Carvana Market Price PredictionPlease let me know if you think it will dip or soar by Monday! I think the public will sell some of their shares, making Carvana's stock price go down slightly around the $225-$228 price zone.
CVNA trade ideas
SHORT CVNAThis is a straightforward play on a fundamentally weak company with bad press, a broken business model, an unsustainable P/E ratio, and technical patterns lining up for a significant move. The Head & Shoulders (H&S) pattern is the main focus, and this trade hinges on the neckline holding. If it breaks above the neckline, the trade is invalidated.
Trade Plan Details
1. DCA INTO PUTS:
Entry Zone: Short at the $230–$240 range.
March Contracts: Target $180 or $150 puts, depending on risk appetite.
Use DCA to average into puts, increasing position size as CVNA nears $240 (neckline resistance).
2. POSITION SIZING:
Start with 1 contract at $230, double at $235, and max out at $240.
This ensures a manageable risk-reward setup while preparing for the H&S invalidation above $240.
3. TARGETS:
Short-term Target (50% Fib): $177 (Fib retracement).
Long-term Target: $133 (next major support).
Potential for 1:8 risk-reward ratio, making this a high-reward opportunity.
4. STOP LOSS:
Stop out if CVNA breaks above $240 (neckline) and closes above it on the daily chart.
Key Supporting Arguments
Fundamentals:
Who wants to buy a car online without a test drive?
Sky-high P/E ratio indicates overvaluation, unsustainable in a rising rate environment.
Technicals:
The H&S neckline around $230 is the critical resistance level.
Break of the neckline confirms the bearish continuation.
Fib Retracements:
50% Fib ($177) is a realistic target.
61.8% Fib ($133) offers additional downside if momentum continues.
1/24/25 - $cvna - Zero.1/24/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:CVNA
Zero.
- stay away
- until this gets properly investigated you're best off sitting on the sidelines and never going near this
- i've been thru the hinenburn report and have found my own evidence with a simple process i use that's not even included in the lengthy and well-researched report.
- will 4Q results look good? lmfao - it's make believe guys - so until the borrowers are tired of taking losses and/or concerned about being investigated and would rather cash out... it could continue for as long as the eye can see.
- but.
- it's worth zero
hindenburgresearch.com
V
Carvana's Fundamentals And Chart Screeming For A ShortFrom a very well known Short-Seller in the markets I read a concerning letter this morning:
"Carvana Trades At An 845% Higher Sales Multiple Than Online Car Peers Like CarMax and AutoNation, And A 754% Premium On A Forward Earnings Basis."
...ummmhh... §8-()
The Chart does look very scary too.
This exponential move can't sustain very long. As we see, the first bounce already alerts me to prepare for a big short.
If this plays out as projected, we see a heavy dump in the coming weeks and months.
Major Price Movement Incoming for CVNA!Signalist has detected a precise pattern in NYSE:CVNA FUBO trading activity, signaling that a substantial price movement is imminent. This isn’t a random fluctuation—it’s a carefully analyzed precursor to a significant market event.
📅 What to Expect:
⌛ Timeline: Anticipate a major move within the next 1 to 4 upcoming 3-hour candles.
📈 Monitor the Charts: Keep an eye on CVNA’s price action over the next few candles.
Prepare Your Strategy: Whether you’re bullish or bearish, have your trading plan ready to capitalize on the move.
CVNA down to $88 by June ‘25Clear break of trend on weekly and monthly, repeating exact same pattern as the 2021 sell down when it was headed towards bankruptcy.
Major Price Movement Incoming for CVNA!Signalist has detected a precise pattern in NYSE:CVNA trading activity, signaling that a substantial price movement is imminent. This isn’t a random fluctuation—it’s a carefully analyzed precursor to a significant market event.
📅 What to Expect:
⌛ Timeline: Anticipate a major move within the next 1 to 4 upcoming 3-hour candles.
