Oil stocks still a short as coronavirus crushes global demand.You can see from the chart that the price of Chevron (as one example) has declined in line with crude (WTI) price. However, you can also see the stocks tend to overshoot both on the upside and downside. This suggests there's more downside before the stocks bottom and can be bought.
CVX trade ideas
CHEVRON (CVX): Close To Key Structure
chevron is coming closer and closer to a key structure support level.
I would consider a buying opportunity from 103.0 level with a potential bullish reaction to 114 / 121 levels.
with a stop below the X the position will be protected against the volatility and occasional fluctuations!
good luck!
Go long on CVX.Wall Street analysts see Chevron reporting earnings of $1.45 per share on revenue of $39.25 billion.
In the same quarter last year, Chevron reported EPS of $1.95 on revenue of $42.35 billion. If the company were to post earnings inline with the consensus estimate when it reports Friday, EPS would be down 25.64%. Sales would have fallen 7.32% from the same quarter last year. Chevron's reported EPS has stacked up against analyst estimates in the past like this:
Chevron Corp swing trade ideaChevron Corp -
Breakout to $133 or breakdown to $103?
The price likely has a bullish trait as support awaits at approx $115.
I favour the bullish movement upwards right now as the upwards trending (green dotted) support line awaits price. However, as always, wait for price action to form to provoke your next trade move here.
Enjoy your weekend and have a great trading week ahead.
All comments welcome.
Chevron Grinds Out a Higher Low as Energy Starts to MoveCrude oil is pushing back to its highest levels since September's drone attacks in Saudi Arabia. Energy stocks are following. The sector's the worst performer by far on a year-to-date basis. But in the last two weeks, the SPDR Energy Fund is leading all the other major SPDR tracking funds.
Chevron is the second-biggest company in XLE behind Exxon Mobil . Just as its bigger peer has been holding support at $67, CVX has been grinding out a higher low at $116. (See related XOM idea .)
The chart doesn't yet show a clear trend forming. However, the wider backdrop of oil trying to bottom creates a potentially interesting risk/reward to the upside if traders use $116 for risk-management.
Recapping the energy space, OPEC deepened its oil-production cuts by 500,000 barrels per day last week. Two days ago, the cartel forecast a crude deficit for 2020. Drilling in the U.S. has also dropped to its lowest levels in 2-1/2 years. Furthermore, two major geopolitical risks are fading: China and the U.S. have a trade deal and Boris Johnson's victory in the U.K. provides clarity about the direction of Brexit.
Chevron - CVX - Daily Market ReportCVX : NYSE
123.61 : 09/19/2019 : 1742 ET Change: -0.58 (-0.47%)
Medium Bull Mode
Report Type = Macro, End of Day
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Market Mode of Behavior: CVX : NYSE : 123.61 : Macro: Eight specific set-ups that dictate the current trading strategy...
Currently, this market meets the Medium Bull Mode criteria. Price is trending higher.
For the entire data set this market has been in Medium Bull Mode 9.89% of the time.
The average number of bars spent in this Mode before transitioning normally = 13. Since the current number of bars in Mode = 14, this market may transition into a new behavior soon.
The average price growth during this behavior is approximately = 2.24. This is compared to the current price growth of 6.09. Based upon the closing price of the most recent bar, price growth has been exceeded.
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Transitions & Time: CVX : NYSE : 123.61 : Macro: Background on the current Mode of Behavior...
Transition from Volatile Bear Mode occurred 14 bar(s) ago.
According to our signal logic, this transition occurred abnormally! A logical transition from one Mode of Behavior to another has NOT occured. We advise waiting for the next transition into Volatile Mode before trading again.
Possessing knowledge of the preceding Mode of Behavior as well as the most likely subsequent Mode assists in executing current strategies, exits, and setups for the next trade.
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Standard Analysis: CVX : NYSE : 123.61 : Macro: A closer look at the current Mode of Behavior...
The current bar's close at 123.61 demonstrates that prices should continue higher.
Cautionary price levels 4.18% below the market are outside the Average True Range price percentage window of 1.68%, currently lowering the short-term probability of transitioning out of Medium Bull Mode.
The Average True Range price percentage window is simply a function of the 16 bar Average True Range, divided by the underlying's closing price of the last bar. Cautionary price levels are proprietary. Prices in this region indicate possible Mode transitions.
