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Bitcoin / US Dollar Inverse Futures Contract (Jan 2025)Bitcoin / US Dollar Inverse Futures Contract (Jan 2025)Bitcoin / US Dollar Inverse Futures Contract (Jan 2025)

Bitcoin / US Dollar Inverse Futures Contract (Jan 2025)

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BTCUSDF2025 trade ideas

BTC: Crypto Bull Market Appears to Take HoldCME: Micro BTC ( CME:MBT1! ) A month’s ago, I published a trade idea titled “S&P 500: Expensive but Not Overpriced.” The S&P index closed at 4,409.16 on June 16th, placing it at one standard deviation above the three-year mean (µ) of 4027.2 at the time. On July 14th, the S&P settled at 4,505.42, up 100 points and +2.2% within a month. Market data has confirmed my bullish assessment. However, higher prices also mean that the index is getting more expensive now and edging closer to the “overpriced” territory. The S&P reached its all-time high of 4796.56 on January 3rd, 2022. Current price level is just 5.7% below this record. It takes a lot to make the case for a new high. Everything needs to work out just right – inflation, employment, GDP, etc. It probably could happen somewhere down the road when the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates. Meanwhile, there are “less expensive” financial instruments to consider if you are looking for ways to allocate your asset. On March 29th, I issued this trade idea – “Crypto Staged a Strong Comeback in Q1”. Cryptocurrencies rebounded strongly amid turmoil in the financial markets. Bitcoin and ETH gained 71% and 39% in Q1, respectively. The main driver was flight-to-safety when a series of US bank failures shocked the financial markets. On July 16th, BTC/USD closed at $30,394, up $2,300 since I wrote the report, and gained 83% year-to-date. While this year’s crypto rebound has been remarkable, spot bitcoin price is still -$38,395, or -55.8% off its record high of $68,789.63. Plotting BTC and E-Mini S&P 500 futures in a 5-year timeframe, we find that both reached their all-time high in the last two years. The S&P experienced a 20% drawdown last year, driven by high inflation and Fed rate hikes. It regained 26% from its October low when the fundamentals were reversed – lower inflation and the potential of Fed Pivot. Bitcoin followed the same general trend as the S&P but is more speculative in nature. Bitcoin rose ten times in one year, only to crush by 80 percent in the following year. Since its November low, bitcoin price has nearly doubled, but it is only halfway to its recent high. The Crypto Market Shrugged off its Biggest Fear In the March 29th trade idea, I expressed concern about the unique risk in the Crypto market – the failure of systemic important infrastructure that could doom the entire market. Last year, the collapses of stablecoin terraUSD, the No. 2 crypto Exchange FTX and crypto lender Silvergate sent spot bitcoin price from FWB:67K all the way to $16K. The entire Crypto market lost $1.4 trillion in market valuation. Last month, the SEC sanctioned the largest crypto Exchange Binance for violations of US securities laws. Bitcoin pulled back a few percentage points and then quickly recovered. Why the market reacted coolly this time around? Unlike the sudden demise of FTX, the SEC charges to Binance were well anticipated. Investors absorbed the news and took actions in an orderly fashion, escaping a market panic. In my view, investors have regained confidence in the crypto market, following all the turmoil. Supporting my view is Coinbase’ YTD performance ( NASDAQ:COIN ). The publicly traded US Crypto Exchange has received multiple regulatory charges and lawsuits. However, its stock is up 214% YTD. Coinbase reportedly had 108 million users in 2022, up from 56 million in 2021. The news headlines around BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF prospects boost institutional investor sentiment, too. Last Thursday, BlackRock's application to offer a spot Bitcoin ETF has been added to the official docket of the SEC as part of its proposed rule change process. The large investor base in both individual and institutional markets will be a big catalyst to lift bitcoin higher in a secular bull market. Micro BTC Futures CME Micro BTC futures (MBT) is a low-cost trading tool to participate in the crypto market. Contract notional is 1/10 of 1 BTC. Initial margin is $760. What this means is a 400% leverage built in the futures contract. At market price of $30,235 per bitcoin, the $760 margin is equivalent to about 25% of the contract notional value of $3,023.50. Micro BTC is trading in US dollars that tracks the bitcoin price index. Both the initial investment and the returns are in dollar terms. Traders do not need to worry about the security of their Crypto wallet or forgetting their privacy key. While investing in the CME market, investors could rest assured that their money is free from default risk and counter-party risk. In its 175-year history, there was never a case of clearing member default resulting in a loss of customer fund. Happy trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME:MBT1!Long
by JimHuangChicago
1
Last Short (eng)Last Short (Futures). Salute to readers enough water has passed since the last article was written. The last trade I published was unfortunately unprofitable. 6 percent licked like a cow with its tongue. it cheered me up and made me reflect on my approach. I didn't publish the moment of re-shoeing - it was too fast. And the residue remained - both for me and for investors (the plus from the next deal overlapped the minus). Still, I decided to change my approach a little and trade spot with leverage rather than messing around with futures. still believe in the Legend of the asset) (deflationary nature and the second decade of history). Depending on the exchange traded, I will either go into cash or open a x1 short increasing the number of coins. Investor approach - so investor approach Current entry - short 29625. If yesterday could not change anything in the market behavior. then the time of the bears is back. albeit short-term.