📈 Monitor the Charts: Keep an eye on CVNA’s price action over the next few candles.
Prepare Your Strategy: Whether you’re bullish or bearish, have your trading plan ready to capitalize on the move.
Carvana & RatesCarvana has seen boom, bust and now boom, bust? But what is drives the market's views on Carvana? I think one answer is rates.
Rates seem to have a very strong inverse and leading effect on Carvana stock price. What do you think?
Disclaimer:
The ideas I post are my opinions and not recommendation or advice. They are intended for discussion purposes only.
CVNA Broadening WedgeThis was a stock that I missed out on in 2021/2022, it was a very obvious short and I didn't take it. Fell from $375 all the way down to $5. Now it is giving us all another chance, many reasons to be short on this stock, but the latest Hindenburg report makes it even better.
Watching for it to break below its channel, ideally it would come back for a retest for the perfect entry. This is one I'd be comfortable buying LEAPS or at least 3-6 months of time on and forget it. Gotta be careful shorting in a market like this for now, but will definitely take it if it breaks. Not until then, it would still have a long way to fall.
This has got to be one of the most overvalued stocks in the market with the likes of PLTR and MSTR. These are the names I'll be looking to build larger and longer term short positions on while I still can before the market collapses. Ultimate long term target for this would be from around $60 - $40. Really good opportunity here IMO.
Carvana - continuation of a strong sell off?Hi guys , we would be taking a look into CARVANA Short position.
Fundamentals :
1. High Debt Levels
Carvana's capital-intensive business model, combined with aggressive expansion, has led to a substantial accumulation of debt. The company has issued high-interest debt to finance operations, acquisitions, and inventory growth. This debt burden poses a risk, especially in a rising interest rate environment, as refinancing could become more expensive or unattainable.
2. Profitability Concerns
Despite significant revenue growth over the years, Carvana has consistently struggled to achieve profitability. Operating losses remain high, and the company’s path to sustainable positive earnings remains uncertain. Elevated operating costs, including vehicle reconditioning, marketing, and logistics, have weighed heavily on margins.
3. Cash Flow Problems
Carvana has a history of negative free cash flow, reflecting its inability to generate sufficient cash from operations to fund its business activities. This reliance on external financing is unsustainable in the long term and could lead to liquidity issues if the company fails to improve its cash flow position.
4. Declining Market Sentiment
Carvana’s stock has been highly volatile, experiencing dramatic price swings due to market concerns over its financial stability and business model. Analysts and investors have expressed skepticism about the company's ability to weather economic downturns, especially as demand for used vehicles normalizes post-pandemic.
5. Macroeconomic Challenges
The broader macroeconomic environment has added pressure to Carvana’s business. Rising interest rates have made vehicle financing more expensive for consumers, potentially dampening demand for used cars. Additionally, inflationary pressures on operational costs and declining vehicle prices further strain Carvana’s already thin margins.
6. Competitive Pressure
Carvana operates in a highly competitive market, facing established players like CarMax and emerging online-only platforms. The intense competition has limited its pricing power, forcing the company to invest heavily in customer acquisition and retention, further straining profitability.
7. Regulatory and Legal Risks
The company has faced legal challenges, including consumer complaints and regulatory scrutiny over its vehicle titling and registration practices. Such issues could lead to reputational damage, fines, or increased compliance costs.
Technical Spectrum:
They reached a good strong upper level, and then failed to deliver and sustain around that area.
Entry: 176$
Target: 130$
As always my friends happy trading!
P.S. If you have questions or inquiries about one of my existing set-ups or personal questions / 1 on 1 sessions consider joining my community so you can follow up with me in private!
Stock Of The Day / 01.03.25 / CVNA01.03.2025 / NYSE:CVNA
Fundamentals. 5% drop after negative report from Hindenburg Research.
Technical analysis.
Daily chart: Correction on an uptrend. The stock looks weaker than the market.
Premarket: Gap Down on moderate volume. We mark the level of 182.00, the low of the previous session's post-market.
