$ACGL with a bearish outlook following its earnings #StocksThe PEAD projected a bearish outlook for NASDAQ:ACGL after a negative over reaction following its earnings release placing the stock in drift C.
ACGL/N trade ideas
Arch up to 120 till the end 2025?So what is Arch Capital - its not an investment bank or fund or something else - lets say insurance company.
Why its so attractive for me right now: Some financial highlights
Robust Profit Growth: In Q3 2024, Arch Capital reported a net income of $978 million ($2.56 per share), up from $713 million ($1.88 per share) in Q3 2023, marking a 37% increase.
Increased Premiums: The company saw a 20% rise in gross premiums written, reaching $5.44 billion in Q3 2024, indicating strong demand for its insurance products.
Enhanced Investment Income: Pre-tax net investment income grew by 48% to $399 million in Q3 2024, reflecting effective investment strategies amid favorable market conditions.
Improved Combined Ratio: Arch Capital achieved a combined ratio of 80.8% in Q1 2024, down from 82.2% in Q1 2023, demonstrating enhanced underwriting efficiency.
Book Value Growth: The company's book value per common share increased by 5.2% to $49.36 as of March 31, 2024, indicating solid financial health.
ANR recommends mstly buy and medium target is near 120
ACGL: Entry, Volume, Target, Stop (LONG & SHORT Ideas)LONG IDEA: (shown on chart)
Entry: greater than 114.65
Volume: greater than 1.125M
Target: 129.34 area (this is an area, no guarantees, you should be selling on the way up)
Stop: Depending on your risk tolerance; Based on an entry of 114.66, 109.77 gets you 3/1 Reward to Risk Ratio.
This LONG swing trade idea is not trade advice and is strictly based on my ideas and technical analysis. No due diligence or fundamental analysis was performed while evaluating this trade idea. Do not enter a trade based on my idea, do not follow anyone blindly, do your own analysis and due diligence. I am not a professional trader.
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SHORT IDEA: (not shown on chart)
Entry: lower than 108.77
Volume: greater than 1.308M
Target: 104.50 area
Stop: Depending on your risk tolerance; My stop would be no higher than 111.87 (the high on 9/11), but absolutely no higher than the previous high of 114.65.
This SHORT swing trade idea is not trade advice and is strictly based on my ideas and technical analysis. No due diligence or fundamental analysis was performed while evaluating this trade idea. Do not enter a trade based on my idea, do not follow anyone blindly, do your own analysis and due diligence. I am not a professional trader.
ACGL: Bulls Will ScrambleFundamentals:
Its accumulation/distribution days have been terrible. Its company sponsorship rating is mediocre. However, its forward guidance is better than expected. Earnings were not as phenomenal as last quarter, but next quarter's earnings will be better.
....and price is struggling off the not-so-phenomenal earnings.
Technicals:
3 week tight range
Fake Weekly Bear Crown pattern zoomed in on a daily chart looks like a bearish H&S pattern that will fail.
Bullish Cup-with-Handle pattern
A short squeeze on ACGL will occur...
Daily stage 3 signal
Week:
Fake Weekly Crown
Conclusion:
Bears hopped in on the pessimism that flowed into this company and now they are in for a short squeeze. And, now this stock is up from its bear market lows, reaching near all-time highs once again. Shorts will cover and bulls will scramble to buy this stock.
ARCH CAPITAL GROUP ViewHey investors, ARCH CAPITAL GROUP is in a fake bearish movement with a large volume of sales made and a failed buyer's attempt. By leaning on the TIMEFRAME M1 one can see a collapse with in the penultimate minute a large volume executed. She goes on her last lowest to make a turnaround it is very plausible that she breaks the Vwap in force. To reach his next high which is the panic before session Highlight example on the TIMEFRAME H4. And if the buyers are really back to reach the top that follows for after breakout the price and volume on the top of the top.
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ACGLArch Capital Group Ltd. is an American Bermuda-based public limited liability company which writes insurance, reinsurance and mortgage insurance on a worldwide basis, with a focus on specialty lines, the segment of the insurance industry where the more difficult and unusual risks are written.
Buy/long candidate (trending model).
Breaking through the last confirmed peak.As soon as the price breaks through the last confirmed peak, we are likely to see a trend change on the 1H. Then, the scenario I anticipate is setting a trap for the price if it decides to make a pullback to the area shown on the chart. That's when I enter a LONG position.
ACGLO -Long PositionNASDAQ:ACGLO Company - Long Position (Weekly Graph) 🚀 Entry: $22.83
Arch Capital Group Ltd. is an American company headquartered in Bermuda, operating with a public guarantee. It specializes in underwriting insurance, reinsurance, and mortgage insurance globally, with a focus on handling challenging and unconventional risks in the insurance industry. The company operates in various regions, including Bermuda, the United States, Canada, Europe, Australia, and in the case of mortgage insurance, Hong Kong.
Technical Analysis :
Starting January 2022, a price level of $23.70 has acted as a solid resistance, akin to a concrete wall that remains unbreached. However, since November 4, 2022, the stock has been showing increasing momentum.
