ASML probably hasn't bottomed yetThe ASML bounce looks tempting but i'm exprecting another thrust down. I've been buying around the mid-600s and long term this is still a good price to be avg in, but just keep in mind it may not have found bottom. All the other recent bottoms have tested the lower bollinger bands, i think this will play out similar.
ASML/N trade ideas
ASML Holding NV Falls Short on Q1 Orders Amid Tariff UncertaintyASML Holding NV reported weaker-than-expected first-quarter orders, citing growing global uncertainty due to fresh tariff announcements. The Dutch semiconductor equipment firm recorded €3.94 billion ($4.47 billion) in net bookings for Q1, well below the €4.82 billion anticipated by analysts, according to Bloomberg data.
The company supplies advanced chipmaking machinery to leading names like Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. and Intel Corp. ASML’s CEO Christophe Fouquet acknowledged that the semiconductor industry is facing renewed pressure. He stated that tariffs are “creating a new uncertainty,” not only for global economic stability but also for future market demand.
Despite missing order expectations, ASML emphasized that bookings often fluctuate and may not fully reflect ongoing business momentum. Nevertheless, concerns persist over how geopolitical tensions and potential tariff measures—particularly from the U.S. government—might impact the broader semiconductor supply chain.
Technical Analysis
As of 2:53:28 PM EDT, stock is trading at $630.08, down $52.79 (-7.75%), following the earnings announcement. Technically, this is seen in a sharp selling pressure after the earnings miss. Current price action is now trading towards a key support zone around $578, which marks the recent low.
If the price faces rejection there, a potential retest of the $770 resistance remains likely.
Alternatively, a successful breakout above the resistance may drive a move toward $600 levels.
ASML - Nailed our short trade! How, Why, and What now?If you watched my video on why I was shorting ASML last week, you'd be quite pleased with the subsequent dump. This wasn't luck - this was understanding the algorithms, the basics of market dynamics and supply and demand, and doing what we do best - sniping a good entry to allow the HTF algorithms to be in control.
Let's keep this momentum up as the market and individual equities continue to offer us excellent trade opportunities!
If you haven't watched my SPY video that I just posted, please check it out as it's extremely important to keep an eye on the broader markets as a gauge as to when these liquidity builds might be happening and to understand if the market's movements are just that, liquidity building, or continuation.
Happy Trading :)
ASML - An exciting short trade I've been preparing forI've been analyzing price action on ASML for a few months and am very excited to finally be entering a position here once all the confluences line up. Lots of chop recently and price is still deciding where it wants to land. Luckily, utilizing algorithms and known S&D, we can get a good picture of which way and where that will be.
Happy Trading :)
ASML is on life support Warning: This baby is super volatile and not for beginners. If you’re trading with a small account, start with 1 share and put your stop in as soon as you enter. No exceptions.
We’ve got 3 lower highs, and there are institutional sellers parked near the 200-day EMA, slowly walking this thing down.
If they press, I’m watching to see if ASML can test the $650 area.
If it breaks, we might be looking at another 50–60 points lower.
📌 Tight stop: $750
📌 Wider stop: $770
This one isn’t for the faint of heart—respect the volatility and use stops!
ASML: Possible Upside MomentumNASDAQ:ASML appears to be setting up for a potential upside move. After a period of consolidation, the stock has shown resilience at key support levels and is now primed for a bullish breakout.
Resistance: $786 – This is the primary target for the next leg higher.
Momentum: Indicators suggest increasing buying pressure.
ASML Double Top Breakdown – Bearish SetupASML has formed a double top pattern, signaling potential downside. The neckline has been broken, confirming the bearish setup. If price holds below this level, further downside is expected.
Key Levels:
🟠 Entry: Below confirmation level
🔴 Stop Loss: 780.43
🟢 Target: 549.66
Bearish momentum is strong, and a move toward the target could play out if the breakdown continues. Manage risk accordingly.
