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NVDA trade ideas

NVIDIA Rounding Top: Bearish Swings Q1 2025TA Nvidia demonstrated strong growth throughout 2024. However, this year, it has shown rather a poor performance. When an uptrend started to weaken, it gave off subtle signals before a full reversal happened on the horizon. One of the first clues is that the highs collectively begin to appear curved compared with initial rough growth. This reflects the loss of aggressive bullish intent, showing hesitation and vulnerability to a reversal. The price still makes higher highs, but the incremental gain between each peak shrinks. This declining magnitude in price advancement suggests that buyers are gradually losing strength with each move. These shallow bullish waves often get sold into quickly, showing early distribution behavior. Simultaneously, it takes longer time for price to reach each successive high . When higher highs occur at reduced frequency, the rally phases become stretched out. This indicates buyers are struggling, and sellers are gaining time-based control. Extended Rounding Top Pattern Price crosses above the rounding top Indicates a failed reversal and potential bullish breakout. Suggests renewed buying strength and possible trend continuation. I'd recommend using confirmation tools like volume spikes and momentum indicators which are essential to validate the breakout. Price reaches the rounding top and stalls or reverses Confirms the bearish reversal signal of the pattern. Acts as a strong resistance zone, often leading to a downtrend. Alongside with fibs, it can be used as a cue to take profits, exit long trades, or enter short positions. FUNDAMENTALS Catalysts of Bearish Swings A transition phase characterized by a series of sharp bearish swings, marked by a sequence of Lower Highs and Lower Lows, shaping a well-defined downward channel. Drop #1: ATH → Higher Low (Early January 2025) After Nvidia’s euphoric 2024 AI hype rally, it was a matter of time as some institutional Investors locked in profits, causing initial drop. Valuation metrics (P/E; P/S) reached extremes creating grounds for a correction. The Fed’s January meeting hinted at fewer rate cuts than the market expected. Rising Treasury yields pressured tech stocks. The U.S. government has imposed strict export controls on advanced semiconductors, AI chips and related technology to China. Drop #2: Lower High → Lower Low (Late January to February 2025) While Nvidia beat Q4 earnings expectations, its forward guidance disappointed. Management cited softening data center orders and consumer GPU inventory corrections. Concerns about potential erosion in gross margins due to increasing costs and competitive pricing pressure from AMD and Intel. AI infrastructure spending was plateauing faster than expected, leading to re-ratings across the sector. Drop #3: Second Lower High → Second Lower Low (Mid to Late February through Early March 2025) Several investment banks downgraded semiconductor stocks, including Nvidia, amid fears of a cyclical slowdown and oversupply risks in H2 2025. In early March, broader indices dropped due to hot inflation prints in February. Fed’s stance during testimony to Congress indicated a higher interest rate outlook. Reports emerged about delays in next-gen chip production due to yield issues at TSMC and logistics constraints, fueling investor anxiety. Renewed export control tightening and U.S.-China friction were again cited as major concerns earlier this year. These concerns were part of the bearish narrative during Nvidia’s downward structure, especially during Drop #1 and Drop #2 where investors began pricing in geopolitical and regulatory headwinds. Events & Economic catalysts to monitor (before buying heavy): Nvidia Earnings Q1 2025 Mid to Late May 2025 Why it matters: Forward guidance, Data Center/AI segment growth, margin updates, and China sales commentary will heavily impact sentiment and trend direction. U.S. CPI (Inflation) Reports April 10, 2025 (March CPI) Remember: Hot inflation = higher rate expectations → tech sector sell-off. Watch for YoY core CPI trends. U.S. Jobs Report (NFP) April 4, 2025 Keep in mind: Strong labor = sticky inflation = Fed hawkishness → higher discount rates on growth stocks. Semiconductor Industry Conferences ・NVIDIA GTC (GPU Technology Conference) – usually held Spring or Fall ・Semicon West 2025 – typically July Track the progress: Product launches, AI roadmaps, new partnerships, and forward tech strategy updates often revealed.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by fract
2
$NVDA H&S on Monthly...Linking previous short of NVDA. The right shoulder is technically not finished forming. However that trendline was tested not long ago.... will it hold? Who knows. First target would be ~$100. If this plays out there will likely be a larger mark down phase consisting of retail panic selling. This will push toward $80 with a possible shakeout near the low/mid $70s before a long term accumulation process begins by big money. Just because I am short on the stock does not mean I don't believe in the company or stock longer term. Have money on the sidelines to buy incase this plays out.
