MSFT Trade Recap (21Feb25)MSFT trade setup was spot on.
Sometimes the play just doesn't work out.
Will be looking out for it next week.
MSFT trade ideas
$MSFT buyers coming in. $422 looks possible soonNASDAQ:MSFT - Stock finally seeing some buyers coming in. Stock bouncing off $405 region after testing it multiple times. looking for calls above $416.80 for a move towards $420 and $422, Stock has a gap from $422.3 to $440. looking for gap fill if enters here
MSFT with Room to Run to UpsideI guess what I love about this one is the fact that right now MSFT isn't exactly getting all that much love, and this sleeper has room to run if it can get above it's 200 day SMA! This one has been open for a couple days and if we can get a VIX crush Friday tomorrow it may just be getting started!
The signal was created by the King Trading Momentum Strategy combines the 5 EMA crossing above the 13 EMA, RSI strength, favorable momentum as measured by ADX plus evaluating recent volume changes and even something that measures breakout momentum called Beta for some equities! MSFT and over 100 equities are built into this script with optimal backtest take profits and stop losses and can be toggled on by simply checking a box (default they are turned off). I always enable Using Bar Magnifier and On Bar Close in Properties.
MICROSOFT: On the way to the top of the channel!! We're in!!On Wednesday, January 29, Microsoft presented its results. Its results were better than expected in Sales, EBIT and BNA, however, the growth of Azure (cloud) disappointed and the value began to fall towards the bottom of the LATERAL channel in which it has been moving for months.
Main figures compared to the Bloomberg consensus:
Sales: 69,632 million dollars (+12%) vs. 68,903 million dollars expected.
EBIT: 31,653 million dollars (+17.1%) vs. 30,258M$ expected.
BNA: 24,108 million dollars (+10.2%) vs. 23,443M$ expected.
Within the three major segments of the company, the cloud business is slightly disappointing (growth of +31% vs. +32% expected by consensus). In addition, the management team at the earnings conference pointed out that Azure (cloud business) growth will be somewhat more moderate than expected (range +31%/+32% vs. +33% in this quarter).
--> What do we do with Microsoft?
Despite the cloud disappointment, if we have a long-term view, Microsoft is a very attractive stock to have in our portfolio.
--> What does it look like technically?
The technical aspect is BULLISH/SIDEWAYS, therefore, if we want to enter the stock, we should wait for the price to touch the bottom of the channel and give us a signal of the start of bullish momentum. AND THAT IS JUST WHAT IS HAPPENING NOW!!.
In H1 timeframe we already have bullish STRENGTH and MOMENTUM (Bull) and in H4 timeframe the MOMENTUM, therefore, we can now enter LONG in the value.
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Strategy to follow:
ENTRY: We will open 2 long positions in the current area of 414
POSITION 1 (TP1): We close the first position in the 446 area (+7.5%)
--> Stop Loss at 385 (-7.5%).
POSITION 2 (TP2): We open a Trailing Stop type position.
--> Initial dynamic Stop Loss at (-7.5%) (coinciding with 385 of position 1).
--> We modify the dynamic Stop Loss to (-1%) when the price reaches TP1 (446).
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SET UP EXPLANATIONS
*** How do you know which 2 long positions to open? Let's take an example: If we want to invest 2,000 euros in the stock, what we do is divide that amount by 2, and instead of opening 1 position of 2,000, we will open 2 positions of 1,000 each.
*** What is a Trailing Stop? A Trailing Stop allows a trade to continue gaining value when the market price moves in a favorable direction, but automatically closes the trade if the market price suddenly moves in an unfavorable direction by a certain distance. That certain distance is the dynamic Stop Loss.
-->Example: IF the dynamic Stop Loss is at -1%, it means that if the price drops by -1%, the position will be closed. If the price rises, the Stop Loss also rises to maintain that -1% in the rises, therefore, the risk is increasingly lower until the position becomes profitable. In this way, very strong and stable price trends can be exploited, maximizing profits.
