Acadia Healthcare Company | ACHC | Long at $21.98Acadia Healthcare's NASDAQ:ACHC stock has fallen nearly -76% in a year, primarily due to weak 2024 results, missed revenue and EPS expectations, and a soft 2025 revenue guidance. Ongoing federal investigations into billing practices and lawsuits have further eroded investor confidence. However, it is currently trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.42x and earnings are forecast to grow 7.07% per year. The profitable company is trading at a good value compared to other healthcare companies. Debt-to-equity is relatively low (0.64x), but legal risks (DOJ probe, lawsuits) strain margins.
The stock has entered my "major crash" simple moving average territory and there is a lot of downward / selling pressure. But, more often than not, this area (which... I caution... still extends down near $16) can often signal a temporary or longer-term bottom. Personally, this is a buy area ($16-$21) even if it turns into a short-term bounce in 2025. But I believe the overall market moves in the S&P 500, etc. will guide this stock more than anything at this point (unless more bad news about the company emerges).
One thing to note is that there are open price gaps on the daily chart near $17, $10, and $8. These gaps, which often (but not always) get closed in the lifetime of a stock, are a potential signal for further declines - at least at some point. There could be a drop near $16, then a $10-$20 bullish price increase after that, followed by more declines (trapping investors). Time will tell, but NASDAQ:ACHC is currently attractively valued. From a technical analysis standpoint, it is in a personal "buy zone", even if purely for a swing trade.
Targets:
$27.00
$33.00
$39.00
ACHC trade ideas
ACHC – 30-Min Long Trade Setup!ACHC – 30-Min Long Trade Setup 📈🚀
🔹 Asset: ACHC – Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. (NASDAQ)
🔹 Timeframe: 30-Min Chart
🔹 Setup Type: Bullish Breakout (Trendline Break + Momentum Shift)
📊 Trade Plan (Long Position)
✅ Entry Zone: Above $29.55 (Breakout Confirmation)
✅ Stop-Loss (SL): Below $28.68 (Key Support Level)
🎯 Take Profit Targets (TPs)
📌 TP1: $30.95 (Previous Resistance Zone)
📌 TP2: $32.48 (Breakout Level & Strong Resistance)
📌 TP3: $35.00 (Major Resistance & Psychological Level)
📊 Risk-Reward Ratio Calculation
📉 Risk (SL Distance):
$29.55 - $28.68 = $0.87 risk per trade
📈 Reward to TP1:
$30.95 - $29.55 = $1.40 (1:1.6 R/R)
📈 Reward to TP2:
$32.48 - $29.55 = $2.93 (1:3.3 R/R)
📈 Reward to TP3:
$35.00 - $29.55 = $5.45 (1:6.3 R/R)
✅ Favorable Risk-Reward Ratio, strong breakout potential toward TP3
🔍 Technical Analysis & Strategy
📌 Trendline Breakout: Price has broken above a descending trendline, signaling bullish momentum.
📌 Key Resistance Flip: $30.95 is a critical breakout level; reclaiming it strengthens the setup.
📌 Squeeze Momentum Shift: Histogram turning blue, indicating increasing bullish pressure.
📌 Volume Confirmation Needed: Look for high buying volume above $29.55 to confirm strength.
📉 Trade Execution & Risk Management
📊 Volume Confirmation: Ensure strong buying pressure before entering above $29.55.
📈 Trailing Stop Strategy: Move SL to break-even ($29.55) after hitting TP1 ($30.95).
💰 Partial Profit Booking Strategy
✔ Take 50% profits at TP1 ($30.95) and let the rest run toward TP2 & TP3.
✔ Adjust Stop-Loss to Break-even ($29.55) after TP1 is reached.
⚠️ Risks & Considerations
❌ Fake Breakout Risk: If the price falls back below $29.55, exit early.
❌ Confirmation Required: Wait for a 30-min candle close above $29.55 before entering.
🚀 Final Thoughts
✔ Bullish Setup – Strong upside potential.
✔ Trendline Break + Squeeze Shift – High confluence setup.
✔ Favorable Risk-Reward Ratio – 1:6.3 toward TP3.