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by stevenxborer
2
Nvidia (NVDA) Share Price Continues Bearish TrendNvidia (NVDA) Share Price Continues Bearish Trend Earlier this month, our analysis of NVDA's share price led us to: → Establish a downward channel (marked in red). → Suggest that the lower boundary could act as support, which was confirmed (circled). On 13 March, we anticipated the median line of this channel might serve as resistance, and yesterday’s ~5% drop in NVDA’s share price (marked by a red arrow) aligns with this scenario. As a result, NVDA’s price has declined by approximately 17% since the start of 2025, despite being a market leader in 2024. Why Did Nvidia (NVDA) Shares Drop Yesterday? Market sentiment turned negative amid concerns that the Trump administration may soon impose previously delayed international trade tariffs. Additionally, the Financial Times reported that Chinese regulators are encouraging firms to adopt data centre chips that meet stringent environmental standards. This raises concerns that Nvidia’s H20 chip, despite complying with U.S. export controls, may not meet China’s environmental regulations. Investors seemingly viewed this as a bearish signal for Nvidia’s future sales in China. Technical Analysis of Nvidia’s Share Price Currently, NVDA’s price is encountering resistance at the bullish gap formed on 12 March, around $112.50. Given the broader market context, this setup could indicate an attempt by bears to resume the downtrend after a temporary rebound from oversold conditions. A consolidation pattern in the form of a narrowing triangle (marked in red) has also emerged. If market conditions remain challenging, bears may push NVDA’s price towards the psychologically significant $100 level. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by FXOpen
1
NVDIAgain...long at 111.43This is gonna be my 6th long idea on NVDA since Mid-December. Sorry if this is getting boring, but if it keeps working, why stop? It's not in a great pattern, but then again it wasn't the other 5 times, either. It has been in a downtrend since early December, but even stocks in downtrends don't have to go down in straight lines, and that's what I'm counting on here. There is some support semi-close by, too. It's a good company, and trading them in tough times (I think the last 6 weeks qualifies there, don't you?) gives me the best odds of making money. NVDA has never let me down - literally never. Sometimes it takes longer than others, but it always pays. I haven't updated my W/L record on it lately, but the 5 trades on the chart are the last 5 I've made and it was undefeated before all of them. You can go back and look at them if you desperately want to know - I know it's in at least one of those but I don't feel like going back and looking for the exact number right now. I know it's at least 100s to 0. Edit: I felt bad being lazy so I went and looked it up. It's 722-0, and that's a good enough reason for me to trade it today. So I'm long at 111.43, but I am making a little twist to my usual trade plan. I will be adding if it falls, but not using my usual methodology. It's a twist I've been working on for trading downtrending stocks. It's complicated, so I'll just update here whenever I add, and the adds will still be near the close when I make them. I will still use FPC (first profitable close) to exit any lot on the day it closes at any reasonable profit. As always - this is intended as "edutainment" and my perspective on what I am or would be doing, not a recommendation for you to buy or sell. Act accordingly and invest at your own risk. DYOR and only make investments that make good financial sense for you in your current situation.