Trading idea - Entry point > 746/61.80%Trading Idea
1) Find a FIBO slingshot
2) Check FIBO 61.80% level
3) Entry Point > 746/61.80%
Chart time frame: C
A) 15 min(1W-3M)
B) 1 hr(3M-6M)
C) 4 hr(6M-1year)
D) 1 day(1-3years)
Stock progress: A
A) Keep rising over 61.80% resistance
B) 61.80% resistance
C) 61.80% support
D) Hit the bottom
E) Hit the top
Stocks rise as they rise from support and fall from resistance. Our goal is to find a low support point and enter. It can be referred to as buying at the pullback point. The pullback point can be found with a Fibonacci extension of 61.80%. This is a step to find entry level. 1) Find a triangle (Fibonacci Speed Fan Line) that connects the high (resistance) and low (support) points of the stock in progress, where it is continuously expressed as a Slingshot, 2) and create a Fibonacci extension level for the first rising wave from the start point of slingshot pattern.
When the current price goes over 61.80% level , that can be a good entry point, especially if the SMA 100 and 200 curves are gathered together at 61.80%, it is a very good entry point.
As a great help, tradingview provides these Fibonacci speed fan lines and extension levels with ease. So if you use the Fibonacci fan line, the extension level, and the SMA 100/200 curve well, you can find an entry point for the stock market. At least you have to enter at this low point to avoid trading failure, and if you are skilled at entering this low point, with fibonacci6180 technique, your reading skill to chart will be greatly improved.
If you want to do day trading, please set the time frame to 5 minutes or 15 minutes, and you will see many of the low point of rising stocks.
If want to prefer long term range trading, you can set the time frame to 1 hr or 1 day.
ASML Holding Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought ASML before the previous rally:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of ASML Holding prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 655usd strike price Puts with
an expiration date of 2025-2-14,
for a premium of approximately $18.40.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
ASML HOLDING N.V - BUY APPROVEDASML Buy Recommendation is Certified.
1. The major trendline since 2009 has been tested and remains solid.
2. The Fibonacci retracement is currently at the 0.618 level, the ultimate prime level.
3. The Fibonacci extension consistently proves accurate.
4. The presidential election year is historically the best time to invest, plus the stock is currently discounted.
5. ASML holds a global monopoly in EUV (Extreme Ultraviolet) lithography technology.
6. Earnings have consistently been excellent, with the company being highly profitable.
7. Some market pressures are driven by American interests, aiming to undermine ASML in order to prevent the sale of machines to China.
TARGET: 1450 EUR
ASML - Downtrend & Push backTREND
According to the current wave structure, it is in the downtrend.
Characteristically, it is used to create pull and push backs after support/resistance breakout.
So we can expect similar behavior now.
It has not formed a channel yet, but a probable channel can be estimated as on the chart.
Moving Averages
The current price is under 100-day (Turquoise) (so supports downtrend)
50-day (Orange) will most likely cross 100-day (Turquoise) from up to down (powerful indicator supporting downtrend) in two weeks, unless prices exceeds 50-day.
200-day (Blue) has just worked as a support, but the next momentum is expected to be more powerful resulting a potential breakout of 200-day support.
SUMMARY
Based on this analysis, a price action following the blue arrow is highly probable.
ASML Long term investment ideaLooking at history and the philosophy that we are witnessing the technological gold rush with the advancement of AI and next generation NVIDIA chips. The idea that during a gold rush, the ones who got the wealthiest were those that sold pickaxes. Looking into this supply chain, the bottleneck is clear, this is an industry that takes time to build and scale. Arizona fab to years and billions of taxpayer dollars to get done, and it still took years.
With ASML being the only company supplies the lithography machines that take months to build and ship, they are school bus size light canon printers that need specialized teams to run and operate. Doesn't seem that any competitor in on the horizon, but with quantum technology also developing exponentially, their dominance in the chip market could strengthen past that of TSMC in my opinion. Their codependency on one another is being overlooked in markets, in my opinion.