchants, making it impractical to rely on them entirely as a currency
Wallet Vulnerability: If a hard drive crashes or a virus corrupts data, Bitcoin wallets can be lost, potentially bankrupting investors with no way to recover their funds
Price Volatility: The value of Bitcoin fluctuates constantly, causing difficulties in pricing goods and handling refunds
Lack of Buyer Protection: There's no recourse for reversing transactions if goods are not delivered after payment
Technical Vulnerabilities: As a relatively new system, Bitcoin could contain unexploited flaws that could potentially destroy its economy if widely adopted
Built-in Deflation: With a capped supply of 21 million coins, Bitcoin is designed to increase in value over time, potentially causing spending surges and economic instability
No Physical Form: Bitcoin cannot be directly used in physical stores, requiring conversion to other currencies
Lack of Valuation Guarantee: Without a central authority, there's no minimum valuation guarantee, leaving Bitcoin vulnerable to large-scale sell-offs
Environmental Impact: Bitcoin mining consumes significant energy, often from fossil fuels, contributing to carbon emissions and electronic waste
Scalability Issues: The Bitcoin network faces challenges in processing large numbers of transactions quickly, leading to slower transaction times during periods of high demand
Cybersecurity Risks: As a digital technology, Bitcoin is vulnerable to cybersecurity breaches and hacking attempts
Regulatory Uncertainty: The lack of comprehensive regulation increases the risk associated with investing in Bitcoin
High Transaction Fees: During times of network congestion, transaction fees can become prohibitively expensive
Complex Technology: The technical nature of Bitcoin can be challenging for some users to understand and navigate
Bitcoin transactions typically take between 10 to 60 minutes to complete, depending on network congestion and other factors.
Bitcoin's transaction time of 10 to 60 minutes significantly hinders its usability as a means of exchange for several reasons:
Slow Transaction Speed: The average confirmation time for a Bitcoin transaction is about 10 minutes, but it can extend up to an hour or more during periods of network congestion
Unpredictable Confirmation Times: Transaction times can vary wildly due to factors such as network activity, hashrate, and transaction fees
Multiple Confirmations Required: Many services require multiple confirmations for security reasons. Some exchanges may require 3 or more confirmations, which can extend the wait time to an hour or more
Network Congestion Issues: During periods of high demand, the Bitcoin network can become congested, leading to longer wait times and higher fees
Competitive Fee Structure: Users often need to compete by offering higher transaction fees to have their transactions processed quickly
Scalability Limitations: Bitcoin's block size limit of 1MB restricts the number of transactions that can be processed in each block, contributing to congestion during high-volume periods
Impracticality for Point-of-Sale: The delay in transaction confirmation makes Bitcoin unsuitable for point-of-sale transactions where immediate payment verification is necessary.
Volatility During Transaction Time: Given Bitcoin's price volatility, the value of the transaction could change significantly during the confirmation period, creating uncertainty for both parties involved.
These factors combined make Bitcoin challenging to use as a reliable, efficient means of exchange for everyday transactions, limiting its practical application in commerce compared to traditional payment methods that offer near-instantaneous confirmation.
The delays inherent in Bitcoin transactions significantly impact market making and pricing, leading to a situation where fractal market conditions exert a strong influence on cryptocurrency valuations. This phenomenon arises from several interconnected factors:
Transaction Confirmation Delays: Bitcoin transactions typically take 10 to 60 minutes to complete, depending on network congestion
Liquidity Fragmentation: The decentralized nature of cryptocurrency markets leads to liquidity being spread across multiple exchanges and platforms
Increased Risk for Market Makers: The volatility of crypto markets, coupled with transaction delays, significantly increases the risk for market makers
Algorithmic Trading Limitations: While algorithmic trading is common in crypto markets, the inherent delays in transaction confirmation limit the effectiveness of high-frequency trading strategies typically employed by market makers
Fractal Market Influence: Due to these limitations, cryptocurrency prices become more susceptible to fractal market conditions. Fractal patterns in market behavior, where similar price movements occur at different scales, become more prominent as traditional market-making techniques are less effective.
