CVNA trade ideas
CVNA is Ready to Rally
NYSE:CVNA Carvana Co. found a bottom at the all time low of 3.57 on Dec 7, 2022 after a significant decline from all time highs above 375 in August of 2021. The boom was largely driven by economic factors, there was a booming Used Car market with ultra-low interest rates and a desire to stay indoors with the pandemic that pushed people to use the new type of car-buying delivery service. The following bust was also largely economic: a waning Used Car market, rising interest rates and a subsequent bunch of bad earnings for CVNA.
Now CVNA has steadied revenue, consistent Green Earnings Beats and made consistent higher lows from the bottom and shown strong supports at 7, 25, and 38. While up nearly 15x from the low a year ago, there is a lot of room to run even at current prices. Strong growth potential and the acquisition of brick/mortar car dispensers will allow for more robust revenue beneath the continued growth in deliveries as interest rates level out and the Used Car market resurfaces.
Expect this major bounce momentum off the All Time Low to continue to at least a 38% retracement and previous resistance levels of 145 at a minimum target. With time and consistent momentum, as we've seen over previous years on this asset, prices will likely go back up to common retracement levels .500, .618, .786 and even beyond to new highs. While it could continue, this asset is very volatile, be sure to take profits at target levels.
Carvana breakoutWith hindsight, it wasn't wise to buy NYSE:CVNA as it gapped up (blue arrow). Luckily, the stock has consolidated without breaking down. Yesterday, following the FOMC decision, it broke above the consolidation range. Expect an upside move on NYSE:CVNA but there might be a resistance near $56.
$CVNA 5th Wave Incoming?$CVNA:1D
Signal has almost completed the 4th wave down. I’ll be looking to see whether the 5th wave to the upside takes form. 5th waves are wiley and they fail all the time so it’s possible the local low is not in yet. Price coming off of its lowest point on the RSI YTD and is now coming out of oversold on our 1D RSI.
The ‘model moat’ on NYSE:CVNA is very thin but in this case focusing solely on the model moat obscures the ‘experiential moat’ that customers ‘associate in’ with $CVNA. In other words, even though the model is highly replicable, the experience the product provides to its customers is not easy to replicate and has earned consumer trust and confidence in a way competitors in the used automotive retail space have failed to do so far.
NYSE:CVNA is still down more than 90% from its 2021 highs and used car sales revenues might be better protected in a recessionary environment than new car sales. Another factor to consider is the limitations placed on the EV market by the ‘graphite’ supply constraints and the effect deteriorating trade relations with China might have on the price of graphite. The graphite supply constraints in conjunction with problems scaling EV’s across our decaying electrical grid here in the U.S. could place a ‘hard bid’ on used, gas powered vehicles in the near term until both the functionality and costs surrounding the scaling of the EV market become more feasible. The vast majority of the cars sold by NYSE:CVNA are used, more gas powered and cheaper than new cars sold by dealerships. I expect NYSE:CVNA to retest the 0.5 Retrace (38.89) before year’s end and possibly sooner.
NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. ALL STOCKS CAN GO TO ZERO.
CVNA Analysis - Cup and HandleSubject: Cup and Handle Formation
Based on my charting analysis it's evident that a cup and handle pattern has formed on CVNA. This is highlighted by the lime green lines on the chart. The RSI and Volume indicators show a progressing upward trend to break through established resistance at $36.63. This resistance level was re-established by a retest on 11/15/23 notated on the chart. I believe the price will continue to consolidate and possibly retest support at the identified $24.98 level. This support level is strengthened historically by past support levels in 2022. The price is also consolidating at the 200 day moving average (highlighted purple) while it's beginning to approach the 50 day moving average (highlighted light blue).
I'm forecasting that the price will continue to consolidate and possibly retest support down at the $20.50 level. This could become even more possible after Amazon announced it will be launching online vehicle sales. My key level of entry will be above $37 for true confirmation on the bullish uptrend. Should the price drop below key support at $20.50 I will look to the downside and target the $10 mark. I will continue to update as time progresses.
CVNA 3D Q4 2023, Q1 2024 Publishing this CVNA chart, as it's been an interesting one to follow. Above all the moving averages and looking to be retesting previous resistance.
Interested to see how this plays out considering the new, high interest rate environment and the current state of car sales.
From it's 3.60 low to now it's gone through a 10x rise, let's see how it opens 2024.
$CVNA - short before upward movementNYSE:CVNA has a good potential in the nearest feature, but it needs for correction.
29-31 is a layers to be ready to buy.
Does not constitute a recommendation.
#furoreggs #investing #stocks #shares #idea #forecast #trading #analysis
If you want to discuss, please subscribe and challenge this point of view )
CVNA Carvana Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought CVNA here:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of CVNA Carvana prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 25usd strike price in the money Calls with
an expiration date of 2023-11-17,
for a premium of approximately $3.95.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.