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by redwingcoach
3
Nvidia - That's Officially The Brutal End!Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) is breaking all structure: Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻 Following previous cycles, Nvidia has been rallying for more than 2 years, creating an overall pump of approximately +1.000%. But now, everything is literally pointing to a significant towards the downside and with a potential drop of -30%, bears are totally taking over Nvidia now. Levels to watch: $70 Keep your long term vision, Philip (BasicTrading)
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by basictradingtv
57
NVIDIA Under Pressure: Bearish Storm IntensifiesFundamental and Technical Signals Suggest Potential for Deeper Corrections NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) is under significant pressure, mirroring the broader bearish sentiment gripping global equity markets. The semiconductor giant's shares have suffered a substantial 23% decline from their January peak at $153.13, illustrating vulnerability amid macroeconomic uncertainties and sector-specific headwinds. Fundamental Drivers Fueling NVDA's Decline Despite NVIDIA's long-term growth narrative fueled by its dominance in artificial intelligence (AI) chips, graphics processing units (GPUs), and data centre technologies, short-term headwinds are challenging the bullish sentiment. Rising interest rates, persistent inflationary pressures, and geopolitical tensions have undermined investor confidence, triggering broader risk aversion in technology stocks. Furthermore, weakening consumer electronics demand has adversely impacted GPU sales, affecting revenue projections in the gaming and consumer sectors. Heightened competition, particularly from AMD and Intel, coupled with regulatory scrutiny over NVIDIA's proposed mergers and acquisitions, has also raised investor anxiety. This combination of slowing revenue growth and market uncertainty significantly constrains upward momentum. Technical Breakdown Signals Further Weakness From a technical standpoint, NVIDIA's share price remains firmly entrenched in bearish territory, encountering strong resistance at the critical 124-131 zone on the weekly timeframe. The failure to reclaim this crucial zone underscores the dominance of bearish momentum, signalling potential further downside risks. After the decisive breakdown from the symmetric triangle pattern around the $142 mark in mid-February, sellers gained the upper hand. Since then, price movements have consistently formed lower highs, reinforcing the bearish outlook. The significance of the 124-131 zone, formerly strong support turned resistance, cannot be overstated—only a clear and sustained breach above this area would shift sentiment back toward recovery. Crucial Support Levels Under Threat Currently, NVIDIA is precariously supported by the 113-106 zone. Technical indicators highlight the vulnerability of this area, making it a pivotal threshold for short-term price action. Failure to maintain support here could catalyze another wave of selling pressure, accelerating the descent toward the next key support zone between $95 and $89. Investors must closely monitor these price dynamics. A breakdown through this level would intensify bearish momentum, potentially opening the doors for an even deeper pullback. Such an outcome would align with broader market conditions that remain unfavourable for growth stocks. Ultimate Downside Targets Should bearish momentum continue unabated and broader market conditions deteriorate further, the long-term technical landscape suggests that NVIDIA could test even lower levels. In the event of a prolonged bearish scenario, the ultimate downside target lies within the 78-60 price range. Such a scenario would represent a substantial correction and likely reflect broader market turmoil extending beyond the semiconductor sector. Strategic Investor Considerations Investors should remain vigilant given the precarious technical structure and challenging fundamental backdrop. Protective measures such as stop-loss orders, portfolio hedging strategies, and position sizing adjustments may be prudent at this juncture. Staying informed on upcoming earnings reports, macroeconomic developments, and shifts in Federal Reserve policy will be crucial to managing risk effectively. Conclusion NVIDIA's stock price is navigating treacherous waters, influenced by macroeconomic uncertainties and bearish technical signals. Downside risks will remain significant until a decisive break above the 124-131 resistance is achieved. Investors must remain prepared for the possibility of deeper corrections, especially if broader market sentiment deteriorates further. Vigilance and strategic risk management will be essential as we approach critical support tests in the weeks ahead.
