AAL is amazing for long sellers but terrible for shortAAL is suffering from a drop to 12 dollars in the stock market and it’s a great opportunity for long sellers. AAL is sure to recover and hit around its old price meaning we could potentially double our money. Sadly there is a pre existing downtrend that might affect the stock growth after the initial surge up, but I’m not sure so don’t be worried. My chart for American Airlines is actually the worst case scenario that I can see happening since it goes below the price before the drop and has it decrease over time. It might be better than this so long sellers should love this stock.
AAL trade ideas
AAL American Airlines - Burning Through $70 million A DayAmerican Airlines 1st Quarter numbers are in. As expected, they weren't good.
AAL just posted its biggest loss since the Great Recession in 2008 as they lost $2.2 Billion. In the 2nd quarter they are burning through $70 million dollars per day. SO if you're wondering how the 2nd quarter numbers will look, that should give you somewhat of an idea. US airline travel is down approximately 95% compared to the same time last year. In attempts to cut costs, around 39,000 employees have volunteered for unpaid pr partially paid leave.
Brief reminder, airlines can most definitely fail. American Airlines is still fresh off it's bankruptcy that occurred in late 2011.
Technical:
Stock prices at the moments seem to be pure gambles as some are completing deviating from TA and fundamentals. Would only buy to go in and out for quick trades. We're not long on airlines until we see flights filing up again. If going long for a quick scalp, look for support around $10.45 and $9.00 with a tight stop loss. As per bottom, we've seen some consolidation in the current region we're in but we're not yet comfortable here. Any further drops we can look at $6.94, $4.55, & $1.09.
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AAL may be coiling for a move upEarnings tomorrow. One to watch.
Been on our watchlist for a while due to the insane RSI divergence.
We only have shares at the moment with an average price/share around $10. However, we may move to calls depending on how it does tomorrow and rest of the week. If not, no worries, can hold shares for a while.
AAL "Long" I had a long from 10.02 but closed it at 10.80.. then I noticed AAL broke some resistances and also the channel it was sitting on which made me buy some calls for tomorrow! American Airlines earning date is on April 30 which is probably when the big shorts will come in..
Airlines have been one of the worst-performing stocks lately while many other companies that are closed have still pumped.. maybe its time AAL shines for a couple of days!
Resistance lines are shown, we ideally wanna keep 11.14 holding if we are going to shoot for 12+ tomorrow.. maybe FOMO will get to people who knows..
Good Luck!
American Airlines AAL long. This is similar to Delta airlines. Very possible to swing up. High probability. Needs patience. They got funding. They have crappy debt. No cash on hand. And financials aren’t so great. But they are America’s airline. And they are the worlds largest airline. America won’t let this airline fail. At 10$ it’s a steal. Check out YouTube for the CEO talking about the funding they received from the government.
RISKY AAL "LONG"We have a pretty strong resistance at $10.. we have broken it once which resulted in a 40% BOUNCE! I bought some calls in hope of a strong bounce.
Earnings date is 4/24 (on Friday) which will make this a risky long, stop loss for traders would be 9.05..
Good Luck! I am not a professional.
Red day for AAL tomorrowBased on the channel right now and with sentiment going into earnings this can easily hit 8-9 range before Friday. As long as the hit comes in where people are expecting or it's better then we will get a great bounce. If it's worse then this can fall into the 6-8 range with a bounce back to 9 a few days later. Just my game plan on this. Gonna wait for it to fall below 9 before I load up for a long. Counting on the Algos to freak out.
AAL Showing a Good Sign with its Market BehaviourWelcome to Profitlio Trading!
What's up traders! Thanks for Jumping back on my Analysis, Traderchamp is here on your Service, Also hit thumbs up and support the work.
This is going to be a perfect sign for gains in AAL market. As of it failed to break the diagonal support it has formed. Look into the highlighted eclipse and good place for a long term buying opportunities. Sketch up your own trade setup before you take off. Our Previous selling banked with 100+ Pips and Good Luck!