Microsoft Wave Analysis – 19 February 2025
- Microsoft reversed from strong support level 405.00
- Likely to rise to resistance level 417.80
Microsoft recently reversed up from the support zone between the multi-month support level 405.00 (which has been reversing the price from September) and the lower daily Bollinger band.
The upward reversal from this support zone stopped the C-wave of the active ABC correction (2) from the start of December.
Given the strength of the support level 405.00, Microsoft can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 417.80 (which reversed the price at the start of February).
The new Quantum Play!I wrote this article 18 months ago:
Now we should add MSFT to the list:
As of August 2023, the most advanced quantum computers are:
IBM Osprey, with 433 qubits. It was announced in November 2022 and is still under development.Opens in a new windowspectrum.ieee.orgIBM Osprey quantum computer
IonQ Aria, with 128 qubits. It was announced in May 2022.Opens in a new windowionq.comIonQ Aria quantum computer
Google Sycamore, with 53 qubits. It was announced in October 2019 and achieved quantum supremacy.
Opens in a new windowai.googleblog.comGoogle Sycamore quantum computer
Rigetti Forest-1, with 112 qubits. It was announced in February 2022.Opens in a new windowen.wikipedia.orgRigetti Forest-1 quantum computer
D-Wave Advantage 2, with 128 qubits. It was announced in October 2021.Opens in a new windowwww.dwavesys.comD-Wave Advantage 2 quantum computer
These quantum computers are still in the early stages of development, but they are rapidly becoming more powerful. As the number of qubits increases, so does the potential for these computers to solve problems that are intractable for classical computers.
In the future, quantum computers are expected to be used for a variety of applications, including drug discovery, materials science, and financial modeling. They could also be used to develop new encryption methods and break existing ones.
The development of quantum computers is a rapidly evolving field, and it is difficult to say which company will ultimately create the most powerful quantum computer. However, the progress that has been made in recent years is very promising, and it is clear that quantum computers have the potential to revolutionize many aspects of our lives.
MSFT Darkpool AccumulationMSFT has had a very large amount of Dark pool accumulation during the last week and today. Sellers have also been leaving since MSFT fell into the $410 area.
Looking back at Option Order Flow - Institutions do seem to be bullish and are targeting $420. Additionally, an $85 Million dollar call option for May 16 was bought at $417.19 back on January 31st. There is less Put premiums than Call premiums over the last couple months. Logically, the skew on MSFT looks more bullish than bearish at its current price.
Due to the Relative Strength MSFT showed today during the market dip and recent record inflows of share purchasing, I believe that we could see a 2-3% move upwards soon. Their ER was positive and there is still a buy signal on Wall Street preferring Software to Hardware and MSFT has extremely important software's, not just their Open AI stake.
What next for MSFT stock after recent pushWhat next for MSFT stock after the recent push?
If this baby gets to $400, I will take a buy. TP $433 and SL $370. this will be a Risk/Reward of 1:3.43
My view and zones are displayed on the chart.
Trade with care
MSFT Stock Analysis & GEX Options Insights – Feb. 18Technical Analysis (TA) for MSFT
* Current Price Action: MSFT is in a descending triangle formation, showing signs of weakness, but it is currently consolidating near a key support level.
* Support & Resistance Levels:
* Immediate Resistance: $412 – A breakout above this level could trigger more upside.
* Next Resistance: $420 – Aligns with the 3rd Call Wall from GEX data.
* Major Resistance: $430 – This level coincides with the next call resistance.
* First Support: $405 – If MSFT fails to hold here, a move lower is likely.
* Major Support: $400 – A break below this could accelerate selling pressure.
* Critical Breakdown Level: $395 – A key Put Wall, where sellers may gain control.
* Indicators:
* MACD: Slightly bullish crossover forming, indicating a potential bounce.
* Stochastic RSI: Rising from oversold levels, suggesting possible upside movement.
Options Flow & GEX Analysis
* GEX (Gamma Exposure):
* Highest Positive NetGEX / Call Resistance: $408 – MSFT is trading right at this level, a breakout could lead to further upside.