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by Rotuma
3/20/25 - $nvda - Patient, but path to $10 tn (LONGER READ sry!)3/20/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:NVDA Patient, but path to $10 tn - as we reflect on this crack tape, i'd like to share a few thoughts here, hopefully keeping it a bit punchy and we can duke it out/ debate in the comments. - objectively, the level of HPC/ AI compute is accelerating up the S curve. - nvidia's customers are the most price inelastic buyers you could want in a recession. microsoft. tesla. amazon. nation states *cough*. these aren't BNPL customers ordering burritos and a side of GPU chips thru doordash. - NVIDIA's platform won. such that they don't screw the pooch and their 35k engineers all focused on a singular issue don't decide to go solve some unrelated market (/sarc bc we know Jensen's style), effectively there's no "rebuilding" NVIDIA. ASICs will eventually come, but they won't dominate. In the chip business, there's a reason each vertical tends toward 70... 80... 90% market share players. - the real issue here, when i run the math (and i've built out my own model tn to wrap my head around this all), is really *where* we are on this S-curve. the mkt is concerned about a few things, and actually, the macro/ risk assets and long-duration i.e. discount rate seem to be more important than fundamentals. that's a good thing, BUT, in the short-term it can really dislocate price. and price tells a story. and that story can distract. it can avert your attention. it can make you nervous (on the converse, fomo). so it's good to have a clear idea of what's going on here, which is why i underwent this exercise. - all-else equal, as beats, communication and sector dominance remain (and they don't need to be massive beats, just not misses that portend lower growth in the terminal), my estimates put NVDA's mkt cap close to 10 tn. - but at shy of $3 tn today, that 3x LIKELY will take 2-3 years to play out and will largely be driven by the short term climb of the S-curve, and more immediately driven by, again, terminal rates. - fair value today ex-beats but with lower terminal rates likely takes the stock toward $5 tn (and i'd expect this to be a reasonably year-end target) or a stock of $200. let's call that move 2/3 "macro" and 1/3 "fundamental" - and the remainder of the move toward doubling likely happens over the following 2 years because more data will need to be collected by the market to assess this dominance, cash generation etc. etc. - okay this isn't a punchy write up... at this pt. excuse me! - so what's the downside? again, there's a lot we can and should duke out in comments to shorten the conclusion here, but i'd suggest something closer to $2 tn for a variety of reasons. that's nearly 30% downside or a stock in the $80s. do we get there? no clue. but in this environment, we've seen how deepseek headlines, blackwell overheating rumors (which btw remain), asic announcements, chinese "competition" etc. etc. all affect the bid. and i'd suggest that a 30% downside for a potential 70% upside into year-end remains a great risk-reward here at $120 today. - my guess would be that long-term buyers accumulate at these levels and we probably get taken closer to the $130s... even $140s before this becomes more of a complicated equation. - that being said, it's a clear buy, IMO, at this price, in a YE context and especially in a multi-year context given downside to upside potential and the work i've put in here. truly a one-of-a-kind asset that has actually held it's own against BTC in the last 10 years (THE ONLY of any real market cap) TL;DR - still a great buy at $120 - downside below $100 and it's obvious. buying that fear, possibly on leverage in the $80s. - not using leverage ST in this environment - YE target of $200 - unfortunately more of a macro punching bag ST but fundamentals remain the meat of the 2-3 year move and so far, don't see any flaws. lmk what u think. V
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by VROCKSTAR