CME:BTC1!Short
by mr_Plusoviu
1
RISING WEDGEToday's push has turned our consolidation pattern into a very solid rising wedge/ rising flag. The probability that this will break out to the downside is higher than to the upside, but with enough bullish momo, this pattern can be invalidated and price could spill upward. If we breakout to the downside odds are we will find support at the yellow TL, HVN, or D1 VPOC. If this is a 'starter wave', then it could do a full retrace back to 24,700. If we spill up, I think a fib 1.5 - 2.0 target could be achievable. I think the probability of a downward exit from the rising pattern is the more likely outcome from this region. If 25k does not hold, below that there is a gap from 20-22k that BTC could look to fill. Below that is the 19-20k area that has historically seen strong volume where BTC could look for support. Mind the levels, and keep it green!
CME:BTC1!
by MtGoxFX
Bitcoin - Balance Amidst FUDDigital currencies are not something you should be fundamentally bullish on, because this current generation of "decentralized" tokens that are really centralized in the hands of a few co-opted developers and a number of Chinese Communist Party-linked miners and entities aren't intended to be kept. What's intended is for a global system of Central Bank Digital Currencies to replace all existing national currencies, becoming the "One Ring." If you don't believe it, FedNow is already live and settling transactions instantly between US banks. Another reason you should be bearish on crypto fundamentally is because it's a part of the CCP's shadow banking system used by the Triad and United Front Work Department to corrupt and bribe and fund foreign influence operations. Xi Jinping is responsible for all of this if he fails to throw the CCP away and return to tradition. And Bitcoin is also implicitly bloodied in the 24-year-long persecution of Falun Gong and its organ harvesting campaign conducted by now-dead former Chairman Jiang Zemin and its Shanghai (Babylon) toad faction. Bitcoin won't be kept. If there are digital currencies in the future, it will be JP Morgan's proprietary Ethereum fork, which SWIFT itself has been piloting a layer on top of for what's coming in the future. But since we're a ways away from that yet, there's a number of opportunities that still remain here. I'm focusing on CME Futures because Binance and the spot exchanges don't matter. If you were around in '17 when CME/CBOE Futures launched you know everything changed literally the minute futes markets opened. This declining trendline stuff is going to get taken out. It should get taken out pretty quick too, with CPI and FOMC pending on Tuesday and Wednesday. And so with the dump on the news of "market makers extracting their liquidity" or whatever it was over the weekend and the Friday night dump that causes futures to re-open gapped down we have a setup. The call is that the MM will raid the $25,000 psychological level, which takes out the June Low of the Month where long stops will be triggered. This will take longs out of the game and prevent them from selling to buy orders around $29,000, which is where the big cowboys want to get short. They want to get short because we're going back to $16,500, so everyone can capitulate for a few months, before the final coup de grace that has been arranged somewhere around $55,000. So you want to keep a balanced perspective amidst this FUD surrounding Binance getting sued. Tether won't be destroyed until Bitcoin is flirting with $50,000 again. You get an 18%~ long opportunity to $29,000 with a 4.78 R/R if you regard the $24,000 gap to be poison, because after all these months, touching it again is probably a harbinger of doom. And then you can use those profits to finance a stop loss for a short from $29,600~ all the way to the bottom and on a time frame that is probably two or three months at most. What I really want to say to everyone who's been involved with crypto is this: You need to wash your hands and practice social distancing from the Chinese Communist Party. You need to quit the Party and make up for the bad things you've done to help that regime and its persecution of the entire human race continue all these years. If you don't, it's not just your bank accounts that will suffer "cascading liquidation."