* 39.1% Call Wall: $430 – A major resistance zone where calls are heavily positioned.
* 21.47% Call Wall: $420 – Another resistance where price might slow down.
* Put Wall Support: $400 – The strongest downside support from options positioning.
* 3rd Put Wall: $395 – If MSFT breaks below this, further downside is likely.
* IV & Sentiment:
* IV Rank (IVR): 16.3 → Low implied volatility, meaning options are cheaper.
* IVx Avg: 24.8 → A moderate volatility level.
* Options Sentiment: Puts = 12.8% → Slightly bearish sentiment.
Trade Setups
📈 Bullish Scenario (Breakout Play):
* Entry: Above $412 with strong volume.
* Target: $420, then $430 (Gamma Squeeze Potential).
* Stop Loss: Below $408.
📉 Bearish Scenario (Breakdown Play):
* Entry: Below $405.
* Target: $400 or $395 (Put Support).
* Stop Loss: Above $408.
Final Thoughts
* MSFT is at a critical inflection point, trading near key resistance at $408-$412.
* A move above $412 could lead to a rally toward $420-$430, driven by options flow.
* A break below $405 could send it towards $400 and lower.
* Best Trade Approach: Wait for confirmation of a breakout above $412 or breakdown below $405 before entering a trade.
🚨 This analysis is for educational purposes only. Trade responsibly and manage risk! 🚨
What's next for Microsoft?The 50 EMA (green line) has historically acted as dynamic support, but with price now trading below it, there is a clear shift in momentum toward the bearish side. If price fails to reclaim the 50 EMA (currently around $415-$420) and faces rejection, it could signal further downside toward the $380 support zone, making a short trade viable with a stop above $426. However, if buyers step in at $387-$390 and we see a strong bullish reaction, it could lead to a rebound toward the 50 EMA and potentially the $427-442 distribution zone. The key decision point lies in whether price can reclaim or decisively reject the 50 EMA, dictating the next major move. A clean reclaim would signal bullish continuation, while a firm rejection could confirm further downside before any recovery.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Trading and investing involve risk, and independent research or consultation with a professional is recommended before making any financial decisions.
Microsoft 2-17 (scalping + forecast)🔥 Market Overview:
Trend: Microsoft (MSFT) is in a short-term downtrend, struggling below key resistance levels. The stock is near support but lacks strong buying momentum.
Key Levels:
Resistance: $415–$420 (critical breakout zone).
Support: $405–$408 (near-term holding zone).
Indicators:
EMA 9: $408.59 (acting as a dynamic resistance).
EMA 200: $423.78 (long-term bearish signal below this level).
Supertrend: $415.50 (acting as resistance).
MACD: Weak bullish crossover, but still negative, indicating uncertain momentum.
RSI: 43.63 (neutral to slightly oversold, but no strong reversal signal yet).
🔥 Scalping Strategy:
🩸 1. Momentum Scalping:
Buy near: $405–$408 if support holds.
Target: $415–$420.
Stop-loss below: $403.
🩸 2. Breakout Scalping:
Long if price breaks above: $415, targeting $423.
Short if price rejects $415, targeting $405.
🩸 3. Range Scalping:
Sell near: $415–$420 resistance.
Target: $408–$405.
Stop-loss: $421 if breakout occurs.
🔥 Mid-Term Trend Forecast (1-3 Weeks):
If MSFT breaks $415, expect a push toward $423.
A rejection at $415 could lead to further downside toward $400.
RSI is low but not signaling a strong reversal yet.
🔥 News & Market Context:
AI & Cloud Growth: Microsoft remains a leader in AI and cloud computing, which provides long-term strength.
Tech Sector Struggles: The stock is underperforming compared to other tech giants.
Macroeconomic Factors: Market conditions remain volatile, impacting growth stocks.
🔥 Decision:
🩸 Short-term: Look for a breakout above $415 or a rejection for shorting opportunities.