Price Discovery Challenges: The difficulty in efficient market making leads to challenges in accurate price discovery. Prices may not always reflect true market conditions due to the lag in information propagation and transaction execution
Vulnerability to Market Manipulation: The combination of delays and fragmented liquidity makes crypto markets more susceptible to manipulation tactics like cornering the market, especially in less liquid cryptocurrencies
Adaptive Strategies: To cope with these challenges, market makers must continuously adapt their quotes based on real-time market data and employ more sophisticated risk management techniques
In conclusion, the inherent delays in Bitcoin transactions create an environment where traditional market-making strategies are severely hampered. This situation allows fractal market conditions to play a more significant role in price determination, as the market lacks the stabilizing influence of efficient, real-time market making. The result is a more volatile and potentially less efficient pricing mechanism in cryptocurrency markets compared to traditional financial markets.
The theory presented aligns with fractal analysis in cryptocurrency trading, particularly when applied to Bitcoin's price movements. Let's expand on this concept and correlate it with fractal patterns:
Fractal Wave Structure: The price movement of Bitcoin from its inception to $100,000 can be viewed as a series of self-similar fractal waves:
Wave 1: 0 to $60,000
Wave 2: $60,000 to $34,000 (retracement)
Wave 3: $34,000 to $100,000
Self-Similarity Principle: These waves demonstrate the fractal principle of self-similarity across different scales. Each wave shows similar patterns of rapid growth followed by a correction, but at different magnitudes.
Fibonacci Retracements: The proposed retracement to around $50,000 aligns with common Fibonacci retracement levels often observed in fractal patterns. A move from $34,000 to $100,000, followed by a retracement to $50,000, would represent a typical Fibonacci retracement of about 61.8%.
Wave Theory Application: This pattern resembles Elliott Wave Theory, a form of fractal analysis in financial markets. The current situation could be interpreted as the end of a third wave, typically followed by a fourth wave correction.
Fractal Repetition: If this fractal pattern holds, we might expect the retracement to $50,000 to be followed by another bullish wave, potentially reaching new highs beyond $100,000.
Time Invariance: Fractal analysis suggests that these patterns can occur across different time frames. The same pattern might be observable in shorter timeframes within each larger wave.
Market Psychology: These fractal waves often reflect market psychology cycles of enthusiasm, doubt, and renewed confidence, which tend to repeat at various scales.
Risk and Volatility: The fractal nature of these price movements underscores Bitcoin's inherent volatility and the risks associated with trading based on pattern recognition alone.
While this fractal analysis provides an interesting perspective on Bitcoin's price movements, it's important to note that past patterns do not guarantee future performance. The cryptocurrency market is influenced by numerous factors beyond technical patterns, including regulatory changes, technological developments, and macroeconomic conditions.
A more bearish perspective on Bitcoin reveals significant vulnerabilities that could lead to its potential downfall:
Lack of Intrinsic Value: Bitcoin has no intrinsic value and is not backed by any tangible assets or commodities
Regulatory Risks: The absence of a clear regulatory framework makes Bitcoin vulnerable to sudden policy changes that could severely impact its value and usability
Volatility and Instability: Bitcoin's price is extremely volatile, making it unreliable as a store of value or medium of exchange
Lack of Consumer Protection: Without a central authority or backing, Bitcoin offers no recourse for fraud or theft, leaving investors exposed to significant risks
Environmental Concerns: The energy-intensive nature of Bitcoin mining faces growing criticism, potentially leading to regulatory crackdowns or loss of public support
Scalability Issues: Bitcoin's limited transaction capacity and high fees during network congestion make it impractical for widespread adoption as a payment system
Potential for Market Manipulation: The concentration of Bitcoin ownership among a small number of holders makes the market susceptible to manipulation and sudden price swings
Threat to Monetary Policy: Widespread adoption of Bitcoin could undermine governments' ability to implement effective monetary policies, potentially leading to economic instability
Bubble Characteristics: The rapid price appreciation and speculative fervor surrounding Bitcoin bear hallmarks of a classic bubble, which could burst dramatically
Lack of Institutional Safeguards: Unlike traditional financial systems, Bitcoin has no lender of last resort, deposit insurance, or other protections against systemic failures
Given these factors, the current retracement in Bitcoin's price might not find support at $50,000. Instead, it could trigger a more severe decline, potentially leading to a complete loss of confidence. The crypto market's history of boom-and-bust cycles, coupled with recent high-profile failures like FTX, has already shaken investor trust
In a worst-case scenario, Bitcoin could follow the path of other speculative manias throughout history, experiencing a dramatic collapse as reality sets in and the market loses faith in its long-term viability. Without the backing of a government, central bank, or tangible assets, there's no floor to Bitcoin's potential decline
The combination of regulatory pressures, environmental concerns, and the emergence of more stable and efficient blockchain technologies could render Bitcoin obsolete. As institutional investors become more wary and retail enthusiasm wanes, Bitcoin could fade into obscurity, remembered as a cautionary tale of speculative excess rather than a revolutionary financial innovation.