AAPL, NVDA, MSFT & XPS: High-Probability Trade Setups This WeekWeekly Trade Radar & Market Outlook This week, my focus is on AAPL, NVDA, MSFT, and XPS. There could be a potential retest of the 200 SMA with AAPL and MSFT, offering opportunities for well-structured trades. NVDA looks weak and has already tested the 200 SMA, making it a candidate for further downside potential or a short-term bounce. Additionally, Chinese developments in AI chip production remain a factor that could influence price action, particularly with NVDA. Staying aware of these key levels and macro developments is crucial for trade execution. 📚 Trading Plan: Ichimoku & 200 SMA Monthly Options Strategy** 📌 Strategy Objective This strategy aims to capitalize on **high-probability trend-following setups** by using the **Ichimoku Cloud and 200 SMA** for confirmation while trading **monthly options contracts** to minimize time decay risks. 📀 Trading Rules ✅ 1. Entry Timing Rules (Your 3 Golden Rules)** 🚫 **No trading on Mondays** (Avoid weekend gaps & false breakouts). 🚫 **No trading on Fridays** (Avoid weekend time decay & volatility). ⏳ **No trades before the first 15-minute candle closes** (Avoid market noise). 📊 Setup & Trade Criteria 🔹 2. Trend Confirmation Using Ichimoku & 200 SMA Bullish (Call Trade) Criteria: ✅ **Price is above the 200 SMA** (bullish bias). ✅ **Price is above the Ichimoku Cloud** (strong uptrend). ✅ **Tenkan-sen is above Kijun-sen** (momentum confirmation). ✅ **Chikou Span is above price from 26 candles ago** (historical trend alignment). ✅ **Future Cloud is green** (trend continuation signal). Bearish (Put Trade) Criteria: ✅ **Price is below the 200 SMA** (bearish bias). ✅ **Price is below the Ichimoku Cloud** (strong downtrend). ✅ **Tenkan-sen is below Kijun-sen** (momentum confirmation). ✅ **Chikou Span is below price from 26 candles ago** (historical trend alignment). ✅ **Future Cloud is red** (trend continuation signal). 🔹 3. Entry Triggers (After First 15-Min Candle Closes)** **Bullish (Call Trade) Entry:** - Price pulls back to **Kijun-sen** and holds support, then starts to bounce. - OR price **breaks above the Ichimoku Cloud** and holds. - ✅ Enter **Call contract (monthly expiration)**. **Bearish (Put Trade) Entry:** - Price pulls back to **Kijun-sen**, rejects resistance, and starts falling. - OR price **breaks below the Ichimoku Cloud** and holds. - ✅ Enter **Put contract (monthly expiration)**. 🔹 4. Selecting the Right Option Contract ✅ Monthly expiration contract (third Friday of the month). ✅ 30-60 days to expiry (avoid rapid theta decay). ✅ Strike Price: - **ATM (At-The-Money) or slightly ITM (In-The-Money)**. - Delta between **0.55 – 0.70** for balance between premium & movement. ✅ Liquidity Criteria: - **Open Interest > 1,000** for easy fills. - **Tight bid-ask spread** (<$0.10 on liquid stocks). 🎯 Risk Management & Trade Management** 🔹 5. Stop Loss & Take Profit Rules** Stop Loss (SL): 🔴 For Calls: Below the Kijun-sen or most recent swing low. 🔴 For Puts: Above the Kijun-sen or most recent swing high. Take Profit (TP): ✅ First Target: At the opposite edge of the Ichimoku Cloud. ✅ Second Target: Key support/resistance level based on price action. ✅ If profit reaches 70-80% max potential, close early** to avoid theta decay. --- 🔹 6. Trade Adjustments** 🔄 Rolling:If trade is profitable near expiry but hasn’t hit full target, roll to next monthly contract. 🔄 Cutting Losses: Exit early if price **closes inside the Ichimoku Cloud** (loss of trend strength). 📊 Trade Example: Bullish Call Play** - Stock:** AAPL - Current Price:** $190 - Bias: Price is above 200 SMA and Ichimoku Cloud - Entry Trigger:** Price pulls back to Kijun-sen and bounces - Option Contract: - Expiry: **Next monthly contract (e.g., July 19 expiration)** - Strike: **$190 ATM Call** - Delta: **0.60** - Bid/Ask Spread: **$2.00 / $2.05** - Entry Price: $2.05 - Stop Loss: Below Kijun-sen (~$187) - Take Profit: - First TP at $195 (Cloud resistance) - Final TP at $200 key resistance 🔹 7. Why This Strategy Works?** ✅ **Avoids weak setups by following strict entry rules**. ✅ **Uses monthly contracts to avoid rapid time decay**. ✅ **Combines trend-following confirmation from Ichimoku & 200 SMA**. ✅ **Ensures liquidity & better risk management with ATM/ITM options**. 📀 Final Notes 🔹 Only trade **Tuesday to Thursday** to avoid low-probability days. 🔹 Wait for **first 15-minute candle to close** before entering. 🔹 Stick to **monthly contracts** for better theta control. 🔹 **Follow trend confirmation rules strictly**—no guessing. Turning a Small Trading Account into a Side Hustle for Financial Freedom Imagine having a skill that allows you to generate income from anywhere, with nothing more than your phone, iPad, or laptop. No need for an expensive setup, no need for hours glued to a screen, and no need to risk everything on a single trade. This is the power of trading options with a small account—starting with as little as $500 and scaling up over time to create financial security, eliminate debt, and build leverage for larger investments. Weekly Trade Radar & Market Outlook This week, my focus is on AAPL, NVDA, MSFT, and XPS. There could be a potential retest of the 200 SMA with AAPL and MSFT, offering opportunities for well-structured trades. NVDA