Volatility based on the 30 day standard deviation = 21.07%. Volatility based upon the 30 day Average True Range = 2.08 points, (based upon the underlying's price scale.)
The price change versus 1 week ago = 2.11. The price change versus 1 month ago = 5.89. The price change versus 1 year ago = 14.82.
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Advice: CVX : NYSE : 123.61 : Macro: Straight-forward wisdom on how to position for near-term profits...
Alert! Transactions in FOREX, Futures, and Stocks, carry a high degree of risk. No slippage or commissions are included here or in our Statistics tables. Your FCM will charge you a commission.
In Transition & Time, we noted that a logical transition from one Mode of Behavior to another has NOT occured, and previously advised waiting for the next transition into Volatile Mode before trading again. If you must trade, are obligated to trade, or already have a position, please use the 'standard' Mode of Behaivior advice provided here with extreme caution as volatility may be increasing dramatically.
Range trade this market from the long side. Buy dips. Do not trend trade. Place buy orders to establish longs above recent lows.
During Medium Bull Mode longer time-frame traders disagree with short and medium time-frame traders. Medium-term banded ranges occur with a bullish slope. (++-)
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Natural Attraction: CVX : NYSE : 123.61 : Macro: Expected tendencies and targets...
During Medium Bull Mode prices should tend towards a price structure located at 128.35.
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Support & Resistance: CVX : NYSE : 123.61 : Macro: Specific trading levels or bands...
SPEEDVIEW TRADING WIDGET
A key level to watch, located at 117.43 is exactly 6.18 points, or 5.0% away.
Trading Band6 Level = 129.88
Trading Band5 Level = 127.80
Trading Band4 Level = 125.72
Trading Band3 Level = 123.64
Trading Band2 Level = 121.56
Trading Band1 Level = 119.48
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Price Growth / Decay Projections: CVX : NYSE : 123.61 : Macro: Growth / decay projections...
Target#1 Hit @ 119.80
Target#2 Hit @ 123.17
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Common Technicals: CVX : NYSE : 123.61 : Macro: Values for commonly used technical analysis indicators...
Macro = Daily Bars...
Momentum Indicators
09 Day RSI = 68.72
10 Day RSI = 67.34
14 Day RSI = 62.69
Moving Averages
003 Bar MA = 123.90
004 Bar MA = 123.95
005 Bar MA = 123.46
008 Bar MA = 122.73
010 Bar MA = 121.95
014 Bar MA = 120.60
018 Bar MA = 119.68
020 Bar MA = 119.36
030 Bar MA = 119.29
040 Bar MA = 119.96
050 Bar MA = 121.04
100 Bar MA = 120.92
200 Bar MA = 119.36
Oscillators
12,26 Day MACD = 1.12
9 Day Smoothed MACD = 0.32
Difference = 0.80
Volatility
20 Period Bollinger Bands +2 Devs = 124.77
20 Period Bollinger Bands -2 Devs = 113.38
Wilder Parabolic Stop and Reverse
ParabolicSAR = 117.40
Chevron looks very much like a major breakout ahead. Given the turbulent times and what looks to be a spike in oil prices, it is not unthinkable that a multiyear breakout is ahead. Add to the mix a great yield of 4-5%, CVX should offer some fantastic rewards in the short term.
Chevron Corp. engages in the provision of administrative, financial management, and technology support for energy and chemical operations. It operates through the Upstream and Downstream segments. The Upstream segment consists of exploration, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas; liquefaction, transportation, and regasification associated with liquefied natural gas; transporting crude oil by major international oil export pipelines; processing, transporting, storage, and marketing of natural gas; and a gas-to-liquids plant. The Downstream segment comprises refining of crude oil into petroleum products; marketing of crude oil and refined products; transporting of crude oil and refined products by pipeline, marine vessel, motor equipment, and rail car; and manufacturing and marketing of commodity petrochemicals, plastics for industrial uses, and fuel and lubricant additives. The company was founded in 1906 and is headquartered in San Ramon, CA.
CVX long setupCVX’s innovation outlook is trending down based on a current score of 77 out of 99, outperforming sector average. Jobs growth over the past year has decreased and insiders sentiment is negative. CVX is an Average Performer in terms of sustainability. It is most exposed to BP p.l.c. as its supplier. Over the past 4 quarters CVX beat earnings estimates 3 times and it pays dividend lower than its peers.
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