Bitcoin's fundamental issues could lead to a severe market correction, potentially causing its abandonment as a speculative mania:
Lack of Intrinsic Value: Bitcoin has no inherent value, backed by neither commodities nor a productive economy. Its worth is purely speculative, making it vulnerable to sudden loss of confidence.
No Jurisdiction or Legal Framework: Bitcoin operates in a regulatory gray area, lacking the protection of any specific legal system. This absence of clear jurisdiction creates significant risks for investors and users.
No Tax Base or Government Backing: Unlike fiat currencies, Bitcoin isn't supported by a nation's tax base or government. This lack of institutional support makes it unstable and unreliable as a long-term store of value.
Absence of Military Protection: There's no army or police force to protect Bitcoin holdings or enforce ownership rights, leaving it vulnerable to cyber attacks and theft without recourse.
Extreme Volatility: Bitcoin's price swings are notoriously violent, making it unsuitable as a reliable medium of exchange or stable investment.
Limited Real-World Utility: Despite over a decade of existence, Bitcoin's use in everyday transactions remains limited, questioning its viability as a currency.
Regulatory Risks: Governments worldwide are increasingly scrutinizing cryptocurrencies, with the potential for regulations that could severely restrict Bitcoin's use and value.
Market Manipulation: The concentration of Bitcoin ownership among a small number of "whales" makes the market susceptible to manipulation.
Technological Obsolescence: As blockchain technology evolves, Bitcoin's first-mover advantage may erode, potentially rendering it obsolete.
Bubble Characteristics: The rapid price appreciation and speculative fervor surrounding Bitcoin bear hallmarks of a classic bubble.
Given these factors, the current retracement might not find support at $50,000. Instead, it could trigger a more severe decline, potentially leading to a complete loss of confidence. The crypto market's history of boom-and-bust cycles has already shaken investor trust.
In a worst-case scenario, Bitcoin could follow the path of other speculative manias throughout history, experiencing a dramatic collapse as reality sets in. Without the backing of a government, central bank, or tangible assets, there's no floor to Bitcoin's potential decline.
As institutional investors become more wary and retail enthusiasm wanes, Bitcoin could fade into obscurity, remembered as a cautionary tale of speculative excess rather than a revolutionary financial innovation. The retracement could extend far beyond $50,000, potentially leading to Bitcoin being abandoned as the market recognizes its fundamental limitations and risks.
In conclusion:
Bitcoin can be analogized to virtual assets found in online games, where players buy and sell non-existent items that hold value only in the minds of the participants. Just as gamers invest real money into purchasing virtual goods—like skins, weapons, or characters—that have no physical existence, Bitcoin operates within a similar framework.
Key Comparisons:
Perceived Value: In both cases, the value is entirely based on collective belief. Players assign worth to virtual items based on rarity, aesthetics, or utility within the game, while Bitcoin's value is determined by market sentiment and speculation.
Lack of Tangibility: Just as virtual items have no physical form and exist solely within the confines of a digital environment, Bitcoin is a digital currency with no intrinsic value or backing by tangible assets.
Market Dynamics: The prices of both Bitcoin and virtual game items can fluctuate wildly based on trends, player interest, and market speculation. A new game update might make certain items more desirable, just as news events can cause Bitcoin's price to soar or plummet.
Speculative Nature: Both Bitcoin and virtual assets attract speculators hoping to profit from price changes rather than using them for their intended purposes. Many players buy virtual items with the hope that their value will increase over time, similar to how investors approach Bitcoin.
Community-Driven Economy: The economies surrounding both Bitcoin and virtual game assets are driven by community engagement. The value of each is sustained by the active participation of users who believe in their worth.
In essence, Bitcoin functions much like these virtual game assets—valuable only because people collectively agree they are valuable, existing in a realm where reality is shaped by perception rather than tangible backing or utility.