Main session: The price continued its local downtrend after an attempt to grow in the first half of the trading session. The first attempt to break through the level of 182.00 at 13:57 did not lead to a significant pullback and the price continued to squeeze towards the level. After the second touch, we observe an even weaker pullback, which indicates the weakness of buyers. After the breakdown and retest, the price holds the level of 182.00 from the opposite side of the level. We are considering a short trade.
Trading scenario: breakdown with retest of level 182.00
Entry: 181.34 exit down from the range on increased volume.
Stop: 182.16 we hide it behind the level.
Exit: Close part of the position at 15:22 when a reversal candlestick pattern appears. Close the remaining part of the position above 177.72 when the structure of the downtrend is broken.
Risk Rewards: 1/5
CVNA ... Carvana and its levels since its peakForgot to post this a while back....but here is the NYSE:CVNA levels and where the gaps are...shall price eventually go
Made all the lines to predict the top and forgot to post weeks ago, so, see how they did and go from there...notice correlations and then trade accordingly
CVNA dip buy buying CVNA $250 calls for feb 21 next report is on the 20th expecting it to come out of the lows
and run into the report. i would sell before the report or only hold free contracts.
CVNA Carvana Sell-Off: Hindenburg Research Short PositionIf you haven`t bought CVNA at $25:
Carvana Stock Now Faces Major Risks: A Price Target of $127
Carvana Co. (CVNA), currently trading at $199, faces mounting scrutiny after allegations from Hindenburg Research. The short-seller’s report, titled “Carvana: A Father-Son Accounting Grift for the Ages,” accuses the company of unsustainable growth fueled by lax underwriting standards and questionable insider dealings.
Key Concerns:
Insider Selling: CEO Ernest Garcia III and his father, Ernie Garcia II, sold $3.6 billion in stock between 2020-2021, with an additional $1.4 billion sold last year after a 284% stock surge.
Loan Portfolio Risks: Claims suggest Carvana approves nearly all loan applicants, increasing exposure to subprime defaults as economic conditions tighten.
DriveTime Transactions: Allegations of inflated revenues through sales to DriveTime, owned by Garcia II, raise conflict-of-interest concerns.
Manipulated Results: Extensions on subprime loans reportedly delay delinquencies, misrepresenting financial health.
Outlook:
While the stock has shown resilience, we believe these risks significantly outweigh the rewards. With questionable accounting practices and a vulnerable loan portfolio, our price target is $127.
188 positioning itself on the 100 but support is at the 180sNo sign of any chart pattern reversal; it looks like a straight drop to the 180s. Until then, there is no indication of a bull reversal. I would be hesitant until I have more confirmed angles, but the timeframes suggest it has room to fall.
CVNA LongHere we go, CVNA just barely bumped up above it's 200w moving average, then reported today after hours and from what it appears, they've solidified this move above that barrier.
I'm looking to get in here with a caution against it closing 3D/Weekly underneath it again in the near future.
Revisiting The 2021 Stock Picker Bull MarketThe charts of companies like Applovin, Carvana, and Twilio are all companies that, at one point, were high flyers during the 2020/21 bull market. However, they are also poster child's for its subsequent collapse. But then again, pay close attention to the charts that I've shared here... something is brewing.
Applovin: A Sudden Vertical Surge
Starting with Applovin (far left panel), the stock has gone vertical recently and what's most fascinating about that is the simple fact that the naysayers who were saying it was a bubble have been blown out. Not only has it reclaimed its prior all-time highs, but now it's also soaring to new heights as one of the year's best performers.
Carvana: Rising from the Ashes?
In the middle chart, Carvana’s chart is equally jaw-dropping. Once the poster child for pandemic-era excesses, Carvana’s bubble famously popped in 2022. The steep decline appeared terminal for the company’s stock price. Yet here we are, with Carvana now climbing back a significant chunk of its losses.