Profitlio Trading ( Since 2014 in Financial Markets )
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$AAL EPS Projection = -$2.47 / Falling WedgeI will be looking for $AAL to follow this falling wedge downwards and likely lag till earnings. Earnings may cause more downside.
Wall Street Journal EPS Projection: -$1.83
More realistic EPS: -$2.47
I believe revenue projections are heavily understated as shown by Ford.
$UAL has quarterly revenues under 10 billion and predicted a revenue loss in march alone at 1.5 billion . $AAL I am betting will have lost more revenue than 1.5 billion in March.
If we take into account $UAL projecting losses of 1.5billion in March when their revenue is under 10 billion a quarter it is safe to say that $AAL would lose 1.5 billion in revenue as well, which is generous because they could have lost more.
Projected Revenues/Expenses/Net Income/EPS
Operating Expense for Q1: 10.157 billion
Operating Expenses for January: 3.386 billion
Operating Expenses for February: 3.386 billion
Operating Expenses for March: 3.386 billion
Operating Revenue for Q1: 10.757 billion
Operating Revenue for January: 3.585 billion
Operating Revenue for February: 3.585 billion
Operating Revenue for March if it were a normal month, based on trends: 3.585 billion
Non operating expenses: 158 million
Net income in January: 200 million
Net income in February: 200 million (generous)
Expected losses in revenue for March: 1.5 billion
Expected Operating revenue for March: 2.085 billion.
Net income in March: -1.3billion
200 mill + 200 mill -1.3billion - 158 million = -1.058 billion before taxes
No clue how this loss would be taxed, so let's just leave that alone, but this means their real net income after tax will be worse than -1.058 billion
-1.058 billion / 428.2million weighted outstanding shares = -$2.47 EPS or worse.
This is important because a normal falling wedge like this would break towards the upside, however if earnings are truly this bad I believe there may be more downside.
American Airlines (AAL) Pros
Trading at 68% below its fair value Earnings are forecast to grow 29% per year
AAL returned 33.2% last week AAL is good value based on its PE Ratio (3.3)
AAL is good value based on its PEG Ratio (0.1)
AALs Return on Equity is forecast to be very high in 3 years' time.
AALs dividend (3.2%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.82%)
During the past 3 Months, Insiders have bought 54000 shares (approx $1.1m)
Cons
AALs Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow
Has an unstable dividend track record Highly volatile share price over the past 3 months
Down 63.9% over the last year
AALs revenue is forecasted to grow slower than the US market per year
AAL had a large 1 off loss of $652.0M impacting its December 31, 2019, financial results
AALs earnings have declined by -31.8% per year over the past 5 years
AAL has negative shareholder equity, which is more serious than a high level of debt
Banks/Funds have been downgrading AAL
Report:
From a technical standpoint, rising trendline support held at 886, however, we broke sharply out of the descending channel at (A) to the downside which we really need to get back inside and stay above resistance at (1). A break out of the descending channel to the upside and above resistance would be considered a buy signal (based on chart pattern analysis). Technical Indicators are showing early signs of curling, which 'could' suggest that the bottom is in. But further confirmation of this is necessary. From a Fundamental standpoint, the data is mixed (as listed above).
Bottomcatchers Opinion:
In our opinion, the mixed fundamental data is slightly skewed positive, which suggests future growth looks promising. However, the technical chart is showing a risk/reward ratio that's skewed negatively (at this stage). That's not to say this security is not a good buy, it simply means caution is needed. Buying above resistance which comes in at 1503 would be considered an aggressive buy, but one that could play out providing we stay above resistance. A break out of the descending channel to the upside would be good confirmation that we are probably in an uptrend. So with all the information, we have to work with, my call for this trade would be to buy above resistance and use the resistance level (which would become support at 1503) as a stop loss area. Further buying opportunities would present themselves above the top descending channel trendline at (1). With a target at September 2016 lows, which comes in at 3392. Time Frame for this trade set-up is medium to long term.