At or above $23.23, I may consider increasing the position, and further at $23.35, with a decisive move beyond $23.70 as a breakout signal.
On the downside, if the price falls below $22, we will part ways amicably, adhering to our risk management strategy.
For the mid-term, our target prices are set at $27.00 and $28.50.
Please note, this is not a recommendation, but rather an analysis and observation of the stock.
Momentum Stock: Arch Capital GroupArch Capital Group Ltd is involved in insurance, reinsurance, and mortgage insurance products globally. It offers a wide range of coverage options, including casualty, property, marine, aviation, and travel insurance, among others operating primarily through brokers, selling both insurance and reinsurance products.
Financial Performance and Market Position
Arch Capital Group has demonstrated impressive financial performance over the past few years. The company has experienced steady growth, with its share price appreciating by 177.26% over the past five years, and 57.92% over the past year. The company's robust performance has resulted in an impressive all-time price performance of 3106.67%.
Currently, Arch Capital Group Ltd. has a market capitalization of approximately $27.868 billion and generated over $10.84 billion in revenue in the trailing twelve months (TTM). The company's EBITDA stands at $2.2 billion, signifying solid operational efficiency.
Valuation
The company's PE ratio of 14.44, which is lower than the average for the S&P 500, suggests that the stock could be undervalued compared to its earnings. This notion is further supported by the forward PE of 11.34, implying that earnings are expected to grow. However, the PEG ratio is 2.24, suggesting that the company may be overvalued when considering its growth rate.
Ownership Structure
The institutional ownership for Arch Capital Group Ltd is 91.16%, indicating that the stock is popular among sophisticated investors. The company's major shareholders include Vanguard Group Inc., BlackRock Inc., and State Street Corporation, which are known for their strategic and long-term investments. The considerable holding by these established institutions reflects their confidence in the company's financial health and future prospects.
Analyst Ratings
According to the given data, the stock is favorably rated by analysts, with a rating of 4.18 out of 5. Analysts have set a target price of $82.95, suggesting that they expect the stock price to appreciate from its current level of $73.04. With four strong buy ratings, five buy ratings, and two hold ratings, the consensus among analysts appears to be quite bullish.
Recent Insider Activity
Insider activity can offer some insight into the company's outlook. Recently, several executives have been selling their shares, including Louis T Petrillo, Maamoun Rajeh, Francois Morin, and Nicolas Papadopoulo. Although this selling activity could be a red flag, it's important to remember that insiders may sell their shares for many reasons that are not necessarily related to their outlook on the company.
Outlook
Arch Capital Group Ltd. appears to be a potentially promising investment. The company has a strong market presence, robust financial performance, and solid growth. Its favorable valuation metrics, particularly the PE ratio, suggest that the stock may be undervalued. The company's stock also enjoys strong institutional backing and has received positive ratings from analysts. While the recent insider selling warrants monitoring, it does not automatically indicate a negative outlook. As always, prospective investors should conduct their own due diligence and consider their risk tolerance before investing.
In terms of any kind of short term entry, the stock has had a pretty strong pullback and you would need to wait to see if it turns around. I would pay particular attention to any upwards movement on both the RSI and MACD for any kind of confirmation. For downside risk management, a trailing stop loss of around 10% would have kept you in most of this trade. If it broke below that it could have been a good sign to exit and look for a new entry when the trend resumed.
As always how you interpret and decide to act on any results is up to you. This is just data not financial or trading advice and past performance is in no way any guarantee of future performance. Think of it as a way to spot stocks you might be interested in and can add to your watch list and perform further research on and or discuss with your broker.
One to watch.
ACGL , LONGYesterday near close I bot ULTA but it had a bad signal on close , as a result I got out pretty much right away on open today , gave it a chance but as soon as the candle went red , I was out . At the time of entry I was looking at either ACGL or ULTA , since we were right at the prior days close on open I figured it was reasonable to enter this to replace ULTA.
Lets see how it goes . Expecting more volatility today with FED meetup rate decision so I decided a stop vs 50sma is suitable ... Still provides a nice Risk vs reward setup too .
ACGL is bullish and should post good gainsNASDAQ:ACGL broke the ascending triangle back in March. A bit late on this one but the stock still have good upside potential, use any pullbacks towards 37~38$ level to long the stock. Targets and anticipated price action is shown on the chart, stop loss at 35$.
Hit the like button please if you find this useful :)
This is only my own view and not a financial advice, do your own analysis before buying or selling
Happy Trading!
Fibonacci Golden Pocket Looking to Fill Your Own PocketsCongrats to myself on my second post. My first post on TSNPD took a bit longer to breakout than anticipated, but eventually it went my way.
Today's close was in between the fibonacci golden pocket. This occurred previously and as you can see on the chart, price increased dramatically. It might take a few more days for the action to play out, but I anticipate a similar move to come and the opportunity for some real gains.
Additionally, price has been consolidating recently near resistance levels which means that buyers are willing to buy even though the price is near resistance. Looks like buyers will eventually cause price to breakout from this resistance.
I have already taken a position in this and hopefully it goes my way.
Of course nothing is 100% guaranteed, this is just my analysis and again, this is only my second post.