looks weak and has already tested the 200 SMA, making it a candidate for further downside potential or a short-term bounce. Additionally, Chinese developments in AI chip production remain a factor that could influence price action, particularly with NVDA. Staying aware of these key levels and macro developments is crucial for trade execution. Trading Method: Ichimoku Cloud & 200 SMA Strategy For trade setups, I rely on a combination of the Ichimoku Cloud and the 200 SMA to confirm entries and exits. This system provides a structured approach to trading by identifying trend direction, support and resistance levels, and potential breakouts. Identify the Trend – The 200 SMA serves as the key trend indicator. If price is above, we look for long opportunities; if below, short setups take priority. Ichimoku Confirmation – Price action should align with the cloud structure: Bullish trades: Price above the cloud with strong momentum. Bearish trades: Price below the cloud with confirmation of weakness. Entry Timing – Trades are entered after the first 15-minute candle closes to avoid early market volatility. No trades on Mondays or Fridays to maintain consistency and avoid false breakouts. Monthly Options Contracts – Focusing on monthly expirations allows for strategic entries with enough time for price movements to develop. Risk Management – Stop losses are set just below key Ichimoku or 200 SMA levels, ensuring a disciplined risk-reward ratio. How This Can Work as a Side Hustle Many people look for side hustles to supplement their income, but most involve long hours, additional expenses, or require significant effort to scale. Trading options, however, offers: ✅ Minimal time commitment – With the right plan, you spend less than an hour per day analyzing and placing trades. ✅ Low startup cost – Start with as little as $500 and build from there. ✅ No physical inventory or overhead – You don’t need to buy and store products. ✅ Scalability – As your account grows, you can increase contract size and compound gains. ✅ Financial freedom potential – The profits from consistent, disciplined trading can be used to pay off debt, invest, or build long-term wealth. The Power of Leverage: Using Trading to Build Wealth The ultimate goal of trading isn’t just to make a little extra cash—it’s to create financial leverage. Here’s how smart traders use small account growth to create lasting financial success: 1️⃣ Get Out of Debt – Use profits to pay off credit cards, student loans, or other financial burdens. Imagine the freedom of being debt-free. 2️⃣ Reinvest in Larger Opportunities – Once your small account grows, you can scale up your trades, fund larger investments, or even start a business. 3️⃣ Build a Safety Net – Having extra cash flow from trading can serve as an emergency fund, helping you navigate life’s unexpected challenges. 4️⃣ Create a Path to Full-Time Trading – For those who love the process, this side hustle can evolve into a primary source of income over time. It’s About Discipline, Not Just Trading The key to successful trading isn’t the market—it’s you. Many traders fail because they lack the discipline to follow a system. This approach isn’t just about making money; it’s about becoming the kind of person who can execute a plan without emotion, without impulsiveness, and without shortcuts. Success in trading mirrors success in life: patience, discipline, and consistency always win. Getting Started – No Excuses You don’t need a fancy setup. You don’t need to be a finance expert. You just need a phone, iPad, or laptop, a brokerage account (I use Robinhood for its simplicity), and a commitment to mastering a system that works. If you’re looking for a low-stress, high-reward way to build financial security, trading options with a small account might be the perfect opportunity. It’s time to take control of your future—one trade at a time.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by invinoveritas7671
NVDA breaking supportSince June of last year NASDAQ:NVDA has been developing a $113 support level. Today we saw a retest of this level with strong momentum in accordance with a weakening market. I believe the Stock will break this level and continue down to its next significant support level at $96. Technically, the stock is bouncing off of a return to its 21 EMA below the 50 EMA which would have been the optimal entry point on this trade. Today also had a cross below the 14-day SMA in RSI. Finally, looking at the technical indicators provided by Trading View the stock is showing sell or neutral signals across all indicators except for 1.
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by Notbadchad