🩸 Mid-term: Bearish unless MSFT clears $415 with strong momentum.
🩸 Ideal Play: Buy only if $405 holds, or short if price struggles at $415.
👑 Final Verdict: Microsoft remains weak, with no strong bullish confirmation. Bulls need a breakout above $415 to regain strength.
🔥 LucanInvestor's Quote: "A weak trend is a dangerous trade—wait for conviction before committing."
Microsoft Set to Bounce Back: Consider Going LONG Next Week
- Key Insights: Microsoft remains a strong player in the tech sector, with
recent earnings highlighting its resilience. The current retracement
presents a buying opportunity as analysts remain bullish on the stock,
driven by solid fundamentals and prospects in cloud computing and artificial
intelligence. The backing from large investors, including BlackRock, further
confirms its growth potential in the near future, making it a favorable pick
for long-term investors.
- Price Targets: Based on the analysis, traders should consider the following
targets and stop levels for next week:
Next week targets: T1: $432, T2: $446.
Stop levels: S1: $405, S2: $400.
This alignment follows the criteria for long positions, reflecting a structured approach to potential gains
while minimizing risks.
- Recent Performance: Microsoft’s recent performance has showcased its pivotal
role in the market, frequently moving in correlation with fellow tech
leaders. Although the stock experienced a price retracement, it has endured
strong backing from both institutional investors and retail sentiment. This
fluctuation is seen as a temporary setback in the context of its long-term
growth trajectory.
- Expert Analysis: Market experts have expressed optimism surrounding Microsoft,
highlighting its strategic positioning in sectors poised for growth,
specifically artificial intelligence and cloud services. Analysts suggest
the current price movements create an attractive entry point for long-term
investments, with many predicting a forthcoming rebound. This sentiment is
reinforced by the performance trends in the broader technology space.
- News Impact: Significant market events, particularly earnings reports from key
technology firms, are shaping the outlook for Microsoft. The ongoing
discussion around artificial intelligence investments, in which Microsoft is
a central player, reinforces its significance in the market. Despite facing
some volatility, Microsoft's sturdy fundamentals and strategic focus
position it as a favored choice for investors looking towards the future.
Microsoft.. YIKES!Who kept an eye on Microsoft like I mentioned not so long ago?
Well, it lost that rising trend line and is now on the final remains of horizontal support.
Could fall really fast below that.
Is Microsoft really going to start moving up?After feeling like it has been in a never ending sideways cycle is Microsoft ready to start moving up again or is the company happy sleeping still?
We are at a demand zone maybe we can get a push up from here.....
Microsoft - This Will Lead To Trouble!Microsoft ( NASDAQ:MSFT ) shows some clear weakness:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
Back in mid 2024 Microsoft created another new all time high and in doing so also retested the major upper resistance trendline of the longer term rising channel formation. Following this bearish retest, a correction is very expected before we then see the bullish trend continuation.
Levels to watch: $350
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
MICROSOFT: Rectangle bottom buy opportunity.Microsoft is still bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 39.052, MACD = -6.600, ADX = 39.471) but that is to be expected as the price breached the 0.786 and almost touched the bottom of the 5 month Rectangle pattern. All breaks under the 0.786 have been strong buy opportunities targeting at least the 0.236 Fib. The trade is long (TP = 438.50).
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MSFTShort Fundamental Analysis – MSFT
1. Context
• Core Business & Revenue Streams
• Microsoft generates steady income from a diversified portfolio: Windows OS, Office 365 (productivity suite), and Azure (cloud computing).
• Cloud services (Azure) remain a key growth driver, competing with AWS (Amazon) and GCP (Google).
• Macro Environment
• Ongoing demand for remote work and digital transformation supports enterprise software and cloud adoption.
• Potential headwinds include a global economic slowdown, which could impact IT spending, and rising competition in AI-driven services.
2. Possible Direction
• Bias: Generally bullish over the medium to long term, given Microsoft’s strong balance sheet, reliable cash flow, and continued focus on cloud and AI innovations.
