Carnival plc (CUK): Setting Sail for Gains in the Next 5 WeeksKey Stats:
Market Cap: $31.98B
P/E Ratio: 20.43
Dividend Yield: Currently not paying dividends
Next Earnings Date: December 19, 2024
52-Week Range: $12.50 - $23.08
Technical Reasons CUK Could Cruise Higher:
Ascending Channel: CUK is riding a well-defined upward channel, with higher highs and higher lows. It's like the stock's on a never-ending cruise to Profit Island.
Support at 50-Day Moving Average: The 50-day MA is acting as a solid support level, catching any dips like a trusty lifeboat.
MACD Bullish Crossover: The MACD line has crossed above the signal line, indicating that the bulls are steering this ship.
Fundamental Reasons CUK Might Keep Climbing:
Record-Setting Q3 Performance: Carnival reported net income of $1.7 billion in Q3 2024, a $662 million increase compared to 2023.
Raised Full-Year Guidance: The company upped its full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance to over $6 billion, marking the third increase this year.
Strong Booking Trends: Advanced bookings for 2025 are at record levels, indicating that people are eager to get back on the high seas.
Potential Paths to Profit:
Low Risk (Shares): Buy CUK shares and hold.
Options Play: Consider buying call options with a strike price near the current level, expiring in January 2025.
Swing Trade: Enter on a pullback to the 50-day MA and aim to sell near the upper channel resistance.
Disclaimer: We are not a brokerage or investment firm. We do not offer financial advice or investment advice and/or signals. This is not certified financial education. We offer access to the daily thought process of an individual and his experiences. We do not offer refunds. All sales are final.
CCL/N trade ideas
CUK Carnival Corporation Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of CUK Carnival Corporation prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 10usd strike price in the money Calls with
an expiration date of 2023-10-20,
for a premium of approximately $2.60.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
The Public vs InstitutionsCarnival Cruise was one of the stocks that underperformed after the 2020 Covid Crisis. From previous Lows, there was a huge gain--for smart money or Institutional investors. However, once media coverage of the "performing" industry hit the market, The big Boys Knew that it was time to sell off their shares to the Public. This Creates Bag Holders of the Stock at high prices, meaning that next time, should there be good news on the stock, that it will run at previous highs again. Assuming that there was no Pump and Dump--short lived stock with Fundamentals
Carnival Cruises CUK & CCL Carnaval Cruises (CUK & CCL) has come back down to initial covid shock levels. Although this time the stock isn’t at this price because the company cannot operate. Rather the US market is experiencing systemic risk and as a result, irrational selling is just pulling down the price of overvalued company’s but undervalued company’s as well.
Carnivals Cruises Earnings
Last quarter earnings - 1.6
Next fiscal year estimate 1.4
As Carnival Cruises gets back into the black and starts to report profits to the market, the fair value of the company will increase. This means the future value of the company is not reflected in todays price.
Buy & Hold
Buy The Travel Sector CUKThe Omnicron variant has provided an investment opportunity in the travel sector.
Prior to the emergence of Omnicron, Travel destinations were beginning to plan pathways for reopening.
This gave confidence to the market that the future values of travel related stocks would be higher and as a result travel stocks recovered from pandemic market shock lows.
Since the start of the Omnicron market scare travel stocks have decreased in value significantly.
Currently, countries such as Vietnam, the Philippines and Thailand are beginning the pathways back to pre covid travel levels by slowly easing entry restrictions.
Preliminary data shows Omnicron may be less severe and it will become the dominant variant. This gives us confidence that covid is mutating in a positive direction and the world will eventually open up as a result of the new variants low mortality rate.
We believe the travel sector will recover at some point leading us to conclude that current market valuations are selling at a discount.
Our plan is to front run the end of harsh pandemic travel restrictions and take a position in the travel sector.
The time horizon for this trade is between 8 weeks and 6 months.
We are expecting to close our position at a 10 to 30 percent gain.
Play Number One
Carnival Cruises, stock code CUK currently valued at 18 USD.
At the high of pandemic recovery Optimism, CUK was valued at 27 dollars. That is a 55 % increase in your investment back to the last recovery top.
Note: ignore carnival stock CCL because it is selling at a premium which could narrow if the U S economy weakens further.
Play Number Two
Flight Centre FLT. You can get exposure to this company on the Australian Stock Exchange. Flight Centre recovered to a price of 25 Australian Dollars and now sits at 16 dollars. When optimism returns and creates momentum, FLT may experience a 55% gain back to the highest pandemic recovery point.
We will post updates in the comment section as new information comes to light.
CUK, the hull is shotA symmetrical triangle formation. Market just opened very strong below the bullish trend line.
Position opened today (with the break of the bullish trend line). Stop loss is at a previous support level inside of the triangle.
Use risk management as always.
Thank you for reading.