The science behind players' attraction to slot machines in casinos reveals a complex interplay of psychological and neurological factors:
Reward System Activation: Slot machines trigger the brain's reward system, releasing dopamine when players win, even with small victories
Variable Ratio Reinforcement: Slots use an unpredictable reward schedule, which is highly effective in maintaining player engagement. The brain constantly anticipates the next reward, leading to prolonged playing sessions
Sensory Stimulation: Modern slot machines employ a combination of lights, sounds, and graphics to create an immersive environment. This sensory stimulation enhances the overall experience and keeps players engaged
Illusion of Control: Features like stopping the reels or choosing bonus options give players a false sense of control over the outcome, despite results being determined by random number generators
Escape and Immersion: Slot machines offer an escape from reality, allowing players to enter a state of "dark flow" where they become completely absorbed in the game. This state can be particularly appealing to individuals dealing with depression or negative thoughts
Near-Misses: The frequency of near-miss outcomes in slot games creates a sense of almost winning, encouraging players to continue in the belief that a win is imminent
Cognitive Biases: Players often develop cognitive biases, such as believing their chances of winning are higher than they actually are. This subjective reality keeps them engaged with the game
Social Interaction: The social aspect of playing slots, whether in-person or online, adds to their appeal and can enhance the overall experience
Uncertainty and Excitement: The possibility of winning big creates an exciting and thrilling experience, tapping into players' desire for risk and reward
Understanding these psychological mechanisms is crucial for both casino operators and players. While they contribute to the entertainment value of slot machines, they can also lead to problematic gambling behaviors if not recognized and managed responsibly.
The psychological mechanisms behind slot machine gaming and Bitcoin speculation share several striking similarities:
Variable Ratio Reinforcement: Both slot machines and Bitcoin trading provide unpredictable rewards. This inconsistent reinforcement schedule is highly effective in maintaining engagement, as the brain constantly anticipates the next potential win
Dopamine Release: Winning in slots or seeing Bitcoin prices rise triggers a dopamine rush, creating feelings of pleasure and euphoria. This neurochemical response can lead to addictive behaviors as individuals seek to replicate the "high"
Illusion of Control: Slot machine players often believe they can influence outcomes by stopping reels or choosing bonus options. Similarly, Bitcoin traders may overestimate their ability to predict market movements, leading to an illusion of control over inherently unpredictable systems
Continuous Availability: Both activities offer 24/7 accessibility, potentially leading to excessive engagement and difficulty in self-regulation
Sensory Stimulation: Slot machines use lights and sounds to create an immersive environment. Bitcoin trading platforms often employ similar tactics with real-time price charts and notifications, keeping users engaged
Loss Aversion: In both scenarios, individuals often feel losses more intensely than gains, leading to "chasing" behaviors to recover losses
FOMO (Fear of Missing Out): The potential for big wins in slots or significant price increases in Bitcoin can create a powerful fear of missing out, driving continued participation
Cognitive Biases: Both activities are subject to various cognitive biases, such as the gambler's fallacy or overconfidence, which can lead to irrational decision-making
Escapism: Both slot machines and Bitcoin trading can offer an escape from reality, allowing individuals to enter a state of immersion or "flow"
These shared psychological factors contribute to the potentially addictive nature of both slot machine gaming and Bitcoin speculation, highlighting the need for awareness and responsible engagement in these activities.
The realization that a peak has been reached, particularly in the context of Bitcoin speculation or gambling, can be a harsh and disillusioning experience:
Euphoric Climax: Intense excitement as prices or winnings reach unprecedented heights Feeling of invincibility and financial genius Dreams of continued success and life-changing wealth
Sudden Reversal: Abrupt shift as prices plummet or luck turns Panic sets in as gains rapidly evaporate Desperate attempts to recoup losses, often leading to further losses
Harsh Reality Sets In: Crushing realization that the peak was temporary Severe disappointment and self-doubt Financial stress as losses mount
Psychological Aftermath:Deep regret over not selling/quitting at the peak Depression and anxiety about financial future Loss of self-esteem and confidence in decision-making abilities
Social Consequences: Embarrassment over previous boasting about gains Strained relationships due to financial losses Isolation as one avoids discussing the situation
Cognitive Dissonance:Difficulty accepting the new reality Clinging to false hope of a quick recovery Denial about the extent of losses
Long-term Effects:Trust issues with financial systems or self Potential development of risk aversion or gambling addiction Lasting financial impact affecting life plans and goals
This sobering experience often leaves individuals feeling betrayed by their own optimism and the promises of easy wealth, leading to a profound disillusionment with speculative investments or gambling activities.
As computing becomes ever faster, cracking codes and crypto wallets will be ever more common. A currency has to have a bill and physical representation of its value, and be defended by tangible items.......
The moral of the story, iis simple, what is baking the virtual price you paid for Bitcoin? The answer is nothing.....