In my view, this rebound reflects an emerging trend: the market’s willingness to forgive past excesses.
Twilio: From Bust to “Interesting”
Finally, Twilio’s chart (far right panel) shows a similar recovery story. After its epic collapse in 2022, Twilio found itself trading in the bargain bin. Now, the stock is seeing renewed interest. While the rise isn’t as steep as Applovin’s or Carvana’s, the pattern of recovery is unmistakable and it's why I am writing this post: is something brewing? Are these companies for real? Can they print money for investors, emerge into new sectors, build new products, and expand? It seems that the builders are clearly emerging.
I write all of this to say the following – I believe there are a basket of stocks that are falling into this category and as we had into 2025, you should have your watchlist ready. I will soon be publishing my extensive watchlist on this subject. Stay tuned!
309 looks like an area which has been crowded still bullishThe chart pattern shows the stock's upward movement is likely, with levels stretching out and allowing it to run after a slight pause. What was a parabolic move has now turned into a consistent run and is closing in on 300s and the previous highs set a few years ago. Target 300
CVNA: Prepping for a Symmetrical Triangle BreakoutCarvana (CVNA) is shaping up into a nice symmetrical triangle on the hourly chart. This type of pattern typically signals consolidation before a breakout, and it's looking like we’re getting close to a decision point.
Price has been consistently making higher lows and lower highs, squeezing tighter within the triangle. Right now, it’s testing the upper trendline around the $250 level, and the volume is starting to pick up—something to watch closely.
What I’m Seeing:
Triangle Formation: Clear symmetrical triangle, which could break either way.
Key Levels:
Bullish breakout: Above $250.00
Bearish breakout: Below $240.00
Game Plan:
If it breaks up: I’m looking to go long on a strong move above $250, ideally with some volume behind it. Targets would be $260, $270, and potentially $280.
If it breaks down: I’d consider shorts below $240, aiming for $230 and $220.
Managing Risk:
Stop Loss:
Longs: Below $240, in case of a failed breakout.
Shorts: Above $250, to avoid getting caught in a fakeout.
This one is all about watching the breakout direction. The triangle setup is clean, and with some patience, this could turn into a solid trade. Let’s see where it goes.
CVNA LONG UPDATEBroke out with nice volume, entered during the pendant on the 8 daily EMA, $268 first target, riding the rest to 290 area with trailing loss.
CVNA LONGAnticipating a breakout next 2 days. Starter position here, after break should see 270 based on patter fibs.
30% correction, then more than 100% upsideThe whole analysis is based on Elliott Wave Analysis:
I believe that we have only just ended the Wave A of Wave (5), heading into a wave B, acting as a corrective move.
Idealy, I would like the price to dip into the 0.5 to 0.618 retracement zone (165-180).
This might take a while, but once this correction is over, I see a very strong move upwords, as a wave C of (5). This should take us to a new ATH anywhere between 400 and 515 (more precise predictions can be made as we approach the mid to end of the wave C).
I would probably wait till the correction is over to buy, 185-180 acting as a buying zone!
CVNA: Carvana’s Relentless Rally with No Signs of SlowingCarvana (CVNA) has been on an absolute tear, with no signs of slowing down.
Explosive Rally: CVNA recently shattered key resistance levels and is now pushing toward the ambitious target near $260—a near 100% potential gain from current levels if the momentum keeps driving upward.
Relentless Uptrend: Riding a sharp ascending trendline, CVNA is sticking close to its highs without much of a correction in sight. The SMA 150 is finally turning up, echoing the strength of the long-term trend shift.
Volume & Momentum: Volume’s been building up, fueling this rally. The RSI is riding high, yet this stock shows no interest in taking a breather. CVNA’s got that “all gas, no brakes” energy that keeps bulls excited.
Bottom Line: CVNA’s relentless uptrend and strong targets make this a chart that demands attention. With solid momentum, volume support, and fierce trend strength, Carvana looks like it’s got a lot more road ahead.
