AFRM trade ideas
AFRM FlaggingAFRM flagging on the daily, coming off a double bottom. If markets can continue buy the dip regime. This can catch some momentum.
AFRM longAFRM flagging on daily after putting in a major reversal off double bottom and breaking market structure with higher high, increasing volume shows buyers are present in this name. If markets continue buy the dip regime we've been in for a while this could swept up in the momentum
$AFRM Was Its Drop An Overreaction?Most fintech companies have been suffering as of late due to the rise in interest rates over the last year, coupled with the failure of multiple banks during recent months. Affirm Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: AFRM) is a fintech company that recently unveiled its Q1 earnings report where the company beat both revenue and EPS estimates. Despite this, AFRM dropped by as much as 8% which can be an overreaction by the market. The rise in interest rates has affected fintech companies in different ways, but with a potential interest rate hike pause, the fintech space could have some breathing room moving forward.
AFRM Fundamentals
AFRM beat its earnings estimates as it reported a revenue of $380.9 million beating its estimate of $369.5 million by 3.08% and an EPS of -0.69 beating its -0.851 estimate by 18.9%. However, the AFRM stock price dropped 7% following its earnings call despite the company beating its estimates.
Concerns regarding rising interest rates and bank failures and their effects on what the company will have to pay to service its debts could have affected the stock, with its funding debt increasing from $672.5 million to $1.5 billion. During its earnings call, AFRM stated that higher credit spreads could affect its revenue less transaction costs which is a metric that measures the economic value of the transaction it processes. Nevertheless, if the Fed does stop raising interest rates and potentially cut them in the future, AFRM could be set to overcome this risk moving forward.
Yet, AFRM could witness some form of recovery, despite its recent headwinds due to the growth of its key metrics. AFRM’s gross merchandise volume increased from $3.9 billion to $4.6 billion while its revenues grew from $354.7 million to $380.9 million. Moreover, AFRM’s active consumers increased from 12.7 million to 16 million and its active merchants increased from 207 thousand to 246 thousand. Based on this, AFRM stock could rise in the future if it works out its funding debt problem.
AFRM Financials
In its Q3 2023 report, AFRM reported $7.5 billion in assets including $972.4 million in cash and equivalents and $3.7 billion in loans held for investment. AFRM witnessed an increase in its assets from $6.9 billion including an increase in loans held for investment from $2.5 billion, however, its cash and equivalents decreased from $1.2 billion in Q4 2022. UPST’s liabilities grew for the 9 months ended March 31, from $4.3 billion to $4.9 billion as its funding debt increased from $672.5 million to $1.5 billion.
For the three months that ended March 31, AFRM’s revenues grew YoY from $354.7 million to $380.9 million while its operating loss widened from $226.5 million to $310 million. Finally, AFRM’s net loss also widened from $54.6 million to $205.6 million.
Technical Analysis
AFRM stock trend is neutral as it is currently trading in a sideways channel between the support at $9.16 and the resistance at $12.31.
Looking at the indicators, AFRM is currently trading above the 21 MA, 50 MA, and 200 MA which is a bullish sign, THE RSI is neutral at 59, and the MACD is bearish
Fundamentally, AFRM stock’s most recent catalyst was its Q3 earnings. Still, it does not have any upcoming catalysts aside from the Feds possibly no longer increasing interest rates while potentially cutting them in the future.
AFRM’s stock doesn’t have a clear indication of how it’s going to shift, however, any possible changes in the current economic environment such as a decline in interest rates might shift the stock moving forward.
AFRM Forecast
AFRM’s stock price drop might have occurred due to concerns regarding rising interest rates and bank failures and their effects on what the company will have to pay to service its debts. Nevertheless, the company has been displaying significant growth rates despite its risks as presented during its latest earnings call. For this reason, AFRM stock might recover moving forward.
Double bottom w/ bullish divergence long ideaDouble bottom w/ bullish divergence on both macd and rsi off support. Easy R:R and easy to read chart. Good luck!
Possible break outThe price is squeezing into the symmetrical triangle. The $10 level proved to be a strong support so I think is going to break out to the upside. I just opened a long position, it may open with a gap up next Monday.
Will Affirm (AFRM) stock fall after Apple Pay Later ???AFRM Affirm Holdings, Inc.
Will Affirm (AFRM) stock fall after Apple Pay Later Launch or rise? Take a look at the chart!
Tactical Idea Long above 11
Risk/reward ratio 3.65
Target 14.3
Stop 10.35
This announcement is for information purposes only and does not constitute an individual investment recommendation or an offer to purchase such securities.
LASVEGAS 13 is a market signals, ideas, trade forecasts since 2010
PLUG My We can see price has been trading within the 10.75 and the 9.25 zones since the middle of March. Today we saw a strong push upwards that may continue and end up breaking to the outside towards the 12.25 zone. We'll keep an eye on this stock and react accordingly.
AFRM Shorting opportunities to the previous lows available in swing. but it is at 50 DMA so expecting some level of support as seen in last 2 days . but overall looks weaker
AFRM Short 2/28 - 3/10Short on AFRM on 2/28.
Sold Call Credit Spread $13.5/$14 with expiration 3/10.