💡 Stick to the plan, manage risk, and trade smart! 🚀📈
🔗 #ACHC #Stocks #Breakout #TradingView #ProfittoPath 💰📊
$NASDAQ:ACHC - analysis of annual cot levelsNASDAQ:ACHC
Please remember that this idea does not constitute investment advice.
After a personal analysis of the institutional value of the COT, buy and sell program levels are outlined. Since the asset is at its minimum, the idea is to wait for the price to head inside the buy program, wait for a swing to form in the direction of the target level (the first sell program) and open the trade at the break of this. The position is medium-term (from 1-2 weeks to 1-2 months); without financial leverage and the maximum profit area is that outlined by the sell program. Personally I do not use stop loss as the trade does not involve the use of financial leverage, however if a level for the stop loss were to be identified, this would be below the buy program.
For any clearly ask me.
ACHC buying opportunityNASDAQ:ACHC buying opportunity, imo
Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. (ACHC) is a provider of behavioral healthcare services, operating inpatient psychiatric facilities, residential treatment centers, outpatient clinics, and therapeutic school-based programs.
Key Information:
Sector: Healthcare (Behavioral Health)
Market Cap: ~$7 billion
Business Focus: Acadia Healthcare specializes in the treatment of mental health and substance use disorders. The company operates facilities across the U.S. and the U.K., offering services such as acute inpatient psychiatric care, residential treatment for adolescents, and addiction recovery programs.
Recent Developments:
Acadia Healthcare has benefited from the growing demand for mental health and addiction treatment services, particularly in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, which highlighted the importance of behavioral health services. The company continues to expand its network of facilities and partnerships to meet this demand.
Acadia is seen as a key player in the growing behavioral health market, and the stock could offer growth potential as awareness and need for mental health services increase globally.
ACADIA HEALTHCARE Chart DailyHey traders, ACADIA HEALTHCARE is in a bearish dynamic fake with a water-carrying candle shape and low return of traded sell volume. In the TIMEFRAME M1 we see a dash with a low volume of purchase made it goes in the direction of the VWAP. This corresponds to the base of the bollinger as well as its highest and end on the top of the balance zone to test it. The price is highly prone to breakout with the return of momentum in both the area to get to the top one and to land on the next high.
For the moment it is in a phase of correction keeping in your bag no signal for an aggressive rise.
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$achc Very important week ahead for Acadia HealthcareThis week is all about looking into the future for NASDAQ:ACHC investors as on thursday, the company will host a conference call to update investors on the companies strategy and future.
In the most recent earnings it was not a blowout but just about in line with expectations. The company referred to continued growth and expansion so investors will be keen to know where,when and how much?
It could be a volatile week for the stock. A positive break above the 200ma could result in a substantial rally given the fact there is such a high short interest in the stock.
Short Interest 17%
Analysts average Estimate $36.94
Analysts Recommendation Overweight
Company Profile
Acadia Healthcare Co., Inc. engages in the provision of behavioral healthcare services. It operates through the following segments: United States (U.S.) Facilities and the United Kingdom (U.K.) Facilities. The U.S. Facilities segment classified in the following categories: acute inpatient psychiatric facilities; specialty treatment facilities; residential treatment centers; and outpatient community-based services. The U.K. Facilities segment provides inpatient services through facilities, including mental health hospitals, clinics, care homes, schools, colleges, and children's homes.
$ACHC Spinning Top on Weekly - Bearish Options Activity$ACHC Forming possible spinning top on weekly chart right at the December gap-fill resistance around $29. After big earnings miss last quarter and removal of CEO in December, not much positive fundamental news to attract buyers leading up to another earnings release in late February. Targeting next support level at $20 by March.
Also of note, some unusual bearish options activity today for a name that doesn't see a ton of options activity - with 2k $30.00 strike (ITM) March puts traded today vs OI of about 200 for total premium of about $600k.
Note: Informational analysis, not investment advice.
A stock for your buy list?Technically Speaking
Acadia Healthcare Co is sitting at a support level that was last tested in 2014, roughly 40. Will it hold this level? Who knows.
What to do?
Looking at the chart it would seem the R/R favors being long at these levels. A stop somewhere under 36 makes sense. Just have a place that you will EXIT.
The number one job of a trader is to protect capital. None of us know which trades will work, we just have to take the trades that seem to be in our favor, hold onto the winners, and cut the losers.
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