CME:BTC1!Long
by LordWrymouth
1
$BTC calls & what we expect, reiteration.We've laid out the CRYPTOCAP:BTC game plan many times. More often than not, it came into fruition and many times almost to the T. Most recently this is what we noticed. The week of: June 21 we said #BTC was likely going higher. (it did) June 30 Outside day. (still waiting on outcome) July 7 we said down channel. (it's been slow descent) Current we said #bitcoin is in Symmetrical Triangle. (waiting - usually continuation pattern) --- So what do we think about CRYPTOCAP:BTC at the moment? After the weakness we expected in early July, it should subside soon, the likeliest outcome for #BTC is higher. Don't usually make calls, but IMO, #bitcoin will likely reach the low - mid 40k. We said this some time ago as well. The real run, it will most likely be next year. TVC:DXY crashing should help.
CME:BTC1!
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
CME ETF Premium Fizzling out BlackRock Had refiled for a ETF for BTC with coinbase But the Premium has started too fizzle Decent ROI on a short targeting 28k if this Range POC Acts as a Area of support too the downside I think we could see that 28k are get hit if spot selling occurs 29700 spot market area too watch hold The CME Premium is coming back closer too Perp price witch is a tell tail of risk off letting this parameter play out a Short from the 31k rejection This morning CPI news Is a good hold too let ride down
CME:BTC1!Short
by bryptobro
BTC! - New long set up emerging Held two critical milestones - 1. 200 DMA, 2. breakout level backtest at 25000. Now might pullback from 60 VMA, but if it continues to build above, 37000 is likely on the next leg. if it loses 25000, watch out as things might turn ugly not just for BTC, but overall market because whether you like if or not, BTC has been the canary in the coalmine. Anytime BTC has shown strength, equities have followed. Crypto might not be dead yet, but alive and kicking hard. Disclosure: No position.
CME:BTC1!Long
by CheelooTrader
$BTC vs $TOTAL 3, broke up, made up, but what about now?CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL 3 = NO CRYPTOCAP:BTC or CRYPTOCAP:ETH VS #Bitcoin futures (this dictates price action, NOT spot) From Nov 3/22 - March 3/23. #Altcoins traded lower in December while #BTC had already bottomed. However, the #crypto #altcoin market quickly caught up and by early January they were trading similarly. ------- Until... April - May CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3 decoupled and the #crypto #altcoin market began to drop FASTER & MORE than, its counterpart #BTC. SEC FUD certainly hurt BUT this happened BEFORE that news came out. We even mentioned it many times, documented! Come June 10-15 #Altcoins began to trade alongside #Bitcoin again. What about now? ------- CRYPTOCAP:BTC is in CONSOLIDATION mode. Buy volume is mediocre but as long as no heavy selling anymore, that's good. RSI must stay above 50. Price levels > 29.75 best to hold @ worst 28.8. CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3 has work to do but buys are coming in. Not heavy but hopeful. RSI looks ok. Weekly chart: Highs are lower BUT it did form a higher low. 1 white line will break within next 2 months! (apologize that all the charts mentioned cannot be shown. Pls see profile for more info)
CME:BTC1!
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
Bitcoin Hello, everyone! I wanted to share my thoughts on the Bitcoin market situation. It has been relatively quiet for Bitcoin in the past week, as its price has been trading within a narrow range. Typically, after such consolidations, we experience a strong impulse in one direction. Currently, it's hard to predict where exactly this impulse will go. In such moments, it's best to follow a strategy of "preservation first." That's why I have placed a limit order in the marked zone where I can buy Bitcoin at more favorable prices if there is a decline. And if the price goes up, that's great too because I already have some Bitcoin in my portfolio. If I add more specifics, I am leaning towards an upward move, so I won't be opening a short position (selling the asset in anticipation of further price decrease). Feel free to leave your comments and wishes, and let's stay connected regarding the further developments in the Bitcoin market!