• Alternate Scenario:
• A sharp downturn in corporate IT budgets or intensified cloud competition might slow revenue growth.
• Regulatory actions (antitrust scrutiny, data protection rules) could weigh on sentiment and valuation.
3. Factors to Watch
1. Azure Growth & Market Share
• Key metric for investors, as cloud revenue gains help offset any stagnation in legacy Windows or Office segments.
2. Earnings Reports & Guidance
• Management’s outlook on revenues, margins, and capital expenditures provides clues about demand trends.
3. AI Initiatives & Acquisitions
• Microsoft’s ongoing integration of AI across its product suite (e.g., GitHub Copilot, Bing Chat) and strategic acquisitions can drive future growth.
4. Regulatory & Competitive Landscape
• Watch for potential antitrust concerns or new market entrants in cloud, productivity software, or AI.
4. Overall Conclusion
• MSFT is well-positioned to benefit from enterprise cloud adoption and AI-driven services.
• Its diverse revenue streams and strong balance sheet offer resilience in times of macro uncertainty.
• Despite potential challenges from competition and regulatory scrutiny, Microsoft’s long-term fundamentals remain solid.
Disclaimer
This analysis is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Stock markets can be volatile, and individual securities carry significant risks. Always consider your personal risk tolerance, diversify your portfolio, and consult reputable financial advisors or official filings before making investment decisions.
MSFT Shorts TP hitThe swing short trade idea posted earlier has hit its TP, final target was hit and all positions were taken off. I still think MSFT will trade lower given that Nasdaq is bearish. If you followed this idea congratulations.
STOCKS | AI | Amazon, Meta & MSFTPeople who are saying that AI is just a bubble are missing the big picture. Huge tech companies are pouring serious money into it, which shows they believe AI is here to stay.
We're talking massive investments – like over $320 billion in AI infrastructure by 2025, according to the Financial Times. Amazon is planning over $100 billion in capital expenditures in 2025, mainly focused on AI infrastructure. This could be huge not only for NASDAQ:AMZN as a whole but also for the AI industry.
Alphabet is also throwing in around $75 billion this year to boost its AI capabilities. These kinds of investments from the top players make it clear: they know you have to spend big to win in the AI game and clearly there is a race going on, especially after the release of DeepSeekAI. American companies don't want to be left behind, and it's likely that they will pour money into integrating AI to improve their business operation - with the ultimate aim to improve profit - which is great for stock prices. How they make money from AI might change over time, but the overall direction is obvious – AI is changing everything and driving innovation.
According to Statista, the global AI market is predicted to reach around $826 billion by 2030. That kind of growth tells you AI is going to be a major force in just about every industry. And therefore I believe that all the companies making major investment in AI will also see exponential growth over the next 5 years - meaning it may be a longer term game play.
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NASDAQ:MSFT NASDAQ:META
$MSFT short term consolidation within a upward trending channelNASDAQ:MSFT stock price has stagnated since Aug 2024. Since hitting a peak of $ 468 in July 2024 the NASDAQ:MSFT stock has been consolidating sideways. But the stock is still within the upward sloping channel in a weekly price chart. We are bullish if the price is above the midpoint of the upward sloping regression channel which lies $380.
We should remember from Louis Yamada that ‘The bigger the base, the higher in space’. So, the consolidation in NASDAQ:MSFT can result in a major breakout. The daily Fib retracement of 0.236 lies $ 406. Accumulate NASDAQ:MSFT between $406 and $380.
MSFT ShortsPossible swing idea on MSFT, took it based off that H4 SIBI and above WOP for premium entry. Partials taken rest is risk off.
$MSFT with a neutral outlook following its earnings #StocksThe PEAD projected a neutral outlook for NASDAQ:MSFT after a negative under reaction following its earnings release placing the stock in drift D with an expected accuracy of 57.14%%.
$MSFT - pattern breakdown here. below $410MSFT - weekly triangle pattern breakdown here. if continues to fail $410 we can see $400 and $385. put idea below $410