Target 1: 13.31
Target 2: 12.88
Considering closing and/or rolling if price rises above $14 OR is loss 50% or greater.
Close for profit at 70-85% profit.
AffirmI put buy orders today for 12.86. I got filled. I looked at it as a backtest of previous downtrendinf reistance. We bounces off it bud now losing a current uptrend. Biggest reistance is 13.88 so we could be headed there. If we can breakout and hold as support this could be a sick trade and most profits for me will be taken around 15$. If we can flip that to new support we would be looking higher but a 2$ move from here for me will be. Big win. Size accordingly. Stoploss for me is 11.80
$AFRM Trade Idea 2/6/23$AFRM
AFRM has had some nice movement after finally breaking back above 17 area. Earnings coming up this week on Wednesday. If we see a positive reaction to earnings AFRM can run to the 23,24 level. If there is a negative reaction we can see a 5+ point drop to the downside towards 13 again.
Trade Idea:
AFRM 2/10/23 20 calls (ER Lotto)
Entry: Hold above 18 or Back test of 17
Target: 22.50
Roll: 25 calls above 22.50
Watchlist 2023-02-03 #GOOGL #AFRM #JWN #LAZR #AMD SPY came very close to reaching 420 resistance yesterday. But failed at 418. If the bullish momo continues we need to hold 413.46, some early fake outs below might be enough to flush some longs. However, if we get below and stay below, the bias is short until we form type of inverse H&S on the 5, 10, or 15 min. Payroll expected number 187K, actual ~500K, negative catalyst for the market as the jobs market continues to show resilience.
Packaged software showing the most weakness in the pre market with room until next support.
Short watches, AFRM,LAZR, ASAN, U
GOOGL - Missed earning, said revenue from its advertising business, which includes Search and YouTube, fell 3.6%. Now below PD low, 200 MA, and the key pivot at 104.90. Minor pivot support at 102.24. Will likely get an early flush so RR wont be super favorable off the open. May need things to settle and wait for a VWAP retest and fail.
JWN - interesting short idea if we see failed follow through momo
Long watches: AMD - potential for pull back at 81.60 if we see short momo settling
$AFRM: Bullish trend?With the amount of signals I am seeing (about 20 long ideas here), many being growth names, it is clear the market is pricing in a more dovish Fed, inflation cooling down and a soft-ish landing...I wonder if this will become a trap as all these setups fail simultaneously after FOMC? For now, it is what it is and charts call for long exposure. $AFRM has a nice reward to risk and odds here, and $QQQ weekly is now bullish, and broke into a new monthly high after triggering a trend signal so maybe we did see a bottom after all...Earnings data has been quite positive, according to $V, $MA, $AXP, so there could be some potential on the long side as a mid or long term idea. I'm personally trading tactically overall, until it is clearer we're out of the woods, closing things at targets, using tight stops, playing longs and shorts, etc.
Best of luck!
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
AFRM consolidating for dropAFRM has been stuck in a range at the bottom of its recent drop, consolidating.
I predict a break below the bottom of the channel (possibly after another retest of the channel top), retesting the recent low of 10.70 during an impulsive selloff Thursday.
Poor fundamentals (negative earnings, rising cost of financing, dropping consumer spending) provide a tailwind for this trade.
scalp to 20+I'm a buyer below this green line.
Since this turd plummeted through the 200 DMA it hasn't managed to touch it again... I think that will change w the next rally. (I believe the S&P will retrace to ~3700 then to 4150+ to conclude this B wave
Right now a buy in the single digits and psychological support around $10 makes sense to me and/or a buy when SPX retests its 200WMA around 3650.
Just a scalp not a HODL here.
Sold off with a bunch of double bottoms forming Signaling upside with double bottoms on minute charts to day chart and hours charts. Looks very bullish for a short term outlook at least it should regain some of the big losses it just took. I'm going to get a weekly call.
AFFIRM HOLDINGS, INC - BEARISH SCENARIOThe Affirm`s downtrend seems unbreakable. The price has already reached an all-time low, and the next logical support is the psychological level of $ 10.
Worries over the macro's impact on the financial model, especially the deteriorating consumer credit profile combined with lowered fiscal 2023 outlook on gross merchandise volume to a range of $20.5 billion to $21.5 billion are just some of the reasons for the sell-off.
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AFRM Affirm Holdings Options Ahead of EarningsLooking at the AFRM Affirm Holdings options chain ahead of earnings, i would buy the $14.5 strike price Puts with
2022-11-11 expiration date for about
$1.16 premium.
If the options turn out to be profitable Before the earnings release, i would sell at least 50%.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
$AFRMDifficult to short here after a clear 5 down from highs a 3 up from May lows and a three down into secondary lows ..so safest is to short the next 5 up
Affirm AFRM current BULLISH thesis level by levelLets NOT get out of control with the expectations and when and where this should go. Lets instead play this level by level by level as we watch the movements and levels of the SPX and Nasdaq. This WILL give us our overall limits and projections we can work with UNTIL we get our OWN narrative to run on our own.
Pay attention to the levels for Support (S) and Resistance (R) as well as you can see the GAPS that need to be filled marked by the Yellow STARS for you to make it EASY ...
