COIN, BTC: An Interesting Fractal I Found; Macro Analysis
The Coinbase ( NASDAQ:COIN ) 4-hour chart is a perfect fractal of the Bitcoin weekly chart. Good ole' Wyckoff distribution. It even has the little Bart Simpson correction pattern from August 2020 that occurred shortly after the last halving and a few months before the first big leg up.
Considering current price action, Bitcoin and Coinbase, for that matter, will potentially be kicking off their fifth and final HTF waves up following what are likely to be multi-month consolidations. The next few months could resemble a less severe version of the "mini bear market" the crypto market experienced in the summer of 2021.
In BTC, I'm looking for stretch downside targets of around 56k and around 51k if 56k breaks. If it gets all the way down there, it would be a gift. On shorter time frames, assuming the 69k/70k resistance is not breached, there is likely more downside to come for both assets. Corrections to the upside should be approached with caution.
On COIN, an S/R flip under the fib fan's 50% level is all but confirmed on the 4-hour chart. If historical price action is any indication, this fractal suggests that testing the 0.618 is definitely in the cards. I'm eyeing $220 as a potential target. It's supported by a strong demand zone and the weekly VWAP.
Sentiment should remain relatively bullish on higher time frames so long as 50k isn't breached.