CME:BTC1!Long
by CHOWTRADE
2
BTC Dip Before Rise - BITCOIN CME FUTURES GAP ANALYSISCME gap closures are a strong indicator for BTC behaviour because the formed gaps have a chance of over 90% to be closed. We should therefore always consider CME futures gaps to be closed with a very high chance. Current situation: We are approaching the 20K-21K gap which is close to major support around 16,5K-17,5K area. Expect price to dip down before we might see a trend continuation. If we won't break the low - fake break out - that will be a healthy sign since we would be forming a new higher low which is good for overall bullish market structure. First goals: 1. There is an open gap around @ 20K-21K. 2. Another gap to the upside @ 34,5K-35K. HAPPY TRADING! <3
CME:BTC1!Short
by Traderfriends
1
Russia's Ministry of Finance proposes to ban the organization ofA source familiar with the situation said that the Russian Ministry of Finance has prepared a relevant amendment to the cryptocurrency mining bill, which proposes to prohibit the organization of the circulation of cryptocurrencies, with the exception of the mining of stablecoins and cryptocurrencies. Currently, the purchase/sale, circulation and trading of cryptocurrencies are allowed in Russia, only the use of cryptocurrencies as a means of payment and advertisements that use cryptocurrencies for payment are prohibited. Two security agencies opposed the Treasury's amendment. In an opinion, the Federal Security Service (FSB) said that the definition of organizing the circulation of digital currencies should exhaustively disclose all the characteristics of the process. The Commission of Inquiry (IC) believes that applying the wording proposed by the Ministry of Finance may create confusion between "prohibited circulation of organizations" and "prohibited circulation", which in turn would lead to legal uncertainty.
CME:BTC1!
by babs83902
$BTC losing steam intraday & dailyCRYPTOCAP:BTC is losing steam, fast Closed bunch of positions as yesterday #BTC showed weakness. This continues today. The 4Hr is about to bear crossover, something it hasn't done since trading above June 16th. The 1Hr chart is severely oversold so we could get a small bounce here before we continue to rollover a bit. What about bitcoin VOLUME? (Sorry cannot show 1Minute here. Pls see profile for more info) That CRYPTOCAP:BTC drop on 6/30 bugged me (outside day) a bit. There was heavy SELLS BUT Only decent to so-so BUYS. However, the conviction that was there this whole ride up is now LACKING. Just for giggles... Spot #BTC already breaking down... But if you want the proper price action, Futures #bitcoin facing support around 30230.
CME:BTC1!
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
Bitcoin hits Fibo retracement allow for near term consolidationBitcoin has reached its 50% retracement of the move we saw in 2022 and the new high has been accompanied by a divergence of the daily RSI. This suggests a loss of upside momentum at this key level of resistance and some likely near-term consolidation. The 55-day ma around 28000 is likely to act as near-term support. Longer term we do have some double Fibonacci retracements above the market and just as an observational point I have noted that these tend to act as a magnet for price. So, beyond some near-term consolidation we would expect further upside moves. Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
CME:BTC1!
by The_STA
Every CME that is open right now.I have put some effort into this update of my CME chart, and I believe I have covered everything. Although CMEs do expire, I have marked all of the "open ones" in this case. The main reason I focus on CME gaps is that when I see a price heading towards a gap, there is a higher likelihood of it being reached. So if my take profit (TP) is close to a gap, I would typically set the TP closer to the gap instead. I hope this information is as helpful to you as CME has been to me over the years. If you're interested, you can check out my profile and join me and others in the community I am involved with.
CME:BTC1!
by CryptoBanda
$BTC holding well, still think we chug higherMany thought CRYPTOCAP:BTC would sell off hard after this recent run up. We're one of the few accounts that stated that there was LIGHT weakness & doubtful it would be a hard correction. This time it felt DIFFERENT. The movement was not the same as the previous run up. #BTC making it's move after the OUTSIDE DAY we spoke about. Spot #bitcoin is following, as usual. No real trader or investor uses spot as a gauge for price action. Maybe only on the weekend. Volume coming back 🎉
CME:BTC1!
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
Bitcoin Cup & Handle!CME:BTC1! Printed an Inverse Head & Shoulders or Cup & Handle as one would interpret. Critical level to flip is 31.5k. Reclaiming this as support could be potential impetus to 48k $BTC. Buildup still printing so aggressive traders could already take positions. If you are new, be careful! If this level does not flip then possible short position executions available. To pull targets, you can view my idea here which still holds: tinyurl.com Always having Plan A and Plan B scenarios so we can react once the markets provide an opportunity to execute our edge. If you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations.
CME:BTC1!
by imr4nkh8n
Will Bitcoin Hit $20k or $35k First?Bitcoin is currently facing an intriguing situation with two significant gaps in its price chart. The first one, at 35,000, has remained open for over 420 days, making it one of the longest-running gaps in Bitcoin's history. Simultaneously, there is another gap at 20,000, which presents a compelling scenario. Examining the risk-to-reward ratio, initiating a position at 30,000 is 1:2 ratio. As the current price of Bitcoin steadily approaches the 35,000 mark, the question arises: which gap will be filled first, the one at 20,000 or 35,000?
CME:BTC1!
by hightableandy