CMG trade ideas
Roll CMG Back to Jan. Overlay AMZN. Equal Gains OK with You?Upfront disclosure - I've gotten wrapped up in CMG's ridiculous moves amidst non-stop promotion. Hate it!
In any event caught sweet 35 point CMG correction last time we did this week plus ago. CMG reversed off high today, and aggressive shorts should look for pullback. Ultra aggressive plays can use June 5 and June 12 puts. Last time I did this it pulled back withing 2 to 3 days so act fast. Premiums are fat but so is the last 60 plus point up-move.
Sounds really strange but it almost looks like it follows AMZN's short term bounces. go figure. BEWARE - stock buybacks shore up CMG very quickly IMHO. If I'm wrong by only 10pts against me i'm out.
$CMG - lets Taco bout it$CMG
Looking for the gap to fill. Will watch for a bounce @ 941.07
Entry: $941.07
Stop loss $895.45
Limit sell: $1016
Setup is invalidated if it does not bounce. ( watch the 15 min candles for better confirmation)
Gave a 5% stop loss a little below below where i feel support is sitting to avoid being stopped out.
Notes;
Qudoba and Dos Toros are better. ;)
1. CMG is one bad piece of lettuce away from getting rocked....
2. Isnt there a meat shortage? Higher prices, lower margins?
3. The run up seems suspect.
Rewind CMG to Jan 2nd. Overlay Amazon. Then ask: Really? 142%?Fully admit an emotional dislike for Chipotle insofar as my belief that they are continually promoting promoting promoting and as of today the stock feels way ahead of itself here. It has reversed slightly off an intraday high.
The overlay of Amazon merely points out just how far CMG stock has moved and whether you like their food or not - it is difficult for me to rationalize that Chipotle deserves to have comas far as amazon in terms of YTD performance: In 2020, I have both AMZN and CMG up 142% as of today.
I am obviously considering shorting and am sharing the idea, but I have often wondered if these guys can buy back Billions of dollars of stock, almost at will. Upside performance w almost no corrections baffles me. Anyone?
CMG Going, Going, GuacRSI sitting at 77 right now. Possible RSI support around 61.60's but it's iffy. Not a lot of structure to the RSI right now.
Bottom trendline formed. Possible ascending wedge up top with a fake out. Could pop a lil more before this starts to slide.
MACD way above normal. Normal was around 15 at highs. Currently 59. Previous all time high was in the 30's. Last few times MACD has been even close to this high we've seen at least and $80-$100 pull back. In 2015-2016 (before E coli in Feb 2016) it saw a $300 pull back between beginning of August and Jan.
Also, it appears that CMG really likes to pop back up after pull backs 1-2 times before any major dumps. You'll notice this patter for most dumps of $60+ (Corona dump excluded).
Look back to around 2012's:
$CMG $999 Channel Target on Chipotle
Extremely bullish V shaped recovery considering that output is restricted , arguably a unjust level for the stock to have risen to, but it is much loved among investors
Extremely high P/e level and is overlooked in favor of growth.
$1000 looks like a certainty in the not to distant future.
Awaiting break above old high of $940
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